MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

[zfcchg]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Any workaround, except changing every player age? Maybe use training on high intensity? Maybe players will gain some ovrl points, and even if they regress they still will keep their ovrl on the same lvl? Any ideas?

[TheJokester117]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

We all know 2k browses here. At the very least, an acknowledgement would be appreciated. Maybe even just tell us yes or no if it's gonna be fixed. It's pitiful.

[euphonious]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

We all know 2k browses here. At the very least, an acknowledgement would be appreciated. Maybe even just tell us yes or no if it's gonna be fixed. It's pitiful.

The whole thing is compounded by that, acknowledgement!!! I gotta praise all you guy's for staying so calm.
Please 2k something...........

[zxfhhg]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

I agree as well and my decision on whether or not to purchase the game may hinge on whether this issue will be addressed.

[Steelers=SuperBowl]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

So I set the player progression slider and in-season training slider to 35 each.
I simmed 4 seasons and I didn't have any of the severe regression issues that have been mentioned.

Harden remained in his 90's the whole time. Also guys like the Gasol brothers only went down 1 or 2 points a season.

I didn't read through all the pages on this thread, so sorry if someone already suggested this.

It has made things alot better though, at least for the MyLeagues i have played/tested

[DKTF]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

So I set the player progression slider and in-season training slider to 35 each.
I simmed 4 seasons and I didn't have any of the severe regression issues that have been mentioned.

Harden remained in his 90's the whole time. Also guys like the Gasol brothers only went down 1 or 2 points a season.

I didn't read through all the pages on this thread, so sorry if someone already suggested this.

It has made things alot better though, at least for the MyLeagues i have played/tested

I will have to test this when I get a change but I have a felling that it wont do any thing because I have tried having the player progression slider at like 0,25,50,75,100 and I see no difference when it comes to player regression only play progression.

[Comduklakis]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

So I set the player progression slider and in-season training slider to 35 each.
I simmed 4 seasons and I didn't have any of the severe regression issues that have been mentioned.

Harden remained in his 90's the whole time. Also guys like the Gasol brothers only went down 1 or 2 points a season.

I didn't read through all the pages on this thread, so sorry if someone already suggested this.

It has made things alot better though, at least for the MyLeagues i have played/tested

That's good news, although Marc Gasol shouldn't be regressing at all.

Since I'm doing a 30 team control, I'm thinking the best workaround might be simply noting each regression, player by player and editing them back as need be. Time consuming yes, but especially in the case of big time talents, it is needed.

[redsox4evur]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

So I set the player progression slider and in-season training slider to 35 each.
I simmed 4 seasons and I didn't have any of the severe regression issues that have been mentioned.

Harden remained in his 90's the whole time. Also guys like the Gasol brothers only went down 1 or 2 points a season.

I didn't read through all the pages on this thread, so sorry if someone already suggested this.

It has made things alot better though, at least for the MyLeagues i have played/tested

These guys ARE NOT the problem. The guys that are a problem are your Kyle Korver's, Wilson Chandler's. Not the superstars but the role players. I posted earlier about Kyle Korver. Ever since his age 28 season, he shot his 3 highest 3 PT%'s in his career. In 2K15 after the first season he is downright useless. And what roster are you using? Because if you are using the 2K official roster, you will not see this. This is because of the inflated ratings of the 2K ratings system.

[BigT34]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

These guys ARE NOT the problem. The guys that are a problem are your Kyle Korver's, Wilson Chandler's. Not the superstars but the role players. I posted earlier about Kyle Korver. Ever since his age 28 season, he shot his 3 highest 3 PT%'s in his career. In 2K15 after the first season he is downright useless. And what roster are you using? Because if you are using the 2K official roster, you will not see this. This is because of the inflated ratings of the 2K ratings system.

Korver is the rare player who improved in his 30s.

Most guys do not.

It would be great if that happened in 2K, but let's please remember that Korver is not the norm.

Also, how are we reaching the conclusion that 2K uses inflated player ratings? What does that even mean? What's the basis for that argument?

[BigT34]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

That's good news, although Marc Gasol shouldn't be regressing at all.

Since I'm doing a 30 team control, I'm thinking the best workaround might be simply noting each regression, player by player and editing them back as need be. Time consuming yes, but especially in the case of big time talents, it is needed.

Why should Marc Gasol not be regressing? Is he immortal?

He's going to have to regress at some point. Odds are that will happen around age 30. He may still be a good player but not as good as he used to be. Gasol would be seriously bucking the trend if he did not regress.

I agree that regression needs fine tuning. But where do people get the idea that stars shouldn't regress when they hit their 30s? This isn't the first time that idea has been put forth.

[DKTF]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Why should Marc Gasol not be regressing? Is he immortal?

He's going to have to regress at some point. Odds are that will happen around age 30. He may still be a good player but not as good as he used to be. Gasol would be seriously bucking the trend if he did not regress.

I agree that regression needs fine tuning. But where do people get the idea that stars shouldn't regress when they hit their 30s? This isn't the first time that idea has been put forth.

Its not that guys cant or shouldn't get worse at 30. The problem is that in real life most guys don't show a big decline in till like 33 and in this game guys fail off a cliff at like 30. Guys don't just get a little worse at 30 in this game they get way way worse and there I not much veration to it. Some guy should get worse at 30, 31, 32, 28 ect and in this game right now its not like that its like all 30. In the game right now like ever player who is like 30,31 drops and not by just like 1 point but like 4-6 points. In most simulations only 2 or 3 guys at 30, 31 don't get worse and production should play in to it because in real life if players don't have a big injury they tend to not drop off in just one year. If some one is a 20 and 10 guy at 29 changes are they are not going to all of a sudden at 30 only be a 13 and 5 guy or something. Also not only should some players decline at younger ages then another's but the drop should be different for some players. Some guys at 30 should decline by 1 another players should decline by 4 ect.


Even the best athletics are going to have there up and downs so even if at 30 a player has a worst year doesn't mean they are going to start sucking could just be a off year and they could rebound the next year. If a player is an all star- super star colaber player and they are 29 changes are they are not going to have a big drop off just in one year when they turn 30. Now form 29 to 32 or something yeah that is a lot more likely. If a player is a solid rule player at 29 changes are they are not going to be out of the league at 30. In this game there is a great changes that a 29 year old rule player is going to be either out of the league at 30, 31 or a bench warmer and that a 29 year old super star- all star player we be just a role player at like 31. Now while it may not be easy to have a long carrier like a kobe, Duncan ect with this game it is impossible for some one over like 32-33 to be more then just some rule player. It shouldn't happened all the time but you should beable to have guys who are playing like all stars at like 34-35 or at least above average players.

[BigT34]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Its not that guys cant or shouldn't get worse at 30. The problem is that in real life most guys don't show a big decline in till like 33 and in this game guys fail off a cliff at like 30. Guys don't just get a little worse at 30 in this game they get way way worse and there I not much veration to it. Some guy should get worse at 30, 31, 32, 28 ect and in this game right now its not like that its like all 30. In the game right now like ever player who is like 30,31 drops and not by just like 1 point but like 4-6 points. In most simulations only 2 or 3 guys at 30, 31 don't get worse and production should play in to it because in real life if players don't have a big injury they tend to not drop off in just one year. If some one is a 20 and 10 guy at 29 changes are they are not going to all of a sudden at 30 only be a 13 and 5 guy or something. Also not only should some players decline at younger ages then another's but the drop should be different for some players. Some guys at 30 should decline by 1 another players should decline by 4 ect.


Even the best athletics are going to have there up and downs so even if at 30 a player has a worst year doesn't mean they are going to start sucking could just be a off year and they could rebound the next year. If a player is an all star- super star colaber player and they are 29 changes are they are not going to have a big drop off just in one year when they turn 30. Now form 29 to 32 or something yeah that is a lot more likely. If a player is a solid rule player at 29 changes are they are not going to be out of the league at 30. In this game there is a great changes that a 29 year old rule player is going to be either out of the league at 30, 31 or a bench warmer and that a 29 year old super star- all star player we be just a role player at like 31. Now while it may not be easy to have a long carrier like a kobe, Duncan ect with this game it is impossible for some one over like 32-33 to be more then just some rule player. It shouldn't happened all the time but you should beable to have guys who are playing like all stars at like 34-35 or at least above average players.

I completely agree with you that we should have varying aging curves. It's essential that we occasionally have guys like Korver, Duncan, Ginobli, Nash, etc. who defy the typical NBA aging curve.

I can say that I have seen this in the game, though, to a lesser degree. I've seen lesser-level starters still be effective into 33/34/35, whereas other players dramatically drop. I do think the drop is probably a bit too dramatic.

BUT, I want to speak to this notion that the decline starts at 33, not 30. There's really NO evidence to support that, but ample evidence that around 30 is when many players do in fact drop precipitously.

For starters, there are only 13 players active in the NBA who are 33 years old. Only 4 of them have PER >15, and only 6 of them currently have a positive Value over Replacement Player (VORP).

11 of those 13 have experienced meaningful decline in production as measured by a decline in PER and a decline in WS/48 minutes. The only two who have gotten more productive are Randolph and Korver. So, the implication is that, remembering that the current 33 year olds were once part of a cohort of 25 year old players that numbered probably 40-50 total, only 13 of those players are still in the NBA, and only two of them got better from age 30 to 33.

If you're arguing that Gasol won't decline between 30 and 33, you're arguing for him to be an EXTREME statistical outlier. It's really important that we remember the concepts of availability bias and survivorship bias here--we should be careful not to compare 2k15's regression system to an inaccurate perception of reality.

But don't just take my word for it--there's a TON of great research on this topic:

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

AGE CHANGE :EXPECTED PERFORMANCE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS SEASON
25 to 26: -2%
26 to 27: -4%
27 to 28: -6%
28 to 29: -9%
29 to 30: -11%
30 to 31: -17%
31 to 32: -22%
32 to 33: -35%
33 to 34: -57%
34 to 35: -146%

Here are Shaq's WS/48 from age 30 to 34:
30: 0.394
31: 0.348
32: 0.340
33: 0.274
34: 0.206

http://wakimanalytics.com/data-analytics-research/discovering-aging-patterns-in-nba-players-2/

Here's the mean aging curve:



Note that 30 is already on the downward slope.

There are of course relative outliers, but the trend is still downward:



And solid evidence for different clusters of aging curves:



I'd love to see 2k draw on all of this data to fine tune progression and regression. But when we talk about regression being an issue, let's just make sure we have an accurate frame of reference when we compare the game to reality. I'm assuming that what we want is a sim experience, so one that's most realistic.

One thing I'll note in playing MyLeague is that veterans have a hidden advantage in that they often have really great badges that boost their performance in ways not shown by OVR rating. A 33 year old with 80 3-point ratings, deadeye, corner specialist, and limitless range plus favorable hot zones is going to be a way better shooter for me than a 24 year old who has an 85 3-point rating but none of those badges. Having things like mentor, spark plug, mind games, etc. can also be really valuable.

One thing I will notice seems to regress too extremely is athleticism--it's frustrating to see a 32 year old Anthony Davis with a speed rating of 25. He won't be as athletic as he is now, but he won't be THAT slow, barring injury, I'd imagine.

[xvgxh]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

I agree as well and my decision on whether or not to purchase the game may hinge on whether this issue will be addressed.

[DKTF]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

I completely agree with you that we should have varying aging curves. It's essential that we occasionally have guys like Korver, Duncan, Ginobli, Nash, etc. who defy the typical NBA aging curve.

I can say that I have seen this in the game, though, to a lesser degree. I've seen lesser-level starters still be effective into 33/34/35, whereas other players dramatically drop. I do think the drop is probably a bit too dramatic.

BUT, I want to speak to this notion that the decline starts at 33, not 30. There's really NO evidence to support that, but ample evidence that around 30 is when many players do in fact drop precipitously.

For starters, there are only 13 players active in the NBA who are 33 years old. Only 4 of them have PER >15, and only 6 of them currently have a positive Value over Replacement Player (VORP).

11 of those 13 have experienced meaningful decline in production as measured by a decline in PER and a decline in WS/48 minutes. The only two who have gotten more productive are Randolph and Korver. So, the implication is that, remembering that the current 33 year olds were once part of a cohort of 25 year old players that numbered probably 40-50 total, only 13 of those players are still in the NBA, and only two of them got better from age 30 to 33.

If you're arguing that Gasol won't decline between 30 and 33, you're arguing for him to be an EXTREME statistical outlier. It's really important that we remember the concepts of availability bias and survivorship bias here--we should be careful not to compare 2k15's regression system to an inaccurate perception of reality.

But don't just take my word for it--there's a TON of great research on this topic:

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

AGE CHANGE :EXPECTED PERFORMANCE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS SEASON
25 to 26: -2%
26 to 27: -4%
27 to 28: -6%
28 to 29: -9%
29 to 30: -11%
30 to 31: -17%
31 to 32: -22%
32 to 33: -35%
33 to 34: -57%
34 to 35: -146%

Here are Shaq's WS/48 from age 30 to 34:
30: 0.394
31: 0.348
32: 0.340
33: 0.274
34: 0.206

http://wakimanalytics.com/data-analytics-research/discovering-aging-patterns-in-nba-players-2/

Here's the mean aging curve:



Note that 30 is already on the downward slope.

There are of course relative outliers, but the trend is still downward:



And solid evidence for different clusters of aging curves:



I'd love to see 2k draw on all of this data to fine tune progression and regression. But when we talk about regression being an issue, let's just make sure we have an accurate frame of reference when we compare the game to reality. I'm assuming that what we want is a sim experience, so one that's most realistic.

One thing I'll note in playing MyLeague is that veterans have a hidden advantage in that they often have really great badges that boost their performance in ways not shown by OVR rating. A 33 year old with 80 3-point ratings, deadeye, corner specialist, and limitless range plus favorable hot zones is going to be a way better shooter for me than a 24 year old who has an 85 3-point rating but none of those badges. Having things like mentor, spark plug, mind games, etc. can also be really valuable.

One thing I will notice seems to regress too extremely is athleticism--it's frustrating to see a 32 year old Anthony Davis with a speed rating of 25. He won't be as athletic as he is now, but he won't be THAT slow, barring injury, I'd imagine.

Yes players do drop off around 30 but it is normally a small drop. You don't usly have players with a big drop off in till like 32-33. You always hear people talk about that players are in around there prim form about 25-30. Different sports are different when it comes to ages that guys drop off and how quily. In the NFL RB's at 30 are like just about died lol. In the NBA players are more like 34-35 by the time that happens. I know about how the average NBA carrier is like 4-5 year or something but that is very misleading because there are a lot of players who have short carriers because they either have a major injury, are hardly good enough to make it in to the league to begging with or get into to much trouble with the law or all of those things. Most guys if they can stay heathly, don't get into to much trouble and have enough skill to stay around are going to last longer then 4-5 years.


I am not saying that some one like gasol shouldn't get worse at 30 but he is going to be 30 in just a few days and he is having his best season yet and so I don't think he is going to all of a sudden going to have a big drop off next season. In this game he is going to have a big drop off next season. Players in this game decline to soon and to much those are the 2 problems. I think the bigger problem is how much they drop off though not the age. The thing to Is that there should be a way for some players to improve parts of there game has they get less athlectic. What I mean is a lot of guys who have long carriers has they get older and they start to loss athleticism improve there jump shoot and foot work and such. Guys who are good shooting shouldn't be losing there shooting ablity for a while has shooting is something that last longer yet in this game guys that are good shoots like a love, JJ redick get worse at shooting and also guys see there IQ go down some times witch is stupid guys don't get more stupid has they play longer lol. If more guys who get worse in the game went down by like 1-2 points in stead of 4-6 points in a season for sever season in a row things would look a lot lot better. I think there are more then just 13 guys in the league that are 33 has there are 10 guys at 37 or older. I belvie that like 18% of the league is 30 or older right now and in this game by like year 3 that 18% turns in to like 8%.

[BigT34]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Yes players do drop off around 30 but it is normally a small drop. You don't usly have players with a big drop off in till like 32-33. You always hear people talk about that players are in around there prim form about 25-30. Different sports are different when it comes to ages that guys drop off and how quily. In the NFL RB's at 30 are like just about died lol. In the NBA players are more like 34-35 by the time that happens. I know about how the average NBA carrier is like 4-5 year or something but that is very misleading because there are a lot of players who have short carriers because they either have a major injury, are hardly good enough to make it in to the league to begging with or get into to much trouble with the law or all of those things. Most guys if they can stay heathly, don't get into to much trouble and have enough skill to stay around are going to last longer then 4-5 years.


I am not saying that some one like gasol shouldn't get worse at 30 but he is going to be 30 in just a few days and he is having his best season yet and so I don't think he is going to all of a sudden going to have a big drop off next season. In this game he is going to have a big drop off next season. Players in this game decline to soon and to much those are the 2 problems. I think the bigger problem is how much they drop off though not the age. The thing to Is that there should be a way for some players to improve parts of there game has they get less athlectic. What I mean is a lot of guys who have long carriers has they get older and they start to loss athleticism improve there jump shoot and foot work and such. Guys who are good shooting shouldn't be losing there shooting ablity for a while has shooting is something that last longer yet in this game guys that are good shoots like a love, JJ redick get worse at shooting and also guys see there IQ go down some times witch is stupid guys don't get more stupid has they play longer lol. If more guys who get worse in the game went down by like 1-2 points in stead of 4-6 points in a season for sever season in a row things would look a lot lot better. I think there are more then just 13 guys in the league that are 33 has there are 10 guys at 37 or older. I belvie that like 18% of the league is 30 or older right now and in this game by like year 3 that 18% turns in to like 8%.

Did you even look at the data that I posted? Based on one study, NBA players have, on average, a 17% decline in production from age 30 to 31. That is not "slight." That is tremendous.

But a 17% decline in Gasol's production still makes him a damn good player, and one of the best in the world. Just like a 3-4 point drop in his OVR from 30 to 31 wouldn't spell the end of his career.

You're acting like you know what will happen with him. But NOBODY knows what will happen with Gasol next year. He could certainly buck the trend and have an even better season. He could have a much worse season. He could have roughly the same season.

But to act like we KNOW that he won't have a meaningful decline in productivity is silly. It is something that happens very, very often.

If people are arguing that the regression system is broken because they don't think a guy like Gasol will get worse next year, I'd argue it's their thinking that's flawed, not the game. I'm all for improving the regression system--I think it needs improvement. But let's anchor that discussion in reality, not perception. We have data to tell us what really happens, and we should use it.

And there are indeed only 13 players who are 33 years old currently. My source is here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/..._advanced.html

Ages on that chart are age as of Feb 1 of the season. You can sort by the age column, and count EXACTLY 13 players at that age. You are correct that 18% of the league is 30 years or older, and you are also correct that number is a bit too low in 2k MyLeague.