Re: MLB.com Beat the Streak

[Blzer]

Re: MLB.com Beat the Streak

I know I'm not the only one hooked on this game. Anybody who played this year or will be playing next year, what were your highest streaks and what strategy (if any) do you use?

Find the best #2 hitters in the MLB (ones who get pitched to and have success doing it, like Scutaro and a healthy Jeter) and pick them every other day. Find "randoms" and stars in between those days.

Seems to be the best approach at least. You want somebody who will bat often, not get walked much, have success, and you need some element of dependency (in other words, can't pick the same guy every time because he's bound to go hitless someday... otherwise they'd break Joe D's record at the same time).

Also, find somebody who's currently hot. If they're on a 5-15 game hit streak, I'd look toward them. Any more than that and pressure builds where they probably swing at pitches they shouldn't.

Perhaps I'm overanalyzing this. But then again, no one has yet cracked the pattern that gets you the money, so you might as well give other ideas a shot.

[elTodd]

Re: MLB.com Beat the Streak

Find the best #2 hitters in the MLB (ones who get pitched to and have success doing it, like Scutaro and a healthy Jeter) and pick them every other day. Find "randoms" and stars in between those days.

Seems to be the best approach at least. You want somebody who will bat often, not get walked much, have success, and you need some element of dependency (in other words, can't pick the same guy every time because he's bound to go hitless someday... otherwise they'd break Joe D's record at the same time).

Also, find somebody who's currently hot. If they're on a 5-15 game hit streak, I'd look toward them. Any more than that and pressure builds where they probably swing at pitches they shouldn't.

Perhaps I'm overanalyzing this. But then again, no one has yet cracked the pattern that gets you the money, so you might as well give other ideas a shot.

You keep mentioning a "pattern", but there isn't one. The odds are completely stacked against you. Lets look at the facts here. A successful baseball player gets a hit 3 out of 10 at-bats. No matter who you pick. No matter how "hot" they are. You still have just around a 30% chance of success. Its all luck. Nothing more to it than that.

[Blzer]

Re: MLB.com Beat the Streak

You keep mentioning a "pattern", but there isn't one. The odds are completely stacked against you. Lets look at the facts here. A successful baseball player gets a hit 3 out of 10 at-bats. No matter who you pick. No matter how "hot" they are. You still have just around a 30% chance of success. Its all luck. Nothing more to it than that.

I know, when I say "pattern" I truly mean complete randomness. Some people believe you're just as lucky picking any starter out there as you are picking top premier hitters. I think it's better to work with a stable algorithm, yet nobody has landed on one that has worked perfectly for them.

I'm just trying to give a promising hitting streak to him is all. Once you're "promising," the rest is purely luck.

[elTodd]

Re: MLB.com Beat the Streak

I know, when I say "pattern" I truly mean complete randomness. Some people believe you're just as lucky picking any starter out there as you are picking top premier hitters. I think it's better to work with a stable algorithm, yet nobody has landed on one that has worked perfectly for them.

I'm just trying to give a promising hitting streak to him is all. Once you're "promising," the rest is purely luck.

But that's the thing though. It's all pure luck anyways. You could spend hours looking at lifetime match-ups between hitters and the opposing starter that day, see who's "hot", see who hits well in a particular park, etc. None of that really matters. It's a complete roll of the dice. That's the beauty of baseball.

Of course it makes sense to pick the best players each day. Statistically they're more likely to get a hit over the course of an entire season. But how many times have you picked Miguel Cabrera and he's had an 0fer, while Brendan Ryan goes 2-3? As you said, it is purely luck.

[Blzer]

Re: MLB.com Beat the Streak

It is pure luck... either of you guys get a good streak going this year?

Personally, I forgot about it. I'll have to re-remind myself to set these things.

And yes, I know that it's all "luck," but then again so is baseball (to some extents). I can't imagine that every hit a guy collects was done with the intention of placing the ball on the field exactly where they did. For instance, I always just wanted to hit a line drive... sometimes it worked, and sometimes when it did it was a solid hit. Sometimes it wasn't though, and less hits came from those results.

I've always wondered if there is a true law of averages in MLB that prevents somebody from actually hitting .500, if that makes sense.