Lol man I hope I don't need to. I am probably the biggest Curry fan on these boards. I just root for him to finish "checking some of the boxes" that if unchecked, will give the haters a reason to keep him out of the Top 10 All Time when his career is over. Yes I have him Top 10 (10th actually) so I expect him to show up big time (defined as the unquestionable Finals MVP) in a Finals for once.
2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
Lol man I hope I don't need to. I am probably the biggest Curry fan on these boards. I just root for him to finish "checking some of the boxes" that if unchecked, will give the haters a reason to keep him out of the Top 10 All Time when his career is over. Yes I have him Top 10 (10th actually) so I expect him to show up big time (defined as the unquestionable Finals MVP) in a Finals for once.Unofficial OS Ambassador of "CPU vs. CPU"
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
I appreciate when a fan of the Warriors criticizes him it somewhat balances out the incessant fawning that he gets from non Warriors fans.Jordan Mychal Lemos
@crypticjordan
Do this today: Instead of $%*#!@& on a game you're not going to play or movie you're not going to watch, say something good about a piece of media you're excited about.
Do the same thing tomorrow. And the next. Now do it forever.Comment
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
ESPN has Boston at 86.5% chance of winning the title vs the Dubs 13.5%
FiveThirtyEight has it about the same...80:20 in favor of Boston
Anyone know much about these numbers and their accuracy?
Just odd to me when the Warriors are favorites by sports books and the public at large and GS has homecourt advantageComment
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
Warriors are a slight favorite, and the Celtics have been really good on the road since January and on the Playoffs. That's why I asked about the series ending in no more than 5. Warriors have the lowest odds for a favorite since the 2013-2014 Spurs and before that the 2005-2006 Mavs.OSHA Inspector for the NBA.Comment
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
ESPN has Boston at 86.5% chance of winning the title vs the Dubs 13.5%
FiveThirtyEight has it about the same...80:20 in favor of Boston
Anyone know much about these numbers and their accuracy?
Just odd to me when the Warriors are favorites by sports books and the public at large and GS has homecourt advantage
I believe FiveThirtyEight uses RAPTOR and/or player projections and ESPN is using BPI, both to basically run simulations on player production vs previous rounds. Think all of those factor in opponent strength so currently Golden State playing Dallas with a huge fall off after Luka, Memphis with no Ja, and Denver with piles of dog **** after Joker I would assume their evaluations are basically being penalized for having an “easy” road thus far.
I might be way off on that lolComment
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
ESPN has Boston at 86.5% chance of winning the title vs the Dubs 13.5%
FiveThirtyEight has it about the same...80:20 in favor of Boston
Anyone know much about these numbers and their accuracy?
Just odd to me when the Warriors are favorites by sports books and the public at large and GS has homecourt advantageComment
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
I trust bookies more lol. People can run a million simulations using whatever model they want based on limited past game sample sizes, and I still won't care. If the 85% probability ends up being correct it's somehow proof that it works, but if it doesn't it's just a model based on numbers and it can never actually be wrong.
How do you run a model on how all of these guys are going to be feeling mentally/emotionally/physically when they go out there on any given night.Comment
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2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
I trust bookies more lol. People can run a million simulations using whatever model they want based on limited past game sample sizes, and I still won't care. If the 85% probability ends up being correct it's somehow proof that it works, but if it doesn't it's just a model based on numbers and it can never actually be wrong.
How do you run a model on how all of these guys are going to be feeling mentally/emotionally/physically when they go out there on any given night.
While all this is true that’s why they are meant to be predictions and not to be taken as the gospel/fact.
If I understood correctly both models were “assuming” teams current rotations were at full strength. So any injury, or feeling mentally/emotionally that would throw them off their expected A game would go against the predictions as of todays date.
I think some of those type of stats can be useful over a certain period of time/used in the right context. But to guess a finals winner based on a relatively small sample size like this it’s most likely pretty worthless. But I think ultimately peoples issue with stuff like this is that they just take it for more than what it really is when they see it. Instead of “oh interesting”, we get “wow these damn nerds no way can this be right” when in reality it’s not meant to be taken THAT serious to begin with. Marginal guides more so than “this means this and it’s a fact”.
Somewhat like you’re example of how a player feels. Say Draymond gets the flu and they lose that game. Obviously that couldn’t be factored in to a prediction like this. But that doesn’t make the stat any less right/wrong than our opinions really either because none of us could have predicted that Draymond would get the flu either.. but because it’s a number, a stat we can see, we don’t really give it the same benefit of the doubt as we do when we look at things ourselves and say “well I didn’t expect that to happen”.. I think people treat them a bit too literally, and get caught up in it being a “number” and not “hoops” that it gets lost a bit how closely related a lot of these nerd stats/predictions are to actual stats/outcomes/eye tests/etc.
I will say FiveThirtyEight’s model did have Boston, Phoenix, Bucks, Dubs as the top 4 at the start of the playoffs. If you were to factor in Middleton eventually getting hurt and Phoenix’s somewhat unexpected collapse it seems like the prediction was pretty solid. Heat were next and they were in the conference finals too. By the April 26 model update (about a week after the Middleton injury) it had already shifted to Boston, Phoenix, Golden State. Boston were the “favorites” from the start and they’ve made it to the finals while having the best net rating and largest margin of victory and it did accurately predict that better than any of us lol.
There is an element of Golden State hasn’t really had to be fully “dialed in” to perfection to beat the teams they’ve played thus far. If you were to assume they can get to that against better teams and will (which I do and expect exactly that to happen) then that is obviously something that these predictions can’t predict, some team “flipping the switch” per se.Comment
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
Tried to tell ya Brother Cima, the Nerds are ruining everything we enjoy about this sport.
They wanna run this sport with their Calculators because they always got picked last as a kid.
But yeah, hoping Golden State can pull this one out. The way Tatum has been playing this entire postseason though is the main reason why I think Boston has more than a significant chance to pull this out.#RespectTheCultureComment
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
this series going 5 would incredibly surprise me this seems like a series going 6 or 7 barring health. i wouldn't let the previous series influence you too much. Matchups are different. Cs also will not be playing a drop in this one. dubs movement will be a test for sure but I also think people are down on the Cs offense and they can play even better there so i wouldn't be shocked if they leveled up there. I am going Cs in 7 well because but i won't be shocked one way or the other. These 2 are evenly matched.Wolverines Packers Cubs Celtics
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Re: 2022 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics
ESPN has Boston at 86.5% chance of winning the title vs the Dubs 13.5%
FiveThirtyEight has it about the same...80:20 in favor of Boston
Anyone know much about these numbers and their accuracy?
Just odd to me when the Warriors are favorites by sports books and the public at large and GS has homecourt advantageLast edited by BleacherBum2310; 06-01-2022, 12:55 PM.Wolverines Packers Cubs Celtics
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