UFC on ESPN 2: Barboza v Gaethje

[johnmangala]

[WarMMA]

Re: UFC on ESPN 2: Barboza v Gaethje

Hmm pretty quiet in here. Good night of fights though. Main event should be a war until someone gets slept.

[johnmangala]

Re: UFC on ESPN 2: Barboza v Gaethje

Hmm pretty quiet in here. Good night of fights though. Main event should be a war until someone gets slept.

Eh pretty boring card so far, except for that amazing triangle sub by Paul Craig- haven't seen effective guard pulls in a long time and that KO of MJ just now by Emmett- first time MJ has been KO'd outright like that.

The main event should make up for the rest of the card tho.

[johnmangala]

Hermansson won


David Branch (+135|$2.3x|4/10) > Jack Hermansson (-145|$1.6x|6/10)


SL/m: 1.67 < 4.92
S Acc: 40% < 56%
SSA/m: 1.89 < 1.77
SD: 56% < 63%
TD Avg: 2.58 > 2.12
TD Acc: 32% < 46%
TDD: 42% < 73%
SUB Avg: 0 < 0.6

Branch is the underdog, I am surprised at the line here. He has more experience and has faced higher competition. As a decent pressure fighter, Branch could outpoint to a decision.
Hermansson has more statistical advantages as shown above. He began as a wrestler and has vicious gnp, but become more well rounded as he went through Cage Warriors. Hermansson is a mixed martial artist and has submissions in his arsenal as well.

Prediction: Branch by Decision.

___


Result: Hermansson by SUB (Guillotine) at 0:49 of R1.

**

[WarMMA]

Re: UFC on ESPN 2: Barboza v Gaethje

Eh pretty boring card so far, except for that amazing triangle sub by Paul Craig- haven't seen effective guard pulls in a long time and that KO of MJ just now by Emmett- first time MJ has been KO'd outright like that.

The main event should make up for the rest of the card tho.

Yh think its gonna be a slugfest once Gaethje can get on the inside of Barboza's range. I don't think it will go 5, but it should be a war. On paper the skilled striker Barboza should absolutely pick apart Gaethje once he can keep him on the outside, but I feel like Gaethje is tough enough to survive the outside attacks and get on the inside where he can have some success and maybe tag Barboza with something hard enough to hurt him. He really needs to watch for Barboza's body kicks though and whatever he does, do not get hit with that spinning heel kick on the way in.

[johnmangala]

Gaethje won


Edson Barboza (-120|$1.8x|5/10) > Justin Gaethje (+110|$2.1x|5/10)


SL/m: 3.99 < 8.53
S Acc: 42% < 54%
SSA/m: 4.14 > 10.54
SD: 60% > 53%
TD Avg: 0.46 > 0
TD Acc: 46% > 0%
TDD: 80% = 80%
SUB Avg: 0.1 > 0

Barboza has the technical striking edge, ie. he has better timing and efficiency. However, Barboza tends to struggle against pressure and grappling. He will look to slow down the fight, and maintain space. Barboza gets hit way less than Gaethje, this is significant as Gaethje is the type to take 2 to give 1. Barboza is one that can exploit that.
Gaethje is a high output pressure fighter. Although he hasn't used his wrestling in the UFC yet, this is a fight where it would benefit him. Gaethje has had problems with strikers that are more technical but aren't afraid to brawl with him. Barboza isn't necessarily that, but his body assault can slow down the fight. Both are vicious leg kickers but Gaethje could impose his game more effectively by not giving Barboza the distance he needs.

Either way this fight likely continues the trend of all ESPN main events so far ending in a finish.

Prediction: Barboza by R3 TKO.

___


Result: Gaethje by KO (Right hook) at 2:30 of R1.

***

[johnmangala]

Re: UFC on ESPN 2: Barboza v Gaethje

Damn! What a right hand KO by Gaethje!

They even traded for a bit.

The finish streak continues.

[WarMMA]

Re: UFC on ESPN 2: Barboza v Gaethje

Yh nice finish for Gaethje. We knew it wasn't gonna go 5 and one of them was going to sleep. Gaethje fought the way he needed, getting after Barboza and on the inside, making it a scrap. Good win for him and didn't have to take to much damage in this one either. I knew Barboza doesn't fight well off the back foot, but kinda surprised he had no defense going on while circling away. Got starched for it smh. Wonder what's next for Gaethje though?