Royals Mailbag (6/3)
ROYALS MAILBAG
Trade talks heat up; hitting struggles on the hitting coach?
By artoodeetoo
06/03/2024
It's the first off day of the month, which means that the second version of the 2024 mailbag is here! This edition is going to cover topics such as putting Maikel Garcia in a different slot in the order, where the Royals could go in the trade market if they had one trade to make, and is hitting coach Alec Zumwalt's job safe? These topics and more are covered in this month's Royals Mailbag.
If you could only have one trade to improve the team at the deadline, would you use it to improve the lineup or the staff?
The Royals need more firepower in the lineup. I was going to post an article this week regarding the potential trade targets to bolster the lineup, but I'm going to hold off for another several weeks to see how 1) the rest of the league starts to shake out, and 2) to see if any of the current players get hot and maybe give J.J. Picollo enough hope that the lineup can hold up, and he can go get a bullpen arm or two to strengthen that side.
Getting bullpen help is much cheaper prospect-wise than acquiring a bat; and despite what Picollo says about other teams 'wanting guys' that they have, they have the second-worst farm system in the league, and very little top-end talent to go get a guy like Brandon Drury, or pry away a multi-year acquisition like Abraham Toro from Oakland or Lamonte Wade Jr from San Francisco.
Aside from Will Smith, left-handed relievers are really, really struggling with both the Royals and in the upper minors. Josh Taylor is a question mark; and Jake Brentz can throw 100-plus, but can't find the strike zone still. Sam Long is really the only one that's had any success besides Smith, and they just signed veteran T.J. McFarland to a minor-league deal yesterday. Others like Walter Pennington just haven't shown enough yet that they're good enough for an opportunity. Perhaps Kris Bubic fills a long-relief or 'follower' type of role when he comes off his rehab stint?
On the right side, Matt Sauer has been very good after a slow start, but is he ready for the pressure of a post-season push? Three guys that were supposed to have fairly big roles in the bullpen (Carlos Hernandez, Jordan Lyles, Nick Anderson) are all on the IL and/or haven't been effective this season. It's unclear when Lyles will be back from his personal leave.
Is a change of hitting coach needed?
I'm a big, big fan of what Alec Zumwalt has done since coming into the organization in 2019, basically overhauling the Royals' minor league hitting program, and turning around the careers of players like MJ Melendez (more on him later), Bobby Witt Jr, and Nick Pratto before making him the full-time coach in 2022; albeit under the previous manager. That said, he's pulling double duty in serving in that position PLUS as the team's major league hitting coach. I wonder if he and the Royals are better served by relinquishing one of those positions.
It's unlikely we'll find out until the season's over, unless the offensive completely tanks and the Royals end up falling off a cliff, much like 2021. Which I suppose isn't out of the question.
To me, he's more valuable as the minor league hitting coordinator, much like how Drew Saylor oversees all of the pitching in the minors. But he's not the pitching coach at the big league level, Brian Sweeney is. And Sweeney is doing a pretty wonderful job, as he has the Royals' staff as a top ten unit in the league despite some individual relievers pitching down from their usual abilities.
Should Maikel Garcia be moved down in the order?
I know it's tempting to move a guy that's hitting like him in the leadoff role down to get him more RBI opportunities, but he's thriving in his current role. Moving him off that spot, especially when they don't have anyone else that would fit the role any better, is a mistake in my opinion.
However, there is one player that I would watch for in this regard down the road -- MJ Melendez. The power numbers don't look like it, but his ISO mark is .180, which is the best of his career, and has an OPS+ of 106, and a wRC+ of 109. His strikeout rate is a much more palatable 22% over his career of 27%, and is walking about 11.5% of the time (up from 10% in 2023). Those are leadoff hitter-type numbers, and I would not be opposed to giving him some spot starts in the leadoff spot, especially against lefties and let Garcia drop down to the two or three spot.
Melendez is likely to never be the kind of bat that hits 25-plus homeruns and hits in the middle third as originally hoped, but his on-base skills and contact rates are leaps and bounds better than the last few years, and that is an encouraging sign. Need to see more, though, so I hope that idea doesn't come to fruition -- yet. Frankly, if I were Matt Quatraro and Alec Zumwalt, I would sit him down and tell him that being a top-of-the-order hitter who is a high OBP guy is where he's going to make his money in the league, and not as a clean-up hitter.
Who are your picks for Royals All-Stars at this point?
If he's not voted in, Salvy should get in easily on the player's ballot, as he's one of the most well-liked and respected players in the league. Bobby Witt has likely played himself out of any chance of being voted in, so he's going to have to hope for a red-hot June to put him back in the conversation. If Maikel Garcia continues to hit like he is, he has a good shot at making it as a reserve.
It's a bit murkier after that. I'd like to think Cole Ragans could make it, but the starting pitching in the American League is just stacked. Same goes for Michael Wacha. Chris Stratton and John Schreiber are both having fantastic seasons. Non-closers to be utterly dominant to get in though; and if you're that good, why are you not closing games for your team anyway?
Final answer -- Salvy gets voted in, while Garcia and Stratton make the team as reserves, with Stratton over Schreiber due to saves. If Bobby Witt has a big month, he'll likely overtake Garcia as he has much better counting numbers aside from BA.
What should the Royals do with their first pick in July?
This is still a long ways away, but I'll take a stab at it. They should take BPA, but they really could also use an infusion of pitching. Unfortunately, at the top of this class there are not many top-end college arms to choose from, although the class has good depth in that regard. Hagen Smith of Arkansas is likely going to be the top college pitcher available, but with the lack of depth at the top, he'll likely be gone by the time the sixth pick rolls around. Same for Wake Forest's Chase Burns, a fire-balling but inconsistent righty.
If they can persuade Florida's Jac Caglianone to devote himself full-time to pitching, he's an option there especially since he's a southpaw. After leading all of college baseball in homeruns with a whopping thirty-three in 2023, it's going to be difficult, however, to convince him that pitching is his best ticket to the majors. His pure 70-grade power tool is going to be tough to pass up if he falls that far; and there is always the pitching to fall back on if hitting somehow doesn't work out.
Others that have been linked to the Royals have been Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery and Georgia outfielder Charlie Condon (both powerhouse hitting prospects), and prep shortstop Bryce Rainer, who has already drawn comparisons to Rangers shortstop Corey Seager.
ROYALS MAILBAG
Trade talks heat up; hitting struggles on the hitting coach?
By artoodeetoo
06/03/2024
It's the first off day of the month, which means that the second version of the 2024 mailbag is here! This edition is going to cover topics such as putting Maikel Garcia in a different slot in the order, where the Royals could go in the trade market if they had one trade to make, and is hitting coach Alec Zumwalt's job safe? These topics and more are covered in this month's Royals Mailbag.
If you could only have one trade to improve the team at the deadline, would you use it to improve the lineup or the staff?
The Royals need more firepower in the lineup. I was going to post an article this week regarding the potential trade targets to bolster the lineup, but I'm going to hold off for another several weeks to see how 1) the rest of the league starts to shake out, and 2) to see if any of the current players get hot and maybe give J.J. Picollo enough hope that the lineup can hold up, and he can go get a bullpen arm or two to strengthen that side.
Getting bullpen help is much cheaper prospect-wise than acquiring a bat; and despite what Picollo says about other teams 'wanting guys' that they have, they have the second-worst farm system in the league, and very little top-end talent to go get a guy like Brandon Drury, or pry away a multi-year acquisition like Abraham Toro from Oakland or Lamonte Wade Jr from San Francisco.
Aside from Will Smith, left-handed relievers are really, really struggling with both the Royals and in the upper minors. Josh Taylor is a question mark; and Jake Brentz can throw 100-plus, but can't find the strike zone still. Sam Long is really the only one that's had any success besides Smith, and they just signed veteran T.J. McFarland to a minor-league deal yesterday. Others like Walter Pennington just haven't shown enough yet that they're good enough for an opportunity. Perhaps Kris Bubic fills a long-relief or 'follower' type of role when he comes off his rehab stint?
On the right side, Matt Sauer has been very good after a slow start, but is he ready for the pressure of a post-season push? Three guys that were supposed to have fairly big roles in the bullpen (Carlos Hernandez, Jordan Lyles, Nick Anderson) are all on the IL and/or haven't been effective this season. It's unclear when Lyles will be back from his personal leave.
Is a change of hitting coach needed?
I'm a big, big fan of what Alec Zumwalt has done since coming into the organization in 2019, basically overhauling the Royals' minor league hitting program, and turning around the careers of players like MJ Melendez (more on him later), Bobby Witt Jr, and Nick Pratto before making him the full-time coach in 2022; albeit under the previous manager. That said, he's pulling double duty in serving in that position PLUS as the team's major league hitting coach. I wonder if he and the Royals are better served by relinquishing one of those positions.
It's unlikely we'll find out until the season's over, unless the offensive completely tanks and the Royals end up falling off a cliff, much like 2021. Which I suppose isn't out of the question.
To me, he's more valuable as the minor league hitting coordinator, much like how Drew Saylor oversees all of the pitching in the minors. But he's not the pitching coach at the big league level, Brian Sweeney is. And Sweeney is doing a pretty wonderful job, as he has the Royals' staff as a top ten unit in the league despite some individual relievers pitching down from their usual abilities.
Should Maikel Garcia be moved down in the order?
I know it's tempting to move a guy that's hitting like him in the leadoff role down to get him more RBI opportunities, but he's thriving in his current role. Moving him off that spot, especially when they don't have anyone else that would fit the role any better, is a mistake in my opinion.
However, there is one player that I would watch for in this regard down the road -- MJ Melendez. The power numbers don't look like it, but his ISO mark is .180, which is the best of his career, and has an OPS+ of 106, and a wRC+ of 109. His strikeout rate is a much more palatable 22% over his career of 27%, and is walking about 11.5% of the time (up from 10% in 2023). Those are leadoff hitter-type numbers, and I would not be opposed to giving him some spot starts in the leadoff spot, especially against lefties and let Garcia drop down to the two or three spot.
Melendez is likely to never be the kind of bat that hits 25-plus homeruns and hits in the middle third as originally hoped, but his on-base skills and contact rates are leaps and bounds better than the last few years, and that is an encouraging sign. Need to see more, though, so I hope that idea doesn't come to fruition -- yet. Frankly, if I were Matt Quatraro and Alec Zumwalt, I would sit him down and tell him that being a top-of-the-order hitter who is a high OBP guy is where he's going to make his money in the league, and not as a clean-up hitter.
Who are your picks for Royals All-Stars at this point?
If he's not voted in, Salvy should get in easily on the player's ballot, as he's one of the most well-liked and respected players in the league. Bobby Witt has likely played himself out of any chance of being voted in, so he's going to have to hope for a red-hot June to put him back in the conversation. If Maikel Garcia continues to hit like he is, he has a good shot at making it as a reserve.
It's a bit murkier after that. I'd like to think Cole Ragans could make it, but the starting pitching in the American League is just stacked. Same goes for Michael Wacha. Chris Stratton and John Schreiber are both having fantastic seasons. Non-closers to be utterly dominant to get in though; and if you're that good, why are you not closing games for your team anyway?
Final answer -- Salvy gets voted in, while Garcia and Stratton make the team as reserves, with Stratton over Schreiber due to saves. If Bobby Witt has a big month, he'll likely overtake Garcia as he has much better counting numbers aside from BA.
What should the Royals do with their first pick in July?
This is still a long ways away, but I'll take a stab at it. They should take BPA, but they really could also use an infusion of pitching. Unfortunately, at the top of this class there are not many top-end college arms to choose from, although the class has good depth in that regard. Hagen Smith of Arkansas is likely going to be the top college pitcher available, but with the lack of depth at the top, he'll likely be gone by the time the sixth pick rolls around. Same for Wake Forest's Chase Burns, a fire-balling but inconsistent righty.
If they can persuade Florida's Jac Caglianone to devote himself full-time to pitching, he's an option there especially since he's a southpaw. After leading all of college baseball in homeruns with a whopping thirty-three in 2023, it's going to be difficult, however, to convince him that pitching is his best ticket to the majors. His pure 70-grade power tool is going to be tough to pass up if he falls that far; and there is always the pitching to fall back on if hitting somehow doesn't work out.
Others that have been linked to the Royals have been Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery and Georgia outfielder Charlie Condon (both powerhouse hitting prospects), and prep shortstop Bryce Rainer, who has already drawn comparisons to Rangers shortstop Corey Seager.
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