MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

[Steelers=SuperBowl]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

These guys ARE NOT the problem. The guys that are a problem are your Kyle Korver's, Wilson Chandler's. Not the superstars but the role players. I posted earlier about Kyle Korver. Ever since his age 28 season, he shot his 3 highest 3 PT%'s in his career. In 2K15 after the first season he is downright useless. And what roster are you using? Because if you are using the 2K official roster, you will not see this. This is because of the inflated ratings of the 2K ratings system.

So I went and looked at Kyle Korver after reading this and he went down 3 overall points after the first season. I didn't look at what specific attributes contributed to it, but I don't think a 3 point drop is that bad for a player turning 34 at the end of this year.

And I am using the latest roster update for 2K's official roster

[BigT34]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

I know some people hate generated draft classes, but this is an important part of the game--ideally we wouldn't need custom classes.

However, here's a couple of examples from my current MyLeague of older veterans who are still viable.

PG Kenny Cross
-34 years old, 70 OVR
-acquired by me to balance salaries in a trade, but has become my backup PG
-Formerly 10th overall pick, 12 year veteran, career best seasons were 11.4ppg 5.6 apg, never made a single all-star appearance, never played more than 28mpg in a single season. -His potential is 77, which suggests that he never peaked above 77 OVR
-Notable ratings include
--Midrange: 83 standing, 75 moving
--3 point: 85 standing, 74 moving
--92 ball control, 79 passing accuracy, 93 passing vision, 94 passing IQ
--51 lateral quickness, 64 speed, 64 quickness (he is 34)
--Gold badges: Bank is Open, Behind the Back Pro, Hesitation Stunner, Killer Crossover, Pet Move Size Up, and a silver Dimer badge

So, this is a guy with great ball-handling skills, a capable passer, and a guy who can hit open threes and provide spacing. Not bad for a 34 year old who was never an all-star and has been in the league 12 years.

Gary Terrell
-35 years old, 85 OVR
-Former all-star, formerly maxed at 97 OVR, now the 7th highest OVR SG in the league
-Speed and quickness have fallen from the mid 90s to the mid-70s
-Still 85+ in midrange and 3-point rating
-Still 85+ in ball-handling and passing accuracy
-92 OBDIQ, 89 Pass Perception, 96 Pick and Roll D IQ
-Driving Dunk has declined from 94 (he was a monster) to 76, driving layup is still 85
-Has had some gold badges decay to silver or bronze, but has 28 total badges including acrobat, break starter, fade ace, corner specialist, stepback freeze, dimer, pick and roll maestro, charge card, pick dodger, perimeter lockdown, transition finisher, one man fastbreak, closer, mind games, prime time, and spark plug

In short, this guy is 35, and yes a former perennial all-star, but he can do major work even at his age.

Grant Washburn
-35 years old, 76 OVR SG
-Former perennial all-star, peaked at 90 OVR
-Still 80s in standing mid-range and 87 in standing 3
-Speed and quickness in the 60s
-Badges include tear dropper, pick pocket, corner specialist, limitless range, acrobat, killer crossover, mentor

Interestingly, Washburn and Terrell both have the all-time great badge. Perhaps that affects aging?

Others of note: Marcus Smart is 71 OVR at 34, Julius Randle is 72 OVR. Still very viable players.

What's relevant is that the numbers really dry up past age 35, and no longer match the NBA at all. Currently a 68 OVR Brandon Knight, at age 37, is the only player >35 in the league. That's a problem, but also not the worst thing in the world--certainly not compared to inability to save multiple freaking files.

Another issue is that some of these viable older players are sitting in free agency, either because CPU AIs don't prioritize them or because their salary demands are perhaps too high.

[BigT34]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

So I went and looked at Kyle Korver after reading this and he went down 3 overall points after the first season. I didn't look at what specific attributes contributed to it, but I don't think a 3 point drop is that bad for a player turning 34 at the end of this year.

And I am using the latest roster update for 2K's official roster

Good to know.

Perhaps this will be an opportunity for somebody to explain how 2k uses "inflated" ratings, something I don't really understand.

[DKTF]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Did you even look at the data that I posted? Based on one study, NBA players have, on average, a 17% decline in production from age 30 to 31. That is not "slight." That is tremendous.

But a 17% decline in Gasol's production still makes him a damn good player, and one of the best in the world. Just like a 3-4 point drop in his OVR from 30 to 31 wouldn't spell the end of his career.

You're acting like you know what will happen with him. But NOBODY knows what will happen with Gasol next year. He could certainly buck the trend and have an even better season. He could have a much worse season. He could have roughly the same season.

But to act like we KNOW that he won't have a meaningful decline in productivity is silly. It is something that happens very, very often.

If people are arguing that the regression system is broken because they don't think a guy like Gasol will get worse next year, I'd argue it's their thinking that's flawed, not the game. I'm all for improving the regression system--I think it needs improvement. But let's anchor that discussion in reality, not perception. We have data to tell us what really happens, and we should use it.

And there are indeed only 13 players who are 33 years old currently. My source is here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/..._advanced.html

Ages on that chart are age as of Feb 1 of the season. You can sort by the age column, and count EXACTLY 13 players at that age. You are correct that 18% of the league is 30 years or older, and you are also correct that number is a bit too low in 2k MyLeague.

Yes I did look at the data but I think it is off. It had players showing a decline of 2% at like age 25 or 26. There is no way on earth that guys are showing any sort of decline at 25 or 26 like 99% of the time. I didn't say I know what will happened with some one like gasol. The problem is that in this game just about ever player has a big drop off right at 30 and even sever guys at like 27-29. I have seen simulations where good players like curry have there best year ever at like 28 and yet they go down like 2 points how dose that make sinces? With 18% of the league being 30 or older and with it being down to 8% by like year 3 of MYLEAGUE I would say that is more then just a bit low. That Is like a 50% drop. I don't cary what any body saids most NBA players don't have a big decline in just one season form like age 29-30 or something like this game. Now if a guy is say 29 and he gets a little worse ever year then yeah by like 32 he may be a lot worse then he was at 29 by not a lot worse form like 29-30. Also like I said you see guys get worse in shooting and that is something that last longer then just about any thing and guys don't get more stupid so things like IQ going down is just not realistic.

[madmax52277]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Is regressing the same when you play and sim cast a few, but play most of your game. because i think the sim system brings more regressing to players...anyone experience this.

[DKTF]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Is regressing the same when you play and sim cast a few, but play most of your game. because i think the sim system brings more regressing to players...anyone experience this.

No because even if you play most games what are you going to play ever game for ever team in the whole season?

[Shady Mike]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Has this been formally addressed by 2K?

[DKTF]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Has this been formally addressed by 2K?

I think is was said that 2k knows about the issue or something like that but I think that was like a month ago and with it being like 2.5-3 months sinces the game came out I think it is pretty safe to say its not getting fixed this year. I have been weight to start a MYLEGAE because of this but I am just going to start tomorrow. The game is amazing this year but it is a dissapotment that this has not been fixed has it is by far the biggest issue in the game and all it takes is one simulation to see that it is a problem so there is no way that they didn't know this was a problem before the game came out.

[vtcrb]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

Has this been formally addressed by 2K?

There has been NO Formal statement that I have seen.

[xgfhfyh]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

I agree as well and my decision on whether or not to purchase the game may hinge on whether this issue will be addressed.

[chvjhj]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

I agree as well and my decision on whether or not to purchase the game may hinge on whether this issue will be addressed.

[dmankey1]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

This has bothered me but regardless, I've had a blast with MyLeague. I've had to adjust the way I play it and it's not as accurate/realistic has it could be if this was addressed. I played around with salary cap on/off and hard cap on/off and found a happy medium that helps not get stuck with 2 years left on a declining player. I'm able to sign guys to shorter contracts paying more per year so their satisfied while still keeping the league balanced and competitive. I also make the draft class stronger and progression faster so players start at a higher level and reach peak faster. I'm seeing top players (those 3-4 superstars) being 22-23 and 94+ overall while solid role players a those 20-22 and 77-84 overall and the rest being 24-29 (smaller number towards 28-29). I'm just creating a younger league where I'd guess the average age is 25 vs actual NBA around 26.5-26.9 through recent years. Just my thoughts and what I'm doing to offset this issue

[BigT34]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

This has bothered me but regardless, I've had a blast with MyLeague. I've had to adjust the way I play it and it's not as accurate/realistic has it could be if this was addressed. I played around with salary cap on/off and hard cap on/off and found a happy medium that helps not get stuck with 2 years left on a declining player. I'm able to sign guys to shorter contracts paying more per year so their satisfied while still keeping the league balanced and competitive. I also make the draft class stronger and progression faster so players start at a higher level and reach peak faster. I'm seeing top players (those 3-4 superstars) being 22-23 and 94+ overall while solid role players a those 20-22 and 77-84 overall and the rest being 24-29 (smaller number towards 28-29). I'm just creating a younger league where I'd guess the average age is 25 vs actual NBA around 26.5-26.9 through recent years. Just my thoughts and what I'm doing to offset this issue

But NBA teams DO get stuck with big contracts on declining players. That's part of the uncertainty of offering deals to free agents.

A guy I referenced earlier--Gary Terrell--I traded away from my team at age 28 seeing that he was going to require a max contract and figuring he would decline soon. He actually didn't even start to decline in any way until age 32, and is 80 OVR at age 36.

I actually could have had 5 more years (since I held his Bird rights) of the best player in the league, but I bet wrongly that he would decline.

I think your post hits at something important, though--the difference between realistic vs. enjoyable. Sometimes, it's a lot less fun if things are too realistic. e.g. if injuries were truly realistic, we'd throw our controllers in frustration.

[joosegoose]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

But NBA teams DO get stuck with big contracts on declining players. That's part of the uncertainty of offering deals to free agents.

A guy I referenced earlier--Gary Terrell--I traded away from my team at age 28 seeing that he was going to require a max contract and figuring he would decline soon. He actually didn't even start to decline in any way until age 32, and is 80 OVR at age 36.

I actually could have had 5 more years (since I held his Bird rights) of the best player in the league, but I bet wrongly that he would decline.

I think your post hits at something important, though--the difference between realistic vs. enjoyable. Sometimes, it's a lot less fun if things are too realistic. e.g. if injuries were truly realistic, we'd throw our controllers in frustration.

I pretty much always agree with everything you say, but I think I would enjoy truly realistic injuries the same as I would enjoy realistic everything

That is, so long as we retained the option to edit/change things in the case of where we really wanted things a certain way . I just reduced a Kyle Korver injury in my game by almost two months so that he'd be healthy for the playoffs. I was having a lot of fun hitting corner 3s with him in my Pace offense and he got injured in my second game actually playing him. This was a very unique case for me--I've never played with that good of a shooter in an NBA game before, period.

[dmankey1]

Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

But NBA teams DO get stuck with big contracts on declining players. That's part of the uncertainty of offering deals to free agents.

A guy I referenced earlier--Gary Terrell--I traded away from my team at age 28 seeing that he was going to require a max contract and figuring he would decline soon. He actually didn't even start to decline in any way until age 32, and is 80 OVR at age 36.

I actually could have had 5 more years (since I held his Bird rights) of the best player in the league, but I bet wrongly that he would decline.

I think your post hits at something important, though--the difference between realistic vs. enjoyable. Sometimes, it's a lot less fun if things are too realistic. e.g. if injuries were truly realistic, we'd throw our controllers in frustration.

I agree with you regarding the risk of free agency. I've always been inclined to younger players so i usually don't give the 27-28 year old a look (unless I need them badly and highly rated). I just like the thought of dominating with young guys in a league that is difficult to do so (in real life). Good point though with your player.