Is Moneyball the right strategy?

[VanCitySportsGuy]

I like looking at a players OBP and Slugging but at the same time I'm a fan of the bunt and steals at the right situation.

The was a game earlier where it was the 8th inning and the Jays were playing the Rangers on the road. The Jays were trailing by one run with men on first and second with nobody out and the number 9 hitter coming to the plate. I was yelling at me TV for Gomez to put down the bunt to move 2 men into scoring position and to eliminate the DP. Of course Gomez proceeds to hit into a DP and the Jays didn't end up scoring.

It's situations like that, that frustrate the hell out of me. Screw moneyball in a situation like that. I also disagree with not stealing. Just having the threat of the stolen base will put extra stress on a pitcher and there's the odd time the pitching will overthrow on a pick off attempt.

Moneyball is traced back to Beane. I can't argue against the A's success but where would the A's be without their big 3 pitchers? I doubt they would be in the playoffs. I've also noticed their payroll is starting to climb and I believe it's hovering around 60-65 mil now. All 3 are due big raises soon.

One thing that amazes me is how well the A's draft. Most of the core of the A's is players developed through their own system or aquired through trades from players in their own system. They don't go out like the Sox and Yanks to sign big name FA's or trade for players because they have priced themselves out of their own market.

[CMH]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

There have been a lot of discussions about this here, but I personally like it to an extent.

I love OBP, but I don't think you should take away steals and bunts from your strategy. If I have a guy that is blazing fast on the basepaths or a guy that is hitting .210, guess what I'm gonna have him doing in that situation.

Now, obviously, the Moneyball strategy is designed to keep you away from that situation. The ideal Moneyball team would have 9 players that walk at a .350 and above OBP clip. If that were the case then you really wouldn't need to steal or bunt, because your guys will get on more often than other teams.

The problem is that it's too difficult to build a team based on one stat AND also hope that they perform to their level in the same season. This has been Oakland's problem in the playoffs. Their walk players don't get walks in the postseason (and yes this has a lot to do with facing tougher pitching in the playoffs), so their entire strategy is thrown out the window. This is why I say you don't get rid of steals and bunts. You have to adjust to the changing environment. If you can't get walks, then you gotta produce runs some other way. I don't think there's any arguing over that.

Oh and one final note on Moneyball...

Yay, Moneyball and Nick Swisher (one of the first Moneyball-type players drafted by Beane). He made his MLB debut and went 1-3 with a double and two walks. The A's, by the way, won 7-4.

******

Swishers numbers in the PCL (AAA)
.269, 29 HR, 92 RBI, 103 Walks (.406 OBP)

[CMH]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

There have been a lot of discussions about this here, but I personally like it to an extent.

I love OBP, but I don't think you should take away steals and bunts from your strategy. If I have a guy that is blazing fast on the basepaths or a guy that is hitting .210, guess what I'm gonna have him doing in that situation.

Now, obviously, the Moneyball strategy is designed to keep you away from that situation. The ideal Moneyball team would have 9 players that walk at a .350 and above OBP clip. If that were the case then you really wouldn't need to steal or bunt, because your guys will get on more often than other teams.

The problem is that it's too difficult to build a team based on one stat AND also hope that they perform to their level in the same season. This has been Oakland's problem in the playoffs. Their walk players don't get walks in the postseason (and yes this has a lot to do with facing tougher pitching in the playoffs), so their entire strategy is thrown out the window. This is why I say you don't get rid of steals and bunts. You have to adjust to the changing environment. If you can't get walks, then you gotta produce runs some other way. I don't think there's any arguing over that.

Oh and one final note on Moneyball...

Yay, Moneyball and Nick Swisher (one of the first Moneyball-type players drafted by Beane). He made his MLB debut and went 1-3 with a double and two walks. The A's, by the way, won 7-4.

******

Swishers numbers in the PCL (AAA)
.269, 29 HR, 92 RBI, 103 Walks (.406 OBP)

[VanCitySportsGuy]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

I know Beane and company did a study on base stealing and found it doesn't generate more runs over a season but I still like the threat of the steal or speed on the basepaths.

I know Ichiro is not a moneyball player because he doesn't draw walks and is in the bottom fourth in the league in ISO power but because of his speed he's a real threat. Not only from swiping a bag but from running the basebaths from let's say going from first to third on a single.

The A's downfall in the playoffs hasn't been the lack of walks but the health of their starting pitching (and Giambi not sliding)

[VanCitySportsGuy]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

I know Beane and company did a study on base stealing and found it doesn't generate more runs over a season but I still like the threat of the steal or speed on the basepaths.

I know Ichiro is not a moneyball player because he doesn't draw walks and is in the bottom fourth in the league in ISO power but because of his speed he's a real threat. Not only from swiping a bag but from running the basebaths from let's say going from first to third on a single.

The A's downfall in the playoffs hasn't been the lack of walks but the health of their starting pitching (and Giambi not sliding)

[bruins09]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

i think so, just look at the a's. no big names, no big payments, but look at their record.

[bruins09]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

i think so, just look at the a's. no big names, no big payments, but look at their record.

[VanCitySportsGuy]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

i think so, just look at the a's. no big names, no big payments, but look at their record.

The A's have no big names?

What do you call Chavez, Kotsay, Crosby, Dye, Hatterburg, Durazo, Mulder, Hardin, Zito, Hudson, and Dotel then?

Or how about players they lost in Tejada, Giambi, and Damon.

[VanCitySportsGuy]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

i think so, just look at the a's. no big names, no big payments, but look at their record.

The A's have no big names?

What do you call Chavez, Kotsay, Crosby, Dye, Hatterburg, Durazo, Mulder, Hardin, Zito, Hudson, and Dotel then?

Or how about players they lost in Tejada, Giambi, and Damon.

[nkhera1]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

if you've gots ton of money to spare, the yankees method isn't too bad either

[nkhera1]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

if you've gots ton of money to spare, the yankees method isn't too bad either

[CMH]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

if you've gots ton of money to spare, the yankees method isn't too bad either

The thing is, Cashman is actually one of the few GM's that follows the Moneyball strategy. The difference is obviously money. He can be extra creative because he isn't limited by resources.

Then again, we also know that while Cashman is the GM of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner is The Boss and everything and anything goes through him.

[CMH]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

if you've gots ton of money to spare, the yankees method isn't too bad either

The thing is, Cashman is actually one of the few GM's that follows the Moneyball strategy. The difference is obviously money. He can be extra creative because he isn't limited by resources.

Then again, we also know that while Cashman is the GM of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner is The Boss and everything and anything goes through him.

[VanCitySportsGuy]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

The thing is, Cashman is actually one of the few GM's that follows the Moneyball strategy. The difference is obviously money. He can be extra creative because he isn't limited by resources.

Then again, we also know that while Cashman is the GM of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner is The Boss and everything and anything goes through him.

Unlike a moneyball team like the Jays the Yanks because of their large budget are more protected against bad contracts.

Let's say the Yanks sign Glaus for 10 mil and he tanks ... it's not a big deal because he can be covered with all the other big bats in the lineup and he could be dealt away to another team with the Yanks picking up most of his contract ... but a team like the Jays with a 50 mil budget can't take that risk of having so much tied into payroll for an injury prone player.

The more money you have to spend on payroll, the more protected you in terms of flexibility to make other moves.

[VanCitySportsGuy]

Re: Is Moneyball the right strategy?

The thing is, Cashman is actually one of the few GM's that follows the Moneyball strategy. The difference is obviously money. He can be extra creative because he isn't limited by resources.

Then again, we also know that while Cashman is the GM of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner is The Boss and everything and anything goes through him.

Unlike a moneyball team like the Jays the Yanks because of their large budget are more protected against bad contracts.

Let's say the Yanks sign Glaus for 10 mil and he tanks ... it's not a big deal because he can be covered with all the other big bats in the lineup and he could be dealt away to another team with the Yanks picking up most of his contract ... but a team like the Jays with a 50 mil budget can't take that risk of having so much tied into payroll for an injury prone player.

The more money you have to spend on payroll, the more protected you in terms of flexibility to make other moves.