2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

[rsox]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

Surprises:
Cincinnati Reds,
If Aaron Harang rebounds with all of the good young arms the Reds have they will have a staff that can rack up a ton of strikeouts. Even though they could use a proven power bat i think the 3-7 of Bruce/Phillips/Dickerson/Encarnacion/Votto could put up some solid offensive numbers.

Kansas City Royals,
The AL Centeral is wide open and the Royals have a chance to be this years Rays. The pitching staff may not be that bad, and Mike Jacobs should rake the powers numbers in the AL which should help Jose Guillen as well. The young hitters improved last year and should be better this year.

Disappointments:
Milwaukee Brewers,
Unfortunately i think the Brewers window of oppertuinity closed at the end of their playoff loss to the Phillies. No C.C. Sabathia, no Ben Sheets, Braden Looper is decent but he is not a staff ace. The team needs Yovanni Gallardo to take over as staff ace and the will need a to score a ton of runs to compete.

The Los Angeles Dodgers,
Patch work pitching staff and if they do not re-sign Manny Ramirez they will struggle to score more runs than the Padres.

[ehh]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

Nah...they can't top the historic collapse by the Mets in 2007. The Yankess have been disappointing, but that Mets collapse trumps NYY payroll ineptitude.

Well, you're a Phillies fan so I'm sure you're going to think the Mets have been the most disappointing.

Outside of the '07 collapse the Mets have pretty much finished where they should have. They were one game away from the Series in '06 and were certainly no lock to make the post season last year IMO, way too many bullpen and OF issues.

The Yankees consistently have the best team on paper and haven't won a postseason series since the 2004 ALDS.

[SpacemanSpiff]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

Surprises:
Everyone's been picking them so far and while I don't think they are a surefire team, I do see a lot to like in the Cincinnati Reds. May have just enough pitching to make a pretty good run but I don't expect them to quite make the playoffs.

Along the same lines, I think the Texas Rangers can really surprise people this year. They really have a lot to like on offense and if they just catch lightning with a couple of pitchers it may be enough to contend for a weaker AL West.

Disappointments:
The Rays will still be a fine team next year but they may disappoint in terms of making the playoffs. They got extremely lucky with their rotation's health last year and many guys in their bullpen had career years. Still don't like their lack of a dominant closer.

Angels lost a big bat in Teixeira not to mention his great glove. Bobby Abreu is a fine offensive player but his age has to be a little worrisome and his fear of the walls makes him give back a lot of the runs he creates on offense through his lack of defense. 100 wins last year, maybe missing the playoffs this year.

[JBH3]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

Well, you're a Phillies fan so I'm sure you're going to think the Mets have been the most disappointing.

Outside of the '07 collapse the Mets have pretty much finished where they should have. They were one game away from the Series in '06 and were certainly no lock to make the post season last year IMO, way too many bullpen and OF issues.

The Yankees consistently have the best team on paper and haven't won a postseason series since the 2004 ALDS.

Yea so no one was expecting HUGE things from NY after they traded for Johan...yea...ok.

When Wagner went down it pretty much sealed your fate, but lets not sit here act as if no one had considered the Mets as an NL favorite - especially after the Johan trade.

[ckarlic]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

Surprise Teams:

Rangers
Oakland A's

Dissapointment:

Red Sox
Phillies

[wwharton]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

If the Orioles can win 75 games and have a staff ERA under 7. I would be pleasantly surprised. They have no pitching after Guthrie and Sherrell.

I'm disappointed you don't know more about the O's living in the area. With Sherrell, Baez and Ray they've got an adequate 7-8-9th inning rotation. Starters of Guthrie, Hill (got him from the Cubs) and Uehara (promising pitcher from Japan) will be the top of the rotation with a good 3 or 4 very promising guys in the minors battling to round out the last two spots. They also made some great pick ups to improve their defense, also helping pitching. Their staff era should be in the top half of the AL as a minimum... maybe top 3rd.

The O's problem is that they're very young and in the toughest division in baseball. They've made some nice moves though... they're going to be better than many expect. Bad news is that still probably puts them in a battle for last place in the AL East.

[JBH3]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

I'm disappointed you don't know more about the O's living in the area. With Sherrell, Baez and Ray they've got an adequate 7-8-9th inning rotation. Starters of Guthrie, Hill (got him from the Cubs) and Uehara (promising pitcher from Japan) will be the top of the rotation with a good 3 or 4 very promising guys in the minors battling to round out the last two spots. They also made some great pick ups to improve their defense, also helping pitching. Their staff era should be in the top half of the AL as a minimum... maybe top 3rd.

The O's problem is that they're very young and in the toughest division in baseball. They've made some nice moves though... they're going to be better than many expect. Bad news is that still probably puts them in a battle for last place in the AL East.

I like the O's...They've always been my favorite American League team w/ Cal Ripken being one of my all-time favortie players.

Markakis & Brian Roberts, are solid, and Adam Jones has already shown a lot of promise. Problem is you don't know what to expect from Aubrey Huff who had a BIG year for Baltimore last year, Melvin Mora (another 20+HRs 100 RBIs ? ), Felix Pie, and a lot is being pinned on Matt Wieters.

Uber utility man Ty Wiggington was a solid addition, and Ryan Freel is another good one too who could start in the OF should Pie struggle - which is likely.

Their rotation is very much a ... ?

Its Guthrie and then...A Japanese pitcher who has yet to prove himself in the majors (and isn't coming as the next Dice K), Rich Hill struggled last year at the MLB level, Radhames Liz is a flame thrower but has control issues - much like another ex-Oriole who's playing for DC now.

They've got some strong arms in the pen though. Jim Johnson and Sarfate have cannons. If Chris Ray has fully recovered from Tommy John then he is a setup man. As for Sherril lets just hope he comes back as the 1st half version, and sustains that over the course of the season. Because his 2nd half was baaad.

The Orioles could definitely be a surprise team. They can't disappoint any more than they did last year, and they haven't added some high-caliber player to get everyone's hopes up.

Only place than can go is up. Albeit, it probably won't be very far up.

[wwharton]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

You've restored my faith in your O's knowledge.

The thing is disappointment is a sliding scale. I wouldn't say they disappointed last year. They did about what I, and everyone else expected them to. I think many expect them to do the same this year but they've made a lot of under the radar moves that should make them better than expected. Doesn't mean they'll make the playoffs but I think they'll be better than expected.

Weiters will start in the minors and I won't be mad if he stays there until September to be honest... this team is building for the future. Both Markakis and Jones have ALOT of room to grow still. Who knows if either or both will ever reach their potential but they both have high ceilings... along with some of the pitchers.

Keep in mind, just a couple of years ago the O's had the roid scandal with Palmiero, Tejada was their best offensive player and Bedard was their best pitcher and they were a below average team. Baseball isn't like football where you can just turn a team around in a year. Hell it's been a looooooong time since the Mussina led all star team that was a yearly contender. The moves they've made over the last 2/3 years have been great and I think this year we'll start seeing results. Again, not enough to overtake the Yanks, Sox or Rays (possibly even Jays) but noticeable. They'll be fun to watch.

[JBH3]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

You've restored my faith in your O's knowledge.

The thing is disappointment is a sliding scale. I wouldn't say they disappointed last year. They did about what I, and everyone else expected them to. I think many expect them to do the same this year but they've made a lot of under the radar moves that should make them better than expected. Doesn't mean they'll make the playoffs but I think they'll be better than expected.

Weiters will start in the minors and I won't be mad if he stays there until September to be honest... this team is building for the future. Both Markakis and Jones have ALOT of room to grow still. Who knows if either or both will ever reach their potential but they both have high ceilings... along with some of the pitchers.

Keep in mind, just a couple of years ago the O's had the roid scandal with Palmiero, Tejada was their best offensive player and Bedard was their best pitcher and they were a below average team. Baseball isn't like football where you can just turn a team around in a year. Hell it's been a looooooong time since the Mussina led all star team that was a yearly contender. The moves they've made over the last 2/3 years have been great and I think this year we'll start seeing results. Again, not enough to overtake the Yanks, Sox or Rays (possibly even Jays) but noticeable. They'll be fun to watch.

They were fun to watch last year, and other than Phillies/Nats games are the only reason I watch MASN.

[ehh]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

When Wagner went down it pretty much sealed your fate, but lets not sit here act as if no one had considered the Mets as an NL favorite - especially after the Johan trade.

My fate? I'm a huge Yankee fan dude.

[slickdtc]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

You've restored my faith in your O's knowledge.

The thing is disappointment is a sliding scale. I wouldn't say they disappointed last year. They did about what I, and everyone else expected them to. I think many expect them to do the same this year but they've made a lot of under the radar moves that should make them better than expected. Doesn't mean they'll make the playoffs but I think they'll be better than expected.

Weiters will start in the minors and I won't be mad if he stays there until September to be honest... this team is building for the future. Both Markakis and Jones have ALOT of room to grow still. Who knows if either or both will ever reach their potential but they both have high ceilings... along with some of the pitchers.

Keep in mind, just a couple of years ago the O's had the roid scandal with Palmiero, Tejada was their best offensive player and Bedard was their best pitcher and they were a below average team. Baseball isn't like football where you can just turn a team around in a year. Hell it's been a looooooong time since the Mussina led all star team that was a yearly contender. The moves they've made over the last 2/3 years have been great and I think this year we'll start seeing results. Again, not enough to overtake the Yanks, Sox or Rays (possibly even Jays) but noticeable. They'll be fun to watch.

They were right around .500 at the trade deadline last year, but obviously tailed off badly at the end of the year. So they have it in them to be a decent ballclub but like everyone is saying, not playoff time yet in Baltimore being in the AL East.

[JBH3]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

My fate? I'm a huge Yankee fan dude.

oooooohhhhh sorry....

[jfsolo]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

I'm stunned to see so many folks talking up the Reds. I do see the potential with the pitching staff, but I expect the offense to really struggle, as their going to be too reliant on the long ball.

When not one player in your lineup seems capable of putting up a .375 OBP, that is a portent of significant offensive woes.

[theaub]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

Surprise: Baltimore

They've been covered already, but that offense is incredibly impressive. BP has them finishing 3rd in runs scored, and that seems like an accurate prediction. The pitching is a little meh, but Guthrie is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, Rich Hill is going to have a comeback year, and Hendrickson should eat up some innings. I'm not big on the Japanese guy or some other the other guys they picked up (notably Pauley and Parrish), but their rotation should be better than last year. With Ray/Baez returning from injury, they have an adeuqate bullpen (although the AL East has some ****ing amazing bullpens, especially Toronto ). That being said, I wouldn'nt be surprised if the Orioles finish ahead of the Blue Jays this year. At the very least, I see 75 wins.

Disappointment: New York (AL)

Same division! SPTO sort of pointed out some of the issues, but I really don't like the pitching here. Sabathia has all signs pointing to some arm troubles after the Brewers blew him out. Burnett will not be healthy until the final year of his deal. Wang should be dependable, but its really tough to see what to expect from Pettitte/Hughes/Joba etc. Unfortunately the Yanks could have the same pitching issues that have plauged them the past couple years, where they go into July/August with two no-names in the rotation. The hitting should be there, but everyone's getting older (outside of Tex lol), and well, who knows if A-Rod starts to crack a bit. I still see them winning 87-90 games, but that's not good enough for a trip to October, and heads will roll if that happens.

[wwharton]

Re: 2009: Teams to Disappoint and Surprise?

They were fun to watch last year, and other than Phillies/Nats games are the only reason I watch MASN.

Even if they're not fun to watch, is there another reason to watch MASN? ACC basketball on Sunday nights I guess.

They were right around .500 at the trade deadline last year, but obviously tailed off badly at the end of the year. So they have it in them to be a decent ballclub but like everyone is saying, not playoff time yet in Baltimore being in the AL East.

Yeah, but looking at the entire season they were about what was expected... so they were fun to watch for half a season, I guess. There was no way they were going to maintain it though. Part of it was just other teams struggling more b/c of injuries or getting in the groove too. This year I think it'll be legit. Even if the record isn't much better, I think I'll feel more comfortable with what I'm actually seeing, win or lose, than last year.

Problem with the AL East is I can't imagine when they'll be in the playoff hunt. TB is very good... should be better than last year, Toronto's pitching staff will keep them competitive for a long time and one or two pieces will at least have them sniffing the top teams and we know how the Yanks and Sox spend money. I say they bring the Brewers back to the AL and let the O's head over to the NL for a while so they can compete (just kidding, of course... I'd be pretty pissed if the O's were sent to the NL).