Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

Big loss with Moore out, but the new guy Caulder has really stepped it up.

Bet Reece could do some serious damage from the TE spot.

Always love reading your scouting reports on college players.

Yep. Looks like we have a power run game. Getting the fumbles under control. He had one, but in 32 carries and considering we're still working on it, that's acceptable. It was interesting that Caulder actually did sub out (I didn't run the ball when he was out) on a couple plays. Probably his style of running. Might also show that fatigue will matter more once the fictional players show up in numbers later in the franchise...

The loss to Moore is definitely concerning. I think week 8 is a bye for the Raiders, so Moore might miss just 2 games. That will help. I hope Reece steps in at TE, I have a feeling I'll need him...

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

Team Depth Charts

Offense





Defense





Special Teams

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

Team Talent Reports

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

Player Value Pie Graph

[madball]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

They are some interesting charts you have there

[JaymeeAwesome]

I'm a stats/numbers guy and I love the effort put into those charts, but I don't know if we get anything valuable from the info. You might have to look for more saber metrics type grading to get some real value from numbers.

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

I'm a stats/numbers guy and I love the effort put into those charts, but I don't know if we get anything valuable from the info. You might have to look for more saber metrics type grading to get some real value from numbers.

I have and seen some nice ones, but I can't find formulas. Heck, half the time it's behind a pay wall.

The other ones, I can't really tell what the "units" are. Like the Pass Rushing Productivity or Elusive Rating.

Others need assignment of plays like a NFL scorer would - which I don't know how to do and the formula doesn't seem to be anywhere (like WPA, which would be great because the "unit" is the percentage probability of winning the game after the play).

Trying to find a "WAR" (Wins Above Replacement) type stat like there is in baseball, along with a formula.

Seems like football stats are slow in evolving unlike baseball where you almost can trip over a stat that's calculated from just the basic numbers.

Then again, Madden doesn't track league totals so even something as simple as a "plus" stat (like QBR+, etc) can't be done. *sigh*.

Oh well.

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

Found I might could do in Tackle Factor.

But I'd calculate the % for all 32 teams. Unless I could "fudge it" by taking all the tackles at each position and finding the percentage and assume that's "league average", but then with the screwed up sim engine making too many plays (and, presumably, too many tackles).

Or, if there's too much scoring - then there's not ENOUGH tackles (not enough plays are stopped).

*sigh*

[JaymeeAwesome]

I wonder if there is a way to run fantasy like stats? Like the yahoo start or sit tool.

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

Found one site that has a scoring system (even for individual defensive players) using stats in Madden. Probably could come up with a "Fantasy points allowed" for the defense as a whole using the team stats allowed.

I can't find the start or sit tool

Scoring system for defense (since Madden doesn't record assists):

Tackles: 1 point
Sacks: 4 points
Pass Defensed: 1 point
Interceptions: 5 points
Interception TD: 6 points (so a pick six is 11 points)
Forced Fumbles: 3 points
Fumble Recoveries: 2 points
Fumble TD: 6 points (so a scoop and score is 8 points)
Safety: 2 points

Offense:
Passing Yards: 0.05 per yard (20 for 1 point)
Passing TDs: 4 points
Rushing Yards: 0.1 per yard (10 for 1 point)
Rushing TDs: 6 points
Receiving Yards: 0.1 per yard (10 for 1 point)
Receiving TDs: 6 points.

Or perhaps Team defense is better:
Sacks: 1 point
Fumble Recovery: 1 point
Intecerptions: 1 point
Defensive TD: 6 points
Safety: 2 points
Kick TD: 6 points


Thoughts?

[JHeyBraves]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

I like the charts. They give us an idea of how much each position (and player) on the team is contributing to the overall success in a visually pleasing format.

Sure, I don't understand every aspect of the charts, but I get the gist of what they're saying.

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

That what I was going for I like how my "method" syncs with how they actually performed (means I can trust my eyes still and have reasonable judgment on how good or bad someone is doing as the game is going on). So I'm doing something right, though maybe not expressing it in a format that's meaningful to the outside audience.

Of course, using ratings and how they play "in general" recently probably not the best way, but short of becoming an NFL scorer and scoring/categorizing plays like that (and then having access to those stats), it's what I could think of at the time. One thing I notice is that, at least in football, those with advanced stats aren't sharing data or formulas In baseball, you can google up how to calculate Wins Above Replacement or Weighted On Base Average, or BABIP Allowed, etc. I guess football stats aren't that progressed yet to where it's "common knowledge" among stat lovers.

The fantasy points idea is good, too. I could (and would) use that as the basis for the charts. Fantasy points take actual production as well, so it still falls into "how the guy played" aspect. Helps that it uses Madden-tracked stats too

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

Rivals Fight to Bitter End
Cooper Gets Enough of 4th Down Pass
to Save Raiders Victory, Win 23-20

Whew. That's the emotion of a lot of the players in the Raiders' locker room after this thrilling, hard-fought victory over their AFC West rivals. Osweiler again had the Raiders' secondary at his whims for much of the game, racking up another 300 yards and throwing for 2 TDs, one of them late in the 4th to keep it a game.

What also helped was the Broncos' defense late. Mike Mitchell came flying down on kick coverage after Caulder ran in his 2nd TD of the day and forced a fumble with a vicious hit. Burris, who usually doesn't see much action, but got the start in the base nickle package the Raiders use, recovered the fumble to add to his good day.

However, the Raiders had to settle for three after a holding call, just the second penalty on the Raiders on the day, negated a 7-yd Terrelle Pryor scramble for a touchdown. Those four points almost meant the game.

That was because Osweiler would hit Demaryius Thomas for a TD as the WR had the rookie Carillon's number today, racking up over 100 yards as well. This was after an amazing catch over the top of Carillon that put the Broncos in the red zone. That made the game 23-20 instead of 27-20.

Fast forward to the final possession of the game. Osweiller was facing a fourth and long and the Raiders came with pressure, not wanting to risk sitting back in zone and giving the young QB all day to work. The throw was hurried but still catchable. Cooper, who had been relatively unattacked all game, found himself in man coverage and was trailing the play. He jumped and tipped the pass just enough to disrupt Eric Decker's attempt to make what would have been a game-winning play. Had the ball found Decker's hands, he would have been gone, taking the Raiders' hopes with him.

"I was hoping I could pick it off, but I got enough fingers on it to make it a tough catch for the receiver and fortunately, it fell incomplete, " Cooper spoke after the game, "The coaches put faith in me, and it wasn't pretty, but I was able to do what was asked of me."

For the second week in a row, the run defense stepped up and keep the opposing halfback quiet. McGahee got a few successful runs, but was mostly bottled up. McClain looked good in his familiar MLB spot and it looks like Olsen handles the outside well - giving the Raiders an alignment they can go with. Burris showed the coaching staff something, and should get more chances after today's performance.

Offensively, Pryor again struggled without Moore on the field, but did a good job trying to spread the ball around and keep everyone involved. Ford and Williams each made 6 catches. Reece contributed some receptions over the middle, and Caulder had 5 grabs, mostly on screens and safety valve passes that didn't net much. Still, the deeper attack just isn't there without Moore's ability to make plays on the ball. Ford had one chance behind the coverage, but the throw was hurried and close to the sideline - and he couldn't get the feet down.

Caulder, though, had a very strong day, perhaps the best of his career. He picked up 2 TDs and the only fumble he had was on a facemask, so it would have been overturned anyway on acceptance of the penalty. He picked up 125 yards on 25 carries and helped the offense stay in rhythm with his powerful runs, both inside and outside.

The win completes the sweep of the Broncos, despite Osweiler's efforts. In the combined games, the young QB racked up 619 yards on 52 of 77 passing (67.5% completion percentage) with 3 TDs and 1 INT.

"We just came up short again, " Osweiler spoke, "It was a hard fight, the Raiders played hard, they made one more play than we did and that's enough in the National Football League."

The win puts the Raiders at 5-2 heading into their bye week. The bye will be a welcome respite as the team suffered another injury, this time to a backup player, marking the 6th injury suffered in 7 games. Marcus Harper will return to action for week 9 with Fields and Moore expected to be just a week away.

"They might be healthy in time to make that second half push. Team is looking good now, but they can't let up. You can lose three in a row in a hurry in the NFL, " one analyst spoke.


Box Score:

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Jan 1,	1ST	2ND	3RD	4TH	SCORE
Oakland Raiders (4-2)	0	7	6	10	23
Denver Broncos (1-5)	3	3	0	14	20

Team Stats Comparison
	OAK	DEN
Total Offense	274	322
Rushing Yards	127	37
Passing Yards	147	285
First Downs	21	15
Punt Return Yards	0	12
Kick Return Yards	38	42
Total Yards	312	376
Turnovers	0	1
3rd Down Converstion	4-12 (33%)	5-15 (33%)
4th Down Conversion	0-0	2-3
2-Point Conversion	0-0	0-0
Red Zone Touchdowns/Field Goals	2/2 (80%)	2/0 (66%)
Penalties	2-20	7-80
Posession Time	25:08	34:52

Oakland Raiders PASSING C/A YDS TD INT Terrelle Pryor 20/39 (51%) 159 0 0 RUSHING ATT YDS AVG TD Julio Caulder 25 125 5.0 2 RECEIVING REC YDS AVG TD Jacoby Ford 6 66 11.0 0 Mike Williams 6 56 9.3 0 Julio Caudler 5 12 2.4 0 DEFENSE TACK SACK INT TD Rolando McClain 7 0 0 0 Miles Burris (1 FR) 7 0 0 0 Michael Huff 7 0 0 0 Matt Shaughnessy 6 0 0 0 Tevin Ash 3 2 0 0 KICKING FG XP PTS LONG Sebastian Janikowski 3/4 41 PUNTING NO YDS AVG IN20 Shane Lechler 3 121 40.3 1

Denver Broncos PASSING C/A YDS TD INT Brock Osweiler 27/37 (72%) 302 2 0 RUSHING ATT YDS AVG TD Willis McGahee 22 31 1.4 0 RECEIVING REC YDS AVG TD Demaryius Thomas 6 109 18.2 1 Eric Decker 6 55 9.2 1 Jacob Tamme 6 61 10.2 0 DEFENSE TACK SACK INT TD Quinton Carter 6 0 0 0 Jim Leonhard 6 0 0 0 D.J. Williams 6 0 0 0 Brent Grimes 5 0 0 0 Andra Davis 3 1 0 0 KICKING FG XP PTS LONG Matt Prater 2/3 56 PUNTING NO YDS AVG IN20 Dan Holte 3 137 45.7 0

Injury News:
DE Jack Crawford broke his wrist in this week's game and will be out for the next 4 weeks.

Scouting News:
With the team looking to move to the 3-4 in the offseaon, the team took a look at outside linebackers, checking mostly coverage ability, and defensive tackles, seeking high strength.

The team struck out with the linebackers in regards to man coverage. They couldn't find anyone with skills that appear to lean in that direction. There was one defensive tackle that stood out. Aaron Robinson of Baylor looks like he'll have the strength and size to handle being nose tackle. Scouts are loving the power he's showing so far.

The team found one prospect that might at least have coachable man coverage skills in middle linebacker Khalid Davis out of Arkansas. The question there, however, is: Can he run with NFL TEs? On tape, his speed does not look impressive, and that could hurt him at the next level with the athletes occupying the TE position.

Memphis' Tanner Bailey still looks to be the top linebacker on the team board. He doesn't do man coverage with any noticeable skill, but is teachable for zone coverage and hits like a tank from what shows up on tape.

Both Bailey and Davis are 4th round projections. DT Aaron Robinson is a borderline low-4th to high-5th round projection.

Concern across the league abounds for CB Fred Marshall. He broke his right arm and is out for the season. His agent says that Marshall will be ready to take part in drills at the combine, but most teams are skeptical and he has been removed from the league draft pool at this time.

Contract News:

WR Jacoby Ford rejected the team's initial contract extension offer. Reports are that the extension was worth around $8 million over 4 years. No word from team officials or Ford's agent about any subsequent offers.

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

Working on first half stats and standings and making the charts over using the fantasy type scoring.

In fact, I'm using NFL.com's scoring in the league I'm (getting owned) in.

http://fantasy.nfl.com/league/1319072/settings

Except for defense, I'll use the individual defense scoring I posted earlier (edit: I cut tackles to 2 per point as that seems to make a little more sense). Too bad there's no scoring for the OL, though. I guess they really don't have stats either? I know Madden tracks pancakes, but you can block well and not get one so that doesn't help, and not all sacks allowed are charged to a lineman.

I also didn't just want to stick Kickers on offense, but they'd make up 100% of ST, unless you have kick returns TDs, so I'm trying to come up with some way for punt net yards, inside 20 yd line punts, and KR/PR yards to have some value.

[KBLover]

Re: Rebuilding the Fear - Oakland Raiders M13 CCM

Stats Report Heading Into Second Half of Season