MyTeam Mobile Discussion

[MITchip]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

What's the probability that anyone else is having trouble logging on today? (Hint: it's either 0 or 1)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[fierzer]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

but an expected rate is not a fixed rate.

best explanation in a nutshell

[brady5]

Myteam mobile discussion

Yeah i know most of u guys r in the same

Tier. If i was t in the season than it would be up for grabs with up to 10 people possibly with a chance to win. Again sorry i will resume informing people before i start seasons. Hate being a buzz killer.

Haha nah, it's not your fault, my past five seasons were like this. But again, I know, from NW's posts, that they're working on it. Post what you get when you win in four days yeah? Ha.

Btw that's a hell of a team.

[doctorhay53]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

This thread is like a who's who of people who don't understand statistics at all.

[Abrissbirne]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

This thread is like a who's who of people who don't understand statistics at all.

yup But Anchen cleared everything up perfectly, there is no way someone stil doesnt get it.

[Kev.Pro.C]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

You didn't understand his answer. I'll try this again to give an idea of how it is programmed and how random chance actually works as opposed to how the human brain thinks it should be.

First, there is no pool of cards given out. There is not a fixed "rate" epics are given out. Ie there is not 1 epic given out every 1000 picks requested to the server, so nobody is "stealing" your epic or legendary. What is fixed is a fixed probability. Let us take a six sided die. Assume it is a fair die. So the probability of rolling any number is 1/6, right? Let's say you roll the die 12 times. You get these numbers:

1 5 6 3 5 4 2 2 3 4 2 3

Hey you only got 1 and 6 once! What is your probability of getting a 1 or 6 on your next roll? 2/6. You don't get a bonus for chance to get a 1 or 6 for not getting one in your previous 12 rolls. That would not be a. "Fixed" probability but a biased or variable probability. Let's take an extreme possibility. You roll 12 times again. It comes up like this:

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

If the probability is fixed, what's it he chance you get a 1 in your next roll? 1/6. For added bonus, if this is the order they were rolled, both of these sequences had an *equal* probability of occurring. If you want to read a bit, look up permutations in statistics.

How does this apply to the game? I am taking nwgamedad at face value here. Every time you get a "energy" or rare it is an *independent* event. What other people did before doesn't matter. You have a fixed *probability* but not a fixed *rate* to get an epic or legendary. Over a sufficiently large sample size, the actual results will approach a "rate" close to the probability. However the numbers are. Be mindful that given the probabilities in this game no player, not even eyegotsoul, is close to the number probably that could be considered a "large sample size". To further explain your example of the epic event, consider two things: one, the people who "reported" their results. This is most likely a combination of lucky players (got 3 or 4 epics in a short time) or unlucky players (0 or 1 epics in 1000 picks). Consider there is a massive nameless (to us) population who maybe drafted 50 picks and got 0 or 1. This is a sort of example of "the vocal minorities". If they kept statistics of that time you might see that there was probably something of a spike in epics but any individual player may not feel that.

I guess the important thing you need to differentiate is "rate" vs "probability".

wow,now i really think you should atleast teach highschool stats class....
very well explained the nature of this game. It's not luck based, just RNG(random number generator) based.

If any of you guys ever played any of those Korean MMORPG games/or any cellphone game with gear upgrade system, you'll find that 'luck' in this game to be nice and gentle..

[RickMC2]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Enough of the statistics talk. Let's bring on the Next rivals mode already. Who are the teams, what are the "New" tier rewards? Let's go!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[roDman7]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

i hope nwgamedad is reading all these posts by anchen fierzer mfresh and some others. some of these suggestions about rivals makes alot of sense

[NWGameDad]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

If I understand NWGameDad's post correctly, the part I liked best was defined rewards. Have a worthless Pau Epic? Maybe play to 3rd or 4th tier to Pro him! Need a second Rare Sessions to fill your catalog? Aim for the 6th tier. Makes things a little more strategic for those of us who will never crack the top 100.

As always, NWGameDad, I appreciate the info and the effort. I was in the "packs purchased lowers Epic/Legendary drop rate" camp based on my own experience. Thanks for telling me I was wrong.

One clarification I would like to ask for:



Is that correct? Your chances of getting an Epic or better from a CHI team pack are three times the chance with a MIN team pack?
CHI - 5L, 6E, 5R, 5U, and 1C = 22 cards, 11 E or L.
MIN - 0L, 2E, 3R, 6U, and 1C = 12 cards, 2 E or L.

No, that is not correct. I was answering the question as to whether certain Rare or Epic players drop more frequently. In the context, of Team and Division packs certain players do drop more frequently just because the rules of those packs limits which players drop. It does NOT mean that a Rare or Epic rarity card will drop more frequently based on your Team selection though. They are independent rolls basically.


For example, if I set my team to Chicago and I purchase 10 player packs, those 10 cards will draw from the entire pool of Common -> Epic cards. Not likely I will see dupe players since the pool is so large. However, the chances of the card being a Common, Uncommon, Rare, or Epic are still a fixed percentage.


Now if I purchased 10 Team packs, those 10 cards come from the Chicago Bulls only. The chances of a Common, Uncommon, Rare, or Epic are still the same fixed percentage as Player packs, but when I get a card in that rarity it will only look at my chosen team (the Bulls) to figure out which player I get. Since the Team pool is smaller, the likelihood of getting the same player in 10 cards is pretty high. However, that doesn't affect the odds of that player being Common -> Epic.


Bottom line, no team is more likely to get an Epic vs. any other team. That chance is not based on how many players in each rarity are on that team. Hopefully that helps you understand it a bit better.


NWGameDad
Senior Producer
Cat Daddy Games

[Anchen]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

No, that is not correct. I was answering the question as to whether certain Rare or Epic players drop more frequently. In the context, of Team and Division packs certain players do drop more frequently just because the rules of those packs limits which players drop. It does NOT mean that a Rare or Epic rarity card will drop more frequently based on your Team selection though. They are independent rolls basically.


For example, if I set my team to Chicago and I purchase 10 player packs, those 10 cards will draw from the entire pool of Common -> Epic cards. Not likely I will see dupe players since the pool is so large. However, the chances of the card being a Common, Uncommon, Rare, or Epic are still a fixed percentage.


Now if I purchased 10 Team packs, those 10 cards come from the Chicago Bulls only. The chances of a Common, Uncommon, Rare, or Epic are still the same fixed percentage as Player packs, but when I get a card in that rarity it will only look at my chosen team (the Bulls) to figure out which player I get. Since the Team pool is smaller, the likelihood of getting the same player in 10 cards is pretty high. However, that doesn't affect the odds of that player being Common -> Epic.


Bottom line, no team is more likely to get an Epic vs. any other team. That chance is not based on how many players in each rarity are on that team. Hopefully that helps you understand it a bit better.


NWGameDad
Senior Producer
Cat Daddy Games

Do have a question on this. The pelicans have no commons. What happens to their "common" rolls for team packs.

[doctorhay53]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

I've seen alot of discussion about how people build their quick game lineups, so I thought I would chime in on my personal strategy.

I keep all of my cards and their stats in a text file. I read in this text file into a python program, and I generate all possible combinations of 5 cards. I loop over all possible combinations and find the 5 cards that maximizes the total of the top 2 players in every stat and stat combination.

I've been doing it this way for a long time and I have a quick game record of 8618-1190. Most of the losses came very early on in playing the game. I am able to win almost all quick games without going to overtime. In the rivals event, I would sometimes pick a 3 pointer if the 5 pointer had way too many total games played. I figured 3 points is better than 0.

I also generate season lineups this way by simply restricting the selection of players to have 1 from each position. I also have a "matchup" function which takes the total stats in each category for an opponent, and maximizes the total difference between our decks. So for instance, if a player in the playoffs has much better cards than me, this function usually suggests stacking up on the 2 stats that they are worst in. I have pushed several people with ~100-500 better total stats than me to 7 games with this strategy. I have yet to luck into a win (and there is some guessing involved as people change their lineups when they realize how I am beating them).

In case people were wondering my current quick game lineup with this method is Rubio, Avery Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Anthony Davis. I have Doc Rivers but not Jason kidd, and no thaddeus young still.

[Shokase]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Haha nah, it's not your fault, my past five seasons were like this. But again, I know, from NW's posts, that they're working on it. Post what you get when you win in four days yeah? Ha.

Btw that's a hell of a team.

Oh i will post that shiny david west or anothner useless pf or a center that i get every season lol.

[Hawkeye75]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Well it's not a Legendary but it was nice to draft a couple of these within 30 min of each other. Even if I can't use them right away...






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Gundamduo]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

I have a couple quick questions for NW. First, I appreciate you taking your time to read the forums and answer some burning questions. Don't see that much care from Dev's these day. Second, are you able to say when/how matchmaking for seasons will change (rough estimate works) and when the new info for the next rivals event will be released? Oh and for those of us that spent tons of time just to get into the top 20 for the last one, will we have to do the same again....?

[Shokase]

re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

I have a couple quick questions for NW. First, I appreciate you taking your time to read the forums and answer some burning questions. Don't see that much care from Dev's these day. Second, are you able to say when/how matchmaking for seasons will change (rough estimate works) and when the new info for the next rivals event will be released? Oh and for those of us that spent tons of time just to get into the top 20 for the last one, will we have to do the same again....?

Ill answer some questions for u.

The next rival event he said that he will tell us all the info on teams and rewards shortly.

Your last question is easy of course u will have to spend that muxh time. The 20th ranked person had 23,000 points so at best it will go down to 20,000 (which i doubt will happen). So expect 22,000 point to even have a chance at top 20.