Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

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  • Hammerhunker
    MVP
    • Mar 2003
    • 3009

    #1

    Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

    I recently read an article in the Sporting News Today by Chris Bahr The Most Overrated/Insignificant Stat in Baseball. Chris Bahr’s opinion is that the strikeout is the most overrated/insignificant stat in baseball. Chris Bahr’s argument as such is far from convincing, lacking serious support.

    His poster boy for “strikeouts-ain’t-a-big-deal,” is Mark Reynolds. Mark Reynolds record setting 206 strikeouts (thus far) are what my great high-school baseball coach called, “one-man outs.” You cannot sustain consistent offensive production with a player striking out that many times…proof; look at the D-backs’ record (66-88 through September 25<SUP>th</SUP>). Chris Bahr argues that his strikeouts are not that big of deal when considering the offense that he produces when he doesn’t strikeout.

    Now, let’s look at Mark Reynolds and his strikeouts. No stat is available, at least I don’t know if there is, that shows how many runners were in scoring position when one of his strikeouts occurred. That would be an interesting stat to see. Let’s say, for conservative sake, he stuck out a third amount less if he would have taken a more conservative approach at the plate. That would be 62 more times he would have gotten out of the “one-man out” situation and put the pressure on the defense to either field a groundball or flyball, or just getting a base hit or extra-base hit. Let’s say of those 62 at-bats a third of those were with men in scoring position. 20 at-bats with the opportunity with at least 20 more rbi or in that neighborhood. Heck, he is hitting a homerun every 13 at-bats. Now you are looking at Mark Reynolds hitting at least the 120 rbi mark.

    This is a conservative number, this number may be higher, and now he is in the Prince Fielder (131 strikeouts with nearly the same at-bats) neighborhood in rbi. Maybe those 20+ rbi help win 10-15 more ballgames for this D-backs team, and maybe they are in post-season contention instead of playing spoiler.

    Huh, I think I would take that Mark Reynolds instead of the Mr. K version.

    What do you think is the most overrated or insignificant stat in baseball, or not, such as the case with the strikeout?
    Last edited by Hammerhunker; 09-26-2009, 08:50 AM.
  • Kruza
    Mainstream Outlaw
    • Jul 2002
    • 6285

    #2
    Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

    Strikeouts (from the hitter perspective) is not an insignificant nor overrated stat by any means. There is a clear distinction between what is a productive out and what is a nonproductive out, and strikeouts always fall in the latter category. Putting the ball in play can create groundouts, sacrifice flies and suicide squeezes that can lead to scoring a run despite recording an out. Conversely, the potential run isn't happening at all on a strikeout (assuming there isn't a passed ball on the third strike).

    I wouldn't say it's insignificant, but the most overrated stat in baseball may be starting pitcher wins.

    And not many people may agree with me here, but I also think that walks for a premier slugger if he has a low RBI total is also an insignificant stat. Now if he's racking up RBIs and drawing a healthy number of walks then of course that's outstanding. However, being patient all the time and drawing a whole lot of walks doesn't do much good for the team whenever this guy isn't doing his primary job well first, which is to swing the bat and drive in as many runners that are in scoring position as he can.

    Kruza
    Last edited by Kruza; 09-26-2009, 04:20 PM.

    Comment

    • Coug00
      LOB
      • Jul 2002
      • 3476

      #3
      Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

      Chris Bahr needs to learn www.baseball-reference.com if he thinks there isn't a stat that tracks how many men were on base during a strikeout.

      First off, I don't agree with Bahr, strikeouts aren't the most overrated statistic in baseball. However, I do agree with his general message. Strikeouts aren't a huge deal as long as you are doing damage in the at bats where you aren't striking out.

      The most overrated stat in baseball? Where do I start? Wins, Saves, Holds, ERA, Batting Average, HR, RBI, Errors, Fielding Percentage, etc. They all suck because they all assume everything is equal. For example, there's way too much variation in defenses and ballparks to assume a 2.50 ERA > 3.20 ERA. There's way to much variation in scoring and a fielder's range to assume a SS with 10 errors > than a SS with 25.

      Basically, the majority of traditional baseball statistics suck. The day the mainstream media starts picking up the more advanced statistic to educate stubborn people who think SABR stuff is for geeks, is a great day for baseball.
      Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists Association

      Comment

      • texans
        Rookie
        • May 2004
        • 428

        #4
        Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

        I do not agree, you never want to strike out, ever. A waste of an at bat. I used to hate walking but I'll gladly take a walk over a strikeout any day. Striking out over 200 times in a season is totally unacceptable to me, even with good power numbers.

        And besides, the most insignificant/overrated stat is relief pitcher holds.

        Comment

        • Sandman42
          Hall Of Fame
          • Aug 2004
          • 15186

          #5
          Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

          Strikeouts are overrated for a hitter, but definitely not for a pitcher.

          Not even close to Wins, Saves, RBIs, and Errors though.
          Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists Association

          Comment

          • Ewing
            Banned
            • Mar 2009
            • 863

            #6
            Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

            Most overrated stat is easily W-L records for pitchers.

            Comment

            • CMH
              Making you famous
              • Oct 2002
              • 26203

              #7
              Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

              Originally posted by Coug00
              Chris Bahr needs to learn www.baseball-reference.com if he thinks there isn't a stat that tracks how many men were on base during a strikeout.
              It was the OP that didn't know about baseball-reference.com.
              "It may well be that we spectators, who are not divinely gifted as athletes, are the only ones able to truly see, articulate and animate the experience of the gift we are denied. And that those who receive and act out the gift of athletic genius must, perforce, be blind and dumb about it -- and not because blindness and dumbness are the price of the gift, but because they are its essence." - David Foster Wallace

              "You'll not find more penny-wise/pound-foolish behavior than in Major League Baseball." - Rob Neyer

              Comment

              • CMH
                Making you famous
                • Oct 2002
                • 26203

                #8
                Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

                Originally posted by texans
                I do not agree, you never want to strike out, ever. A waste of an at bat. I used to hate walking but I'll gladly take a walk over a strikeout any day. Striking out over 200 times in a season is totally unacceptable to me, even with good power numbers.

                And besides, the most insignificant/overrated stat is relief pitcher holds.
                Holds are insignificant but not overrated. I bet most people don't even know what a hold is or have even heard of it.

                Strikeouts are a waste of an at-bat, but they are not always bad. You ever wonder what that guy that just hit into a inning-ending double play should have done? I say he should've struck out instead (obviously, you would prefer a hit or a fly out - and this is up for debate as a fly out could also potentially result in a double play - but a ground out is worse than a strikeout in that situation).

                So using logic, if striking out isn't worse than grounding out into a double play, then striking out is not always the worst thing a hitter can do.
                "It may well be that we spectators, who are not divinely gifted as athletes, are the only ones able to truly see, articulate and animate the experience of the gift we are denied. And that those who receive and act out the gift of athletic genius must, perforce, be blind and dumb about it -- and not because blindness and dumbness are the price of the gift, but because they are its essence." - David Foster Wallace

                "You'll not find more penny-wise/pound-foolish behavior than in Major League Baseball." - Rob Neyer

                Comment

                • snepp
                  We'll waste him too.
                  • Apr 2003
                  • 10007

                  #9
                  Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

                  Here's a direct link to Mark Reynolds 2009 splits w/RISP.

                  http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2009&t=b#bases


                  Originally posted by Coug00
                  Chris Bahr needs to learn www.baseball-reference.com if he thinks there isn't a stat that tracks how many men were on base during a strikeout.

                  First off, I don't agree with Bahr, strikeouts aren't the most overrated statistic in baseball. However, I do agree with his general message. Strikeouts aren't a huge deal as long as you are doing damage in the at bats where you aren't striking out.

                  The most overrated stat in baseball? Where do I start? Wins, Saves, Holds, ERA, Batting Average, HR, RBI, Errors, Fielding Percentage, etc. They all suck because they all assume everything is equal. For example, there's way too much variation in defenses and ballparks to assume a 2.50 ERA > 3.20 ERA. There's way to much variation in scoring and a fielder's range to assume a SS with 10 errors > than a SS with 25.

                  Basically, the majority of traditional baseball statistics suck. The day the mainstream media starts picking up the more advanced statistic to educate stubborn people who think SABR stuff is for geeks, is a great day for baseball.

                  What he said x100.


                  Originally posted by texans
                  I do not agree, you never want to strike out, ever. A waste of an at bat. I used to hate walking but I'll gladly take a walk over a strikeout any day. Striking out over 200 times in a season is totally unacceptable to me, even with good power numbers.
                  It isn't a matter of "strikeout or walk", it's "strikeout or weak groundout/popout."

                  I'll take a slow lumbering power hitter striking out any day over shortening his swing and hitting into easy double plays. The notion that strikeouts are the end of the world is completely overblown. If the production is there it doesn't matter how it was achieved.
                  Last edited by snepp; 09-26-2009, 01:12 PM.
                  Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists Association

                  Comment

                  • franch1se
                    All Star
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 9060

                    #10
                    Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

                    Originally posted by texans
                    I do not agree, you never want to strike out, ever. A waste of an at bat. I used to hate walking but I'll gladly take a walk over a strikeout any day. Striking out over 200 times in a season is totally unacceptable to me, even with good power numbers.

                    And besides, the most insignificant/overrated stat is relief pitcher holds.
                    Runner on first, would you rather have a batter Strikeout for 1 out or ground out into a double play? I'll take the K.

                    Comment

                    • WazzuRC
                      Go Cougs!
                      • Dec 2002
                      • 5617

                      #11
                      Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

                      Originally posted by Coug00
                      The most overrated stat in baseball? Where do I start? Wins, Saves, Holds, ERA, Batting Average, HR, RBI, Errors, Fielding Percentage, etc. They all suck because they all assume everything is equal. For example, there's way too much variation in defenses and ballparks to assume a 2.50 ERA > 3.20 ERA. There's way to much variation in scoring and a fielder's range to assume a SS with 10 errors > than a SS with 25.

                      Basically, the majority of traditional baseball statistics suck. The day the mainstream media starts picking up the more advanced statistic to educate stubborn people who think SABR stuff is for geeks, is a great day for baseball.
                      I'm not a huge SABR stat-head like some of you guys around here, but why do you consider batting average, home runs, and RBI's insignificant? Is it strictly because not every MLB park is equal, nor every team's defense equal?

                      Comment

                      • snepp
                        We'll waste him too.
                        • Apr 2003
                        • 10007

                        #12
                        Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

                        They suck as evaluation tools, often pointing to horribly inaccurate conclusions while providing absolutely no context. The problem isn't with what they are, or what they measure, it's how they get used.

                        I can't count how many times I've had to hear about how good Jason Tyner was because of his batting average, or how much better Justin Morneau is than Joe Mauer because of his RBI totals.
                        Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists Association

                        Comment

                        • Coug00
                          LOB
                          • Jul 2002
                          • 3476

                          #13
                          Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

                          Originally posted by snepp
                          They suck as evaluation tools, often pointing to horribly inaccurate conclusions while providing absolutely no context. The problem isn't with what they are, or what they measure, it's how they get used.

                          I can't count how many times I've had to hear about how good Jason Tyner was because of his batting average, or how much better Justin Morneau is than Joe Mauer because of his RBI totals.
                          Couldn't have said it better myself.
                          Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists Association

                          Comment

                          • texans
                            Rookie
                            • May 2004
                            • 428

                            #14
                            Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

                            "Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything."

                            -Toby Harrah

                            Comment

                            • OSUFan_88
                              Outback Jesus
                              • Jul 2004
                              • 25642

                              #15
                              Re: Most Insignificat/Overrated stat in baseball

                              Originally posted by Ewing
                              Most overrated stat is easily W-L records for pitchers.
                              And it's really not even close.
                              Too Old To Game Club

                              Urban Meyer is lol.

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