Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

[Anchen]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

You're Numbers are a bit off... I don't know why I enjoy math soo much lol

Likelihood of an Epic (Epics Drafted Divided by Draft Picks) Yields Fraction
22/30,000 = .00073%

Average Picks per Epic (1 Divided by Epic Percentage) Yields Whole Number
1/.00076 = 1,369.8 rounded to 1,370

You draft an epic on average once every 1,370 draft picks, or 685 games won.

Likelihood of a Legendary (Legends Drafted Divided by Draft Picks) Yields Fraction
2/30,000 = .000066%

Average Picks per Legendary (1 Divided by Legend Percentage) Yields Whole Number
1/.000066 = 15,151.51 rounded to 15,152

You draft an Legendary on average once every 15,152 draft picks, or 7,576 games won.

Just a note, percentages if you actually put the % sign should be multiplied by 100. Ie a probability of 1 is 100%. A probability of .00073 is .073%. So I think his % is correct (I'm going to assume he used his actual picks which is over 30000). This is nitpicking in a way but just to be clear

[mfresh94]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Wow! After going 3000 picks or so without epics, i hace drafted 2 grangers in an hour... Sooo happy!!!



Cam anyone pin the draft pick statistics spreadsheet on the First post?



Thanks


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2 grangers in an hour! That is insanely awesome lol. Congrats !


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[kaykay4se7en]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

2 grangers in an hour! That is insanely awesome lol. Congrats !


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Congrats! Last night I drafted 2 epics within 10 min. Not to mention the 9/10 epics I drafted during the rivals event.

[TomBlachek]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Just a note, percentages if you actually put the % sign should be multiplied by 100. Ie a probability of 1 is 100%. A probability of .00073 is .073%. So I think his % is correct (I'm going to assume he used his actual picks which is over 30000). This is nitpicking in a way but just to be clear

I know he used his actual draft figure, but I took the milestone he gave us and calculated from there.

It is misleading that I used a percentage sign, as the math I did was not based on fractions of 100... but In my instance the 73 occurs as a ten thousandth where as you'rs occurs as a hundredth. Which would require additional steps in the formula to come to the right result.

I opted for brevity with the way I set it up.

[MrChat138]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Your numbers are weird. If you pulled 22 epics in 30000 picks then your odds are 30000:22 or broken down to about 1364:1. Not sure where you are getting 132,454.

I followed a formula for determining odds using a sample but saw where I d***ed it up... forgot to divide by 100 for the percentage to decimal so yeah, it would be 132454/100. FML I need to go back to school

[The_Josh]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

I've been keeping track of what epics I've drafted and won. As of now I'm at 19 Epics drafted and 8 won in 5 season wins. I'm averaging 1 epic in every 1300 or so picks as of right now. I did a quick position breakdown of how if I'm leaning heavy one way or the other. I've drafted 4 PG, 4 SG, 3 SF, 3 PF (2 of them are Horace Grant), 2 Centers, and 2 Supports (both during this last rivals).

[ii00000000]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

IMG_2733[1].jpg

Fairly sure its EyegotSoul, i caught you sleeping twice, but i think i'm going to tank the season and hope for a power forward. Should have went for the rivals timbo instead of robinson haha but yao doesn't count as a legendary, or even an epic pro for that matter so i was short in that spot as well.

Tanking also takes some prep time now, i have to make that decision at least 3 or 4 games out if i put everyone out of position. Last season i made the call 12 games out, still won the last 12 games but had down in the 1000 range by the times playoff started. Ended up with 2 uncommons. This is bound to work one time, i hope haha. -i know first world problems, i'm complaining about tanking-

[MrChat138]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Yea , thank god your not a mathematician , lol , every body here gets a epic per at least every few thousand picks , if your numbers where right it would take about 65k wins to get an epic


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If it makes you feel better... I know more about an M4 than I do statistics

[MrChat138]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

If it makes you feel better... I know more about an M4 than I do statistics

By this I mean I am a Marine so I am naturally horrible at math LOL

[AIRALEX]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

That should be in the FAQ, tanking the season and stuff like that. I'm not quite sure what that means... I just won one single season lol and I'm 3492/1055 and the knowledge would come in handy

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[MITchip]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Adding MrChat's numbers to the spreadsheet puts it at 1.4 million picks, and ballpark odds, taking into account the stress test, are as follows:

Chance of epic or better is 1:2,150 picks or about 1 of every 170 boards

Chance of Epic being legendary is about 1:13.25, or every 2,275 boards or every 28,500 picks


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[MrChat138]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Adding MrChat's numbers to the spreadsheet puts it at 1.4 million picks, and ballpark odds, taking into account the stress test, are as follows:

Chance of epic or better is 1:2,150 picks or about 1 of every 170 boards

Chance of Epic being legendary is about 1:13.25, or every 2,275 boards or every 28,500 picks


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Thanks man! I think we all can see that I should be NOWHERE near touching the spreadsheet with my math LOL

[MITchip]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

The legendary rate may not be spot on, but I think it's a fair estimate. The only one with enough picks to be well below pace is EyeGotSoul, and only a few players are well above pace (Cisco, mfresh94, Abrissbirne, Hufty)


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[killerx3456]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Would anyone be able to help me with the question I asked a few pages back?

[The_Josh]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

What was the question?