Do players develop based on production?

[Soundtrack2C]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

Yea, we were told that mainly physical attributes would decline around age 27, however that hasn't been the case, it's been everything declining from that point onward.

It's absolutely ridiculous to see guys drop 4-5 points in overall after one season while guys like Exum who barely get minutes or wiggins who always averages sub 25 points in his rookie year, go up 5-7 points like magic.

It's terrible and likely won't be fixed until next year. But I'm sure they'll break something else next year while fixing this so it'll even out,lol.

Ridiculous how we can't even check the box scores of other teams thanks to this stupid new interface this year.


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[dwayne12345]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

Yeah 2k thinks guys decline at like 27-29 when it is more like 31-32 in real life and they think they are over the hill at like 30-31 instead of like the 33-35 in real life and they think that no one can be great over 31 even though you have guys that still play at a high level in real life like kobe, duncan, ect.

You realize Kobe, Nash, Duncan, and the like are the exception and not the rule. I really agree the progression system is broken but guys taking sharp declines in their late 20's early 30's is not it I don't think.

My problem is more with guys who don't play at all progressing as normal.

[joosegoose]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

You realize Kobe, Nash, Duncan, and the like are the exception and not the rule. I really agree the progression system is broken but guys taking sharp declines in their late 20's early 30's is not it I don't think.

My problem is more with guys who don't play at all progressing as normal.

Yes, players remaining elite late into their careers is an uncommon exception.

How many players are there, though, who were never particularly great but are still valuable role players at age 30+? A good few on pretty much every team, right? It's impossible in 2k15--that's the problem.

I was actually just playing MyLeague and spotted 31 year old Omer Asik at 63 overall; he shouldn't be sniffing any team's 15th spot. This happening to a few guys would be fine (and realistic) but it happens to almost every player who wasn't a star. Even stars (the kind who aren't currently veterans) are rarely worthy of being a 6th man at age 32.

The worst part is that shooting and iq magically disappears--JJ Redick in his age 32 season was a worse shooter than Ricky Rubio in my franchise. I can't begin to describe how hard that makes me laugh.

[msufanatic]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

Don't be foolish. Stats and a good season are the parameters most players use to get overpaid. It's not perfect but the fact that you can sign a player to a big contract and have him decline sharply shortly thereafter is on par with reality.

How do you think Kendrick Perkins, Brendan Haywood, Jeremy Lin, Amare Stoudemire, Andrea Bargnani, Joe Johnson, and many others have come to be known as "bad contracts" or "overpaid?"

A guy has a 20-10 season gets a big contract and immediately sharply declines shortly thereafter. Best real world example of this is OJ Mayo's 3 year 8 mill per year deal.

The system was designed to force the cpu (and unsuspecting users) into signing bad contracts.

If you have a problem with Kevin Love's declining 3 point rating change his training regimen to focus on outside shooting. That's what that option is there for. If you don't like Danny Green or Patrick Beverly declining sharply after year 1 it's a simple fix. Go into the roster editor and raise their potential rating to be at least 1 point higher than their overall rating. That way their sharp decline happens later on and not after the first season.

As far as when players decline it's not uniform. Ricky Rubio for example won't start sharply declining until his mid 30's and won't reach his potential until his late 20's (that was how he was in 2k14). 2K has a hidden attribute that dictates that and it's different for each player.

LOL all these tweaks that you manually have to do yourself essentially show how broken the game is to begin with.

[jclem92]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

I had Goran Dragic fall off a cliff at the age of 31 in MyLeague. Went from an 82 game starter to barely being able to handle 19 minutes a game. His statistical output is about the same per 36 however.

[Riggins]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

Just wanted to point out that Kendrick Perkins, Brendan Haywood, Jeremy Lin, Amare Stoudemire, Andrea Bargnani, and Joe Johnson are ALL one dimensional players and were overpaid from the get go. Not so much Iso Joe, but it still wasn't a good contract.

I just think player development should be based soley on production. If Stoudamire starts averaging 20+ points a game again guess what's gonna happen, his rating next year (or in an update obviously) will be higher.

[dmankey1]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

I don't think players should have to get ample playing time in order to progress. Should the player be rewarded for a good statistical year? Yes. Equally they should regress with a poor year. I think the main progression should come from practice and potential grade. Players don't have to get playing time to become good. They practice every day just like the starters so all their lacking is the actual experience of being on the court. What would the threshold be if a player had to get playing time to progress? They had to become good enough somehow to get minutes in the first place. Most players start their career by coming off the bench. Would they have to just excel every time and outplay the average production level to progress? That just doesn't seem fair or right to me. A player should progress based on many factors and practice should be the heaviest, Potential somewhere in the middle and PT being the lowest. Just my thoughts.

[darkknightrises]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

You realize Kobe, Nash, Duncan, and the like are the exception and not the rule. I really agree the progression system is broken but guys taking sharp declines in their late 20's early 30's is not it I don't think.

My problem is more with guys who don't play at all progressing as normal.

I know that not all guys play at a high level at 33-36 but very few guys decline before 30 in less they have a lot of injures or get in trouble with the law or something. Most guys are going to decline around 31-32 and most guys are not going to have a big decline in till like 33-35. Even though not ever player is going to be like 35 and still playing great there are pletty of people at like 32-34 that are still solid players. In this game 32-34 is like over the hill. In this game 32-34 is more like 35-37 in real life. In the NFL a RB being 30 is like a NBA player who is 35-36. In this game right now guys are decline at 30 like a RB declines at like 30 that is the problem.

[nry20]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

I know that not all guys play at a high level at 33-36 but very few guys decline before 30 in less they have a lot of injures or get in trouble with the law or something. Most guys are going to decline around 31-32 and most guys are not going to have a big decline in till like 33-35. Even though not ever player is going to be like 35 and still playing great there are pletty of people at like 32-34 that are still solid players. In this game 32-34 is like over the hill. In this game 32-34 is more like 35-37 in real life. In the NFL a RB being 30 is like a NBA player who is 35-36. In this game right now guys are decline at 30 like a RB declines at like 30 that is the problem.

The average NBA player plays 4.8 years in the NBA. The Average NBA player that is selected as an All-Star retires after 11.36 seasons, so between 28-30.

Here's a very short article, based on the book "Stumbling on Wins" that more thoroughly explains this;

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

Keep in mind that the average drop in stats between 32-34 is;

32 - 22% less than the year before.
33 - 35% less than the year before.
34 - 57% less than the year before.

Those are averages from all NBA players that even make it to being that old in the league. From 33 to 34 they drop by more than half of their year 33 stats, which had already dropped a third from the year before that. That's crazy statistically, and well represented in the game

I would say 2k's method of dropping all players is terrible, but it's pretty accurate. Less than 5% of NBA players (all the examples of those 5% are most likely HoF players, keep that in mind) play well all the way through their careers, or even remotely as efficiently as they did when they were in their expected prime of 25-27. You can't pull up examples of Hall of Fame players and say, "well they didn't drop off" because there are literally hundreds of players that did fall off in that same time. They're HoF for a reason brosephs.


Anyway, 2k handles this poorly, but reading this thread a lot of you have very skewed perceptions of the careers that NBA players have, or statistically how well they do throughout them.

[dmankey1]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

The average NBA player plays 4.8 years in the NBA. The Average NBA player that is selected as an All-Star retires after 11.36 seasons, so between 28-30.

Here's a very short article, based on the book "Stumbling on Wins" that more thoroughly explains this;

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

Keep in mind that the average drop in stats between 32-34 is;

32 - 22% less than the year before.
33 - 35% less than the year before.
34 - 57% less than the year before.

Those are averages from all NBA players that even make it to being that old in the league. From 33 to 34 they drop by more than half of their year 33 stats, which had already dropped a third from the year before that. That's crazy statistically, and well represented in the game

I would say 2k's method of dropping all players is terrible, but it's pretty accurate. Less than 5% of NBA players (all the examples of those 5% are most likely HoF players, keep that in mind) play well all the way through their careers, or even remotely as efficiently as they did when they were in their expected prime of 25-27. You can't pull up examples of Hall of Fame players and say, "well they didn't drop off" because there are literally hundreds of players that did fall off in that same time. They're HoF for a reason brosephs.


Anyway, 2k handles this poorly, but reading this thread a lot of you have very skewed perceptions of the careers that NBA players have, or statistically how well they do throughout them.

Very nice

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[swishfury]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

Regarding shooting touch, players improve their shooting as they age. Especially players who aren't athletic enough due to their age finds way to score so they work on their shooting. Vince Carter wasn't a good 3 point shooter when he was in Toronto but as he aged he improved drastically.

[darkknightrises]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

The average NBA player plays 4.8 years in the NBA. The Average NBA player that is selected as an All-Star retires after 11.36 seasons, so between 28-30.

Here's a very short article, based on the book "Stumbling on Wins" that more thoroughly explains this;

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

Keep in mind that the average drop in stats between 32-34 is;

32 - 22% less than the year before.
33 - 35% less than the year before.
34 - 57% less than the year before.

Those are averages from all NBA players that even make it to being that old in the league. From 33 to 34 they drop by more than half of their year 33 stats, which had already dropped a third from the year before that. That's crazy statistically, and well represented in the game

I would say 2k's method of dropping all players is terrible, but it's pretty accurate. Less than 5% of NBA players (all the examples of those 5% are most likely HoF players, keep that in mind) play well all the way through their careers, or even remotely as efficiently as they did when they were in their expected prime of 25-27. You can't pull up examples of Hall of Fame players and say, "well they didn't drop off" because there are literally hundreds of players that did fall off in that same time. They're HoF for a reason brosephs.


Anyway, 2k handles this poorly, but reading this thread a lot of you have very skewed perceptions of the careers that NBA players have, or statistically how well they do throughout them.

It is you that has a very skewed perception of a players carrier not us. Yes I know that the average player carrier is pretty short 4.8 years it is like that in other sports to like the NFL. But the thing is most guys that have a carrier of say 3-5 years are guys that either got hurt badly or got in trouble with the law or who where never know has being that good of players in the first place and who had to fight to even make teams in the first place. I am not talking about HOF players only. Guys like Jordan farmer, matt barnes don't just go form being 28 and then they turn 29 and they cant do any thing any more. There are pletty of rule players that have had long carriers and didn't suck right when they turn 30.

[nry20]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

It is you that has a very skewed perception of a players carrier not us. Yes I know that the average player carrier is pretty short 4.8 years it is like that in other sports to like the NFL. But the thing is most guys that have a carrier of say 3-5 years are guys that either got hurt badly or got in trouble with the law or who where never know has being that good of players in the first place and who had to fight to even make teams in the first place. I am not talking about HOF players only. Guys like Jordan farmer, matt barnes don't just go form being 28 and then they turn 29 and they cant do any thing any more. There are pletty of rule players that have had long carriers and didn't suck right when they turn 30.

Scroll down on these links to "per game" and look, it's easy research man. Dude didn't publish a moneyball book, where he compared everyone's stats ever, full of crap, lol.

Farmar - http://www.basketball-reference.com/...farmajo01.html
Look at 28, compare to 27. And look at that, peaked at 25.

Barnes - http://www.basketball-reference.com/...barnema02.html
Barnes had an upswing when he swapped teams to the clippers, but he's fallen 30% in production since the initial uptick. His age 30 numbers were about 30% lower than his age 28 numbers too.


Think of whoever you want, look it up. I didn't say EVERYONE, it's the average, you'll find outliers like barnes (although he's fitting right in, look at this seasons dropoff in per), but you'll find way more people who fit what 2k is doing.

[darkknightrises]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

Scroll down on these links to "per game" and look, it's easy research man. Dude didn't publish a moneyball book, where he compared everyone's stats ever, full of crap, lol.

Farmar - http://www.basketball-reference.com/...farmajo01.html
Look at 28, compare to 27. And look at that, peaked at 25.

Barnes - http://www.basketball-reference.com/...barnema02.html
Barnes had an upswing when he swapped teams to the clippers, but he's fallen 30% in production since the initial uptick. His age 30 numbers were about 30% lower than his age 28 numbers too.


Think of whoever you want, look it up. I didn't say EVERYONE, it's the average, you'll find outliers like barnes (although he's fitting right in, look at this seasons dropoff in per), but you'll find way more people who fit what 2k is doing.

With farmers stats there you could make a cause that he had just about has good of a season at 21 compared to 25 and the other years are just about the same other then this year but it is still early in the season this year. Most players are going to have 1 year that stands out has there best season doesn't mean they started to suck after that. That is something that seperats the all star players form other players is having good season after good season compared to someone like farmer who had one carrier year. Also stats don't tell ever thing.


Ok look at barnes he has never really been no for his offise more d and he had a few years that kind of stud out where he was around 10 points a game but most season we was not. Looking at those stats at 33 and 32 they where better then some of his other season we he was younger. You say look at his numbers at 30 compared to 28. Yes his points where down but his shooting % was higher at 30 and then at 32 and 33 his numbers where not much different then they where at 28 or even 26 so if any thing this proves even more that I am right.

[darkknightrises]

Re: Do players develop based on production?

Ok no you look at a guy like rick fox he did drop off a lot at 29 but with nba 2k this is what happens to like ever player in the game.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/foxri01.html

Now look at a guy like fisher you could say he sucked at 29 but he had a few bonce back years after 29 that where more like before he was 29.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/fishede01.html