Analysis of "Player Potential"

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Updated spreadsheet with Second Sim Information:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=2

[SwaggerCoach]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Love the work so far man, I know it's not easy and I really appreciate it.

I'm checking out the latest spreadsheet now!

Interesting to note that the 85 pot and the 95 pot player progressed almost identically. Hmmm.

Also, there appears to be a massive difference between 65 and 75 potential...apparently those players with 65 and below don't see their potential change from year to year. Those with 75 potential, however, have their potential increase year to year.

So my next question is: What is the magic # for player potential that dictates whether or not someone will gain potential year to year??

[Reggie31]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

This is great stuff, ill have to make sure and give my rookies minutes...

Im wondering if each position has a different "perfect weight."

[Colts18]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

So OP, from your data thus far, what are you leaning towards when it comes to a scale for current NBA players.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

So my next question is: What is the magic # for player potential that dictates whether or not someone will gain potential year to year??

Yep... That was the same question I was thinking and one of the things that I'll try next.

Another thing I need to start doing is changing player age, that's a bit of a pain in the *** to do since you can't just go into your CAP and edit it, but I'm pretty sure that affects how a player's overall rating develop...

So OP, from your data thus far, what are you leaning towards when it comes to a scale for current NBA players.

...Which is also why I'm going to hold off on a scale at this point in time ;-) (though off the top of my head I think it's pretty safe to say that finished product role players / scrubs / filler should have a potential rating no higher than 65).

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Before I forget, I'm simming 14 game seasons so it's possible that the difference between a player getting and not getting minutes is bigger than what the chart seems to indicate...

Not sure if I'm up to simming 20, 82 game seasons to find out though

[jinntu]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I know in real life you're dead on, how certain are you that this is the case in 2k12?

I can go ahead and track the MPG number it just opens up a whole new can of worms X_X

I'm absolutely sure. Unless they completely changed it I know it from previous editions. Potential makes guys advance in some day in February(could be Jan or March but its in that area, they get their mid-season stat increase) and t the end of the season and if a guy gets hurt or you don't use him he increases less, if at all, than a guy that's starting.

Sim with a guy sitting at the bottom of the rotation getting like 1mpg and a guy getting 35mpg both with 99 potential and see how they grow.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I'm absolutely sure. Unless they completely changed it I know it from previous editions. Potential makes guys advance in some day in February(could be Jan or March but its in that area, they get their mid-season stat increase) and t the end of the season and if a guy gets hurt or you don't use him he increases less, if at all, than a guy that's starting.

Sim with a guy sitting at the bottom of the rotation getting like 1mpg and a guy getting 35mpg both with 99 potential and see how they grow.

I actually did something like that in my last SIM (30 mpg vs. 10 mpg), thanks for that.

[Reggie31]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I have a question for the boys who have done all the research... If i got lets say kyrie irving as a 77 ovr and an 80 potential what would he max at and then what if i spent my training camp on his potential and raised it to a 90 over the course of his first two years or would it matter if I didnt raise his potential till after i raised his 3 pt rating the first two years. Lets assume he gets 25 minutes a game, 15 pts a game, rookie of the year, and sixth man of the year (granted im sure accolades dont matter.) Now imagine he is a 80 ovr with a 90 potential is it worth it to raise that to a 99 and btw assume he has the same stats as the original kyrie.

What should i change is there a minutes, points, assists, steals sweet spot or a line to make sure and cross. Does anyone think allstar appearances or mvps have an effect. I know some people dont care to find the "formula" but in the NBA Gms have gotten development down to as close to a formula or science as they can and I will try and do the same! Now i know i can find alot of these answers in earlier posted spread sheats and I will use those to fill in the blanks but if you could just answer what you can or care to that would be great. Thanks

[youALREADYknow]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I have a question for the boys who have done all the research... If i got lets say kyrie irving as a 77 ovr and an 80 potential what would he max at and then what if i spent my training camp on his potential and raised it to a 90 over the course of his first two years or would it matter if I didnt raise his potential till after i raised his 3 pt rating the first two years. Lets assume he gets 25 minutes a game, 15 pts a game, rookie of the year, and sixth man of the year (granted im sure accolades dont matter.) Now imagine he is a 80 ovr with a 90 potential is it worth it to raise that to a 99 and btw assume he has the same stats as the original kyrie.

What should i change is there a minutes, points, assists, steals sweet spot or a line to make sure and cross. Does anyone think allstar appearances or mvps have an effect. I know some people dont care to find the "formula" but in the NBA Gms have gotten development down to as close to a formula or science as they can and I will try and do the same! Now i know i can find alot of these answers in earlier posted spread sheats and I will use those to fill in the blanks but if you could just answer what you can or care to that would be great. Thanks

With the results of these sims, it would appear that Kyrie with a 80 Potential would become a 90 OVR player in a few years without much effort. It proves that he probably shouldn't be a 77 OVR as a rookie. That kind of rating would have barely been justified for a Kevin Durant or LeBron James coming out of the draft.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Will be doing something in the next day or two...

[jinntu]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

With the results of these sims, it would appear that Kyrie with a 80 Potential would become a 90 OVR player in a few years without much effort. It proves that he probably shouldn't be a 77 OVR as a rookie. That kind of rating would have barely been justified for a Kevin Durant or LeBron James coming out of the draft.

Are you saying that's too low or too high? If you're saying its too low then I'm not sure I can agree with that sentiment, that that rating isn't justified for say a Lebron or a Durant coming right out of the draft...What I think we often lose sight on is that there are more layers to how a guy gets his stats than <i>just</i> how good he is individually. In the game, how effective a guy is, is determined as much by their tendencies and the coaching profiles as by the attributes. It depends on how much they play to their strengths and how much the play system of the team is catered to that particular player's strengths.

For example in my current association I have a ovr 75 rookie averaging 28ppg 6rpg and 5apg and I'm only simming/watching games at this point because I'm still experimenting with a lot of stuff.

That said at a 75 he's still the best player on his team and his tendencies play to his strengths, which are nigh all based on athleticism, driving to the lane, and short mid-ranged shots(close shots in the attributes).

His awarenesses are set low (60s OA and high 50s DA), which honestly I think they should be for the vast majority of rookies to reflect inexperience and rookie mistakes, especially defensive awareness and on ball defense My reasoning being that defense has far more to do with experience and effort than they do anything else.

You get guys that come out rookie year and get like 2+SPG but having quick hands and gambling on steals is not the same as being a great defender...
You generally don't see young lockdown defenders, that's the type of label a guy gains as he becomes a veteran.

[youALREADYknow]

Re: Analysis of &quot;Player Potential&quot;

Are you saying that's too low or too high?

I'm saying he's too high at 77 and that only players like LeBron or Durant should be up in the 75+ OVR range as rookies.

If it were up to me, Irving would barely crack 70 OVR given the existing rosters. There are too many NBA veterans and 2nd/3rd year players rated under 70 to justify rating more than a handful of rookies higher than them.

[jinntu]

Re: Analysis of &quot;Player Potential&quot;

I'm saying he's too high at 77 and that only players like LeBron or Durant should be up in the 75+ OVR range as rookies.

If it were up to me, Irving would barely crack 70 OVR given the existing rosters. There are too many NBA veterans and 2nd/3rd year players rated under 70 to justify rating more than a handful of rookies higher than them.

Yeah I definitely agree. I generally try to get my rookies in the 70-65 range for top pics unless they're going to be those once in a generational players then they <i>might</i> go as high as 80 for the reasons I stated in my last post. With things that are essentially experience based like awarenesses, defense and consistency being major factors in the OVR setting them lower lets you make good use of the rookies and makes the vets more valuable. I wish there was a leadership stat like in NFL 2k5 to separate guys like say D Fish who honestly at this point in his career doesn't have much else other than awareness and leadership.

[Barncore]

Re: Analysis of &quot;Player Potential&quot;

I don't post here often but I've been following this thread closely, looking forward to seeing future results!