The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

[BringTheHeat]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB100...?mg=reno64-wsj

After analyzing shots in better detail—they surveyed more than 70,000 from the last NBA season and cross-referenced them against play-by-play summaries—the authors say a player can be more likely, not less likely, to make his next shot if he has made several in row. Their hot-hand estimate ranges from a 1.2 to a 2.4 percentage-point increase in likelihood.

The findings may have persuaded skeptics to reconsider their position. Cornell psychology professor Thomas Gilovich, the lead author on a 1985 paper that found no evidence of streak shooting, said this paper has intrigued him in a way that similar efforts haven't.

"It's opening up a new chapter in this 30-year-long tale," he said, "and it may be the most interesting chapter."

Looks like statistically..and mentally, evidence does support it.

Thoughts? What's your favorite "hot hand" or "in the zone" game?

One of my favorites:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/cB-FGLPT-fo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Sorry SF.

[ThatKidNamedTae]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

Knicks vs Bulls April 8th, 2012

Melo hit a 3 to send it to overtime and a three to win it in overtime. Had 43 that game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEkTobMjpTc

[The 24th Letter]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

It just can't be measures by statistics man...either way...

If you've played basketball...you've felt the hot hand....

[ehh]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

Yep, you don't even have to look at the damn rim when you're in the zone. Not a thing going through your mind. Everything is smooth and effortless.

[z Revis]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

I never knew people actually didn't think it existed.

[ojandpizza]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

I never knew people actually didn't think it existed.

Yeah I'm with you on this one. When I'm in a "zone" it's more than just a good shooting day. I can do whatever I want with the ball and it'll drop in the net lol.

[return.specialist]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

I don't 'think' it exists. However, I have not read this article so can't comment on it.

[BringTheHeat]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

I agree that it exists. It's just cool that it's eventually going to be able to be measured. These advanced stats and metrics are really interesting.

I'd imagine that someday there'll be a "clutch" measurement. Like at the draft workout a machine can be hooked up to a player to see how they respond to stress and pressure..maybe that's too sci-fi though.

So what are some of your favorite hot hand games or moments? IRL or NBA.

[ojandpizza]

The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

Lots of Bird and Jordan games.. Those guys just took having a "hot hand" to another level.. Anybody can get hot, but they could always overcome seemingly anything the other team threw at them.

The most recent game I can think of would be LeBron vs. the Pistons.. That was just one of those eye popping and draw dropping moments. Doing it in every way against any defense, double teams, playoffs, ridiculous game..

His celtics games two years ago as well.. I wouldn't really consider it a "hot hand" game, but he was just in some kind of zone that night. Scoring, defense, rebounding... Just incredible one man dominance.

[lilteapot]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

For me the zone is when I am able to hit the rim.

[canesfins]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

The people that don't believe it exists are the ones that never played any level of competitive basketball.

[SteelersFreak]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

I'll never be upset at watching that Brandon Roy footage.

Now if the Blazers had have come back and won the series it obviously would be a different story.

On topic now, there's clearly a hot hand advatange. Anyone that has played basketball has seen it or experienced it themselves. I'm a shooter, there's not a whole lot else I do on the court besides try to play hard on defense and make smart passes on offense, and sometimes you just go into a zone. It's not some premeditated thing, almost every time it's happened with me it's started on a wide open three or an easy bucket. It's all about confidence. And when you've got shots raining in you're going to find that you start making shots you don't normally start making. For me, when I get the hot hand I'll be able to pull up in transition and stroke a three, shoot over someone a stroke a three, take an off balance shot, my entire game becomes better. And that's coming from someone who didn't even play high school basketball so you can imagine what this is like for an NBA player.

It's the whole reason why guys that don't normally score a lot have nights where they just go off.

[return.specialist]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

Judging by the description the OP provided, the data was culled from NBA games. The 1985 study used players from Cornell and, if my recall is accurate, there have been 3 players go from cornell to the League--in the 1950s nonetheless. Thus, i'm no surprised that the best players in the world appear to exhibit a hot-hand effect and Cornell players didn't.

[Streaky McFloorburn]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

Judging by the description the OP provided, the data was culled from NBA games. The 1985 study used players from Cornell and, if my recall is accurate, there have been 3 players go from cornell to the League--in the 1950s nonetheless. Thus, i'm no surprised that the best players in the world appear to exhibit a hot-hand effect and Cornell players didn't.

The thing is, enough of the Cornell players did exhibit a hot-hand that it was clear their methodology for concluding it didn't exist was deeply flawed. You can find the study pretty easily, including by searching these forums for the last thread on this topic, but I'll post the link again anyway. The relevant stats are on page 13.

http://www.cs.colorado.edu/~mozer/Teaching/syllabi/7782/readings/gilovich%20vallone%20tversky.pdf

The data clearly shows that the effect was extremely profound for one shooter in the study, and more than marginally present for many others. I might be able to understand dismissing the one flamethrower (player 9) as an outlier if their results were less linear, but the fact that he went 72%/79%/83% following 1, 2, and 3 consecutive makes while shooting 54% overall is exactly what everyone here knows the hot hand looks like.

It was just one of many clues that they were going to justify the outcome they wanted through whatever means necessary. That Gilovich is still trying to save face after 30 years of promoting this absurdity doesn't surprise me, but at least he's starting to crack.

I'm just happy the consensus is firmly in the corner of first-hand knowledge and common sense this time around. I promise not to write another word on the matter.

[return.specialist]

Re: The Hot Hand effect..does it exist? New evidence suggests it.

Did you and I debate this in an earlier thread?