Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

[Sportsforever]

Joe Posnaski's column today made me go look at Derek Jeter's career stats. While I was there I stumbled upon this gem:

Jeter Career line: 315/386/455 841 OPS

Jeter Playoff line: 313/383/479 863 OPS

His playoff stats have come in 637 plate appearances, so essentially a season's worth.

Now, I love Derek Jeter. I have come to respect and appreciate him as a player and I'll be sad the day he hangs it up. I'm not trying to tear him down or say he isn't a great player. That being said, a lot of "baseball analysts" refer to him as "clutch" when it comes playoff time. I've always felt that a player will regress toward their "mean" given enough "clutch" plate appearances. Lo and behold, Jeter's playoff line is ALMOST IDENTICAL to his career line.

Granted, you could argue that he is facing tougher pitching in the post-season so to maintain his regular season performance in the post-season shows he elevates his game. I haven't done an depth study to see the quality of pitching he faced, etc. I was just struck that his performance in the post-season has been identical to his regular season performance.

[Blzer]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

To be fair, many other people probably have poor playoff numbers in comparison. So for him to be "clutch" may just be for him to play as he always does, as opposed to choking in those moments.

And sometimes you just can't look at the numbers. Maybe there are just specific plays and/or at-bats where he came through which was notable for the game itself. Besides, you may have to look for splits such as RISP and/or with two outs, or OPS in the 7th inning and later.

[dalnet22]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

Also, what does it mean for Jeter to be "clutch" in the playoffs? Is he clutch when he gets a hit with nobody on base; steals a base; hits with runners on; makes a diving catch; makes a difficult throw; or walks when starting a count 0-2?

We have to define "clutch" before we can discuss it. Sometimes, however, it's better to go with our gut than look at all of the numbers. Rather than trying to dissect "clutch" factor via statistics and creating a definition, it can be easier to go with what we remember.

If someone has watched every playoff game the last 20 years and thinks Jeter was clutch, then maybe he was. His opinion may matter more than someone who hasn't watched a game but has all the numbers in front of him.

To be honest, it may be easiest to score "clutch" factor by simply writing down every clutch moment during a game. Say Jeter does something makes you think, "wow, that was clutch!", then add one to the tally. It would also be wise to not every "not so clutch" moment as a comparison.

[snepp]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

To be honest, it may be easiest to score "clutch" factor by simply writing down every clutch moment during a game. Say Jeter does something makes you think, "wow, that was clutch!", then add one to the tally. It would also be wise to not every "not so clutch" moment as a comparison.

They already do this for offense, it's called WPA.

[dalnet22]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

They already do this for offense, it's called WPA.

Interesting. I'd never heard of it before.

[snepp]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

Interesting. I'd never heard of it before.

It's on Fangraphs. It's been dubbed by its creator (Tom Tango) as the "story-telling stat."

Here's a little blurb about it...

Why you should care: WPA takes into account the importance of each situation in the game. A walk off home run is going to be weighted more then a home run in a game that has already gotten out of hand. This makes it a great tool for determining how valuable a player was to his team’s win total.

Another...

What WPA represents is the quantification of your feelings as the game unfolds. Imagine if Youk hit into a triple play his first 2 AB, with the score tied 0-0 the whole time, then the Sox lead 15-0 (and he gets two outs), then he hits two HR. How is it that you felt with Youk, if you tracked it in real time?

Well, his first two AB, you are cursing his name like there’s no tomorrow, then when the team batted around (twice), your blood pressure starts to go down, and then, with the score at 15-0, you’re probably not even watching the game any more.

That is what WPA captures.... the quantification of your feelings as the game unfolds, assigned to the players involved.

[dalnet22]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

Great thanks.

[imapotato]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

Ok I will only say this once and I am not catering to people who want to antagonize

Fact, players are human....MANY humans get anxious in a stressful situation. SOME can for whatever reason (A type personality, confidence,) can remain calm.

That's ALL it means, let's not make it into a computer algorithm.

If anything that shows his line is consistent, but it doesn't show if his outs are popups because he pressed or weak grounders because he chased....or if they were bullets hit to a fielder.

Jeter, if one sees him hit, will approach an AB the same if it is the 1st inning, the 5th inning with his team winnign 10-0 or bottom of the 9th 2 out and the winning run on 2nd.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

Ok I will only say this once and I am not catering to people who want to antagonize

Fact, players are human....MANY humans get anxious in a stressful situation. SOME can for whatever reason (A type personality, confidence,) can remain calm.

That's ALL it means, let's not make it into a computer algorithm.

And I'm pretty sure that's not the accepted definition of clutch. Clutch is the ability to play well beyond your means in high leverage situations.

If clutch did exist, the same hitters would be good clutch hitters every year, and the data doesn't show that.http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/gra...ullclutch.html

Besides, there's plenty of pressure every day when a professional baseball player steps to the batter's box with hundreds of thousands/millions of people watching him. Don't you think the players that couldn't handle that kind of pressure would have been weeded out by then?

If anything that shows his line is consistent, but it doesn't show if his outs are popups because he pressed or weak grounders because he chased....or if they were bullets hit to a fielder.

Jeter, if one sees him hit, will approach an AB the same if it is the 1st inning, the 5th inning with his team winnign 10-0 or bottom of the 9th 2 out and the winning run on 2nd.

Gun to my head: his batted ball numbers in "clutch" situations (late-inning ABs/playoffs ABs) aren't any different from his 1st-6th inning/regular season batted ball peripherals.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

And if clutch existed, you'd be guaranteed to find something absurd like a .270 hitter hitting .330 in the 9th inning. It's no coincidence that only the best hitters/pitchers are considered clutch. Does David Ortiz have alot of walkoff hits because he's "ZOMG super-clutch" or because he's a great hitter who hits near the top of the lineup (and thus gets more late-game ABs)? I'm thinking the latter is the case.

Clutch is the product of ESPN highlights and selective memory.

[Antec]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

And I'm pretty sure that's not the accepted definition of clutch.

That may not be the definition of clutch but I personally agree with him that that is what being clutch truly is. Overperforming because you're clutch doesn't exist. Being able to face the pressure and still perform as well as you normally do does. A non clutch player would perform under their skill level because they can't handle the moment. A choker would perform well under their skill level.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Interesting tidbit on Clutch Hitting

That may not be the definition of clutch but I personally agree with him that that is what being clutch truly is. Overperforming because you're clutch doesn't exist. Being able to face the pressure and still perform as well as you normally do does.

Normal production in high-leverage situations is ordinary performance then, not clutch performance. He essentially argued that handling stress well is basically "clutch." I never really gathered that from all the media narratives I've read about clutch performance. Usually, a "clutch" player magically kicks his game up a gear in pressure situations.

Is the fact that David Ortiz is a good postseason hitter prove he's clutch because he hits near his regular season norms or is it because he's just a damn good hitter? Gun to my head: It's because he's a damn good hitter.

A non clutch player would perform under their skill level because they can't handle the moment. A choker would perform well under their skill level.

Given enough PAs, everyone should more or less perform around their skill level.

The notion that there are chokers/clutch players is an ESPN concept, not a real one. And tying this into the earlier tidbit on Jeter, it's far easier to remember the Derek Jeter who hit the game-winning HR in Game 4 of the 2001 World Series than it is to remember the Derek Jeter who made an out over 82% of the time in that same World Series.