Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

[55]

I really don't get it. Rookie this, rookie that. Rookie, rookie, rookie.

The NBA and especially the NFL drafts are HUGE these days. Even just 20 years ago there wasn't nearly as much of a spectacle made out of these things and rightfully so. The funny thing is, people freak out over all these draft picks who have never done anything and label them as the next big thing. Each and every year there is another point guard or another quarterback that is supposed to be the next big thing in their respective sport and a LOT more often than not they don't pan out.

In my opinion, a key veteran free agent is MUCH more valuable to a team than a rookie in terms of making the team better. When was the last time a rookie LED his team to a championship?

Out of the 60 players taken in the NBA draft every year how many of them actually become Hall Of Fame caliber superstars? One? Two? I know there have been some years that were loaded like 1984 and 2003 but for every year like that there are several drafts like 1988 and 2000 which lacked any upper echelon talent at all.

The NFL is even worse. There are a whopping 255 players taken in the modern day NFL draft and there have been several drafts over the last decade that netted absolutely no top players. The 1992 NFL draft is a shining example. Hell, even as recently as 2002 we had a miserable draft where three of the top four players were complete and absolute busts in every way.

Let's take a look at the quarterback position, since it is a common position drafted first overall and arguably the most important position in football. This is a list of every first round quarterback taken in the last 20 drafts:

1990
1st overall: Jeff George - Solid player for more than a decade, but not a Hall Of Famer.
7th overall: Andre Ware - Complete and total bust.

1991
16th overall: Dan McGwire - Complete and total bust.
24th overall: Todd Marinovich - Complete and total bust.

1992
6th overall: David Klingler - Complete and total bust.
25th overall: Tommy Maddox - Had 2 decent seasons a decade after being drafted.
29th overall: Dave Brown - Had 3 mediocre seasons.

1993
1st overall: Drew Bledsoe - Solid player for more than a decade, but not a Hall Of Famer.
2nd overall: Rick Mirer - Complete and total bust.

1994
3rd overall: Heath Shuler - Complete and total bust.
6th overall: Trent Dilfer - Mediocre player at best.

1995
3rd overall: Steve McNair - Very good player for more than a decade, but not a Hall Of Famer.
6th overall: Kerry Collins - Above average player for more than a decade, but not a Hall Of Famer.

1996
No quarterbacks drafted in the first round.

1997
27th overall: Jim Druckenmiller - Complete and total bust.

1998
1st overall: Peyton Manning - One of the best players of all time, a sure fire Hall Of Famer.
2nd overall: Ryan Leaf - Complete and total bust.

1999
1st overall: Tim Couch - Complete and total bust.
2nd overall: Donovan McNabb - Very good player for more than a decade with Hall Of Fame potential.
3rd overall: Akili Smith - Complete and total bust.
11th overall: Daunte Culpepper - Very good for a few years and then disappeared.
12th overall: Cade McNown - Complete and total bust.

2000
18th overall: Chad Pennington - Solid player but never lived up to his potential.

2001
1st overall: Michael Vick - Talented guy, but turned out to be a wasted pick.

2002
1st overall: David Carr - Complete and total bust.
3rd overall: Joey Harrington - Complete and total bust.
32nd overall: Patrick Ramsey - Had 3 mediocre seasons and disappeared.

2003
1st overall: Carson Palmer - Very good player with several years left.
7th overall: Byron Leftwich - Had 3 mediocre seasons and disappeared.
19th overall: Kyle Boller - Mediocre player at best.
22nd overall: Rex Grossman - Other than one decent season he has been a bust.

2004
1st overall: Eli Manning - Solid player, but has not lived up to being the #1 overall pick.
4th overall: Philip Rivers - Great player who keeps getting better.
11th overall: Ben Roethlisberger - Very good player.
22nd overall: J.P. Losman - Mediocre player that can be called a bust.

2005
1st overall: Alex Smith - The jury is still out, but still wasn't worthy of the #1 overall pick.
24th overall: Aaron Rodgers - Great player who keeps getting better.
25th overall: Jason Campbell - Solid player but no superstar.

2006
3rd overall: Vince Young - Mediocre player at best.
10th overall: Matt Leinart - A bust so far, but has a chance to turn it around this year.
11th overall: Jay Cutler - Very good player.

2007
1st overall: JaMarcus Russell - Complete and total bust.
22nd overall: Brady Quinn - Complete and total bust.

I'll stop there because I don't think it's very fair to judge a player until they have played for three seasons, but I made my point.

For every all-time great like Peyton Manning there are 15 complete and total busts and another 15 or so mediocre players drafted. So, why do rookies get so much love?

[HotSauce2k3]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

You kinda answered your own question. Everyone wants to someone to be the next big thing. The next Jordan, the next whatever.

[55]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

You kinda answered your own question. Everyone wants to someone to be the next big thing. The next Jordan, the next whatever.

I am of the opinion that there is no such thing as the next Jordan though. Only Jordan can ever be Jordan.

[The GIGGAS]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

With rookies, you're excited because you could have hit a jackpot. With veterans, you know what you're getting.

I know I personally believe in building through the draft, then plugging holes with talented low price veterans (at least in football). That's why the draft is so exciting. You're looking at the future of the league. It's on you if you only look at the first round, especially in football. The NFL Draft is a total crapshoot.

[Cebby]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

The NFL Draft is huge because it's the most important offseason event for by far the most popular sport and very little is predetermined.

The NBA Draft is much less important because the top prospects are almost always known and almost always progress as expected. The lottery is the more important even with the NBA. 90% of busts in the NBA are based on either injuries or other non-basketball related events (drugs, etc) or drafting a clearly inferior player based on "potential" or, the stupidest thing in basketball, need. Unless you completely screw something up, the NBA Draft is a non-event and the late pick super stars generally don't develop for a few years.

In my opinion, a key veteran free agent is MUCH more valuable to a team than a rookie in terms of making the team better. When was the last time a rookie LED his team to a championship?

When was the last time a key veteran free agent led a team to the chip in the first year?

In basketball, unless you're the Lakers in the 1980s or LOL@Detroit in 2003, you have a top 3 pick (where the vast majority of dominant players are acquired) for a reason. In football top rookies can be acquired much later, but the NFL is weird in the sense that, for some odd reason, only quarterbacks can lead their team to the championship and most rookie QBs don't start.

As with rookies, the majority of free agents don't produce much. The NBA has Shaq, Nash, Lebron, and Bosh, and the NFL has a number of players given the hard cap, but aside from Lebron and Bosh most don't win in their first year (and the Heat winning hasn't even happened yet).

Having the cap space available to sign Shaq, Lebron, Brees, Haynesworth, or Deion is just as lucky/rare as getting the #1 pick when Lebron, Manning, or Shaq are in the draft.

[youvalss]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

I'm not into all this rookie fuss. I want them to play 2-3 seasons before making them "amazing". I don't like all this culture of a kid who's never done anything in his life and already considered the next Jesus.

But I guess that's how the world moves forward, the world belongs to those who are young.

[Gotmadskillzson]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

SMH @ all those former Bears QB's over the years.......

We had Mirer, Grossman, McKnown, and now we have Cutler.......

[BooShay]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

Quinn a bust? Hardly, guy played for Cleveland last year. A broom could have played WR for them

[Speedy]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

I'm disappointed in you, Limb...not even one mention of Strasburg and the ridiculous amount of exposure he receives.

[SPTO]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

Actually limb a case can be made for Drew Bledsoe as a HOF caliber QB. So I wouldn't exactly right him off. The thing is having a decent career even as a 1st round QB is quite good IMO. The unreal 1983 draft class has put way too much emphasis on drafting a truly great QB for years and years.

You can also make the case that the NFL draft has been a spectacle to some degree since '83 as well and it's only in the last 10 years that the other sports have caught up in terms of the hype machine. (well except baseball but that's a different kettle of fish) To answer your question though I think people put a lot of emphasis on rookies because they represent new hope and a chance at one's favorite team to have a building block for the future, a future that would be fruitful and bring about championships or at least contending teams.

[55]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

I'm disappointed in you, Limb...not even one mention of Strasburg and the ridiculous amount of exposure he receives.

I think baseball is a completely different animal when it comes to the MLB draft and the way rookies are viewed. The MLB draft is an afterthought to anyone who isn't a major fan of the game and most times when a player gets drafted it takes them a few years to make it to the majors. Sure, Strasburg is getting a hell of a lot of press, but the difference between him and John Wall or Sam Bradford is that Strasburg already pitched for a year and a half in professional baseball (remember, the minor leagues are still pro baseball) and was extremely dominant whereas Wall has never scored a single point in professional basketball and Bradford has never thrown a touchdown pass in professional football.

Strasburg has earned his praise, while all Wall and Bradford have earned thus far are ridiculously overpriced contracts.

[55]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

Actually limb a case can be made for Drew Bledsoe as a HOF caliber QB.

No, there can't.

A 21st century quarterback with a 77.1 career QB rating and zero All-Pro teams under his belt is not a Hall Of Fame caliber career. He will never come close to sniffing Canton and rightfully so.

[Bellsprout]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

Because we all get bored with talking about the same old veterans all the time. We've all talked about how great Peyton Manning is. We've talked about it to death and we've heard about it to death. Rookies are new. Rookies are exciting. And most of all, they aren't the same damn people we've talked about for the last decade.

[Cebby]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

I'm disappointed in you, Limb...not even one mention of Strasburg and the ridiculous amount of exposure he receives.

What exactly is the precedent for players putting up Strasburg's numbers as a starting pitching rookie and especially a true rookie who didn't spend years in the minors?

Aside from the 1800s, I'm guessing there aren't many.

Strasburg has earned his praise, while all Wall and Bradford have earned thus far are ridiculously overpriced contracts.

Did you seriously just call a rookie NBA contract "ridiculously overpriced"?

Every rookie signs at about half his value if even that.

[55]

Re: Why is everyone SO fascinated with rookies all the time?

Did you seriously just call a rookie NBA contract "ridiculously overpriced"?

Every rookie signs at about half his value if even that.

And yet he is still making a lot more than Strasburg when he doesn't deserve to be. That's my point.