NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

[jeebs9]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

Hahaha still watching this play

https://twitter.com/Sports_24x7_/status/1485393626674909190?t=fwFicbRA21r1LgbQW205JQ&s=19

Man to man in that situation.

[Sportsforever]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

We see it time and time again in the playoffs; a defender letting a receiver beat them deep in a key spot where that is the ONE thing that CAN'T happen. I get it...Bucs put a safety on Kupp and bring pressure gambling that they get to Stafford before he can get it off, but you would think keeping everything in front of you would be easier than that.

[Blzer]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

No one will remember it because it was the right decision. Nothing to remember.

It really didn’t.

It was. This was it.

4th & short has been a tried and true method in the NFL, and a team that hasn't shown to stop the offense of the other side isn't about to let them drain clock when down by three scores only to likely score again with less clock overall. I have no reason to believe that the Bucs would score on that drive, but when being stuffed is a seven-point swing and the result that we got was a seven-point swing, you have a better chance of winning with more time. Period.

What happened for the Bucs to get back in the game was stoopid with two o's. Arians can't rely on "They're going to fumble this many times" for them to have the chance that they did. This is the playoffs, and whether it is debated that you have the greatest of all time at quarterback, you believe it. You can't hold anything back. If you punt, you lose. If you get stuffed, you actually know what you have to work with better next time around even though you'll still likely lose. But if you get a first down, your chances regulate much more.

They went for it on 4th & god knows what later without question, and were successful. This was an opportunity I sought then and there, and called out immediately as it happened. It won't be questioned because it was "too early," but with regard to management in the playoff situation you're in, this was a time to take what on paper is actually not a very improbable chance.

This was their chance. Even if they won the game in OT, I'm looking at that in hindsight and saying they should've won in regulation. That didn't happen though, because they lost. This was their chance, and Arians screwed up.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

It was. This was it.

4th & short has been a tried and true method in the NFL, and a team that hasn't shown to stop the offense of the other side isn't about to let them drain clock when down by three scores only to likely score again with less clock overall. I have no reason to believe that the Bucs would score on that drive, but when being stuffed is a seven-point swing and the result that we got was a seven-point swing, you have a better chance of winning with more time. Period.

What happened for the Bucs to get back in the game was stoopid with two o's. Arians can't rely on "They're going to fumble this many times" for them to have the chance that they did. This is the playoffs, and whether it is debated that you have the greatest of all time at quarterback, you believe it. You can't hold anything back. If you punt, you lose. If you get stuffed, you actually know what you have to work with better next time around even though you'll still likely lose. But if you get a first down, your chances regulate much more.

They went for it on 4th & god knows what later without question, and were successful. This was an opportunity I sought then and there, and called out immediately as it happened. It won't be questioned because it was "too early," but with regard to management in the playoff situation you're in, this was a time to take what on paper is actually not a very improbable chance.

This was their chance. Even if they won the game in OT, I'm looking at that in hindsight and saying they should've won in regulation. That didn't happen though, because they lost. This was their chance, and Arians screwed up.

Is this Brandon Staley?


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[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

It was. This was it.

4th & short has been a tried and true method in the NFL, and a team that hasn't shown to stop the offense of the other side isn't about to let them drain clock when down by three scores only to likely score again with less clock overall. I have no reason to believe that the Bucs would score on that drive, but when being stuffed is a seven-point swing and the result that we got was a seven-point swing, you have a better chance of winning with more time. Period.

What happened for the Bucs to get back in the game was stoopid with two o's. Arians can't rely on "They're going to fumble this many times" for them to have the chance that they did. This is the playoffs, and whether it is debated that you have the greatest of all time at quarterback, you believe it. You can't hold anything back. If you punt, you lose. If you get stuffed, you actually know what you have to work with better next time around even though you'll still likely lose. But if you get a first down, your chances regulate much more.

They went for it on 4th & god knows what later without question, and were successful. This was an opportunity I sought then and there, and called out immediately as it happened. It won't be questioned because it was "too early," but with regard to management in the playoff situation you're in, this was a time to take what on paper is actually not a very improbable chance.

This was their chance. Even if they won the game in OT, I'm looking at that in hindsight and saying they should've won in regulation. That didn't happen though, because they lost. This was their chance, and Arians screwed up.

Preciate the write up…but it still didn’t.

There’s a whole bunch of other plays/moments that played factors in how this game went. But to pinpoint this one as THE reason they lost the game? Yeah I can’t get with that.

[reyes the roof]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

AB seems to be happy with this afternoon’s game

https://twitter.com/AB84/status/1485412838529196033

[Majingir]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

Yes, maybe too soon, but interesting question I saw.

Which would you bet on? Brady playing his last NFL game or Rodgers playing his last game as a Packer?

[reyes the roof]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

I think they’ll both be back but I’m more confident about Rodgers returning in Green Bay

[kehlis]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

It was. This was it.

4th & short has been a tried and true method in the NFL, and a team that hasn't shown to stop the offense of the other side isn't about to let them drain clock when down by three scores only to likely score again with less clock overall. I have no reason to believe that the Bucs would score on that drive, but when being stuffed is a seven-point swing and the result that we got was a seven-point swing, you have a better chance of winning with more time. Period.

What happened for the Bucs to get back in the game was stoopid with two o's. Arians can't rely on "They're going to fumble this many times" for them to have the chance that they did. This is the playoffs, and whether it is debated that you have the greatest of all time at quarterback, you believe it. You can't hold anything back. If you punt, you lose. If you get stuffed, you actually know what you have to work with better next time around even though you'll still likely lose. But if you get a first down, your chances regulate much more.

They went for it on 4th & god knows what later without question, and were successful. This was an opportunity I sought then and there, and called out immediately as it happened. It won't be questioned because it was "too early," but with regard to management in the playoff situation you're in, this was a time to take what on paper is actually not a very improbable chance.

This was their chance. Even if they won the game in OT, I'm looking at that in hindsight and saying they should've won in regulation. That didn't happen though, because they lost. This was their chance, and Arians screwed up.

I'm not going to add much since you've already decided you're right but there is no realistic way you can say that going for it and getting stuffed to give them more time would have provided the path to victory. (With almost an entire half to go at that point.)

This is a parody of something right?

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

I'm not going to add much since you've already decided you're right but there is no realistic way you can say that going for it and getting stuffed to give them more time would have provided the path to victory.

This is a parody of something right?

I’m telling you, it’s Brandon Staley.

He would be the only one defending going for it on fourth down that deep in his own territory.


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[ggsimmonds]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

My man Blzer is too deep into the "go for it on 4th down" mindset.

[Blzer]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

I'm not going to add much since you've already decided you're right but there is no realistic way you can say that going for it and getting stuffed to give them more time would have provided the path to victory. (With almost an entire half to go at that point.)

This is a parody of something right?

No, no it's not.

Even with Brady as your quarterback, being down by three scores with 25 minutes to play and no possession of the ball is not a recipe for victory. The point is win probability. If you punt or get stuffed, your probability of winning barely changes (you can argue whether it increases or decreases, but it barely changes because at that point a win probability of 1% versus 0.8% means absolutely nothing, not that those are the actual numbers but that is the idea).

Remember, they were destined to lose at this point. Punting was succumbing to defeat. It took all of the wrongs in the world by the Rams to get back into this game. You don't bet on the odds of like three fumbles or whatever ridiculous thing they did for you to get back into this game.

The problem is the narrative of this game is going to be that a safety couldn't cover who nobody could cover all year, your triple-crown receiver Kupp. There was a missed opportunity to work your way back in earlier, and this was it.

And it's not like I'm praying on the idea that they'd be stuffed. The Bucs, like most teams, were more successful going for it on 4th down this year than they weren't. They just showed it going for it on 4th & forever and then 4th & short in this game when they knew that a pass and rush were going to occur, respectively. When your playbook opens on 4th & 3 to do either and you have the whole field in your view, there was a large chance of success and a much improved winning percentage.

I'm not being any more stubborn about this being a bad decision than anybody else is about it being a good decision. If this was the very beginning of the half or in the first half, I'd agree. But time was against them here, even early-ish in the 3rd quarter.

[kehlis]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

Remember, they were destined to lose at this point. Punting was succumbing to defeat.

I guess this is where we disagree rather than all of that other nonsense.

In no way is any team destined to lose, down 17 points with almost an entire half to go. (Let alone Tom Brady - as we literally saw with our own eyes). You are projecting big time there (and based on the way the game went, very off base).

Punting wasn't succumbing to defeat. It was the only call there. Even the most extreme analytics would disagree with you on this one.

[Blzer]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

I guess this is where we disagree rather than all of that other nonsense.

In no way is any team destined to lose, down 17 points with almost an entire half to go. (Let alone Tom Brady - as we literally saw with our own eyes). You are projecting big time there (and based on the way the game went, very off base).

Punting wasn't succumbing to defeat. It was the only call there. Even the most extreme analytics would disagree with you on this one.

Maybe, maybe not. That game went more improbably than the chance to go back though, I'll say that much. I'll also mention that I didn't know Gay was a bit hampered with his leg, which could factor into deep field goals not being a thing.

I definitely want to be able to track somehow other games where teams were historically down by 17 with 25 minutes to go and not having possession of the ball, and winning the game. Maybe even compare it to games where they do have the ball at that time. I don't know how to track such a thing though.

My mindset there is simple:





Then again, I sit on the sideline that is my couch. I'm not paid to make those decisions. I only know one that for sure didn't work, but this was by no means a hindsight call.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: NFC Playoffs - Divisional Round Discussion Thread

They were on their own 12 man. Lets say they go for it. If they convert it they maintain possession of the ball with a chance to continue a drive. But they go for it and fail, LA gets the ball in the redzone and almost guaranteed another score. This isn't a debate.

You had an idea enter your mind and you are running with it. Before debating the idea you should have examined it critically. Look at the math and analytics. They wouldn't be on your side. Its cool, happens to all of us. We throw out an idea without examining it critically and its not well received. Happened to me the other day with my post about covid testing.

Spoiler

I don't know the exact math and numbers, but its obvious the math wouldn't support you here.
Its 4th and 3. So first we have to look at the odds to gain 3 yards.
Worth pointing out that at this point I think Brady was still completing less than half of his passes.

The first branch -- if they fail to get the 3 yards and LA gets the ball. What are their odds to add another score when they start their drive inside the redzone.

The second branch -- if they convert the 4th down. They are nowhere close to being in a position to score. Lets say they convert with a few yards to spare. What are the odds of scoring when starting a drive from your own 20 yard line.

Reframe it into a money scenario. I'm going to flip a coin. Guess wrong and there is a 90% chance you lose $100. But if you guess right, you get a 20% chance to win $100 dollars.
You think that is a good gamble?

It was far too early for this kind of big all-in gamble. At that point in the game you don't think about making up the entire 17 point deficit. There is still enough time where you should be thinking about winning zero-sum outcomes. TB averaged 11.4 drives per game this past season. So even if we take the more favorable stance for you argument that they only had 4 drives remaining, it was only a 3 possession game. They were not in a must score situation.