BCS

[Dj2360]

The BCS Era

Bcs_logo_2010.png

[Dj2360]

Re: BCS

Tennessee and Ohio State leading the way, but the BCS Door is still wide open

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Although Tennessee, Ohio State, and Stanford are the only remaining undefeated teams, The BCS National Championship Game is still up for grabs.

Ok! As it stands, here's our lookout (The teams listed all have a shot at a BCS Bowl, with the bolded teams having a shot at a National Title):

#1 Tennessee (12-0)
#2 Ohio State (12-0)
#3 Stanford (12-0)
#4 Clemson (10-1)
#5 Oklahoma (10-2)
#6 Georgia (10-2) Edit: The case for Georgia legitimately making the National Title is little to none.
#7 Florida State (11-1)
#8 Miami (10-2) ???????
#9 LSU (10-2)
#10 Texas (10-2)
#11 Nebraska (10-2)
#13 Baylor (8-3)
#15 Wisconsin (9-3)
#16 Virginia (10-2)
#18 Oregon (8-4)
#19 Kansas State (8-3) Long-shot
#20 Bowling Green (9-3) Another long-shot
#24 Utah (8-4)

Note: Unfortunately, #8 Miami is ranked below #4 Clemson, and their Conference Championship Game is between Virginia and Florida State, so there is no chance for Miami to make a BCS Bowl, because of the 2-team limit per conference.

ANOTHER SIDE NOTE ABOUT MIAMI: Technically, in 1999, the BCS released what's called the 3-4 rule: If a team finishes ranked #3 or #4 in the BCS standings, they automatically qualify for a BCS bowl... With that being said, I don't know if that is programmed into this game, unfortunately; However, there is a path for Miami to finish #4 (See Below).

EDIT: The 3-4 rule applies to the #3 ranked team that finishes as a non-AQ in an AQ conference (Provided that in the same conference, there isn't a team finishing as an At-large team in the National Championship)... But the #4 ranking applies to a non-AQ team in an AQ conference, IF the #3 ranked team is an AQ team that receives a Conference Championship bid (And there isn't a non-AQ team from the same conference in the National Championship)... But because the only way for Miami to finish #4 is to have Clemson finish ahead of them as an At-large bid in the national championship, and Georgia finishes as a non-AQ in an AQ conference, it's impossible for Miami...

Alright! Now that we have this foreknowledge, lets dig right in....

If every higher ranked team wins, here's what we would have:

Tennessee vs. Ohio State - BCS NCG
Standford vs. (At-large) - Rose Bowl
Oklahoma vs. (At-large) - Fiesta Bowl
Florida State vs. (At-large) - Orange Bowl
(At-large) vs. (At-large) - Sugar Bowl
The At-large teams: Clemson, Georgia, Texas, Wisconsin, and Oregon.

Looking at this, it seems pretty standard, pretty clean... All these teams are highly ranked for the most part.

Now I bet you're wondering how teams like Florida State and LSU actually have a shot at a national title? I'll show your right here:

Forewarning, madness is required.

Note: There is a legitimate battle for final ranking spot between Tennessee and Georgia, IF and only IF Tennessee loses to LSU... The team that finishes higher between the two will be given the 2nd SEC At-large bid. So when you see "(Georgia or Tennessee)", this is why.

So the path for Ohio State and Tennessee is pretty simple, all they need to do is win their respected Conference Championship Games, and their in... For Stanford, they just need 1 team to lose, and if they win, their in...

But let's just say that ALL THREE TEAMS LOSE.

Nebraska defeats Ohio State
LSU Defeats Tennessee
Utah defeats Stanford

If this happened, we would have 1 lock, Clemson... They're in.

But who would be the second team? Well, if you think about it, it's not that simple... Naturally, you would say Oklahoma right? Well, what about LSU beating the #1 team, that could merit a jump? And knowing these computers, they could very well have LSU jump Oklahoma... Or how about Florida State? They only have 1-loss, and finishing 12-1 would look really nice...

#1: Clemson
#2: (Oklahoma, Florida State, or LSU) ???
#5: (Georgia or Tennessee)
#7-10: Nebraska, Miami, Ohio State, and Texas

Our bowl games would look something like this: (Lets pretend LSU gets the bid)
BCS NCG: Clemson vs. LSU
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. (At-Large)
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: (At-large) vs. (At-large)
At-large teams: Ohio State, (Georgia or Tennessee), Texas, and Stanford

But here's another wild card: Oklahoma still needs to beat Oklahoma State, but what if they lose? Then all of a sudden Georgia's name is mentioned. I mean, they are sitting right behind Oklahoma right?

Lets say every underdog wins, so tack 1-loss to Oklahoma, Ohio State, Tennessee, Florida State, Texas, and Stanford... What would our BCS look like?

#1 Clemson
#2? LSU
#3? (Georgia or Tennessee)
#4-5? Miami (insane) and Nebraska
Remaining top 10ish: Florida, Ohio State, Stanford, Baylor, Virginia, Florida State.

So at this point, here's our BCS lookout if every team loses (Including Oklahoma):

BCS: Clemson vs. LSU
Rose: Nebraska vs. Utah
Orange: Virginia vs. (At-large)
Fiesta: Baylor vs. (At-large)
Sugar: (At-large) vs. (At-large)
At-large teams: Ohio State, Stanford, (Georgia or Tennessee), and then? Texas, Oklahoma, Bowling Green, or Kansas State. note: based on current rankings, the highest ranked team will most likely be Oklahoma.

Now lets play out this same scenario, but instead lets have Oklahoma defeat Oklahoma State.

BCS: Clemson vs. Oklahoma (I gave Oklahoma the benefit of the doubt, but LSU could still jump them)
Rose: Nebraska vs. Utah
Sugar: LSU vs. (At-large)
Orange: Virginia vs. (At-large)
Fiesta: (At-large) vs. (At-large)
At-large teams: Ohio State, (Georgia or Tennessee), Baylor, and Stanford

The USER Scenario

Nebraska defeats Ohio State
Utah defeats Stanford
Virginia defeats Florida State
Everything else happens according to the books

NCG: Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah
Orange Bowl: Virginia vs. (At-large)
Fiesta Bowl: (At-large) vs. (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: (At-large) vs. (At-large)
At-large teams: Ohio State, Stanford, Clemson, Texas, (Georgia or Tennessee)

So here's what's really going on in all this BCS Business:

Clemson, Ohio State, and Stanford are locked in BCS-bowl games, it's just a matter of which games.

Teams who controls their own destiny in the BCS (they win, their in)?
Tennessee, LSU, Nebraska, Florida State, Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah.

Teams that need everything to go according to the books?
Wisconsin and Oregon (If higher ranked teams win, they're both in VIA At-large bids)
Georgia (Battling Tennessee, see the rankings explanation above)

Teams that need some madness?
Baylor (Oklahoma or Texas need to lose)
Kansas State (They need every higher ranked team to lose, including both Oklahoma and Texas, and pray they finish higher in the rankings then Oklahoma, Texas, and Bowling Green)
Bowling Green (Just like Kansas State, they need every team to lose, and hope they finish as the highest ranked At-large team available)
Miami (Edit: Impossible)

So there you have it folks... The BCS.

[Dj2360]

Re: BCS

Week 9 Analysis

Bcs_logo_2010.png

<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" /><link href="http://dynasties.operationsports.com/css/osdyn.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"></head><body><table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" class="osdyn" width="575"><tr class="masthead_alt"><td bgcolor="#871016" colspan="6"><span style="color:#FFFFFF">NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Oct 28, 2020</span></td></tr><tr class="stathead"><td width="8%">RK</td><td width="8%">LW</td><td width="49%">TEAM (VOTES)</td><td align="center" width="10%">W</td><td align="center" width="10%">L</td><td align="center" width="15%">POINTS</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>1</td><td>--</td><td>Texas</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>2</td><td>--</td><td>Virginia Tech</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>3</td><td>--</td><td>Nebraska</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>4</td><td>--</td><td>Clemson</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>5</td><td>--</td><td>Ohio State</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>6</td><td>--</td><td>North Carolina</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>7</td><td>--</td><td>LSU</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>8</td><td>--</td><td>Stanford</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>9</td><td>--</td><td>South Carolina</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>10</td><td>--</td><td>Baylor</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>11</td><td>--</td><td>Oregon</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>12</td><td>--</td><td>Florida</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>13</td><td>--</td><td>Miami</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>14</td><td>--</td><td>Penn State</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>15</td><td>--</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>16</td><td>--</td><td>Utah</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>17</td><td>--</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>18</td><td>--</td><td>Florida State</td><td align="center">4</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>19</td><td>--</td><td>Louisiana Monroe</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>20</td><td>--</td><td>California</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>21</td><td>--</td><td>Kansas State</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>22</td><td>--</td><td>West Virginia</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>23</td><td>--</td><td>Alabama</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>24</td><td>--</td><td>Virginia</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>25</td><td>--</td><td>Tennessee</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td></tr></table></body></html>

So, here's what we have so far... I'll try to make this entertaining!

Teams that have a realistic shot at the BCS NCG
Texas
V-Tech
Nebraska
Clemson
Ohio State
UNC
Stanford
LSU
South Carolina
Baylor

The list is extensive, I could have added teams like Florida, Penn State and Miami, but I had to cut it off somewhere.

Anyways, all these teams could realistically make it...

Teams that control their own destiny (They win, they're in)
Texas and V-Tech...

Next men up
Nebraska - Texas or V-Tech need to lose, and NEB needs to win out, and hopefully face a top 5 Ohio State in the B1G.
Clemson - Someone needs to lose, and all they need to do is win out, and beat a highly ranked Coastal team in the CCG.
Ohio State - They need to beat a top-ranked Neb squad in the B1G CCG, and win out...

Further out
UNC - They're in the ACC, and as long as they win out, and win the conference, they can get in if some other teams lose.
Stanford - They need to win out, and have some other teams lose, because it doesn't look like the team they'd face in their CCG (USC, UCLA, or Utah) will be highly ranked.
LSU - If they beat a highly ranked South Carolina in the CCG, they could slip in.
South Carolina - Same thing as LSU, they need to beat a highly ranked LSU in their CCG.
Baylor - Well, they still have Texas on their schedule, if they knock off #1, and win out, they finish 11-1.

Some Longshots
Oregon - They need to win out, and win their conference, with some teams losing.
Florida - First off, they're a game behind in the SEC East, they NEED to win their conference, and beat a highly ranked LSU team, with most top teams dropping a game...
Penn State - They need to beat top ranked Ohio State, and then NEB in the CCG... Also some other teams must lose.
Miami - They need madness. If they win out, and beat a highly ranked Clemson team, with other teams losing, they could make it.
Notre Dame - If they finish 11-1, they could slip in. They also still have Stanford in week 14, they need Stanford to be 10-1, but almost every single team ranked ahead of them NEEDS to lose.

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Some Games to Look Out For

Week 10:Stanford vs. Oregon
Week 11:Baylor vs. Texas
Week 12:Penn State vs. Ohio State; South Carolina vs. Florida; Virginia Tech vs. Miami
Week 14:Stanford vs. Notre Dame; South Carolina vs. Clemson

[Dj2360]

Re: BCS

Nearing the End

As we get closer and closer to Conference Championship Week, the BCS picture is becoming clearer and clearer.

<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" /><link href="http://dynasties.operationsports.com/css/osdyn.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"></head><body><table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" class="osdyn" width="575"><tr class="masthead_alt"><td bgcolor="#FF0000" colspan="6"><span style="color:#0C0000">NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Nov 11, 2020</span></td></tr><tr class="stathead"><td width="8%">RK</td><td width="8%">LW</td><td width="49%">TEAM (VOTES)</td><td align="center" width="10%">W</td><td align="center" width="10%">L</td><td align="center" width="15%">POINTS</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>North Carolina</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>Nebraska</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>3</td><td>4</td><td>Clemson</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>4</td><td>9</td><td>Baylor</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>5</td><td>5</td><td>Ohio State</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>6</td><td>6</td><td>LSU</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>Texas</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>8</td><td>8</td><td>Oregon</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>9</td><td>10</td><td>South Carolina</td><td align="center">9</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>10</td><td>11</td><td>Florida</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>11</td><td>12</td><td>Stanford</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>12</td><td>13</td><td>Miami</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>13</td><td>14</td><td>Penn State</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>14</td><td>16</td><td>Utah</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>15</td><td>17</td><td>West Virginia</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>16</td><td>7</td><td>Virginia Tech</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>17</td><td>18</td><td>Tennessee</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>18</td><td>20</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>19</td><td>22</td><td>UCLA</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>20</td><td>15</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>21</td><td>19</td><td>Virginia</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>22</td><td>24</td><td>Western Kentucky</td><td align="center">7</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>23</td><td>--</td><td>Tulane</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>24</td><td>--</td><td>Pittsburgh</td><td align="center">5</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center"></td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>25</td><td>21</td><td>Navy</td><td align="center">6</td><td align="center">2</td><td align="center"></td></tr></table></body></html>

As is stands, our National Championship looks like it will pit the champion of the BIG TEN against an ACC team.

For Nebraska and Ohio State, it's simple. The team that wins, is in. (Assuming #5 Ohio State would jump #4 Baylor with a win against Nebraska)

However, Conference Championship Week is peculiar, because Clemson is set to face Miami, not North Carolina. However, North Carolina is still seemingly a lock for the National Championship, as long as they finished 11-1. But Clemson should cross their fingers, because if UNC loses, they're the next man up.

For Baylor, they need some help... A team or two needs to lose, and some upsets need to happen in conference championship week.

Another team worth watching is South Carolina... Yes they are ranked #9, but they only have 1-loss... They face #3 Clemson in two weeks. Could be a dark-horse in the BCS NC race.

Moving on to our BCS Bowls, given our current rankings, here's what we have

BCS National Championship North Carolina vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl LSU vs. Baylor
Orange Bowl Clemson vs. (At-large)
Fiesta Bowl (At-large) vs. (At-large)
Rose Bowl Oregon vs. (At-large)
AL Teams Ohio State, Texas, South Carolina, Stanford

Teams on the fence
#10 Florida, #12 Miami, #13 Penn State, #14 Utah...

For Florida, they play South Carolina this week in Williams-Brice Stadium. The winner of this game determines the SEC East.

For teams like Utah, Miami and Penn State, all they need to do is win out, and they're in... Utah is set to face Oregon in the PAC-12 CCG. Miami currently holds the tie-breaker with North Carolina in the Coastal, so as it stands, they will face Clemson. Penn State has Ohio State, if they win that game, they would be set to represent the B1G East.

Some teams further out
#19 UCLA, #14 West Virginia

These teams need some serious help... Their hopes aren't completely gone, but it's unlikely. E.G. UCLA needs Utah to lose a Pac-12 game, and then they would actually represent the Pac-12 South in the CCG... West Virginia needs Texas or Baylor to fall off the map...

[Dj2360]

Re: BCS

BOWL SEASON

Power 5 Conference Records/Results (2020-2021)

ACC
Overall record: 4-5
BCS Bowls: North Carolina Lost Rose Bowl, Clemson Lost BCS NC

B1G
Overall record: 4-4
BCS Bowls: Ohio State Lost Orange Bowl, Nebraska Won BCS NC

Big 12
Overall record: 3-5
BCS Bowls: West Virginia Won Fiesta Bowl, Baylor Lost Sugar Bowl

Pac-12
Overall record: 8-0
BCS Bowls: Utah Won Rose Bowl

SEC
Overall record: 5-4
BCS Bowls: Florida Won Sugar Bowl, Tennessee Won Orange Bowl

Notre Dame Lost Fiesta Bowl

[Dj2360]

BCS

2021 Headlined With Shocking Upsets So Far

Ohio State's loss to Cincinnati in week 2 is the largest point spread upset since FCS Howards upset of UNLV in 2017. The Buckeyes came in as an overwhelming 39-point favorite (Cinci was projected with a 3.5% chance to win)... I'm not really sure how Ohio State will recover either. They still have North Carolina in week 4, so a chance to recover, and they're still in the top 25.

Alabama's historically worst start (In two decades)... They're 0-3. L to Nebraska, Missouri, and Florida. Nick Saban's days could be numbered.

Northwestern's BCS statement. They are 2-0, and they just upset #11 Notre Dame. Their division is looking strong in non-conference play so far as well. LOL, YES! The B1G West! They only have 1 loss, and that was Illinois' loss to an FCS school. Key wins include: Northwestern beat Notre Dame, Wisconsin beat Washington, Nebraska beat Baylor, Illinois upset a ranked Utah State, and Purdue beat Missouri.

Tulane's blowout win against Georgia Tech (Followed by a loss). (Tulane won 48-10) Yes Tulane came in the year as pre-season #20, but nobody expected them to obliterate Tech. In fact, Vegas had Tech as a 2.4 point favorite... But then Tulane turns around and gets defeated 44-41 by Wake Forest!

Florida's defense ?????? I don't think anybody knows what's actually going on with this unit, LOL. They give up 52 points to Auburn in their first game, then turn around and just dominate Alabama... Could have been opening week nerves? Who knows, but one things for sure, if they're going to compete for the BCS, they need to figure it out soon.

Games To Watch

Moving forward, here are some games that will affect the BCS race (Up to week 7).

Week 4

Miami @ Nebraska: These two giants seem to be on a crash course, that may ultimately end up with both in a rematch for the National Title. Only time will tell, but this game will arguably be the biggest regular season game all year.

Tennessee @ Florida: This game should be interesting. UT has looked dominant so far, but they haven't played anybody. Florida has looked odd, their schedule is tough early on, but their defense has been questionable. This game should be huge for the SEC East.

North Carolina @ Ohio State: The Buckeyes NEED this win if they want any kind of relevancy this season... But North Carolina is looking to win back-to-back and make a big statement.

Stanford @ UCLA: Despite Stanford's bad start to the season, they have a chance to make a statement with this win. However, UCLA is looking to start their season under new head coach JP 4-0, can they hold off the Cardinal?

Week 5

Miami @ Clemson: So the Hurricanes travel to Nebraska, then next week travel to Clemson... This should be very interesting, as these two teams are poised to meet for a rematch as well, in the ACC Ship.

Notre Dame @ North Carolina: Despite ND's 0-2 start, they are still in a position to make a strong BCS statement. UNC is tested, yet again.

Week 6

Ohio State @ Nebraska: Ohio State's season looks like it's hanging by threads, if they don't beat UNC, how will they compete with Nebraska? But, any given Saturday a team can show up, this one should be interesting.

Penn State @ Wisconsin: A rematch in the 2016 B1G Championship game sets a thriller between these two squads, both teams should be undefeated coming into this match-up as well.

Week 7

Tennesse @ UCLA: The best of the SEC against the best of the PAC-12. This one is big, folks.

North Carolina @ Miami: Seems like Miami and UNC are in here week in and week out. Not too sure if that's a blessing or a curse, but we'll see. Even if these teams drop a game or 2 with their loaded schedules, they still have many chances to rebound, and this game is one of them.