I'm mostly playing devil's advocate here, since I think it's probable gameplay has had some impact on down sales, but:
Madden has been around forever, whereas I'm pretty sure The Show is still pretty new as a franchise. Psychologically, it's a lot more difficult for someone to look at their game collection containing 10 versions of Madden and say "You know what I need? The newest Madden." Whereas you look at the same collection and say "Hmm, already have 3 The Shows. Yeah, I can get the newest one."
Speaking from personal experience, until last year the last Madden I owned was '05, which was awesome for Xbox. On a whim I got '09 and just never played it, since I was more into Oblivion and College Hoops 2k8. I have no idea whether '09 was any good or not, but word of mouth was that it was terrible and not really worth it. This year I decided not to get Madden until hearing from a trusted friend that this year's version was a vast improvement over previous versions, especially for what I was looking for (and that there weren't the same problems of marketing NEW AND EXCITING FEATURES that weren't simply features that used to be there, were taken out, and then put back in again).
I love the game. It's far from perfect, but it's enjoyable. The sim stats for franchises are off, but I'm also playing a fantasy draft franchise, which is also unrealistic. Plus, I remember the days of NFL Quarterback Club '98 for N64, when I was perfectly happy even though every quarterback finished the year somewhere between like 65% and 70% completion percentage.
Gameplay has come so far in the last 10 years that we've gotten spoiled and just assume that the code writing for all this stuff must be easy. Doesn't anyone look at the Madden disc anymore and say "My God. Somewhere on this disc, somehow, someone has done something so that when I put this disc into this machine, Madden happens on my TV due to a series of logic functions affecting on/off switches." Technology is crazy.
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