The Moneyball Redux

[Gronk4M13]

Game: MLB The Show 16 PS4
Roster: OSFM Opening Day (in roster vault)
Sliders: Armor and Sword
Schedule: 162 games (play one, sim five)

Springtime is here! As March Madness wraps up, the attention of many sports fans rapidly shifts to baseball. I have been inspired by the great work of many other baseball dynasty makers; Royals19, Jr., Bluejaysfan65, slowpokemcgee, lilbiggio and many others. I've decided to make my own contribution(s) to this awesome community by starting my own extensive MLB dynasty.

Why the Athletics? The stadium is fun (or annoying, depending on how you look at it,) to play in, I like the Moneyball philosophy and, frankly, they're not very good at the moment. I'm looking forward to the challenge of attempting to follow the Moneyball school of thought while rebuilding this team; that means working on a low budget, so no big free agent signings/trades in which we take on a lot of salary. At the height of their Moneyball days, the As were similar to the modern-day Royals; a team built to win through pitching and defense and an offense focused on getting on base/OBP. So, that is the approach I will take.

I hope that you follow along as I track my progress in this dynasty.

[Gronk4M13]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

June 16th, 2015

Billy Beane watched the rapid movement on his television screen; players quickly running back and forth, passing the ball and trying to score. Wash, rinse and repeat, over and over again. Billy was only watching the game because his son, Brayden, had become a rabid fan and demanded that they watch this game.

"And that will do it....One of the most dominant regular seasons in history will lead to a title."

Beane watched as Steve Kerr, Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors celebrated their clinching victory in game six of the NBA Finals.

Beane loathed the Warriors. As they rose to prominence, his Oakland As had barely stayed relevant in the playoff conversation. Now, as the Athletics were embroiled in a miserable season, the Warriors had reached the pinnacle of success. Nobody cared about the As in Oakland anymore; everyone hopped on the bandwagon and became Warriors fans. The Athletics' attendance numbers continued to drop, as did the club's winning percentage.

Beane spent the rest of the 2015 baseball season selling off some valuable pieces as he realized it was time to rebuild. Beane shipped off Ben Zobrist to the Kansas City Royals and sent Scott Kazmir to the Houston Astros, among other trades. Beane continued his tradition of stockpiling prospects because he realized that his club would not be winning anything significant any time soon.


...

November 1st, 2015

Billy Beane sat at his desk. As usual, he was the last one in the office. Beane soaked in the silence as he looked out his window. Billy looked up at the stars; the sky was clear, which made each star glow bright. Across the room, the Royals stormed the field in Queens, New York as they celebrated their World Series win. Beane cursed and turned the television off.

Watching the Warriors win the NBA championship infuriated Beane, but he could not do anything truly meaningful in response. Now, watching the Royals win the World Series using a philosophy that was very similar to his beloved "Moneyball" made him spring into action. Beane picked up his phone.

He was ready to get to work....

[Gosens6]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

The official osfm rosters aren't yet available. I'm sure the ones in the vault are a fake

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

[Gronk4M13]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

The official osfm rosters aren't yet available. I'm sure the ones in the vault are a fake

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

I know the real OSFM rosters aren't out, it's just the name of the file.

[BlueJays09]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

Looking forward to this. Following!


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[Gronk4M13]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

Looking forward to this. Following!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thank you very much!

[Gronk4M13]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

Offseason recap update coming later in the week.

[Gronk4M13]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

Offseason Recap/Season Preview

November 19, 2015

Beane stared at his computer screen as he contemplated how he could improve the Athletics next season. The headline scrolled across ESPN...

"Josh Donaldson of the Toronto Blue Jays wins American League Most Valuable Player."

Beane angrily closed his computer screen. Donaldson played for Beane's Athletics ' both at the minor and major league levels, for four years, from 2010-2014. Donaldson had grown into an All-Star by 2014. Yet, instead of building around him, Beane shipped him to Toronto for for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Franklin Barreto. Donaldson immediately went on to win the AL MVP award in his first year in Toronto as he led the playoff starved franchise back to the postseason. Meanwhile, Oakland suffered through a miserable 2015 campaign. It seemed that nothing could go right for the Athletics these days.

Beane realized that next year's draft has significant ramifications for the future of the franchise; in the last seven drafts, Beane had selected just three players that are projected to have career WARS of ten or above. As a small market club, the Athletics never have the luxury of signing free agents to big contracts. Therefore, Oakland usually misses out on the star players available. On the flip side, the Athletics are usually unable to resign players that develop into stars that are out of the Athletics' price range. For this reason, successful drafts are crucial to Oakland's prominence. Having a seven year stretch of mostly unproductive drafts directly correlates to the A's struggles.



Billy Beane looked at the statistics in front of him. The Athletics were dismal in games that were decided by one run (19-35; 52% success rate on saves) and they had the worst bullpen in the American League (4.64 bullpen ERA). To win games this upcoming season, Beane needed to completely restructure the team's bullpen.

Beane signed Rich Hill to a one year, six million dollar contract after the veteran emerged from the independent leagues to post electric statistics for Boston. Hill went 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA IN 4 starts for the the Red Sox. Hill has spent parts of eleven seasons in the majors. The Athletics will count on the thirty-six year old Hill to continue his most recent level of play to improve their pitching staff.

Hill is far from the only reinforcement that Beane added to the pitching staff. Beane took a flier on right hander Henderson Alvarez, who was non tendered by the Marlins. Just twenty five years old, Alvarez has much more upside than Hill. However, like Hill, he comes to Oakland with significant concerns regarding his durability. Alvarez missed most of the 2015 season with shoulder injuries, which led to season ending surgery in July. In 2015, Alvarez only pitched 22.3 innings with a mediocre 6.45 ERA. Alvarez last pitched in the MLB on May 22, 2015. However, Alvarez was fantastic in 2014; 187 innings with a 2.65 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9. Thus far in his career, Alvarez is the owner of a total 55% ground ball rate. When he returns, Alvarez has all the tools necessary to return to, if not improve upon, his 2014 form.

Beane also added several new faces to the bullpen itself. Ryan Madson, 35, inked a three year deal with Oakland for $22 million. The logistics of the move are questionable, but Madson has enjoyed success as part of the Royals bullpen that played a large part in Kansas City's World Series victory. Madson went saves three games with a 2.13 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 68 games last season.

Beane also signed reliever John Axford to a two year deal for $10 million. Axford has 141 career saves and has four plus seasons with at least twenty saves. Axford adds some needed durability to the bullpen; he has never been placed on the DL and he has pitched at least fifty innings for five consecutive seasons. Axford limits walks and is a strikeout pitcher; (10.6 K/9 career) and walks (4.5 BB/9.) Axford has a track record of being inconsistent and frequently loses the closers' position. However, wherever he pitches, Axford eats innings and is a smart addition to the bullpen.

Beane also traded Jesse Chavez to Toronto for Liam Hendriks. Hendriks, 27, is five years younger than Chavez and is coming off of his best season; 2.92 ERA with a 71 strikeouts and 11 walks in 64 2/3 innings.

Beane also swapped Drew Pomeranz for Marc Rzepczynski in a trade with the Padres. Marc is coming off a rough season (5.66 ERA) but his peripherals largely explain the poor numbers; 381 BABIP-against and 25% HR/FB rate. He put up a 10.5 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 stat line while inducing ground balls 67.3 % of the time. Rzepczynski should be a solid contributor in the remade Athletics bullpen.

[Gronk4M13]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

Next, Beane looked at the offense.

In the Pomeranz trade, Beane picked up first baseman Yonder Alonso. Alonso, despite failing to meet expectations and lacking power, is excellent at getting on base. His stat line from last year reads 282/.361/.381 slash in 402 plate appearances.

Beane also brought back Jed Lowrie from the rival Astros; after two years in Oakland, Lowrie signed with Houston as a free agent and struggled in the 2015 season. Lowrie, soon to be 32, put up a stat line of 222/.312/.400 (95 OPS+) with 14 doubles and nine homers last season in 263 plate appearances.

Left field was a black hole for the Athletics due to the mediocre play of Craig Gentry, Sam Fuld and others. Beane knew that he would have to find an upgrade in left field to improve the offense. The most significant addition to the offense is arguably outfielder Khris Davis. Davis, 28, adds power to the lineup; he hit 27 home runs in 2015, which was the tenth most in the NL. Davis' average leaves room for improvement (.247) but he drove in 66 runs and stayed relatively healthy as he played in 121 games. Plus, Davis is under team control thorough 2019.

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The success of the bullpen will determine the type of season that the Athletics endure in 2016. If the bullpen plays well, the As could make a run for a wild card spot, or at least a decent win-loss record. However, if the bullpen does not substantially improve from last year's performance, the Athletics are in for another miserable, 90+ loss season. The performance of closer Sean Doolittle, who missed most of last season with a rotator cuff tear, is of paramount importance as well. Doolittle's absence significantly weakened the depth of the bullpen.



The starting rotation is...intriguing. Sonny Gray is one of the best young pitchers in baseball; he was a 2015 Cy Young candidate as he posted a 5.8 WAR which ranked seventh among pitchers. Beyond Gray, the Athletics will count on Hill and Jesse Hahn. Hahn has flashed promise in an injury riddle career. In an attempt to stay healthy, Hahn has eliminated the slider from his arsenal. However, due to his injuries, it is fair to wonder if Hahn will ever recapture his previous form. Gray, Hill, Chris Bassitt and Kendall Graveman are expected to make up the rotation to start the year.

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Opinions about the Athletics are quite divergent leading up to the 2016 season. FanGraphs and other websites predict that the Athletics will win between 62 and 68 games. If these predictions are accurate, the misery that has been brewing for Athletics fans since the 2014 1-0 loss to the Royals in the Wild Card game will be substantially augmented. There are reasons for optimism when you look at the roster, but consecutive 90+ loss seasons could turn the Athletics into the Phillies of the American League.



That being said, some analysts see the As winning between 80-85 games, which could be enough for a wild card berth. If the bullpen plays well, the rotation won't have to carry as big of a load, which bodes well for Oakland. The only weak spot in the lineup seems to be DH Billy Butler, who can't get worse than he did last year. The combination of a balanced lineup 1-9 and a better bullpen, with some promising breakout candidates in the rotation behind ace Sonny Gray, could propel Oakland to a respectable season.

It will be difficult, if not impossible, for Oakland to bypass the contending Rangers and Astros atop the division. That being said, Oakland has the potential to regain relevance in an American League that seems wide-open in the wild card race. With Sonny Gray primed to take the next step to superstardom, bounceback candidates in Henderson Alvarez and Jesse Hahn, Oakland's mid-lineup projected to provide ample power (65 homers last year between Stephen Vogt, Josh Reddick and Khris Davis,) there is enough talent on this team to challenge for a spot in the postseason.

Projected lineup

1. Billy Burns, CF
2. Jed Lowrie, 2B
3. Josh Reddick, RF
4. Khris Davis, LF
5. Stephen Vogt, C
6. Danny Valencia, 3B
7. Billy Butler, DH
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B
9. Marcus Semien, SS



As mentioned, Davis adds some needed power; he has averaged 30 home runs per seasons thus far in his career. The lineup needs to do a better job getting on base (12th in OPS in the AL last season) which is why Beane traded for on-base machine Alonso. The lineup is evenly balanced 1-9; only Billy Butler projects to be a "black hole" for the offense as he could continue to decline. Oakland might look to add a low-cost power threat to see some time at DH.

Bench

The bench should serve its purpose by adding some useful depth; Coco Crisp, Mark Canha, and newcomer Chris Coghlan provide even more balance to the offense.

Projected rotation

1. Sonny Gray
2. Jesse Hahn
3. Rich Hill
4. Chris Bassitt
5. Kendall Graveman



Gray is a strong candidate on the watch list for the Cy Young this season. He is unquestionably the leader of the staff. Beane paid Hill six million for four electric starts and the As are hoping that the veteran can continue that level of play. Luckily, Oakland is only on the hook for one year with Hill's contract. If Hill can at least stay healthy, he should be able to eat some innings. Beyond Gray, the rest of the rotation is projected to be...average this season. Durability is the largest question with the 2-5 spots; Hill, Henderson Alvarez and Jesse Hahn are all injury risks. Felix Doubront adds some depth to the staff, but if he is used more than expected, the rotation could be in trouble.



Bullpen



The bullpen is crucial to Oakland's season. If they succeed, the As are primed to win approximately eighty games. If the bullpen struggles, the As are slotted to lose at least ninety games again. Closer Sean Doolittle returns after pitching just 13.6 innings last year. Assuming he can return to his previous form, Doolittle adds a potentially lights out arm to the pen. Beane overpaid for Madson, but the former a Royal should be able to play his part in improving the bullpen. Newcomer Liam Hendriks is coming off of his best season and he can handle high-pressure situations. Oakland's bullpen currently projects to be in the upper third of the AL in projected innings value combined with run prevention and underlying skills. The bullpen will be especially important because beyond Gray, none of the starters are expected to work deep into games. (Plus, as mentioned, most of the rotation comes with significant injury risks.)



Prognosis

SportsLine sees the Athletics winning 83 games and finishing second in the division. FanGraphs has Oakland losing 90 games. As you can see, no one really knows to expect from this team.

Despite being considered the worst team in the AL, the Athletics can still contend. In the 2016 AL, it seems that every team has an attainable path to the postseason. Approximately eighty wins could be enough for the second wild card spot. Given that estimate, the As can be described as "not good...but not irrelevant."



Looking at the worst case scenario, if the offense struggles and fails to score consistently, the lackluster pitching staff will be asked to do too much, leading to other miserable season.

[Gronk4M13]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

Key Facts

Presented By...

94: the Athletics lost 94 games in 2015, their most since 1997
19-35: the 2015 As' record in one run games
15th: As' 2015 rank in American League Bullpen ERA
12th: As' 2015 rank in American League OPS
65: home runs hit by the As' projected middle of the order (Vogt, Davis and Reddick) in 2015

[Gronk4M13]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

I'll continue posting season preview write-ups but I think that I will wait for a better roster before officially starting this. (Not necessarily OSFM.)

[Gronk4M13]

Re: The Moneyball Redux

OSFM rosters drop tonight so this dynasty will get rolling this week.