All Star Thread

[Scottdau]

Re: All Star Thread

Who averages 17 wins a year?

greg Maddux was close. What was his WHIP?

Bad example he is stud!

[jth1331]

Re: All Star Thread

As for Maqruis, his ERA is great for a Colorado pitcher. And people also don't understand that pitching at Coors will raise your ERA at home, and away. Pitches break differently, and a pitcher has to get used to that and its difficult, which is why Rockies hitters often have such drastic splits in home/away because it is so different at home compared to away.

Personally, I think Howard should've been left off for now and another OF put in, like Matt Kemp. Surprised Hunter Pence made it over Kemp to be honest.

AL side, talking about Branyan not making it and 4th in OPS. Well, the other 3 1B were ranked 1st, 3rd and 7th in OPS, and I would take each one of them over Branyan.
I feel Millwood is deserving of a spot, you can't just look at stats and say "oh, he was just lucky and got great defense, he's not an All Star."

[BunnyHardaway]

Re: All Star Thread

I long for the day the O's get more than one person in, but nonetheless congrats to AJ.

[Coug00]

Re: All Star Thread

AL side, talking about Branyan not making it and 4th in OPS. Well, the other 3 1B were ranked 1st, 3rd and 7th in OPS, and I would take each one of them over Branyan.

Which is why I said I'm not surprised he wasn't elected. Since he can play multiple infield positions I'm surprised he's not eligible for the last fan vote.

I feel Millwood is deserving of a spot, you can't just look at stats and say "oh, he was just lucky and got great defense, he's not an All Star."

Why can't you?

In your opinion, without using statistics, since they're not allowed, why does Millwood deserve to be an All-Star? What is he doing this year better than the Kevin Millwood of the last 5 years?

Using statistics, I can look at his K rates, BB rates, Hit Ball %'s and see nothing has changed for the better. I then look at his LOB% and see its about 16% higher than his career average with Texas. I can also see the defense behind him has improved immensely.

2008 - Last in Fielding, Last in RA
2009 - 9th in Fielding, 13th in RA

Think there's a correlation between the Texas defense improving and the across the board improvement of their pitching staff? Think there's a correlation with Millwood's success? Think its normal for a guy pitching no better than he always has to suddenly be able to keep 84% of baserunners from scoring?

That's improved defense and luck in my book.

[Ewing]

Re: All Star Thread

This was my face when I read Ryan Howard was selected as a reserve while Adam Dunn didn't even make the vote-in list:

[Ewing]

Re: All Star Thread

I think I will take a pitcher that average 17 wins a year over a pitcher that has a WHIP of .80, but only averages over 12 wins a year.

When did we let Bill Bavasi register on this board? I WANT ANSWERS

[jth1331]

Re: All Star Thread

Why can't you?

In your opinion, without using statistics, since they're not allowed, why does Millwood deserve to be an All-Star? What is he doing this year better than the Kevin Millwood of the last 5 years?

Using statistics, I can look at his K rates, BB rates, Hit Ball %'s and see nothing has changed for the better. I then look at his LOB% and see its about 16% higher than his career average with Texas. I can also see the defense behind him has improved immensely.

2008 - Last in Fielding, Last in RA
2009 - 9th in Fielding, 13th in RA

Think there's a correlation between the Texas defense improving and the across the board improvement of their pitching staff? Think there's a correlation with Millwood's success? Think its normal for a guy pitching no better than he always has to suddenly be able to keep 84% of baserunners from scoring?

That's improved defense and luck in my book.

Because all you are doing is looking at numbers with random variables, instead of seeing how the guy actually pitches. You can't just say Millwood doesn't deserve because he's just lucky and has an improved defense if you have never seen him pitch a game this year.

[Coug00]

Re: All Star Thread

Because all you are doing is looking at numbers with random variables, instead of seeing how the guy actually pitches. You can't just say Millwood doesn't deserve because he's just lucky and has an improved defense if you have never seen him pitch a game this year.

If we were talking a 5 game stretch and I haven't watched Millwood at all this season I'd agree. When a half season sample size of K rates, BB rates, batted balls rates, pitch effectiveness, fielding-independent pitching ERA match nearly identically to what he has done throughout his entire career, I'd say the statistical variance is extremely small. There is tangible evidence that Millwood hasn't changed. By using archaic means to measure a pitcher (ERA - speaking of too many random variables) you'd think he was a Cy Young candidate.

You've done nothing but say I'm wrong w/o providing any insight as to why Millwood is different. Why is he different this season?

[cubsfan203]

Re: All Star Thread

If we were talking a 5 game stretch and I haven't watched Millwood at all this season I'd agree. When a half season sample size of K rates, BB rates, batted balls rates, pitch effectiveness, fielding-independent pitching ERA match nearly identically to what he has done throughout his entire career, I'd say the statistical variance is extremely small. There is tangible evidence that Millwood hasn't changed. By using archaic means to measure a pitcher (ERA - speaking of too many random variables) you'd think he was a Cy Young candidate.

You've done nothing but say I'm wrong w/o providing any insight as to why Millwood is different. Why is he different this season?

It's called WATCHING him pitch. I've watched him since he's been in Texas and he has never looked better than he has this season.

If you want to look at stats though, compare his ERA, WHIP, BAA, whatever in the last 3 seasons and try to tell me it's only luck and defense that cause those differences. Fielding only does so much for you, if you can't locate your pitches defense isn't going to help you at all. Millwood's work ethic is what caused this change, not luck. Had Mr. Know it all ESPN guy watched a game on Fox at all this year when Millwood has pitched he would have heard about it, but he hasn't so he wants to blame it on luck.

[SPTO]

Re: All Star Thread

Guess 19 HR's and 51 RBI's don't matter for Kinsler....

I'm sure this may have been addressed but Hill's line of

.339 obp .503 slg .299 avg

20 HRs 50 RBI and 180 total bases

is nothing to sneeze at especially from the 2 hole.

[snepp]

Re: All Star Thread

If you want to look at stats though, compare his ERA, WHIP, BAA, whatever in the last 3 seasons and try to tell me it's only luck and defense that cause those differences.

You won't look at any statistic that actually tell you something meaningful, but you're willing to use a bunch that dont?

[pfunk880]

Re: All Star Thread

You won't look at any statistic that actually tell you something meaningful, but you're willing to use a bunch that dont?

I was thinking the same thing.

It's an unwinnable argument.

[Coug00]

Re: All Star Thread

It's called WATCHING him pitch. I've watched him since he's been in Texas and he has never looked better than he has this season.

If you want to look at stats though, compare his ERA, WHIP, BAA, whatever in the last 3 seasons and try to tell me it's only luck and defense that cause those differences. Fielding only does so much for you, if you can't locate your pitches defense isn't going to help you at all. Millwood's work ethic is what caused this change, not luck. Had Mr. Know it all ESPN guy watched a game on Fox at all this year when Millwood has pitched he would have heard about it, but he hasn't so he wants to blame it on luck.

I hate it when people downplay the importance of defense in baseball. Baseball defense is probably the most overlooked and underestimated portion of a game in American sports. Great defense in basketball and football is recognized as game changers. Great defense in baseball is highly ignored and usually credited to the pitcher. A baseball pitcher can control 2 things. Throw strikes and throw balls. The rest is up to his defense. Millwood is throwing less strikes (and striking out less) and more balls (and walking more) than ever before.

So what's the difference in him besides "work ethic"? The biggest difference from his performance that I see is that he's getting about 2.5% more swinging strikes a game. I certainly don't think 2-3 swinging strikes a game makes that large of a difference in runs allowed. So what is the difference if its not defense and luck? And what is the difference in the rest of the entire Rangers staff improving if its not the defense?

[cubsfan203]

Re: All Star Thread

I hate it when people downplay the importance of defense in baseball. Baseball defense is probably the most overlooked and underestimated portion of a game in American sports. Great defense in basketball and football is recognized as game changers. Great defense in baseball is highly ignored and usually credited to the pitcher. A baseball pitcher can control 2 things. Throw strikes and throw balls. The rest is up to his defense. Millwood is throwing less strikes (and striking out less) and more balls (and walking more) than ever before.

So what's the difference in him besides "work ethic"? The biggest difference from his performance that I see is that he's getting about 2.5% more swinging strikes a game. I certainly don't think 2-3 swinging strikes a game makes that large of a difference in runs allowed. So what is the difference if its not defense and luck? And what is the difference in the rest of the entire Rangers staff improving if its not the defense?

Why don't you ask the man himself what the reason for his success this year is? His reason is by far better than any that I've heard you or your ESPN source say. It's called actually getting in shape for once and dropping the booze. A combination of those two things can help anyone be more succesful, and it certainly could help a pitcher improve as much as he has this season.

Too bad there's no statistics for those two things, then we'd be set.

[Coug00]

Re: All Star Thread

Why don't you ask the man himself what the reason for his success this year is? His reason is by far better than any that I've heard you or your ESPN source say. It's called actually getting in shape for once and dropping the booze. A combination of those two things can help anyone be more succesful, and it certainly could help a pitcher improve as much as he has this season.

Too bad there's no statistics for those two things, then we'd be set.

So you really don't know other than 8-5 and a 2.80 ERA.

Read this. Its a Rangers fan's opinion (who is a writer on LoneStarBall.com) on the subject.

http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/7/3/937068/kevin-millwood-rob-neyer-evan