Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thoughts?)

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  • Jano
    You Dead Wrong
    • May 2004
    • 3161

    #1

    Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thoughts?)

    Most championship teams have at least two players from the list of the best 95 players in NBA history on their roster in their prime. Smart GMs understand the superstar thesis and take steps to increase their odds dramatically.


    Every single NBA champion has been led by a player on this list. So if your team does not have as its best player one of these guys, or someone likely to get on the list, your chances are virtually nil.


    It is not just having a platinum or gold superstar that matters, it is having additional superstars that separates the champions from the pretenders.


    The Superstar Theory does not explain who will win every title before the season or before the playoffs; it simply explains who is in legitimate contention, and provides guidance to teams that would like to become legitimate contenders.


    Here are some links to what I found to be an interesting set of articles. This guy set out to objectively define what is an NBA superstar and how important having one is to winning a championship.

    He start the ranking of superstars (117 in total) with the 1955-1956 NBA season reason being that's when MVP's were handed out. You can find the list of 117 superstars in the first link

    He breaks down his ranking with a number of different factors. I'll list them out for those that don't want to read... hopefully I don't forget anything.

    MVP

    MVP: 16 points

    MVP 2nd: 14 points

    MVP 3rd: 12 points

    MVP 4th: 10 points

    MVP 5th: 8 points

    MVP 6th-10th: 6 points

    MVP 11th-15th: 4 points

    All-NBA

    First team All-NBA: 10 points

    Second team All-NBA: 6 points

    Third team All-NBA: 4 points

    All-Defense

    First team All-Defense: 4 points

    Second-team All-Defense: 3 points

    Additional two points for the player selected Defensive Player of the Year

    I give a single point for every year a player makes an NBA All-Star team for the mid-season game.

    He doesn't count the ABA years but attempts to solve this problem by
    doing the ranking not by the total number of points accrued during a career, but rather by taking a player’s total number of points and dividing it by the number of seasons they played at least 1,900 minutes. (For the two strike and lockout shortened seasons of 1998-99 and 2011-12, I prorated the minutes.)
    Attempts to deal with the problems averaging results can cause (guys with shorter careers beating out guys with longer careers) by

    by making the number of qualifying seasons at eight for a player to make the top of the list. Those players whose annual totals qualify but who do not have eight qualifying seasons, like Bill Walton, are on the list, but they are ranked after those players who did have eight qualifying seasons.

    I keep active players in the main list, under the assumption that they will all eventually get eight qualifying seasons, unless, like Jermaine O’Neal, it is obvious they will never play 1,900 minutes in a season again. Also, guys like Cousy and Sharman who had enough active seasons before 1955-56 to qualify make the main list. No reason to penalize their ranking.
    Also breaks the 117 players into 4 groups (Platinum, Gold, Silver, & Bronze)

    I wanted to share this articles because I personally dound it interesting that he was able to put it together. I've never seen something like this so it was a cool read. And it was interesting that every team that has won has had a superstar of some caliber.

    I just found it to be a fun read and an interesting take on things everyone debates about when it comes to "what it takes to win a ring." So, what are you guys thoughts on it?

    A nice summary for the second article:

    All but one of the losers in the NBA Finals since 1955-56 have featured one of these superstars. (The 1970 Bullets, who lost in the Finals, had superstar Wes Unseld as their 2nd best player, and non-superstar Earl Monroe as their best player.) The exception? The 2000 Pacers. So dig this: only one of the 116 teams that have played in the NBA Finals did not have a player from the superstar list in his functional prime. There is more: Eighty percent of the 116 teams that lost in the conference finals over the past 57 years – the first two losers in the NBA’s “final four” so to speak – were led by players from this list.

    And that barely begins to capture was a gated community NBA championships live in. The closer to the top of the superstar 95 list, the more likely a player is to being the best player on a championship team. The closer to the bottom of this list of superstars, the more likely the player is on the outside looking in. Fully 107 of the 116 Finals teams had at least a qualifying silver medal superstar as their best player; i.e. basically an all-time top 60 player. And if a team does not have a player is his prime from this list, or soon to be on this list, they have but a slim chance to even make the conference finals, let alone dream about playing in the finals or winning a title.
    Some interesting quotes from the 3rd article:

    The seven teams that have won titles without a platinum or gold medal superstar are often called “ensemble” teams because they had a cast where the third or fourth player was not that much worse than the first or second player.

    One of the seven “ensemble” champions was led by Rick Barry, and had he spent the five seasons he was out of the NBA pursuing an ABA career from age 23 to age 28 he would certainly be a top-30 gold medal player. So toss that one out.

    Two of remaining seven “ensemble” champions—the legendary Bad Boy Pistons of 1989 and 1990—had two silver and one bronze superstar on them. There are no present NBA teams that have two silver and one bronze superstar in their primes on their roster. No one is close. Those were truly great teams.
    Last edited by Jano; 08-28-2013, 05:01 PM.
  • ProfessaPackMan
    Bamma
    • Mar 2008
    • 63852

    #2
    Re: Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thought

    I'll check this out but you might want to add a Cliff Notes version for the ones who won't/don't want to read thru each link, lol.
    #RespectTheCulture

    Comment

    • Jano
      You Dead Wrong
      • May 2004
      • 3161

      #3
      Re: Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thought

      Yea I did my best for the first link still gotta do the other 5 haha

      Comment

      • Dice
        Sitting by the door
        • Jul 2002
        • 6627

        #4
        Re: Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thought

        Looks a lot like the article Robert McChesney did in 2006, titled "The Gold Medal Superstar Theory and NBA Championships"

        http://nbadraft.net/mcchesney001.html
        I have more respect for a man who let's me know where he stands, even if he's wrong. Than the one who comes up like an angel and is nothing but a devil. - Malcolm X

        Comment

        • Jano
          You Dead Wrong
          • May 2004
          • 3161

          #5
          Re: Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thought

          I'll have to read that one but at first glance it seems like the Real GM one may be a bit more extensive with how the players are ranked.. but again I'll have to read thru it know for sure.

          Comment

          • 24ct
            Pro
            • Sep 2012
            • 884

            #6
            Re: Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thought

            Read part of this article, but I think we all know...the gold is sold to where the money goes.

            BOS & LA have THEE most titles. These TWO teams actually have more titles combined than the ENTIRE league combined. Say what you want about coaching and players. I'll say it again...the gold is sold where the money goes. Don't ever forget the NBA is a BUSINESS...and David Stern himself called it 'Sports Entertainment' ... Sound a little Vince McMahon-ish??

            Comment

            • 702
              Rookie
              • Aug 2005
              • 1165

              #7
              Re: Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thought

              Think this is just a really overdone way of saying what any knowledgeable basketball fan knows; it takes multiple great players to win titles. All the data hammers it home more, but don't think this article is groundbreaking.

              Comment

              • Jano
                You Dead Wrong
                • May 2004
                • 3161

                #8
                Re: Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thought

                Originally posted by 702
                Think this is just a really overdone way of saying what any knowledgeable basketball fan knows; it takes multiple great players to win titles. All the data hammers it home more, but don't think this article is groundbreaking.
                That's what made the article so fascinating to me. He compiled all that data and really thought it out, I give it up to him for the dedication there.

                Comment

                • Sam Marlowe
                  Banned
                  • Aug 2010
                  • 1230

                  #9
                  Re: Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thought

                  I think his point is that superstars matter even more than people think. Its why wasting opportunities to get them, or overvalued talent can be so crippling. James Harden and Melo are two great examples. OKC may well have cost themselves the opportunity at having a dynasty by allowing luxury tax fears to override basketball sense. NY crippled itself to acquire what in the end will be an ultra effective but functionally one way player in Melo (let alone STAT). I think most teams make the mistake of not recognizing who's who.

                  Comment

                  • Sam Marlowe
                    Banned
                    • Aug 2010
                    • 1230

                    #10
                    Re: Elrod Enchilada's Superstar Theory: Keys to contending and winning Rings (Thought

                    What did you think of his All Time list Jano? I liked how he went about putting it together

                    Comment

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