Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

[DTX3]

I was looking over the UFC Heavyweight division and I gotta say, with TUF 10 focusing on the Heavyweights, that division is will be pretty interesting. But for now, you have the two "champs" Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir facing each other for all the gold this month and two heavyweights who some still consider top contenders(I don't) in Big Nog and Couture going at it in a few months.

Cheick Kongo was definitely in line for the first shot at the undisputed champ before getting manhandled by Cain Velasquez. Shane Carwin on the other hand, also defeated a top contender in Gabriel Gonzaga with a clean knockout. So most likely these two will battle it out for the title shot.

Do you guys see either of these two guys having a legitimate chance to defeat a Brock Lesnar or Frank Mir? As of RIGHT NOW, I don't like Velasquez chances, he just cannot finish a fight, still needs improvement. But who knows how much better he will be in a couple of months. I haven't seen much of Shane so I can't speak for him.

Aside from those two, who else could step up? Even with a win against McCully, I still think Junior would need another win against a big name to be considered a contender. Thoughts?

[Wet Bandit]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

I don't like Velasquez chances, he just cannot finish a fight...

The guy finished the opponents in his first five fights in an average time of just over three and a half minutes. Just because he didn't finish the opponent in his sixth fight (whose strategy mainly consisted of getting taken down and turtling), I don't think that means he can't finish a fight.

As for him and Carwin, I think they both are notable threats to Mir. I can see both of them getting Mir down and grinding him out.

I don't think their chances are as good against Brock, since a lot of their strength is in their wrestling, and it'd be hard to outwrestle Brock. Carwin's probably got a better shot than Velasquez, though, because he's shown more on his feet.

It'll be interesting to see what those two are able to do in the future, though. Especially Velasquez, since he's only 26.

[Wet Bandit]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

Oh, and I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Couture. If Mir beats Brock and Couture beats Big Nog, Couture might get a title shot against Mir and that's a guy I can certainly see him beating. Granted, he'd probably lose that title to Brock again, but still.

[DTX3]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

The guy finished the opponents in his first five fights in an average time of just over three and a half minutes. Just because he didn't finish the opponent in his sixth fight (whose strategy mainly consisted of getting taken down and turtling), I don't think that means he can't finish a fight.

As for him and Carwin, I think they both are notable threats to Mir. I can see both of them getting Mir down and grinding him out.

I don't think their chances are as good against Brock, since a lot of their strength is in their wrestling, and it'd be hard to outwrestle Brock. Carwin's probably got a better shot than Velasquez, though, because he's shown more on his feet.

It'll be interesting to see what those two are able to do in the future, though. Especially Velasquez, since he's only 26.

I should have worded it better. Cain would have trouble finishing a Brock or Mir type fighter, hell even a Nogueira type fighter. In my eyes, as long as Brock is the champion, Cain won't win the title.

Brock is just too big of a body for Cain to hang with. It would be a very interesting fight though. Cain's wrestling vs Brock's wrestling? that would be a very technical fight imo. I agree with Carwin though, his huge body would definitely help him against Brock.

Even if Randy DOES defeat Nog, I wouldn't take him seriously for a title run. But who knows?

Anyways, when it comes down to it, Cain Velasquez = the future.

[SHO]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

IMO, there isn't a clear cut #1 or #2 HW fighter in the UFC, so I could see any of those three (Carwin, Kongo, and Velasquez) making a serious title run and utlimately winning.

[DTX3]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

After the domination by Cain, you still think Kongo is a top contender? Kongo was "supposed" to run through Cain, only to take 251 punches to the head and be exposed on the ground. Cain set the blue print, take it to the ground.

[SHO]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

After the domination by Cain, you still think Kongo is a top contender? Kongo was "supposed" to run through Cain, only to take 251 punches to the head and be exposed on the ground. Cain set the blue print, take it to the ground.

Yes, Cup Chieck is still is a top contender in my eyes. The thing now is that he has to regain the momentum he built before getting worked by Cain. Everyone and their mother should have known that Kongo had zero ground game a loooong time ago.

[mgoblue]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

Yes, Cup Chieck is still is a top contender in my eyes. The thing now is that he has to regain the momentum he built before getting worked by Cain. Everyone and their mother should have known that Kongo had zero ground game a loooong time ago.

I guess I don't really see how someone with zero ground game would survive against Lesnar, Mir, or other top HW's...

[Rau71]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

I don't see how Cain or Carwin can grind out Mir. Mir is a wonder ground specialist who is learning out to strike. Cain showed against Congo that he leaves himself open in the stand up game. Mir will exploit that. Mir will also be able to defend a takedown if he wanted to, he might want it on the ground, where is BJJ would be supreme.

[SHO]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

I guess I don't really see how someone with zero ground game would survive against Lesnar, Mir, or other top HW's...

I still have faith in Kongo. You should, too.

[DTX3]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

I guess I don't really see how someone with zero ground game would survive against Lesnar, Mir, or other top HW's...

Exactly. Lesnar and Mir would kill Kongo.

[Wet Bandit]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

Cain showed against Congo that he leaves himself open in the stand up game. Mir will exploit that.

Outside of the Big Nog fight, when has Mir ever exploited anyone in the stand up game?

Mir's legend as a striker has been built solely based on that Nog fight, despite years of fights telling us otherwise. And Nog looked terrible in that fight. No head movement, no angles, no footwork, no elusiveness, no leg kicks, no takedown attempts. All Nog basically did was stand still and occasionally paw a jab.

All Mir had to do to outstrike him was to get off first against an aging 32 year old who had been in 10 years worth of wars who was never a great striker to begin with (Big Nog has only won twice by KO/TKO in 37 fights).

Mir will also be able to defend a takedown if he wanted to...

Maybe in the first round (although Lesnar took him down immediately). But in the second, third, fourth rounds? Mir's cardio has never been even average, and we know Velasquez's cardio is great and we've got every reason to suspect Carwin's is as well. Is Mir going to be able to defend takedowns from powerful wrestlers after the first round?

The biggest thing Mir has going for him is he's got legit jiu jitsu. His submissions are very dangerous, which is why he's got a good chance to beat both Carwin and Velasquez. But the idea that he's gonna exploit their striking or stop them from taking him down whenever they want, that's not Frank Mir.

[DueceDiggla]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

The biggest threat to Brock IMO is Nog. Mir to me is not a threat at all, and people are putting way too much stock into him because he beat up a sick Nog.

Cain needs more work and Kongo wouldn't stand a chance against Lesnar.



I think the guys are Nog and Carwin with Mir a distant third.

[Scoop_Brady]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

The guy who will beat Lesnar will have very good standup and very good takedown defense. Until there's a contender with great wrestling skills that is his size I don't see any other style winning. Maybe a BJJ guy like Mir who can throw a submission at him that he's never seen before.

What is Carwin's takedown defense like? He's definitely got the power to stop a guy like Brock but he'd have to keep it standing. Also, we still don't know much about Lesnar's striking ability but judging from Heath Herring rolling across the octagon I'd say he has some power so if his striking improves that makes him even more dangerous.

[baumy300]

Re: Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

When Brock gets a little more MMA experience/practice he will be unstoppable until he ages too much to perform at a high level or until some total phenom emerges.