Re: 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates
First off, I think the point that needs to be made is that this is the right trade to make, regardless of whether it works out or not. When you're the Pirates you need to sell high on someone like Nyjer -- who barely made the team and loses some of his defensive value once he goes to CF -- and someone like Burnett -- who is fine, but probably bordering on a mini implosion of sorts.
In return you get two guys who are considered by their old team to be damaged goods, and who very well might not live up to their potential, but could come back and be great, which would make this trade look really bad for the Nats. You don't see trades like this too often between two bad teams either, which makes it all the more interesting.
It's basically a case of wanting to get better right now versus wanting to win in the future. The Nats are struggling with attendance (as are the Pirates) getting beat up by fans and media, and I'm going to assume they felt a little pressure to make some sort of move. Neither of the players the Nats traded were well liked, and I think they had to move them, which is also fine since that happens all the time in sports (hi Ian Snell).
The point is, if you're the Pirates you trade for the young talent and hope for the best. If the trade doesn't work out, it doesn't matter because Nyjer and Burnett are very replaceable and were not going to be around for whatever core is in place when the Pirates are ready to compete. If the trade works out, it's a coup that you can praise. The Pirates just need to keep making deals like this and at least a couple will work out, and that's all that you can hope for when acquiring any players with high potential.
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As for the players themselves:
Burnett has a 3.06 ERA, but his FIP is 4.5, his BABIP against is .218, and his strand rate is nearing 80% -- those stats are all going to take a hit with the Nats. He's probably a lefty specialist (LOOGY) rather than a guy you use against righties and lefties. His righty splits have improved this year, but his numbers still don't look promising against them and he walks too many righties as well. Not a bad reliever but probably a specialist in the end -- something you don't really need on a team that will be losing 80-90 games for a while.
Hanrahan’s line drive percentage is about 25 this year. There are 6 players with LD%s higher than that in 30 IP. Their BABIPS are .303, .387, .329, .441, .378, .363. Hanrahan’s .451 is the worst for anybody with more than 30 IP. He also strikes out over a batter an inning so it's not as simple as he doesn't get guys out.
Returning to the original point, in this year, his best in the majors, Sean Burnett has a FIP of 4.50, and it’s 4.98 for his career. His 3.06 ERA so at least partly due to luck, good defense and tiny sample size. For those same reasons that Burnett looks much better than he is, Hanrahan looks much worse than he is. Despite his awful ERA, Hanrahan has a FIP this year of 3.56, and 4.47 for his career. So that's why I say that the reliever swap is a clear win for the Bucs in a buy low sell high way.
Hanrahan had a rough start to the year and his confidence is shaken. He probably doesn't trust his fastball as much as he should and needs to be coached up a bit, which Kerrigan is good at. Just got to build him back up because the stuff is there -- his raw 2008 numbers show that.
Nyjer is a good clubhouse guy, and he is a real solid defender in LF. He is actually first in OF defense according to UZR (a good defensive stat but liable for big fluctuations when there aren't enough games played, which is the case right now for Nyjer). When he moves to CF, I think his value takes a hit that he cannot really afford, not to mention he's not a leadoff guy, but he'll play hard and he'll be lovable -- those things probably don't win you games in any sort of quantifiable way, but if people were tired of Lastings it will appease the fans.
Lastings is a bit immature and has been in some tough situations. He was a touted prospect in NY who kind of got a bad reputation -- some of that he deserved some he didn't. Then he got to Washington and played CF -- a position he probably isn't suited to play, especially in an OF that is already a defensive mess. He was kind of touted as a savior (I guess rightfully so when you trade a couple starters for him), but he's not a leadoff hitter, just like he's not a CFer.
What's nice is that he won't be touted as anything. Cutch is the CFer and leadoff man, so Lastings can just get healthy and try to fit in. It's a young clubhouse too, so some of the NY problems shouldn't pop up again.
Everyone knows he has route-running problems and baserunning issues (Nyjer has serious issues with the latter as well). Also he may or may not be open to being coached. Regardless, he has quantifiable abilities and did show serious promise at the end of last year...I could go into the various stats again like I did with the pitchers, but I don't think anyone questions the fact that Lastings is/will be better on offense than Nyjer, at least I hope not. So I don't feel the need to dive back into stats.
Nyjer definitely has more on-field value at this juncture in the year though, same goes for Burnett over Hanrahan. I simply don't think that will be the case moving forward.
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A final thing. If you're a losing team, it's a terrible mindset to want to just get "ML players" who have no real upside for guys who have fallen out of favor or who still have potential. You can't afford to make deals like that when your team is bad. Pirates fans know that more than probably any other baseball franchise. The last GM especially made a living tricking fans into believing that acquiring ML players in trades somehow made them steals. Except these players were usually goes who were on the downside of their careers or were already at their max level and were about to go down.
The Nationals minor league system is appallingly bad -- when it's worse than the Pirates system that's not good -- and they need to be replenishing that system at every turn because the MLB team that is there now won't win with the current roster.
First off, I think the point that needs to be made is that this is the right trade to make, regardless of whether it works out or not. When you're the Pirates you need to sell high on someone like Nyjer -- who barely made the team and loses some of his defensive value once he goes to CF -- and someone like Burnett -- who is fine, but probably bordering on a mini implosion of sorts.
In return you get two guys who are considered by their old team to be damaged goods, and who very well might not live up to their potential, but could come back and be great, which would make this trade look really bad for the Nats. You don't see trades like this too often between two bad teams either, which makes it all the more interesting.
It's basically a case of wanting to get better right now versus wanting to win in the future. The Nats are struggling with attendance (as are the Pirates) getting beat up by fans and media, and I'm going to assume they felt a little pressure to make some sort of move. Neither of the players the Nats traded were well liked, and I think they had to move them, which is also fine since that happens all the time in sports (hi Ian Snell).
The point is, if you're the Pirates you trade for the young talent and hope for the best. If the trade doesn't work out, it doesn't matter because Nyjer and Burnett are very replaceable and were not going to be around for whatever core is in place when the Pirates are ready to compete. If the trade works out, it's a coup that you can praise. The Pirates just need to keep making deals like this and at least a couple will work out, and that's all that you can hope for when acquiring any players with high potential.
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As for the players themselves:
Burnett has a 3.06 ERA, but his FIP is 4.5, his BABIP against is .218, and his strand rate is nearing 80% -- those stats are all going to take a hit with the Nats. He's probably a lefty specialist (LOOGY) rather than a guy you use against righties and lefties. His righty splits have improved this year, but his numbers still don't look promising against them and he walks too many righties as well. Not a bad reliever but probably a specialist in the end -- something you don't really need on a team that will be losing 80-90 games for a while.
Hanrahan’s line drive percentage is about 25 this year. There are 6 players with LD%s higher than that in 30 IP. Their BABIPS are .303, .387, .329, .441, .378, .363. Hanrahan’s .451 is the worst for anybody with more than 30 IP. He also strikes out over a batter an inning so it's not as simple as he doesn't get guys out.
Returning to the original point, in this year, his best in the majors, Sean Burnett has a FIP of 4.50, and it’s 4.98 for his career. His 3.06 ERA so at least partly due to luck, good defense and tiny sample size. For those same reasons that Burnett looks much better than he is, Hanrahan looks much worse than he is. Despite his awful ERA, Hanrahan has a FIP this year of 3.56, and 4.47 for his career. So that's why I say that the reliever swap is a clear win for the Bucs in a buy low sell high way.
Hanrahan had a rough start to the year and his confidence is shaken. He probably doesn't trust his fastball as much as he should and needs to be coached up a bit, which Kerrigan is good at. Just got to build him back up because the stuff is there -- his raw 2008 numbers show that.
Nyjer is a good clubhouse guy, and he is a real solid defender in LF. He is actually first in OF defense according to UZR (a good defensive stat but liable for big fluctuations when there aren't enough games played, which is the case right now for Nyjer). When he moves to CF, I think his value takes a hit that he cannot really afford, not to mention he's not a leadoff guy, but he'll play hard and he'll be lovable -- those things probably don't win you games in any sort of quantifiable way, but if people were tired of Lastings it will appease the fans.
Lastings is a bit immature and has been in some tough situations. He was a touted prospect in NY who kind of got a bad reputation -- some of that he deserved some he didn't. Then he got to Washington and played CF -- a position he probably isn't suited to play, especially in an OF that is already a defensive mess. He was kind of touted as a savior (I guess rightfully so when you trade a couple starters for him), but he's not a leadoff hitter, just like he's not a CFer.
What's nice is that he won't be touted as anything. Cutch is the CFer and leadoff man, so Lastings can just get healthy and try to fit in. It's a young clubhouse too, so some of the NY problems shouldn't pop up again.
Everyone knows he has route-running problems and baserunning issues (Nyjer has serious issues with the latter as well). Also he may or may not be open to being coached. Regardless, he has quantifiable abilities and did show serious promise at the end of last year...I could go into the various stats again like I did with the pitchers, but I don't think anyone questions the fact that Lastings is/will be better on offense than Nyjer, at least I hope not. So I don't feel the need to dive back into stats.
Nyjer definitely has more on-field value at this juncture in the year though, same goes for Burnett over Hanrahan. I simply don't think that will be the case moving forward.
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A final thing. If you're a losing team, it's a terrible mindset to want to just get "ML players" who have no real upside for guys who have fallen out of favor or who still have potential. You can't afford to make deals like that when your team is bad. Pirates fans know that more than probably any other baseball franchise. The last GM especially made a living tricking fans into believing that acquiring ML players in trades somehow made them steals. Except these players were usually goes who were on the downside of their careers or were already at their max level and were about to go down.
The Nationals minor league system is appallingly bad -- when it's worse than the Pirates system that's not good -- and they need to be replenishing that system at every turn because the MLB team that is there now won't win with the current roster.
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