2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

Collapse

Recommended Videos

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • inkcil
    All Star
    • Jul 2002
    • 5253

    #16
    Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

    Originally posted by dubcity
    inkcil about to go in on Curry like georgiafan does with Trey Young lol.
    Lol man I hope I don't need to. I am probably the biggest Curry fan on these boards. I just root for him to finish "checking some of the boxes" that if unchecked, will give the haters a reason to keep him out of the Top 10 All Time when his career is over. Yes I have him Top 10 (10th actually) so I expect him to show up big time (defined as the unquestionable Finals MVP) in a Finals for once.
    Unofficial OS Ambassador of "CPU vs. CPU"

    Now Playing:

    XB1 (Forza Motorsport 6 and Horizon 2)
    Switch (Mario Kart and Zelda)
    PS3 (old 2k games and the Show)

    Comment

    • jfsolo
      Live Action, please?
      • May 2003
      • 12965

      #17
      Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

      Originally posted by dubcity
      inkcil about to go in on Curry like georgiafan does with Trey Young lol.
      I appreciate when a fan of the Warriors criticizes him it somewhat balances out the incessant fawning that he gets from non Warriors fans.
      Jordan Mychal Lemos
      @crypticjordan

      Do this today: Instead of $%*#!@& on a game you're not going to play or movie you're not going to watch, say something good about a piece of media you're excited about.

      Do the same thing tomorrow. And the next. Now do it forever.

      Comment

      • ProfessaPackMan
        Bamma
        • Mar 2008
        • 63852

        #18
        Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

        Originally posted by dubcity
        inkcil about to go in on Curry like georgiafan does with Trey Young lol.
        So he gonna be asking to trade Curry if they come up short then, right?
        #RespectTheCulture

        Comment

        • TMagic
          G.O.A.T.
          • Apr 2007
          • 7550

          #19
          Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

          ESPN has Boston at 86.5% chance of winning the title vs the Dubs 13.5%

          FiveThirtyEight has it about the same...80:20 in favor of Boston

          Anyone know much about these numbers and their accuracy?

          Just odd to me when the Warriors are favorites by sports books and the public at large and GS has homecourt advantage
          PSN: TMagic_01

          Twitter: @ThoseFools

          YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEC...cd41cJK2238sIA

          Comment

          • Master Live 013
            Hall Of Fame
            • Oct 2013
            • 12425

            #20
            Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

            Warriors are a slight favorite, and the Celtics have been really good on the road since January and on the Playoffs. That's why I asked about the series ending in no more than 5. Warriors have the lowest odds for a favorite since the 2013-2014 Spurs and before that the 2005-2006 Mavs.
            OSHA Inspector for the NBA.

            Comment

            • ojandpizza
              Hall Of Fame
              • Apr 2011
              • 29807

              #21
              Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

              Originally posted by TMagic
              ESPN has Boston at 86.5% chance of winning the title vs the Dubs 13.5%

              FiveThirtyEight has it about the same...80:20 in favor of Boston

              Anyone know much about these numbers and their accuracy?

              Just odd to me when the Warriors are favorites by sports books and the public at large and GS has homecourt advantage

              I believe FiveThirtyEight uses RAPTOR and/or player projections and ESPN is using BPI, both to basically run simulations on player production vs previous rounds. Think all of those factor in opponent strength so currently Golden State playing Dallas with a huge fall off after Luka, Memphis with no Ja, and Denver with piles of dog **** after Joker I would assume their evaluations are basically being penalized for having an “easy” road thus far.

              I might be way off on that lol

              Comment

              • cima
                Hall Of Fame
                • Sep 2004
                • 13478

                #22
                Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

                Originally posted by TMagic
                ESPN has Boston at 86.5% chance of winning the title vs the Dubs 13.5%

                FiveThirtyEight has it about the same...80:20 in favor of Boston

                Anyone know much about these numbers and their accuracy?

                Just odd to me when the Warriors are favorites by sports books and the public at large and GS has homecourt advantage
                Bookies vs nerds

                Comment

                • dubcity
                  Hall Of Fame
                  • May 2012
                  • 17874

                  #23
                  Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

                  Originally posted by cima
                  Bookies vs nerds
                  I trust bookies more lol. People can run a million simulations using whatever model they want based on limited past game sample sizes, and I still won't care. If the 85% probability ends up being correct it's somehow proof that it works, but if it doesn't it's just a model based on numbers and it can never actually be wrong.

                  How do you run a model on how all of these guys are going to be feeling mentally/emotionally/physically when they go out there on any given night.

                  Comment

                  • ojandpizza
                    Hall Of Fame
                    • Apr 2011
                    • 29807

                    #24
                    2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

                    Originally posted by dubcity
                    I trust bookies more lol. People can run a million simulations using whatever model they want based on limited past game sample sizes, and I still won't care. If the 85% probability ends up being correct it's somehow proof that it works, but if it doesn't it's just a model based on numbers and it can never actually be wrong.

                    How do you run a model on how all of these guys are going to be feeling mentally/emotionally/physically when they go out there on any given night.

                    While all this is true that’s why they are meant to be predictions and not to be taken as the gospel/fact.

                    If I understood correctly both models were “assuming” teams current rotations were at full strength. So any injury, or feeling mentally/emotionally that would throw them off their expected A game would go against the predictions as of todays date.

                    I think some of those type of stats can be useful over a certain period of time/used in the right context. But to guess a finals winner based on a relatively small sample size like this it’s most likely pretty worthless. But I think ultimately peoples issue with stuff like this is that they just take it for more than what it really is when they see it. Instead of “oh interesting”, we get “wow these damn nerds no way can this be right” when in reality it’s not meant to be taken THAT serious to begin with. Marginal guides more so than “this means this and it’s a fact”.

                    Somewhat like you’re example of how a player feels. Say Draymond gets the flu and they lose that game. Obviously that couldn’t be factored in to a prediction like this. But that doesn’t make the stat any less right/wrong than our opinions really either because none of us could have predicted that Draymond would get the flu either.. but because it’s a number, a stat we can see, we don’t really give it the same benefit of the doubt as we do when we look at things ourselves and say “well I didn’t expect that to happen”.. I think people treat them a bit too literally, and get caught up in it being a “number” and not “hoops” that it gets lost a bit how closely related a lot of these nerd stats/predictions are to actual stats/outcomes/eye tests/etc.

                    I will say FiveThirtyEight’s model did have Boston, Phoenix, Bucks, Dubs as the top 4 at the start of the playoffs. If you were to factor in Middleton eventually getting hurt and Phoenix’s somewhat unexpected collapse it seems like the prediction was pretty solid. Heat were next and they were in the conference finals too. By the April 26 model update (about a week after the Middleton injury) it had already shifted to Boston, Phoenix, Golden State. Boston were the “favorites” from the start and they’ve made it to the finals while having the best net rating and largest margin of victory and it did accurately predict that better than any of us lol.

                    There is an element of Golden State hasn’t really had to be fully “dialed in” to perfection to beat the teams they’ve played thus far. If you were to assume they can get to that against better teams and will (which I do and expect exactly that to happen) then that is obviously something that these predictions can’t predict, some team “flipping the switch” per se.

                    Comment

                    • ProfessaPackMan
                      Bamma
                      • Mar 2008
                      • 63852

                      #25
                      Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

                      Originally posted by cima
                      Bookies vs nerds
                      Tried to tell ya Brother Cima, the Nerds are ruining everything we enjoy about this sport.

                      They wanna run this sport with their Calculators because they always got picked last as a kid.

                      But yeah, hoping Golden State can pull this one out. The way Tatum has been playing this entire postseason though is the main reason why I think Boston has more than a significant chance to pull this out.
                      #RespectTheCulture

                      Comment

                      • ojandpizza
                        Hall Of Fame
                        • Apr 2011
                        • 29807

                        #26
                        Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics



                        [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

                        Comment

                        • BleacherBum2310
                          All Star
                          • Aug 2010
                          • 7107

                          #27
                          Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

                          this series going 5 would incredibly surprise me this seems like a series going 6 or 7 barring health. i wouldn't let the previous series influence you too much. Matchups are different. Cs also will not be playing a drop in this one. dubs movement will be a test for sure but I also think people are down on the Cs offense and they can play even better there so i wouldn't be shocked if they leveled up there. I am going Cs in 7 well because but i won't be shocked one way or the other. These 2 are evenly matched.
                          Wolverines Packers Cubs Celtics

                          Comment

                          • BleacherBum2310
                            All Star
                            • Aug 2010
                            • 7107

                            #28
                            Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

                            Originally posted by TMagic
                            ESPN has Boston at 86.5% chance of winning the title vs the Dubs 13.5%

                            FiveThirtyEight has it about the same...80:20 in favor of Boston

                            Anyone know much about these numbers and their accuracy?

                            Just odd to me when the Warriors are favorites by sports books and the public at large and GS has homecourt advantage
                            their models are really over the top with it but the advanced models just really like boston because they don't have a negative player in their rotation. Advanced stats have also really liked Boston since the calendar turn but that's overboard imo.
                            Last edited by BleacherBum2310; 06-01-2022, 12:55 PM.
                            Wolverines Packers Cubs Celtics

                            Comment

                            • The15thunter
                              MVP
                              • Mar 2003
                              • 1639

                              #29
                              Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

                              xbox gt - bmorerep87

                              Comment

                              • Gramps91
                                MVP
                                • Sep 2010
                                • 2116

                                #30
                                Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

                                I feel like 86.5% in favor of the Celtics is really high. I'm slightly for the Celtics but that's really lowballing the Warriors
                                NCAA: Kentucky Wildcats
                                MLB: Atlanta Braves
                                NBA: San Antonio Spurs

                                Comment

                                Working...