Analysis of "Player Potential"

[Synchromesh]

I have a bit of free time on my hands so I am going to begin simming through seasons to get a better idea how a player's "potential" rating affects their overall development.

Some things I am planning on looking at / will continue to look at on my second SIM through 15 seasons are:

- Whether or not player position alters the affects of potential (Example: Does a potential rating of 65 affect both PG and C the same?

- How age affects potential, from my first SIM (see below) it appears that an older player with higher potential will cap out at a lower overall rating than a younger player with less potential.

- How potential affects contract offers in free agency.


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Here's a summary of what I did to arrive at the chart below:

- Created a custom draft class.
- Created 9 players with an overall rating of 60.
- Each of the 9 players were assigned a potential rating (25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, 85, 95, 100)
- Simulated 15 seasons recording each player's overall rating at the beginning of each year.

The collected data can be seen by clicking the link below:

http://i51.tinypic.com/30n9a3r.jpg

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*One of the mistakes I made in my first SIM was that I did not set all players to the same age.

*I also did not control all 30 teams so as you can see some players wound up out of the league before 15 years had passed (which is realistic but ultimately threw a kink in my SIM run as I ended with an incomplete data set).

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If there are any other things that anyone wants me to look at while I SIM let me know.

Ultimately I'm leaning towards re-assigning every player's potential rating so that we can get realistic player development and contract offers in offline Association.

[youALREADYknow]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

If you could just create these players all at the same age, then it would be great information for the entire community. I'll keep my eye on this thread for your next sim results. Thanks for sharing!

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Will do.

I might actually get started on this today, I'm just trying to figure out how to best SIM through this.

I'm fairly certain that position and potential don't have any correlation, but there's a part of me that wants to double-check and see if that's the case...

[youALREADYknow]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Will do.

I might actually get started on this today, I'm just trying to figure out how to best SIM through this.

I'm fairly certain that position and potential don't have any correlation, but there's a part of me that wants to double-check and see if that's the case...

As long as you have multiple people at the same position each year then the data can be evaluated to see whether position really matters.

Also a few other questions that come to mind:

1. Are you keeping height/weight the same for players at the same position?
2. Are specific ratings the same or different between players? For example, I'd imagine that a scoring SG might last longer and get more ratings bumps through their career than a defensive SG.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Hmm good points / questions... This is going to take a little longer than I thought.

[bedwardsroy19]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Hmm good points / questions... This is going to take a little longer than I thought.

To truly figure out what they are thinking, it will take some serious time...

But if you could do it I know roster makers would be very very appreciative!

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

To truly figure out what they are thinking, it will take some serious time...

But if you could do it I know roster makers would be very very appreciative!

Yeah I'm still going to give it a shot, I just needed some time to pause and think. So far I'm through 5 years this time around, haven't taken a time to look at the data and see where the trendlines are going but one interesting thing I noticed was that when I changed my player's height from 5'3'' to 6'5'' his overall rating took a jump of 1 point (and while I have to double check this I don't believe any of his attribute or ability values changed!)

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

New spreadsheet, will upload it either tonight or early tomorrow.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

All right guys here you go!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=0

I'll clean up the spreadsheet, and explain what I exactly I did (should be pretty self-explanatory once you look at the spreadsheet) tomorrow.

You can download the above spreadsheet as an excel file by clicking the link and going to: "FILE > DOWNLOAD AS > EXCEL".

edit: I feel like I'm making less and less sense (need some sleep) but I cloned the same player 15 times changing his weight, height, and potential accordingly I just dropped in fake names for spreadsheet purposes.

[youALREADYknow]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

All right guys here you go!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=0

I'll clean up the spreadsheet, and explain what I exactly I did (should be pretty self-explanatory once you look at the spreadsheet) tomorrow.

You can download the above spreadsheet as an excel file by clicking the link and going to: "FILE > DOWNLOAD AS > EXCEL".

edit: I feel like I'm making less and less sense (need some sleep) but I cloned the same player 15 times changing his weight, height, and potential accordingly I just dropped in fake names for spreadsheet purposes.

Great work so far and thanks for the Google Docs version. How long did this take?

[Zen_Master07]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

looks like potential is tied into a players longevity...interesting, makes sense

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Great work so far and thanks for the Google Docs version. How long did this take?

A couple of hours. I can go a bit quicker now that I know what I'm doing, I'm going to sim one more time while changing weight and height just to gather more data on how they affect overall progression but once I knock those 2 variables out of the equation then relatively speaking I can fly through the rest of the playtypes.

*With height I'm pretty sure that given the same potential and weight a taller player will progress more rapidly. Furthermore the higher a player's potential the larger the discrepancy in progression between players of different heights.

Potential 25:
5'3'': 65*
6'5": 65
7'6'': 67

Potential 62:
5'3'': 65
6'5": 67
7'6'': 67

Potential 99:
5'3'': 81
6'5": 85
7'6'': 87

*Numbers represent (average) peak overall rating.

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*Note:

[ 5'3'', 145lbs ] = Minimum Height / Weight Values you can use when creating a player
[ 6'5'' , 248 lbs ] = Median Height / Weight Values you can use when creating a player
[ 7'6'' , 350 lbs ] = Maximum Height / Weight values you can use when creating a player

[youALREADYknow]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I'm grateful for anything that you can do, but if you could narrow the range from 25/62/99 to something like 70/80/90 then I think that would give a lot more insight into the way potential works for most of the league. I'm pretty sure most players fall somewhere between 62 and 99.

[_-King-_]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Very interesting. Looking forward to more.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

In the next roster I'm setting up I set every attribute to "70" and all abilities to "poor". It gave the player an overall rating of 61.

Next I am going to divide the 15 players on the roster into 3 groups and make each group 1 playstyle.

I'm planning on simming 20 seasons and trying to see if / how playstyle affects individual attribute / ability increases.

I am also going to assign players in each group potential in the following manner:

55
65
75
85
95

So if all goes well this will kill two birds with one stone.

I'm still debating what to do with height and weight but I'm likely going to keep every player the same height (6'5'') and weight (248 lbs)...

3 playstyles I am likely going to pick:

1. Scoring
2. Defensive
3. Athletic