Stolen Bases In Modern MLB

[TarHeelPhenom]

Since the year 2000, there have only been 3 players who have stolen 70 bases in a season. Compare to the 80's when guys like Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines and Vince Coleman were stealing 90-100 bases per season. What the heck happened? Pick offs get better? Pitchers throwing harder? Catchers more accurate? Players slower? It seems the numbers dropped significantly over a short period of time.

[Sportsforever]

Re: Stolen Bases In Modern MLB

Since the year 2000, there have only been 3 players who have stolen 70 bases in a season. Compare to the 80's when guys like Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines and Vince Coleman were stealing 90-100 bases per season. What the heck happened? Pick offs get better? Pitchers throwing harder? Catchers more accurate? Players slower? It seems the numbers dropped significantly over a short period of time.

Several things happened:

- With the home run happening more often in the 1990s it didn't make sense to risk getting thrown out on the bases, so teams stopped running.

- Sabermetrics demonstrated that the the SB really doesn't do much for you, so teams stopped running.

- Because of the first two points, teams stopped drafting/developing guys who could steal bases, and thus, stopped running.

I personally enjoy a good mix of power and speed, so I would like to see a return to 1980's baseball. To me the mix in the 1980's was perfect.

[SPTO]

Re: Stolen Bases In Modern MLB

The Royals are going to be the closest thing we ever get to the old '80s style but it seems to me they don't emphasize the running game as much until the playoffs.

[TarHeelPhenom]

Re: Stolen Bases In Modern MLB

Several things happened:

- With the home run happening more often in the 1990s it didn't make sense to risk getting thrown out on the bases, so teams stopped running.

- Sabermetrics demonstrated that the the SB really doesn't do much for you, so teams stopped running.

- Because of the first two points, teams stopped drafting/developing guys who could steal bases, and thus, stopped running.

I personally enjoy a good mix of power and speed, so I would like to see a return to 1980's baseball. To me the mix in the 1980's was perfect.

Wow...didnt know all that. I understand metrics has its place but i cant see how a guy threatening to steal all the way to 3rd or into scoring position does nothing for you. I too am a product of 80's baseball and would to see a return to that style. I do see the shift though...as a Braves fan there were years when Dale Murphy led the league in HR's with like 31 and RBI's with like 93...and stolen bases were high; and now the homers and RBI's are high and stolen bases are down.

[55]

Re: Stolen Bases In Modern MLB

The reason is that every time you attempt a steal, you are risking an out. Sabermetrics teaches you the philosophy that outs are precious since you only have so many (27) available to you in any given game. The same applies to sacrifice bunts as well. The amount of those are also down from 20-30 years ago. A true sabermetric approach says that you should pretty much never lay down a sac bunt other than when your pitcher is hitting, with a few rare exceptions.

[fugazi]

Re: Stolen Bases In Modern MLB

I disagree with sabremetrics here. They are right on principle...

But man on 2nd with 1 out (as a result of a sac bunt) requires one base hit to score a run...man on 1st requires two. Base hits are much harder to come by that outs.

Would you rather have two chances to get one base hit or three chances to get two base hits?

A good base stealing threat results in all kinds of pressures and errors for the defense.

Neither sacrifices nor steals can really be judged on the basis of the "27 outs to spend" philosophy...it requires looking at situations in which a base runner was thrown out stealing and the next guy up got a base hit, or when the sacrifice resulted in one less out to burn during what turned into a rally.

I think in a game with margins of victory often being very small, and on-base-percentages being very small, and base-hits being even smaller, and the number of legit every-at-bat HR threats even smaller... every run is worth it.

[Ghost Of The Year]

Re: Stolen Bases In Modern MLB

I disagree with sabremetrics here. They are right on principle...

But man on 2nd with 1 out (as a result of a sac bunt) requires one base hit to score a run...man on 1st requires two. Base hits are much harder to come by that outs.

Would you rather have two chances to get one base hit or three chances to get two base hits?

A good base stealing threat results in all kinds of pressures and errors for the defense.

Neither sacrifices nor steals can really be judged on the basis of the "27 outs to spend" philosophy...it requires looking at situations in which a base runner was thrown out stealing and the next guy up got a base hit, or when the sacrifice resulted in one less out to burn during what turned into a rally.

I think in a game with margins of victory often being very small, and on-base-percentages being very small, and base-hits being even smaller, and the number of legit every-at-bat HR threats even smaller... every run is worth it.

Earl Weaver say "When you play for one run, that's all you'll get".

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: Stolen Bases In Modern MLB

Just finished reading the part of The Book that covers all of this stuff, and without reposting the entire chapter the verdict is basically its complicated.



It's not just an issue of if you should go for the steal but when. They talk about a leadoff hitter getting on base, and trying to steal. What they basically come to is that it's different in that scenario because you need a double to get home from first in theory, and your best extra base hitters are coming up. So you're trading the possibility of an out and the bases empty for your best hitters for the possibility of moving him up to second in front of the hitters most likely to score him all the way from first. It's an argument of opportunity cost basically, not that you shouldn't steal, but that you have to look at the steal in the context of a million other things that change the situation. Theres an issue where the chance of success dictates whether its a good decision to steal based on base/out states. If my 3 hitter steals a base in front of my cleanup hitter who hits a home run, in theory you've gained nothing and risked a run. I think it's interesting but I don't know enough about statistics to argue one way or another, only to say based on the information they put out, I take their word for it.

[Blzer]

Re: Stolen Bases In Modern MLB

Another argument you can't throw out there is the percentage of successful stolen bases. Let's say it's a 75% success rate. That doesn't mean that your average base stealer would make it 75% of the time if they stole on every pitch. It would go down tremendously. Most players have to pick certain pitches to steal on, either by the pitch type, the timing of the steal, the unexpectedness of it (though arguably in baseball this should not ever be a factor), etc.