Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

[hokster]

Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

Maybe this isn't something you've thought about since you're reusing a draft path (and of course therefore know it inside and out), but what are your thoughts on scouting strategy? Do you scout to 100% during the season or do you find you get diminishing returns from that last session? Do you scout based on upcoming need (or, let's say at the beginning of a new career when you're trying to make the team look like your team, do you primarily draft to fill holes)? How do you prioritize which players to give a closer look at at the senior bowl, combine, etc?

Thanks!

[Mike3207]

Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

Any advice for those who supersim games rather than "play"? Any things we should focus on more? Do the amounts of viable strategies differ depending if you play or supersim? i.e. Is it easier to have a run-first offense in supersim?

Yes, it's easier to run the ball in supersim. It's generally easier to run the ball than pass in supersim. You can expect to see defense much improved and scoring to be down in this mode. Turnovers will also to be be on the increase.I'd suggest trying 14 minute quarters, as you won't be able to call as many plays as playing the games.

[ebongreen]

On scouting and GM development

Maybe this isn't something you've thought about since you're reusing a draft path (and of course therefore know it inside and out), but what are your thoughts on scouting strategy? Do you scout to 100% during the season or do you find you get diminishing returns from that last session? Do you scout based on upcoming need (or, let's say at the beginning of a new career when you're trying to make the team look like your team, do you primarily draft to fill holes)? How do you prioritize which players to give a closer look at at the senior bowl, combine, etc?

Thanks!

Upon starting a new career, hokster, one of the first things I do for my General Manager is purchase the Insider special skills. Once those are done, I never have to worry about in-season scouting again. During the season for a draft I don't know well, I make a list of the players who are likely to be stars or sleepers to be used in off-season scouting.

Until those special skills are "in the bag", I scout primarily to replace aging stars or sub-par starters with good young talent, i.e. what I perceive to be positions of need. For example, the Packers start with two old offensive tackles and two more old cornerbacks, so those are positions on which I focus attention. Once my franchise is sufficiently stocked with talent up and down the roster, scouting and drafting become exercises in choosing the right players to replace starters or backups I can't or won't re-sign. It's less about who I need and more about who I want and/or can afford.

(The higher-level scouting special skills make for more awesome-sauce, but they come into play later in the pre-draft process: you should prioritize them as well, but not necessarily place them before general GM skill development. It took me almost exactly three seasons during my current career to acquire all the special scouting skills for my GM - Tom Tedson was fully prepped going into the 2011 off-season.)

Once a season concludes, you're up to the Senior Bowl. The skill your GM has in scouting each type of player determines how many players in each group you can scout. I have my scouting/wants list ready at this point - it includes the player's position, comparison and school. At the Senior Bowl, the most interesting players are guys from smaller schools - you can get multiple prospects from each big school during Pro Days. Once your GM has the 1st Round Intuition skill, you can focus more narrowly on players with production ratings < 90.

Next is the Scouting Combine, where you get the physical dimensions of nearly every player as well as the Physical grades and attributes. Just like the Senior Bowl, your GM's skill level determines how many prospects you can meet, but the quantity scales up: you'll be able to interview more players at each position at the Combine than you were at the Senior Bowl. If you have the Potential Intuition skill, focus particularly on the players you'll want to meet during Pro Days here. By the end of the combine, you should have 66-92% of the information on most prospects, with the higher end being on those most interesting to you...

... with some exceptions. Draft Intuition and 1st Round Intuition don't fill in the blanks on those players until just before Pro Days start, so if you don't scout those players, you'll have to wait a little longer. I've also seen a player or two get missed by that particular special skill, so budget an individual workout or two with those players in mind.

Then it's Pro Day time. If you have Potential Intuition at this point, you can reach 100% scouting for most of a draft class' worthy players during these. Combining a Pro Day workout, a Combine interview, and Potential Intuition is equivalent to an individual workout - you'll know everything there is to know about a prospect. A word of warning about Potential Intuition: anyone you watch during a Pro Day you can't invite to an individual workout - you've already scouted their potential, even if you're missing other details.

Near the end of Pro Days, you'll be able to schedule the individual workouts. With a decent GM who has mastered the special skills, you may run out of worthwhile prospects to call in for workouts. You will already have covered the majority of the prospects through other means.

At this point, even with a draft class for which no guide has been written, you'll be about as prepared as possible and be able to work the draft to your franchise's advantage.

[karatemanchan37]

Re: Ebongreen's advice &amp; observations thread

Here's an hypothesis that explains some interesting facts about the divisions:

Since the AI favors passing over running, I figured that teams who have running based playbooks were going to suffer, while pass heavy playbooks will succeed. That's not a game changer though - it just shows how the mechanics in the game work.

Let's look at two very common divisions: The NFC East and the AFC North. The East has three heavy pass teams in Dallas, Washington and Philadelphia, while the Giants favors a more balanced one. In contrast, the North have two run heavy teams - Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and two balanced teams that also prefer to run the ball - Cleveland and Cincinnati.

Well how is this relevant? Because it really shows why some teams are good and some are not good. The NFC East is one of the toughest divisions to play because all of them literally pass the ball all the time - and again, it's not the players that dictate this - it's the playbook and the coaches. It's the reason why Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb always dominate the passing leaderboards in the first few years.

In contrast, the AFC North has its own share of being a laughing stock. There are teams who made the playoffs in their own division at 8-8, 7-9, even 6-10! Why do they suck so much? Because they ALWAYS run the ball! The game AI sees that in real life all four teams based themselves on the run game, so they translate that into giving Jamal Lewis, Willie Parker, Willis McGhee and Rudi Johnson nearly 30+ carries a game even though the run game is broken because the coaches are stupid enough to realize that and make adjustments.

And it doesn't end there. This is also the same reason why Carolina and the two-back system doesn't work. It's the reason Minnesota, despite having AP, won't win championships quickly. It's the reason why Denver can produce 2,000 yard receiving seasons. It's the reason why Mike Martz can give a starting QB like Alex Smith and Joey Harrington 4,000 passing yards in a season.

So what's the morale? Focus on selecting the right teams to play against can make a difference in your play!

[ebongreen]

Re: Ebongreen's advice &amp; observations thread

Umm, I don't think the evidence for your thesis is as strong as you think - correlation isn't causation. Personally I'd favor the strengths of the coaching staff and personnel of the franchises when it comes to discussing records and divisional matchups. The NFCE should be a three-way fight with the Redskins bringing up the rear until Coughlin, Reid or Phillips leave their positions, while the AFCN will feature the defenses of the Ravens and Steelers until either Cincinnati or Cleveland find better coaching and drafting.

For example, Cleveland frequently acquires Hammermill and goes on to dominate that division in my careers. And Hammy likes to run the ball... that's just not all he does.

[Demonolith]

Re: Ebongreen's advice &amp; observations thread

Are there any instances where you think it's wise to trade up to the first or second pick in the draft in order to draft "that guy"? i.e. a Jack English type HOF player who always gets drafted at the top?

[ebongreen]

Re: Ebongreen's advice &amp; observations thread

Probably depends on the path you're on and your skills as a coach. If you're a brand new coach with a terrible franchise and awful personnel, an awesome QB is probably worth it if you have a good notion that good QB talent is hard-to-find.

On the English path, I can't say that it's ever been worth it to me. The Packers have at least a decent coaching staff to start with, and there's more franchise-capable QBs than you can shake a stick at. Eventually, as your coach(es) improve, you get to "make" your players through special skills and performance ratings, so drafting the best talent is a luxury instead of a necessity.

[Mike3207]

Re: Ebongreen's advice &amp; observations thread

Are there any instances where you think it's wise to trade up to the first or second pick in the draft in order to draft "that guy"? i.e. a Jack English type HOF player who always gets drafted at the top?

Not in the English or Jones path-there's a lot of talent in those drafts. I would do it in the Zazzali or Sweetney paths, as you won't find the same talent, especially out of the 1st round.

[Wheeler Dealer]

Re: On restricted free agency

Let me make sure I understand. There is a week after the Superbowl when you can sign free agents before the CPU teams lose their players whose contracts have expired. CPU teams are not signing FAs during this period.

This loophole could be used to circumvent a bug with RFAs who never come up for bidding.

OK, it's weird to quote myself, but I couldn't figure out how to quote my question and your answers and I thought the questions provided more context.

I have 3 RFAs coming up. How do I know if they will make it to the auction block?

A Woodson, QB 92 who I drafted in the 4th round. No problem.

Z Bowman, CB 81 who I traded for but is coming to the end of his third year and a 3 year contract. He' listed as an RFA in the Preview.

A Serna K 86, signed as UDFA and then negotiated a 3 year deal during his rookie season. Also in the FA Preview as an RFA.

Does the fact they are in the FA Preview mean they will definitely come up for bids. I don't want to go around the system unless I have to but I don't want to replay 3 months if I get to training camp and then one of them never came up for bids.

[ebongreen]

Re: On restricted free agency

All three of those are highly rated enough that they should receive bids.

Watch the FA procession each year and you'll soon develop a sense of what players at which positions get bid on.

[Last_Light]

Re: Ebongreen's advice &amp; observations thread

It's been awhile since I last posted. Been getting back into the game. Currently in my 4th season I believe. Two superbowl appearances, one win under my belt.

There is two positions that never seem to develop for me. CB and TE.
Is this something other people have found too?
I assume it means it would be best for me to pick up these positions in FA rather then the draft?

EDIT

Forgot something. How do you tell what playbook you are currently using? For the life of me I can't remember the original offensive playbook I chose.

Also if possible could you tell me a few run plays in the play creator that have worked well for you? I have LeMarcus Taylor (LT's clone) and I still can't seem to get the ball rolling.

[ebongreen]

Re: Ebongreen's advice &amp; observations thread

Cornerback and tight end definitely develop for me - with the exception that the Press rating never seems to change.

I don't know that there's any way to tell what the original playbook is, short of using my Offensive Formation guide to reverse-engineer the playbook from the plays.

My advice from earlier in the thread: don't use the play creator. Populate your playbook with nearly every play you expect to want before beginning a career.

[ebongreen]

On questions

To avoid turning this thread into a board-within-the-board more than it already is, :o please ask questions in a way that's as (1) specific as possible and (2) applicable to careers beyond just yours. For example, "what are some of your favorite running plays" is a question I can answer much more easily than "can you help me with my running game".

If you want to ask something that's related to a problem that may be just yours, please start a new thread. I'm a regular visitor and if I have something to say, I promise you'll hear from me. Thanks!

[karatemanchan37]

Re: Ebongreen's advice &amp; observations thread

So is it true that the Ozzie Jones and Mike Zazzali draft paths are only 12 years long while the Jack English and Maceo Sweeetney are 15 years right? Or are they all 15 years long?

[Mike3207]

Re: Ebongreen's advice &amp; observations thread

So is it true that the Ozzie Jones and Mike Zazzali draft paths are only 12 years long while the Jack English and Maceo Sweeetney are 15 years right? Or are they all 15 years long?

I believe they are all 15 years long. I think someone once posted that Zazzali and Sweetney were 12 years long, but it was due to a corrupted save. I also believe kickers and punters develop slowly.

I always had a theory that if you maxed out your HC and STC development and special skills you might see a improvement in their development, but I never put it to the test.