Analysis of "Player Potential"

[Hold My Own]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Hey, Synchromesh. I'm gonna have some free time on my hands and I'm curious about this whole project you're doing I'd be happy to lend a hand with simulating or whatever it may be. Besides, two heads are better than one.

If you need the help, let me know. We can work out details afterwards or something.

[Barncore]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I'd like to see how the progression of players older than 19 goes...

[ronyell]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

ok im not one thats good at explaining every detail of my documentations through testing BUT i did do a lot of testing today because of this thread & trying to make a subjective-esque scale for our rosters & ive found:

• the most significant rating increases come in between ages 19 & 24
• significant increases to ratings may occur outside of the above range if the potential is above 74 (because potentials increase with progression after that point)
• the most significant decrease come after age 30
• decreases can also be large if a player is not getting much playing time
• progression is also impacted my playing time & starts
• there are a LOT of variables that manage progression & potential management

my synopsis is that players below age 22 should not have an overall rating above 65 if the are going to have a potential above 74 because they will have the greatest increases until age 24 AND their potential will also be increasing during that time

older players potential will start to decrease around age 30 if their potential is below 74 at that time

i did a LOT of testing today (actually ALL day) & these are just my findings & opinion but i am sure that 2k coded potential so that NOTHING is concrete & quantifiable so u guys may be on witch-hunt if u are looking for some definitive scientific measure for how to rate potentials. i am assuming a semi-broad scale with some age & overall limits will have to do.

[Hold My Own]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I don't know why but this thread to me has a lot of potential to uncover some pretty valuable information. Maybe we could update the OP from time to time and make it a little more organized and accessable. I'll start doing some testing tomorrow, I was just waiting on Synch to see if he could tell fill me in on where he was so we weren't just working on the same things.

Would any of you guys happen to have a draft class on the 2K share so I don't have to go and make one to sim with? That way, we'd all have the same exact rosters without having to go create them and there'd be less room for variable errors.

[Barncore]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Does anybody know how differently potential effects propects with a higher overall rating as opposed to a prospect with a lower ovr rating?

I.e. we know that a 19 yr old rated 61 with an 85 potential will develop into a 85+ player... But what about a 19 yr old rated 75 with an 85 potential?
Would they develop into an 85+ player or a 95+ player?

[youALREADYknow]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I.e. we know that a 19 yr old rated 61 with an 85 potential will develop into a 85+ player... But what about a 19 yr old rated 75 with an 85 potential?
Would they develop into an 85+ player or a 95+ player?

Potential isn't a "rating cap". It's a measure from 0-100 on how fast someone will progress.

[Jukeman]

Potential isn't a "rating cap". It's a measure from 0-100 on how fast someone will progress.

It's not necessarily a cap but a guy who has a pot rating close to his current OVR is more likely to not progress a much as a guy who doesnt.

For example.

And 60 OVR player with 70 pot will progress more than a 68 OVR player with the same potential.

Its also documented as such because Ive had two players on my team with the same pot rating (on was a 59 OVR while the other was 64) the 59 OVR had a grade of B- for potential (Progress to 69 by age 30; 19 year old rookie) and the 64 OVR hat a D+ in pot grade (progressed to 68)


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[ronyell]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

VERY good observation... thats why you see such a huge increase for low rated players... just like in real life, players that are VERY raw but drafted based on potential have a the biggest jump to make to crack a starting line-up.

there just has to be a balance between having raw rookies with high potentials - more polished rooks with a lil bit lower potentials (using a OVR ratings cap/limit) - managing that "magic" potential number of 75 sparingly

[SwaggerCoach]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Just getting caught up on this thread...

Getting some great information!

So 74 is the magic number that determines whether a young player starts gaining potential year to year?

[Jukeman]

I bet it works like how the standing dunk rating worked in the past where as 99 75 and 50 were the only numbers that really mattered.

I wouldn't be surprised if 40 60 80 are the difference between a player progressing 5, 10 or up to 20+ pts in ratings (assuming the guy has a low OVR to higher Pot ratio)

Food for thought, the abilities ratings comes out to 40=poor 60=good 80=great or something close to that.


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[ronyell]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Just getting caught up on this thread...

Getting some great information!

So 74 is the magic number that determines whether a young player starts gaining potential year to year?

youALREADYknow (man i like typing out his screen name & laughing at how it sounds in the contxt of posts... lol) said that he saw players potential progressing at a 64 potential but i mysefl have not ever seen that... once again... lots of variables at hand but i havent seen it & CWsapp who does the fictional classes has the same magic number at 75 so i guess its a crap shoot BUT majority os 75 as the magic number

I bet it works like how the standing dunk rating worked in the past where as 99 75 and 50 were the only numbers that really mattered.

I wouldn't be surprised if 40 60 80 are the difference between a player progressing 5, 10 or up to 20+ pts in ratings (assuming the guy has a low OVR to higher Pot ratio)

Food for thought, the abilities ratings comes out to 40=poor 60=good 80=great or something close to that.


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good info on the abilities altough i dont think the potential scales like that... it truly seems lika a mixture of what u posted before Jukeman & playing time & just pure randomness in some instances. the ages that the increases & decreases are the most drastic are the ones that i outlined... thats the ONLY area that ive seen no exceptions in. what about u guys?

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Whoops... Been busy with other stuff, am going to read through the last two pages of this thread in a few

Haven't had the time to do any more simming...

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Hey, Synchromesh. I'm gonna have some free time on my hands and I'm curious about this whole project you're doing I'd be happy to lend a hand with simulating or whatever it may be. Besides, two heads are better than one.

If you need the help, let me know. We can work out details afterwards or something.

More help is always appreciated, I just need to organize / review what I've already done and then plan out the next logical step for testing.

I'd like to see how the progression of players older than 19 goes...

Agreed, this is something that needs to be tested.

I don't know why but this thread to me has a lot of potential to uncover some pretty valuable information. Maybe we could update the OP from time to time and make it a little more organized and accessable. I'll start doing some testing tomorrow, I was just waiting on Synch to see if he could tell fill me in on where he was so we weren't just working on the same things.

Would any of you guys happen to have a draft class on the 2K share so I don't have to go and make one to sim with? That way, we'd all have the same exact rosters without having to go create them and there'd be less room for variable errors.

, I'll update the first page eventually, I never really thought there would be this much interest in this thread so I was more or less just posting my running thoughts and results throughout it!

Does anybody know how differently potential effects propects with a higher overall rating as opposed to a prospect with a lower ovr rating?

I.e. we know that a 19 yr old rated 61 with an 85 potential will develop into a 85+ player... But what about a 19 yr old rated 75 with an 85 potential?
Would they develop into an 85+ player or a 95+ player?

I Haven't come to a definitive conclusion at this point in time... This question came up when I was simming though, and there was something I wanted to say about it, I just can't remember what I had to say

---

edit: Also thanks to the others who have are chipping in with info. about potential and player progression.

[Hold My Own]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Does anybody know how differently potential effects propects with a higher overall rating as opposed to a prospect with a lower ovr rating?


I.e. we know that a 19 yr old rated 61 with an 85 potential will develop into a 85+ player... But what about a 19 yr old rated 75 with an 85 potential?
Would they develop into an 85+ player or a 95+ player?

I'm doing a 20 season simulation with 75 overall 19 year old SG with 85 potential since you asked. It's pretty crude since I'm not comparing it to anything really. I'll sim 20 seasons and give you the results.

I'll be documenting him a little more heavily since I'm only having to follow one player. I.E. achievemts, and such. Just to see how he turns out.

____________________________________________

Update:

Below is a Google Document following the Potential, and player progression of a RANDOMLY generated guy in a RANDOM draft class.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...NOWEE&hl=en_US

Career Accomplishments:
1 Time NBA Champion
5 Time NBA MVP
1 Time NBA Finals MVP
16 time NBA All-Star
1 Time All-NBA Second Team
8 Time NBA DPOY
All-Rookie First Team
12 Time ALL-NBA First Team
15 Time All-Defensive First Team

Sidenotes: He spent his whole career on New Jersey and I made zero signings or trades. Also, Brook Lopez and Deron Williams ended up retiring here. Not sure how much their presence had to do with his potential. He averaged 35 MPG, and here are some things pertaining to developement. I'll end up doing another sometime soon with a lot more players.

Post season potential notes.

Spoiler

After year 1: Potential grade rose from an A- to an A. Potential attribute rose from 85 to an 88.

After year 2: Potential grade rose from A to an A+. Potential attribute rose from 88 to 91.

After year 3: The Nets made the playoffs with the 6th seed and got beat in 7 in the 1st round. Potential grade, still at an A+. Potential attribute from 91 to 93.

After year 4: 4th seed in the East. Swept NY in the 1st round, beat Boston in 5 in the 2nd round, and lost to Milwaukee in 7 in the ECF. Potential attribute from 93 to 95.

After year 5: WOW. He got League MVP. 21.8 PPG, 7 REB, 5.6 AST. 2.5 STL, 1.2 BLK, 46% on FGs. 3rd Seed in the East. Lost in the Finals in 5. Noticed that the potential attribute finally stopped going up by 2 every year. Potential attribute only went to 96 this year.

After year 6: 3rd seed playoff spot, and lost in 7 in the 1st round. (Kinda surprising considering last year.) Potential attribute stayed at 96.

After Year 7: 1st Seed in the East. Won in 7 in the first round, swept in the 2nd. Potential attribute went to 97.

After Year 8: Potential attribute still at 97. Finally won an NBA Title.

After Year 9: Kevin Durant broke the MVP streak. (Won MVP every year since his first time receiving it.) 1st round loss in 7. Potential grade disappeared finally. Interesting. Potential attribute still at 97 though.

After Year 10: A scoring title surprisingly only averaging 26.8, and KD at 26.2 PPG. 5th seed, 2nd round loss in 5. 97 potential attribute.

After Year 11: 8th seed, 1st round loss in 5. Potential still cruising at a 97.

After year 12: 8th seed, 1st round loss in 6. Once again, potential is still 97.

After year 13: No playoffs, potential attribute drops to 96.

After Year 14: No playoffs, potential attribute drops to 95.

After Year 15: No Playoffs. Potential is at a 92.

After Year 16: Just first NBA and Def Team this year, no playoffs. Pot. 90

After Year 17: No post season awards or teams. No playoffs. Potential 87.

After Year 18: No playoffs. Decided to retire.

Career Averages: PPG 23.6, 6.3 REB, 4.9 AST, 2.5 STL, 1.3 BLK, 1476 Games Played

[SwaggerCoach]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I'm doing a 20 season simulation with 75 overall 19 year old SG with 85 potential since you asked. It's pretty crude since I'm not comparing it to anything really. I'll sim 20 seasons and give you the results.

I'll be documenting him a little more heavily since I'm only having to follow one player. I.E. achievemts, and such. Just to see how he turns out.

____________________________________________

Update:

Below is a Google Document following the Potential, and player progression of a RANDOMLY generated guy in a RANDOM draft class.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...NOWEE&hl=en_US

Career Accomplishments:
1 Time NBA Champion
5 Time NBA MVP
1 Time NBA Finals MVP
16 time NBA All-Star
1 Time All-NBA Second Team
8 Time NBA DPOY
All-Rookie First Team
12 Time ALL-NBA First Team
15 Time All-Defensive First Team

Sidenotes: He spent his whole career on New Jersey and I made zero signings or trades. Also, Brook Lopez and Deron Williams ended up retiring here. Not sure how much their presence had to do with his potential. He averaged 35 MPG, and here are some things pertaining to developement. I'll end up doing another sometime soon with a lot more players.

Post season potential notes.

Spoiler

After year 1: Potential grade rose from an A- to an A. Potential attribute rose from 85 to an 88.

After year 2: Potential grade rose from A to an A+. Potential attribute rose from 88 to 91.

After year 3: The Nets made the playoffs with the 6th seed and got beat in 7 in the 1st round. Potential grade, still at an A+. Potential attribute from 91 to 93.

After year 4: 4th seed in the East. Swept NY in the 1st round, beat Boston in 5 in the 2nd round, and lost to Milwaukee in 7 in the ECF. Potential attribute from 93 to 95.

After year 5: WOW. He got League MVP. 21.8 PPG, 7 REB, 5.6 AST. 2.5 STL, 1.2 BLK, 46% on FGs. 3rd Seed in the East. Lost in the Finals in 5. Noticed that the potential attribute finally stopped going up by 2 every year. Potential attribute only went to 96 this year.

After year 6: 3rd seed playoff spot, and lost in 7 in the 1st round. (Kinda surprising considering last year.) Potential attribute stayed at 96.

After Year 7: 1st Seed in the East. Won in 7 in the first round, swept in the 2nd. Potential attribute went to 97.

After Year 8: Potential attribute still at 97. Finally won an NBA Title.

After Year 9: Kevin Durant broke the MVP streak. (Won MVP every year since his first time receiving it.) 1st round loss in 7. Potential grade disappeared finally. Interesting. Potential attribute still at 97 though.

After Year 10: A scoring title surprisingly only averaging 26.8, and KD at 26.2 PPG. 5th seed, 2nd round loss in 5. 97 potential attribute.

After Year 11: 8th seed, 1st round loss in 5. Potential still cruising at a 97.

After year 12: 8th seed, 1st round loss in 6. Once again, potential is still 97.

After year 13: No playoffs, potential attribute drops to 96.

After Year 14: No playoffs, potential attribute drops to 95.

After Year 15: No Playoffs. Potential is at a 92.

After Year 16: Just first NBA and Def Team this year, no playoffs. Pot. 90

After Year 17: No post season awards or teams. No playoffs. Potential 87.

After Year 18: No playoffs. Decided to retire.

Career Averages: PPG 23.6, 6.3 REB, 4.9 AST, 2.5 STL, 1.3 BLK, 1476 Games Played

Awesome work - what were the OVL RATING changes year to year?