SDSU, no punting, no kicking

[Hooe]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

In theory, getting 2.5 yards a play isn't difficult.

I'm interested to see how successful this is.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

I'll also add that this extreme is preferable to the Jim Tressel dichotomy of punting from your opponent's 35 yard line on 4th and short.

If I had a few general rules of thumb about 4th-down decision making, they would be as follows:

a. Your opponent's 35-40 yard line is automatic go-for-it territory. A punt will, at best, net you 30ish yards and the chance of getting a couple of yards is much better than making a 53-58 yard field goal, particularly in college.

b. Teams should go for it on 4th and short (4 or fewer yards) outside their own red zone. This holds true even if a team is in field goal range (except near halftime). Even if a team goes for it on, say, a 4th and goal at the 4 and fails, they leave their opponent pinned deep in their own territory, which over the long run is worth a couple of points. The best-case scenario is 7 points.

These strategies are optimal in the first 3 quarters, when the main goal is point maximization. If you're up 17+ points in the fourth quarter or if you're down 2 points and at your opponent's 12 yard line with 15 seconds to go on 4th and short, well, play it safe in both situations.

Perhaps Rocky Long will be to football what Bill James is to baseball.

[Perfect Zero]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

You make some really good points there Chip, and I've done that before on NCAA Football when I kinda forgot to recruit a good kicker and ended up getting a shortie who had a range of 35 yards max. Perhaps that's what's going on at San Diego State...

[ILLocano]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

IRL, SDSU will be accused of cheesing. That Arkansas Coach would then be the epitome of a cheeser and he does it in real life. If either coach unlocked the ability to nano-blitz to become a reality then I don't want to live on this planet anymore.

[jth1331]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

I love how people state its a stupid idea, and will result in teams getting blown out.

This is like Moneyball, looking at stats to do what statistically is best for the team even though it is completely against the conventional wisdom.

Teams are waaaayyy too conservative IMO, especially college when kickers are a lot less accurate than NFL kickers.
You can argue saying you should punt on 4th and 3 from the 50 to pin the opponent, but the reality is, its probably statistically more probable that your team will score going for it, making it, and driving down the field than to punt the ball, and stop the opposing offense, get the ball back, and then hope to drive down the field again.

[Perfect Zero]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

I love how people state its a stupid idea, and will result in teams getting blown out.

This is like Moneyball, looking at stats to do what statistically is best for the team even though it is completely against the conventional wisdom.

Teams are waaaayyy too conservative IMO, especially college when kickers are a lot less accurate than NFL kickers.
You can argue saying you should punt on 4th and 3 from the 50 to pin the opponent, but the reality is, its probably statistically more probable that your team will score going for it, making it, and driving down the field than to punt the ball, and stop the opposing offense, get the ball back, and then hope to drive down the field again.

The idea behind sabrmetrics was not how to change play during the game, it was to find inequities in statistics with players. In fact, Beane made his team worse by telling them never to steal as it's an "automatic out." Just because something isn't done doesn't make it a worthwhile pursuit.

If San Diego State is confidant enough to do what you described in your scenario, then that's their business. Yet if they fail (and it will happen more often than not), you've basically given your opponent 40 yards and a confidence boost. San Diego State has to be perfect all the time. Otherwise they are just giving up the game.

[Jr.]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

The idea behind sabrmetrics was not how to change play during the game, it was to find inequities in statistics with players. In fact, Beane made his team worse by telling them never to steal as it's an "automatic out." Just because something isn't done doesn't make it a worthwhile pursuit.

If San Diego State is confidant enough to do what you described in your scenario, then that's their business. Yet if they fail (and it will happen more often than not), you've basically given your opponent 40 yards and a confidence boost. San Diego State has to be perfect all the time. Otherwise they are just giving up the game.

Why do you assume they will fail more often than not?

[jth1331]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

The idea behind sabrmetrics was not how to change play during the game, it was to find inequities in statistics with players. In fact, Beane made his team worse by telling them never to steal as it's an "automatic out." Just because something isn't done doesn't make it a worthwhile pursuit.

If San Diego State is confidant enough to do what you described in your scenario, then that's their business. Yet if they fail (and it will happen more often than not), you've basically given your opponent 40 yards and a confidence boost. San Diego State has to be perfect all the time. Otherwise they are just giving up the game.

Sabrmetrics were important in helping redefine value of a player and look beyond the normal BA, HR's and RBI's.

Now with not punting the ball, if they consistently do this, they will know they have 4 downs to pick up 10 yards, not 3, and IMO, coaches are too conservative with punting/kicking. If its 4th and 1 on your own 40, honestly, I'd go for it. I'd wager if this scenario happened 10 times, the offense would pick up the first down 7 times.
Its all about giving the other team great field position. Okay, thats a risk, but the probability of converting on 4th down is greater than not converting. Its statistics.
No bigger coach would do this even though the statistics would back them up on going for it, because like I stated earlier, its against conventional wisdom. Now of course if its extremely unlikely scenarios of converting, I would punt/kick the field goal.

[ImTellinTim]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

Teams are waaaayyy too conservative IMO, especially college when kickers are a lot less accurate than NFL kickers.
You can argue saying you should punt on 4th and 3 from the 50 to pin the opponent, but the reality is, its probably statistically more probable that your team will score going for it, making it, and driving down the field than to punt the ball, and stop the opposing offense, get the ball back, and then hope to drive down the field again.

This is especially true when playing against a favored team. The underdogs are really shooting themselves in the foot giving up on opportunities to get into a better scoring position.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

You make some really good points there Chip, and I've done that before on NCAA Football when I kinda forgot to recruit a good kicker and ended up getting a shortie who had a range of 35 yards max. Perhaps that's what's going on at San Diego State...

I detect a heavy dose of really obnoxious sarcasm here.

I don't have the data on me, but I'll bet literally anything that there is a significantly better chance of getting a couple of yards and a first down than making a 55+ yard field goal. This is likely especially true in college, given the laughable state of the kicking game.

EDIT: Special delivery:



So we have a roughly 50% FG conversion rate from the 35-40ish range and a 65-70% 4th down conversion rate on 4th and inches-1 outside the 20s and a high 50s-60% conversion rate on 4th and 2-3 outside the 20s. I'm floored.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

Yet if they fail (and it will happen more often than not)

Uh, care to provide evidence for this?

FWIW, in the NFL, 4th and 3s at the 50 yard line (jth's scenario) are converted nearly 60% of the time.

Yes, I know, "Chip Douglass is comparing apples and oranges by using NFL stats", but I do think the 60% conversion rate works as a plausible baseline (and is a hell of alot more empirical than your inexact gut feeling). I think it says something that in the case of average NFL offense vs. average NFL defense, the NFL offense converts more often than not (and at a 5:3 clip). There's not much I can tell you about SDSU other than the fact that they're replacing their starting backfield; however, they do play in a TCU-deprived MWC that has taken on the WAC's garbage pile and play Washington, 1AA, and Army OOC. I seriously doubt the math is dramatically different.

The fact that they're a mid-major means they should deploy a high-variance strategy, which includes going for it on 4th down, in the first place.

you've basically given your opponent 40 yards and a confidence boost.

And if you convert, you've basically given yourself 4 more downs and a confidence boost...and a chance to score. This works both ways.

You're comparing a worst-case scenario (failure to convert on 4th down) to a best-case scenario (opponent pinned at the 10) when the likely scenario is a conversion and a touchback**, respectively.

**The average NFL punt from the 50 yard line nets roughly 32 yards, implying that are a fair amount of touchbacks. You think a college punter could do better?

San Diego State has to be perfect all the time. Otherwise they are just giving up the game.

So in order for this strategy to be effective in your eyes, they have to convert every 4th down attempt?

LOL.

[jth1331]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

What do you know, an article on ESPN about going for it. Basically stating what I've been stating, that going for it is more likely, and statistically more sound, than not but coaches don't to avoid the criticism.

http://espn.go.com/espn/playbook/story/_/id/8307736/tmq-praises-coach-punt-celebrates-innovative-mind-football

[rdnk]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

I'll be rooting for SDSU. Anyone who attempts to challenge conventional wisdom always gets my support.

Although at the end of the day, it is not that big of a deal IMO. They're just going for it on 4th down more than average.

[Boltman]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

Go big or go home.

I love it.
¡Viva la Revolución!

These two responses cracked me up.

Either way, two & a half hours till we find out.

[franch1se]

Re: SDSU, no punting, no kicking

we'll find out today if this will be done or not