NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

[Aggies7]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

simfballcritic isn't convincing me:

"Now from what I'm hearing, they are presenting a football game to the NFL..."

"You have to remember, they don't have the license. They can't produce anything NFL related until they have a license. I wouldn't expect gameplay, but we will see."

Those words don't jive with "NFL 2K Football to return at E3 2014."

They can still create a football game and get the base model down to present to the NFL. If approved pre E3 they could just show off gameplay models and began Adding teams/players/logos/stadiums which can all be done after approval and E3.

Granted I don't believe this to be the case as that is an awfully big risk to start production monetarily to not get approved in the end.

[Hooe]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

i mean, all pro sold 76,000 copies after the first two weeks. that's 4.5 million dollars. what exactly was the development cost of the game? they at least made a solid million there. who's going to spit at a million dollar profit?

The AAA video game industry would and absolutely does sneeze at $4.5 million gross revenue (and its lifetime gross of $22 million based on VGChartz' estimated sales figures of 370000 total units sold). This is an industry where AAA project budgets have cracked triple-digit millions and big-budget games like Tomb Raider which sold 6 million copies are considered "unsuccessful".

I obviously don't have access to 2K's financials, but 370k units / $22 million gross on a boxed-released XBOX 360 / PS3 game strikes me as pretty bad. Barring some sort of shoestring budget or an incredibly small development staff, I can't imagine APF 2K8 came close to breaking even.

If APF proved viable in some form it would have already returned.

Quoted for emphasis.

[bad_philanthropy]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

Yeah APF is not coming back. As far as I'm concerned, with development costs what they are today, there is no way any sports simulation is released by a mainstream publisher without a licensing deal in place with a well-established sports IP.

[coogrfan]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

Normally I would agree. But perhaps 2K would do it this way to elicit public response that would put added pressure on the NFL to do a new/favorable deal, provided that the possibility for one is open. If what they were to show turns out to be something amazing, it would send shockwaves through the internet.



I wouldn't expect a game this year either, but the June-August thing actually means nothing. All that matters is how long they've been working on the game prior.



All of that is actually an internet myth. Thing is, the Pecover V. Electronic Arts lawsuit disproved that myth entirely a long time ago. When you read the Federal documents and court subpoenaed memos from that case, you'll find that it was EA, not the NFL, who made a stink over the pricing drop because they didn't want to have to lower the price of Madden going forward (and give up considerable profit margin) to combat it. In response to it, EA approached the NFL for an exclusive, in fact the documents map out the entire sequence of what happened point-by-point. EA was defeated in that case.

When you read those EA executive memos about what NFL 2K5 was doing to them, you can just picture a bunch of grown men running around the office in terror like Godzilla was coming. It's hilarious, and pathetic.

I was under the impression the case was settled out of court. Or am I mistaken?

[Hooe]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

I was under the impression the case was settled out of court. Or am I mistaken?

You're not mistaken, it was settled out of court.

[Steelers4190]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

Hahaha That would be a sight

[coogrfan]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

You're not mistaken, it was settled out of court.

Hmm. If the paper trail was as damning as FaceMask claims why would the plaintiffs settle?

[Big FN Deal]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

Maybe I'm looking at this from the wrong way but it always seemed reasonable to me that 2k or some other developer would take another crack at a football game on the new consoles, NFL licensed or not. It seems to me that a fundamentally well done generic football video game, with a full franchise/season capability and vast customization options, would incentivize the NFL to want to license that game to capitalize on its' potential profit. It's for that reason I could see 2k putting something like that out there.

I read where people use APF2k8 to dismiss the notion others espouse about a generic football game having enough ROI for a developer to bother but I don't understand the correlation. A better correlation, imo, is to NCAA football, in which EA provided things they legally could, ie teams,logos, stadiums, etc and left the rest on the gaming community. If 2K were to release a PS4/Xbox1 graphically updated version of APF2k, with all the features from NFL2k5 and more customization, minus the NFL/NFLPA/ESPN properties, it would dwarf the sales of both NFL2k5 and APF2k8, imo.

I think some people may be approaching this matter from an outdated prospective because I think new consoles, social media, mass nostalgia and just a general interest in playing something different for the younger generation makes even a generic football game viable. Again, which in turn incentivizes the NFL to want to get in on those potential profits, imo.

[Hooe]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

A better correlation, imo, is to NCAA football, in which EA provided things they legally could, ie teams,logos, stadiums, etc and left the rest on the gaming community. If 2K were to release a PS4/Xbox1 graphically updated version of APF2k, with all the features from NFL2k5 and more customization, minus the NFL/NFLPA/ESPN properties, it would dwarf the sales of both NFL2k5 and APF2k8, imo.

Not a good model because EA Sports NCAA Football had a license to use team names and team logos from the second-biggest football league in existence, the NCAA. Those team names, conference names, the BCS name, etc. alone sell the game to a major extent, regardless of real players on the roster, especially in the southeast United States where NCAA FBS college football's popularity can trump even the NFL's in some areas. Further, college football fans are quite used to interchangeable players on the roster, it's the nature of the sport, and many fans are cheering on their teams based on a connection to a particular school or institution rather than a connection to any particular player. As long as they see the appropriate digital laundry on the screen when they open the box and put the disc in, they're good to go.

As I said before, there's no model for an unlicensed game not named "Blitz" performing well at retail. Without such a model present, no publisher is going to invest multi-millions into any developer's proposal for a simulation sports console game. A video game publisher places bets it thinks it can win with, and publishers now more than ever are particularly choosy about their partners. They want to see games that can make money, they want proof that the game can make money beforehand, and they want examples before opening the purse strings. Visual Concepts as a studio has a track record of success big-picture, absolutely. However, the specific project proposed - a console football video game lacking a major league license - has several of examples of economic failure, be it APF, Backbreaker, Tecmo Bowl Throwback, or BCFX. Between that and a juggernaut of a competitor in the same video game space - Madden NFL - no publisher is going to make that bet. Even absent that, the grassroots support for 2K football seen in this community is nowhere near large enough to justify funding the game on its own.

It's not outdated thinking. It's economics.

[Big FN Deal]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

My point is that those games you listed as examples, aren't, at least not to the type of unlicensed football game others and I have espoused. All those examples were lacking much more than just NFL licensing.

That said I understand your general POV but I see it differently.

[inkcil]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

Taking chances, dealing with uncertainty, creating "new markets," creating specialized goods and applying new technology is also a part of economics. Certainly 2k must have had some projections calculated before producing 2k8. And were there many shining examples of successful unlicensed sim sports games back then? But they still took that chance.

A new market, new technology, unpredictable factors...sounds familiar to what we have right now. So it wouldn't surprise me if they gave some type of football game a try on the new consoles at least once this generation. We just have no idea when that could be.

[blacboy]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

My point is that those games you listed as examples, aren't, at least not to the type of unlicensed football game others and I have espoused. All those examples were lacking much more than just NFL licensing.

That said I understand your general POV but I see it differently.

To this day when i play 2k8, the what if they had put a generic 2k5 franchise engine in this game question always comes to mind. Every single time i play!!!

[FaceMask]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

An unlicensed AAA football game in this day and age is a lofty, risky proposition, because the space has been dominated for so long by licensed properties. When Midway decided to do Blitz The League, that was a huge gamble, and Sony had not long before decided to bow out and cancel Road To Sunday (and Sony wasn't the only company that bowed out). You have to admire the guts Midway had to stick with it when everybody was calling them crazy and everybody else was running away scared.

I recall a story (told by a Midway head himself) where one of Midway's heads was told by the NFL that the NFL was still willing to do a deal with them around the time EA was about to do a deal with the NFL. The NFL proposed a price that Midway thought was outrageous, and the head told the NFL something like "Screw it, we'll just make our own game!" The NFL laughed and thought Midway was kidding, but they reassured the NFL they were serious, and from that came Blitz The League.

I think it will be awfully hard to push an unlicensed AAA football game without great marketing, a really robust and fleshed out concept, a strong story mode and/or franchise mode, and enough customization to be satisfactory to the majority. And if the game is too sterile like APF was, it won't get any attention. Blitz The League I hit all the marks, and it was "in your face". But had they missed on just one of those things I think the game might have bombed. It's a very delicate tightrope act.

I would kill for a game with the type of concept design Blitz The League had, but with sim football gameplay and deep customization. The thing about Blitz The League I was that the concept and mood was so strong that it drew you into its world and made you feel like you were really in it. You got hooked on reading the league's history and the history of each team, the logos and team names were great, and learning about the different players and their personalities and personal lives was a nice touch. The off-the field fights, drugs, cheating, training, weekly headlines and trash talk between teams drew you in even deeper. And for me, having weekly bets and on-field goals sealed it. APF had none of that, it was just a great playing game on the field and nothing else; it was a very sterile experience overall and that couldn't appeal to the masses.

You'd have to think 2K would know better this time around, and I'd love to see it if an NFL game is not a possibility. But I have a strong feeling that if there is no NFL deal for them, they're just not going to go in this direction.

[Hooe]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

Taking chances, dealing with uncertainty, creating "new markets," creating specialized goods and applying new technology is also a part of economics. Certainly 2k must have had some projections calculated before producing 2k8. And were there many shining examples of successful unlicensed sim sports games back then? But they still took that chance.

A new market, new technology, unpredictable factors...sounds familiar to what we have right now. So it wouldn't surprise me if they gave some type of football game a try on the new consoles at least once this generation. We just have no idea when that could be.

I'd give this some benefit of the doubt if there was some novel idea being presented, something that hadn't been done before which would literally move the gaming goalposts. Guitar Hero created an entire genre of games. The Nintendo Wii and Wii Sports introduced gamers a means to interact with games in a way which hadn't previously been done before (or at least, done well). Minecraft provided gamers with the ultimate sandbox with which to make pretty much anything simply by placing a punching blocks. Portal and Portal 2 stretched the imagination of what can be done from a first-person gun-toting game without so much as firing a single projectile.

A new simulation football game, league license or no, doesn't change the landscape the way these games did. As far as the general public cares, Madden NFL is the simulation football game. The average member of the general public doesn't know enough about the sport of football to know any better about the areas of the game which do not accurately represent its real-life counterpart. Heck, I work with a dozen video game fanatics, and as far as most of them are concerned Madden NFL is the definitive sports game period because it's the one they've heard of (I'm the only sports gamer in my office and I get ridiculed to death for it, haha).

A new audience isn't being brought in to sports gaming by creating a thorough and detailed situation; if anything, it'll scrape off the market of players who play Madden and want something more detailed, and if 2K has the NFL license (which they don't as far as anyone knows) they'll only cannibalize the football gaming market that already exists, but that's it. If there's going to be a non-licensed football game that succeeds, it's going to have to succeed for a reason beyond playing a good football game, and probably do something no one here wants from a hypothetical APF 2K8 successor.

My point is that those games you listed as examples, aren't, at least not to the type of unlicensed football game others and I have espoused. All those examples were lacking much more than just NFL licensing.

What am I missing, then? Because here's what I see in those four titles:

• simulation football game without a major league license featuring members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, critically-acclaimed proprietary football gameplay engine, and highly visible publisher branding fails to sell
• simulation football game without a major league license featuring a robust player physics system and highly-customizable everything fails to sell
• simulation football game without a major league license (but with a minor league license) featuring cross-over appeal with rhythm gameplay components during halftime shows fails to sell
• arcade football game without major league license with name brand recognition, nostalgia-invoking gameplay and atmosphere, and high degree of customization fails to sell

Other than a lengthy career mode, which none of these games featured as far as I know, what am I missing? If career mode is the lone distinction between what is missing and what some large swath of people so desperately want - why would a career mode be a viable solution to the problem of why these games wouldn't sell if they weren't appealing to their customers in their most fundamental base form (exhibition and online vs play)?

I want to understand what you see that I don't because I see absolutely no path forward for an unlicensed game in the current AAA gaming climate.

[Hooe]

Re: NFL 2k COMEBACK? License not exclusive?

I would kill for a game with the type of concept design Blitz The League had, but with sim football gameplay and deep customization. The thing about Blitz The League I was that the concept and mood was so strong that it drew you into its world and made you feel like you were really in it. You got hooked on reading the league's history and the history of each team, the logos and team names were great, and learning about the different players and their personalities and personal lives was a nice touch. The off-the field fights, drugs, cheating, training, weekly headlines and trash talk between teams drew you in even deeper. And for me, having weekly bets and on-field goals sealed it. APF had none of that, it was just a great playing game on the field and nothing else; it was a very sterile experience overall and that couldn't appeal to the masses.

The other thing Blitz: The League had was the "Blitz" name. People recognize that name and it immediately invokes the memories of over-the-top arcade football from the coin-op arcades. Branding is important.

That said, I enjoyed Blitz: The League as a game for the same reasons you mentioned above. Midway knocked that one out of the park, IMO; it's a shame they couldn't maintain that momentum.