Instant Commits?

[LionsFan01]

Re: Instant Commits?

You can not get instant commits without the perk. Which i believe is broken. because if that was their true intent it's kinda dumb. I even had a situation in another a dynasty where I was LSU and had instant commit and never got a single 1 in 5 years. So there is even a chance where you instant commit can be broken as well. When I checked on the dynasty website. I would see some weird "??????" next to the recruits.

You could play a 20 year dynasty with Alabama and never get an instant commit. Unlikely, but possible. Having a 20% chance of getting an instant commit doesn't mean you'll get an instant commit 1 out of 5 times. That's not the way probabilities work.

[RonNewman75]

Re: Instant Commits?

You could play a 20 year dynasty with Alabama and never get an instant commit. Unlikely, but possible. Having a 20% chance of getting an instant commit doesn't mean you'll get an instant commit 1 out of 5 times. That's not the way probabilities work.

You actually only have a 10% probability of getting an instant commit while on the subject.

Meaning out of 35 offers you should only expect 3.5 commits.

Why is that Mr. Newman?

Well that's simple you have to take your 20% of chance and divide it by the number of possible out comes (2), thus giving you the probability of getting a instant commit.

By these standards most of us have been extremely lucky to get 4 or more instant commits.

[YanksFaninLouisiana]

Re: Instant Commits?

The insta commit works exactly as advertised. I have done extensive testing on this, and it works **perfectly** like it is supposed to at least with level 3 insta-commit skill. I think the reason why people think it's broken is because people think that with a 20% chance, you should get one every 5. This shows a fundamental lack of understanding how statistics work. It's a binomial, with p = 0.2.

I won't get into the exact mathematics here, but if you have 5 players you offer to (assuming they have you as #1 as they need to be), they **EACH** have a 20% chance of landing. We can use the probability mass function to determine that in fact, you have a ~32.77% chance of landing ZERO recruits in this scenario. If you think you "should" get at least one, you're falling into the same trap that the gambler falls into assuming "it must come up tails THIS time" because "it's due".

Let's say you're offering to 10 recruits, not 5. In that case, you STILL have a ~10.74% chance of getting zero recruits commit! Here's the actual pmf for offering to 10, which I think is about standard for those of us with the 20% skill.

0 signees ~ 10.74%
1 signees ~ 26.84%
2 signees ~ 30.20%
3 signees ~ 20.13%
4 signees ~ 8.81%
5 signees ~ 2.64%
6 signees ~ 0.55%
Anything 7+ is basically 0.

There are some other subtleties here in play, especially if you're doing M trials of N recruits. For example, if you were offering a recruit, and then reset if he didn't commit, you are doing something a little different. Here's the probabilities for NOT getting that recruit after a number of reloads:

0 Reloads ~ 80%
1 Reload ~  64%
2 Reload ~ 51.2%
3 Reload ~ 40.96%
4 Reload ~ 32.77%
5 Reloads ~ 26.21%
6 Reloads ~ 20.97%
7 Reloads ~ 16.78%
8 Reloads ~ 13.42%
9 Reloads ~ 10.74%
10 Reloads ~ 8.59%

So if you're "testing" the auto-commit, keep these in mind! You MUST keep in mind you are basically using a binomial distribution and trying to get success. You could have reloaded the game TEN times, and it could just be that you're quite unlucky. Such is the nature of statistics.

Anyway, that's the basics. Insta-Commit is working perfectly fine.

[YanksFaninLouisiana]

Re: Instant Commits?

aaaaand as I was writing all that I was beaten. hahaha. Anyway, the numbers I posted ARE ONLY GOOD for having the skill up to 20%.

[RonNewman75]

Re: Instant Commits?

The insta commit works exactly as advertised. I have done extensive testing on this, and it works **perfectly** like it is supposed to at least with level 3 insta-commit skill. I think the reason why people think it's broken is because people think that with a 20% chance, you should get one every 5. This shows a fundamental lack of understanding how statistics work. It's a binomial, with p = 0.2.

I won't get into the exact mathematics here, but if you have 5 players you offer to (assuming they have you as #1 as they need to be), they **EACH** have a 20% chance of landing. We can use the probability mass function to determine that in fact, you have a ~32.77% chance of landing ZERO recruits in this scenario. If you think you "should" get at least one, you're falling into the same trap that the gambler falls into assuming "it must come up tails THIS time" because "it's due".

Let's say you're offering to 10 recruits, not 5. In that case, you STILL have a ~10.74% chance of getting zero recruits commit! Here's the actual pmf for offering to 10, which I think is about standard for those of us with the 20% skill.

0 signees ~ 10.74%
1 signees ~ 26.84%
2 signees ~ 30.20%
3 signees ~ 20.13%
4 signees ~ 8.81%
5 signees ~ 2.64%
6 signees ~ 0.55%
Anything 7+ is basically 0.

There are some other subtleties here in play, especially if you're doing M trials of N recruits. For example, if you were offering a recruit, and then reset if he didn't commit, you are doing something a little different. Here's the probabilities for NOT getting that recruit after a number of reloads:

0 Reloads ~ 80%
1 Reload ~  64%
2 Reload ~ 51.2%
3 Reload ~ 40.96%
4 Reload ~ 32.77%
5 Reloads ~ 26.21%
6 Reloads ~ 20.97%
7 Reloads ~ 16.78%
8 Reloads ~ 13.42%
9 Reloads ~ 10.74%
10 Reloads ~ 8.59%

So if you're "testing" the auto-commit, keep these in mind! You MUST keep in mind you are basically using a binomial distribution and trying to get success. You could have reloaded the game TEN times, and it could just be that you're quite unlucky. Such is the nature of statistics.

Anyway, that's the basics. Insta-Commit is working perfectly fine.

This man is speaking the truth, I'm a math major.

[YanksFaninLouisiana]

Re: Instant Commits?

Here's the PMF for 35 trials in case y'all are crazy, which we all are:

In [53]: for i in range(0,36):
    print "For "+str(i)+" commits: ",stats.binom.pmf(i,35,0.2)
   ....:     
For 0 commits:  0.000405648192073
For 1 commits:  0.00354942168064
For 2 commits:  0.0150850421427
For 3 commits:  0.0414838658925
For 4 commits:  0.0829677317849
For 5 commits:  0.128599984267
For 6 commits:  0.160749980333
For 7 commits:  0.16649105106
For 8 commits:  0.145679669677
For 9 commits:  0.109259752258
For 10 commits:  0.0710188389676
For 11 commits:  0.0403516130498
For 12 commits:  0.0201758065249
For 13 commits:  0.00892391442447
For 14 commits:  0.0035058235239
For 15 commits:  0.00122703823336
For 16 commits:  0.000383449447926
For 17 commits:  0.000107140286921
For 18 commits:  2.67850717301e-05
For 19 commits:  5.99139762385e-06
For 20 commits:  1.19827952477e-06
For 21 commits:  2.13978486566e-07
For 22 commits:  3.40420319537e-08
For 23 commits:  4.81028712389e-09
For 24 commits:  6.01285890486e-10
For 25 commits:  6.61414479535e-11
For 26 commits:  6.35975461091e-12
For 27 commits:  5.29979550909e-13
For 28 commits:  3.78556822078e-14
For 29 commits:  2.28439461599e-15
For 30 commits:  1.14219730799e-16
For 31 commits:  4.60563430643e-18
For 32 commits:  1.43926072076e-19
For 33 commits:  3.27104709263e-21
For 34 commits:  4.81036337152e-23
For 35 commits:  3.4359738368e-25

This man is speaking the truth, I'm a math major.

Math was one of my many majors.

[NCAAFootballFreak]

Re: Instant Commits?

Here's the PMF for 35 trials in case y'all are crazy, which we all are:

In [53]: for i in range(0,36):
    print "For "+str(i)+" commits: ",stats.binom.pmf(i,35,0.2)
   ....:     
For 0 commits:  0.000405648192073
For 1 commits:  0.00354942168064
For 2 commits:  0.0150850421427
For 3 commits:  0.0414838658925
For 4 commits:  0.0829677317849
For 5 commits:  0.128599984267
For 6 commits:  0.160749980333
For 7 commits:  0.16649105106
For 8 commits:  0.145679669677
For 9 commits:  0.109259752258
For 10 commits:  0.0710188389676
For 11 commits:  0.0403516130498
For 12 commits:  0.0201758065249
For 13 commits:  0.00892391442447
For 14 commits:  0.0035058235239
For 15 commits:  0.00122703823336
For 16 commits:  0.000383449447926
For 17 commits:  0.000107140286921
For 18 commits:  2.67850717301e-05
For 19 commits:  5.99139762385e-06
For 20 commits:  1.19827952477e-06
For 21 commits:  2.13978486566e-07
For 22 commits:  3.40420319537e-08
For 23 commits:  4.81028712389e-09
For 24 commits:  6.01285890486e-10
For 25 commits:  6.61414479535e-11
For 26 commits:  6.35975461091e-12
For 27 commits:  5.29979550909e-13
For 28 commits:  3.78556822078e-14
For 29 commits:  2.28439461599e-15
For 30 commits:  1.14219730799e-16
For 31 commits:  4.60563430643e-18
For 32 commits:  1.43926072076e-19
For 33 commits:  3.27104709263e-21
For 34 commits:  4.81036337152e-23
For 35 commits:  3.4359738368e-25

Math was one of my many majors.

I'm by NO MEANS a math major, but I did take statistics last semester. I was trying to remember how to calculate this and as it turns out, I was correct! If I'm remembering how to interpret this correctly:

The probability of landing no instant commitments, out of 35 recruits offered, based on that first line is basically a .04% chance. That would mean you have a 99.96% chance of getting an instant commitment in 35 offers.

You math whizzes can correct me if I'm wrong . . . after all, I only made a B in statistics.

-- Stephen

[YanksFaninLouisiana]

Re: Instant Commits?

I'm by NO MEANS a math major, but I did take statistics last semester. I was trying to remember how to calculate this and as it turns out, I was correct! If I'm remembering how to interpret this correctly:

The probability of landing no instant commitments, out of 35 recruits offered, based on that first line is basically a .04% chance. That would mean you have a 99.96% chance of getting an instant commitment in 35 offers.

You math whizzes can correct me if I'm wrong . . . after all, I only made a B in statistics.

-- Stephen

I'm not a stats whiz by any means, but I *do* use stats literally every day for my job, so I like to think I'm good at it. Not nearly as good as the guys who are paid to be statisticians though.

Anyway, yes, you're reading that correctly. Assuming that you meet the requirements of insta-commit for all 35 guys.

HOWEVER, be warned:
The probabilities listed below are for **EXACTLY** that many commits. So there is a 1.5% of getting exactly 2. You actually have a much higher probability of getting MORE than 2!! For things like asking what the probability is you get "at least this much", there are things called cumulative distribution functions or CDFs. There are formulae for that, but you can determine it on your own with just a little addition.

EDIT:
If you're wanting to double check the math, the probability of k successes in n trials is given as:

P(k|n;p) = ( n! / (k!(n-k)!) ) * p^k * q^(1-k)

Where p is the probability of success and q is the probability of failure

[instant000]

Re: Instant Commits?

My success rate is at around 20%. The key is to not get thrown off when it takes 15+ tries to land a recruit. This happens to me sometimes, but if you include all the ones that hit on less than 3 attempts, the averages are still very much in line with 20%.

What I wish I knew was the exact factor that made the insta-commit happen. I was wondering if it was related to any factor that could be figured out [considering emulation, maybe in a tool-assisted kinda way?]

That is, for those who don't know the secret, it's more likely to be 20%, but if you know what exactly determines it AND had the exact timing to match that factor, you could be assured of success.

You know, kinda like 'Michael Larson' figuring out 'Press Your Luck'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EupPXp89Apw