MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

[MR_ATL]

This has been bothering me for a while and enough to the point where i needed to see if anyone else had noticed. the player regression for some players has been really annoying. In my franchise mode, some really good players have regressed to levels that are explainable. Of course there are always premature retirements and drastic regression happens in real life however its "randomness" in this game seems predictable to me.I think the logic is screwed up, my assumption is that the regression logic is based entirely on or heavily influenced by MLB service. Im in the middle of the 2024 season and players like Harper, Trout, Goldschmidt, Stanton etc. (just to name a few) have all seen drastic declines and it seems to be that way almost every year with a lot of players across the board that have been in the MLB for some time. My theory is; a player who's 34 and has 5 years MLB service vs a 34 yr old with 10 years MLB service the 10 year vet will regress worse no matter the stats or pedigree of that player. In my current franchise mode, I know if I hadnt edit harper or trout to be where they are now (high 80s overall) theyd surely be in the mid to low 70s at the age 32. Now, I dont want it to be unrealistic but if a player is playing like a hall of famer i dont want some arbitrary value like MLB service dictating the intensity of regression especially if the performance of the player is solid if not above league avg. and that player has been healthy.

[consecutive27]

Quote: Originally Posted by MR_ATL

This has been bothering me for a while and enough to the point where i needed to see if anyone else had noticed. the player regression for some players has been really annoying. In my franchise mode, some really good players have regressed to levels that are explainable. Of course there are always premature retirements and drastic regression happens in real life however its "randomness" in this game seems predictable to me.I think the logic is screwed up, my assumption is that the regression logic is based entirely on or heavily influenced by MLB service. Im in the middle of the 2024 season and players like Harper, Trout, Goldschmidt, Stanton etc. (just to name a few) have all seen drastic declines and it seems to be that way almost every year with a lot of players across the board that have been in the MLB for some time. My theory is; a player who's 34 and has 5 years MLB service vs a 34 yr old with 10 years MLB service the 10 year vet will regress worse no matter the stats or pedigree of that player. In my current franchise mode, I know if I hadnt edit harper or trout to be where they are now (high 80s overall) theyd surely be in the mid to low 70s at the age 32. Now, I dont want it to be unrealistic but if a player is playing like a hall of famer i dont want some arbitrary value like MLB service dictating the intensity of regression especially if the performance of the player is solid if not above league avg. and that player has been healthy.

This is an interesting theory, and it has crossed my mind too. In my previous season Gerrit Cole lost about three points from his overall, even though he was only 29 or 30 I think, and he had a pretty decent season. He probably only had about 6 years of service time too. Sensing that something was up with this, I traded him in the offseason. Sure enough, his drop continued the following season down several more points. It seemed to be unrelated to stats. I have an age 34 McCutchen and he is still rated in the 90's, but he has dropped from a 96 or 97 to a 91. I don't think that is unreasonable. McCutchen is probably right around 10 years service time. I just finished the 2021 season. Cole's decline has been the only alarming one I have seen this far, but I have not been paying very close attention to it. I just played the Dodgers and 33-34 year old Kershaw is still in the mid to high nineties. I will see if I can find some examples of the decline you are talking about and compare their ages and service time.

[KBLover]

Quote: Originally Posted by MR_ATL

I think the logic is screwed up, my assumption is that the regression logic is based entirely on or heavily influenced by MLB service.

I believe that was noticed in MLB14 or 15 (or both) as well, so if it's true here, too, I wouldn't be surprised.


My carryover just started year 8 (April 2022, started in MLB14). Here's how the significant/possibly-used-at-MLB 30-somethings on my squad are doing:

MR Hessman - 36, 2 yrs service, 81/B (slightly rising)

CF Eric Young, Jr. - 36, 10 yrs service, 67/C (slight dropping, still has some defense and speed)

1B Chris Davis - 35, 12 yrs service, 85/A (slightly dropping, has mostly lost his speed and defense, the bat is still insane especially vs RHP)

RP Ken DiMaggio - 35, 7 yrs service, 85/B (slightly dropping, losing HR/9 quickly)

RP Boone Hall - 33, rookie, 77/C (no change)

C Andrew Susac - 32, 2 yrs service, 76/C (no change)

SS Chris Taylor - 31, 7 yrs service, 89/B (no change)

LF Christian Yelich - 30, 8 yrs service, 83/A (slightly dropping...Yelich never got anywhere near "A", so this wasn't a drop-of-a-cliff situation)


Harper isn't 30 yet (29) but has 9 years service. He's at 91/A. He was having some drops when I carried over, but they reverted to gains, possibly due to the performance impacts this year.


The service impact seems like it's still there. Hall and Hessman are holding on and they have little service (almost none in Hall's case). Trout is at 79, so he has suffered from this sort of thing from before the carryover (not sure why Davis was spared). I will edit him up and see how it goes. Maybe with better ratings, his performance will pick back up, which should help this year. He was doing horribly even in the earlier years.

[bigsteve15]

Any updates on this? Last time I read the OP was running his test on 2015 and had yet to do it for 2016.

[thedudedominick]

So I created 7 position players all with mid 90s potential and put them on the same team. I am now 7 years in and two of those players are losing attributes at the age of 25. It's ridiculous.

I have a theory regression is based on how quickly guys hit their peak potential. Once they hit that I think the game turns off their progression and soon they start to regress. It's only a theory as the two that have started to drop off are the ones that got the the high 90s overall first.

Of course it could also just be completely random, as looking in free agency in year 2023 Chris Sale is still a 95 overall at 35 years old while Aroldis Chapman is down to a 68 at 36 years old. Starlin Castro is 83 overall at 34, Altuve is 67 overall at 33. Heyward is a 93 at 34. Correa dropped from 99 to 90 at 29.

Couple years later I noticed Syndergaard at the bottom of free agency. A 55 overall at 34.

[KBLover]

Quote: Originally Posted by thedudedominick

I have a theory regression is based on how quickly guys hit their peak potential. Once they hit that I think the game turns off their progression and soon they start to regress. It's only a theory as the two that have started to drop off are the ones that got the the high 90s overall first. Of course it could also just be completely random, as looking in free agency in year 2023 Chris Sale is still a 95 overall at 35 years old while Aroldis Chapman is down to a 68 at 36 years old. Starlin Castro is 83 overall at 34, Altuve is 67 overall at 33. Heyward is a 93 at 34. Correa dropped from 99 to 90 at 29.

I'm more inclined to believe it's randomness/service time. Sano is 89/B (93 with morale) and still gaining points in my MLB16 franchise. So he's hit his peak.

Chris Davis in my carryover still holding to his high contact and power vs RHP. He's 35.

Bastardo retired while at his peak in the 90's. He was in his mid-30's when he retired last offseason in that franchise.

Damian Boeve has been 99/A in my carryover for years now and he still gained points. He just now got enough service time to be in his last arbitration year.

Stanton is still slugging for the Yankees. His ratings have barely moved.

Meanwhile, Trout was suffering a bit, Kershaw is sliding as well.

So players can defy the peak/service time, at least to a degree, and performance progression should impact things now. There's probably a significant random component in there as well.