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Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

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Old 02-21-2011, 11:47 PM   #49
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Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

I'd love to help, but you haven't asked a clear question yet. :-, It might also be something better asked via PM.

Remember: no blitz works every time against every play. Blitzing shotgun passes is generally less likely to succeed than blitzing a QB under center. A few blitzes work almost every time against certain plays, but it depends on the other team's playbook. "Strong-side" blitzes tend to work better than "weak-side", but if the other team calls a play with a back protecting towards the RT, your strong-side exploit is likely to fail. (Also, IMO the play editor/creator is overrated, but that's a topic for another day.)

The AI in this game has some smarts - not as much as a human, but it will call plays to foil you. If you're too predictable, it will exploit that - and better QBs with stronger playbooks will exploit it more.

What I've outlined here works for me. Don't learn what I've written, learn from what I've written - and make it your own. If you learn more and better, report back!
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Old 02-22-2011, 06:35 PM   #50
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Re: On restricted free agency

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebongreen
This workaround is subject to catastrophic cheeze - you could do this with your entire roster every year and never sign anyone to a long-term deal. It's a huge and game-breaking exploit if you abuse it. If that's how you roll, I don't want to hear about it, okay?
Ok, I have some thoughts on this cheese factory too. I have now used it once for a few of my players I refused to resign during the season...

This exploit, albeit a fun trick to play on your starting QB or hotshot WR at the end of his first contract, has some (what I would call) devastating effects on the playability of the game, and I wanted to share this for our consideration.

The obvious expoit, dumping zero year roster players into the free agent pool, then picking them back up right away, does maintain their playbook knowledge, but it sure does affect the cap. Matt Hasselbeck, who wanted a new 3 year deal worth around $26M with incentives, "came back" to the Seahawks for a one year deal worth $900K. Yes, his playbook knowledge was perfectly intact, and he resumed his starting job. The "generous" home team discount he gave sure saved his owner some dough, but I began noticing, after repeating this little exploit on 5 other 85 POT and above players, mostly younger guys, that my roster total stayed, naturally, quite full. Instead of losing guys to free agency, opening up a half dozen or so roster spots, the roster total stayed at 53.

Her lies the problem: Keeping good talent on your team, especially those players with a solid upside who have yet to reach their potential, is an attractive, and perfectly reasonable, thing for any HC player to want to do. Now, this this exploit brought to light (and yes, I know it's my fault for doing this!) the sudden lack of roster room causes much of the rest of the gameflow to get mucked up.

Even though I can now afford to sign between 1 and 3 of the top free agents per year, to compensate, I'd have to release or trade away the talent I was protecting with this exploit to begin with. The time invested in training and playing these guys is lost, making this exploit work against you in that regard.

Further, the draft is negatively affected as well. It's now far more attractive to trade away your first and second round picks for future draft consideration, since top rookie players likely won't match up to players already on the roster for more than one year. Talent is great, especially guys who start at an 85 OVR or above, but I've found that players with 1 or 2 years in their high 70's in OVR with enough POT headroom can not only be bargains, but play as well as better rookies due to playbook knowledge.

When you trade away draft picks for future consideration, you never receive a good enough deal to make it an attractive offer. I've found that trading away a 1st round pick will not yield a 1st round pick the following year. For example, other teams bundle 2nd or 3rd and 4th round picks together for your 1st round pick right now. This may not always be the case, but AI coaches are pretty stingy when you offer to trade down.

This loss of 1st and 2nd round picks (should you trade them away) causes another problem: Since 3rd round and below picks propose shorter contract lengths, you'll be back in the high roster turnover carousel earlier than expected.

Bottom line: unless you're a mad scientist and can figure out a way to maintain healthy roster turnover using this exploit, the risks seem to outweigh the benefits. Sure, it might be fun to lock up a future hall-of-famer for longer than reality dictates, but hanging on to a bunch of cap money, just to horde it, ultimately makes no sense.
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Old 02-22-2011, 07:14 PM   #51
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Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

Not trying to threadjack, but…

I have an observation regarding pass location tendencies for AI offenses. I’ve noticed over the several games that TE’s pass catching numbers are typically higher than you’d expect. This dovetails with your comment regarding blitzes and how effective TE’s seem to be.

After looking further, I’ve found that AI offenses tend to throw the ball to the hashmarks. Whether it’s WR’s or TE’s on the receiving end, those hashmarks seem magnetic. Crossing routes, posts, curls, hitches, or seams, it doesn’t matter. The hashmarks appear to be safe throws to make, and effective at gaining yards.

The difficulty defending these 5-8 yard routes is that, for whatever reason, voids appear in the defense at these spots. It’s as if the gameplay logic predetermines that OLB’s will drift out of the center of the field to cover the flats in zones, or get flat footed in man coverage, allowing a receiver to sit down at the hashmarks. Again, this isn’t always the case, but even wideouts crossing the field will often see no resistance to these routes. The ball is delivered, and the yards gained.

I’ve come up with a possible fix. It involves oscillating DE’s and OLB’s into these areas to trick the AI into thinking that there is nothing to throw to in the center of the field. You can run this out of a 4-3 just fine, but it works best in the more rare 4-2-5 alignment, due to speed.

Using play creator, set your DE’s and DT’s close together (reduce the spacing). This has the advantage of guarding against potential run plays up the middle getting to the next level too quickly. Set your OLB’s at their normal depth, but also close together, squeezing you MLB if you will… Drop the DE’s into short zones, and set you OLB’s to spy the QB. You can designate your MLB to go man coverage on a WR3 or WR4 if you want, just keep him active. The resulting play action causes the center of the field to fill with a “line” of coverage a few yards deep in the center of the field.

You can have your DB’s in man or zone, just make sure you bring your SS up a couple of yards for run support.

The whole idea of this is to only rush 2 players, your DT’s. You nullify the effect of 2 OL, as they just stand there doing nothing. You create an umbrella coverage that catches anything underneath by stopping the QB from throwing the ball there. I’ve noticed that when the QB has to check down, he takes more time, and is prone to getting sacked or throwing deep. So long as you’ve kept your FS and CB’s from getting burned deep, you’re ok.
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Old 02-22-2011, 07:26 PM   #52
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Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

Ebongreen , did you ever discuss how to beat the Giants and Eagles combo coverage plays?
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:11 PM   #53
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On passer AI quirks

You may be on to something, goalieump. One of the reasons why Tampa-2 style defenses are effective in this game is the OLBs hugging the hashes. I would say that it makes sense to me that hashes are target zones, specifically because of the way routes are run and zones are defined - that's where "seams" are in three-across-underneath zones, and where receivers many times end up as they run routes.

Another issue with coverage voids is that they appear at different depths when you play base defense vs. when you play nickel or dime. I've played against offenses which rip apart seven- or eight-man zone defenses in third-and-long if I play nickel/dime zones; those same plays result in incompletions or interceptions if I play base 3-4 or 4-3 zones instead. Go figure.

I'll add a couple of pet theories that have been puttering around in my head for some time - I've never collected evidence on them, but they're more than strong hunches.

The AI generally throws to TEs and slot receivers over split ends and flankers - on that I think we can all agree.

My hunches are:
  1. the AI tends to throw "across" the field - if your offense is on the left hash, your right-hand receiver(s) will be favored, and vice versa;
  2. the AI prefers the split end over the flanker, i.e. has a left bias towards the defense's #2 corner;
  3. the AI passer "reads" are highly programmatic and almost invariable on most plays. Second, third and fourth reads don't work the way you think they should, and sometimes they don't work at all.

Statistically, #2 is pretty easy to verify. My second receiver on the depth chart regularly exceeds my #1 in targets catches and yards, so much so that I tend to rotate those receivers during games to get my #1 his catches.

#1 & #3 are related to an extent. On #3, I think of play-action passes and even some straight dropbacks where the read is obvious to me, but the AI manages to %$#@ it up - there are plays that ought to work, but I rarely call because they have such a history of bad execution for me. On #1, which is my weakest theory, it's just a tendency I notice - the QB tends to pass to the #1 (right-hand) receiver more often when I'm on the left hash, even if the "read" pattern might say otherwise.
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:22 PM   #54
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Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrs844224
Ebongreen , did you ever discuss how to beat the Giants and Eagles combo coverage plays?
I doubt it. Mentioned that on the first page, don't think I've been back to it. I take it you'd like me to drag that topic back onto my post-burner? (I'll be referring to tactics I've already discussed, to one degree or another.)
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Old 02-23-2011, 01:09 AM   #55
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Re: Ebongreen's advice & observations thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebongreen
I doubt it. Mentioned that on the first page, don't think I've been back to it. I take it you'd like me to drag that topic back onto my post-burner? (I'll be referring to tactics I've already discussed, to one degree or another.)
I would. I recently played them in the Super Bowl in the 2nd year of my dynasty, and their pass rush totally overwhelmed my offensive line. They also shut down both my running and passing game. I was lucky to win it 6-3, but I had absolutely no offense in that game. Any help would be appreciated.
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Old 02-23-2011, 08:58 PM   #56
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Storms and Talons: Beating the Combo-Coverage Blitz

The play(s) mrs and I are talking about are in at least two forms of the 4-3 defense - Normal and Under. This is the go-to play for the Eagles and Giants playbook: they call it over 50% of the time in base down-and-distance. In Normal the play is called Storm Blitz - in Under it's Talon Blitz. The actions for each defensive player is identical regardless of form: all four DL rush, the ROLB and SS blitz, the MLB and LOLB each cover underneath hook zones outside the hashes and inside the numbers, each corner has man coverage on a WR, and the FS sets up in the deep middle.

The play's strengths are in preventing completions to the top two WRs and stopping the inside run. The WRs are bracketed by man-under, zone to the middle, and a single high safety: strong coverage discouraging slants, posts, and most other in-breaking routes. With the SS blitzing, there are essentially eight men in the box to stop the run.

It also forces one-on-one matches in the pass rush because the defense is coming with six: an extra man in pass protection is required. That leaves fewer receivers running routes, and less time to complete any passes you might attempt.

Last and not least, both the Eagles and Giants execute these defenses well because both have (at start) very good defensive coaches like the late Jim Johnson.

Successful running: Inside runs are usually a losing effort due to the stunting and angles of the linemen and the run support from the SS; likewise outside runs or tosses to the right. Counters and draws take too long to develop. Outside runs to the left usually rely on your TE blocking a very good RE, so those are difficult but not impossible - likewise pitches left. Your best bets for successful runs are are left-directed heavy (2TE 2RB) sets or twin-WR sets which you can flip, so both corners and the blitzing safety sit away from the direction of the play. Plays like I Form Twin WR HB Toss, Strong I Twin HB Stretch, and Singleback Big Twin WR HB Stretch are good bets for your HB to gain some yards.

Note "some yards" - even with a good playbook, your running game won't usually carry the day against these plays.

Successful passing: Let's break this defense down further. You attack zone defenses by throwing where guys aren't, so where are zone defenders not present in this defense? There are basically five holes: both flats, one shallow between the LBs and under the FS, and two deep in the lateral thirds away from the FS. One way to think of it is as a weird variation on the Tampa-2: the MLB takes over in the Tampa ROLB zone, the FS takes the deep middle third like the Tampa MLB would.

You can attack man coverage through double-moves, so one option is to send your WRs deep using sluggo (slant-and-go), hitch-and-go, out-and-up, or post-corner routes into those lateral thirds. They've still got a man on them, though, so those routes will be contested. WRs should be a secondary target in your passing game against this defense.

Sending running backs on pass routes into the flats on flares or wheels can get you some yardage too, but you are well-served to keep at least one back in for pass-protection. Secondarily, those backs will be faced with a very aggressive linebacker coming downhill to minimize YAC.

What receiver have I not mentioned at all, who's not single-covered in man, that the passing AI loves to throw to anyway? Every quarterback's best friend, the tight end. Similarly, what's one of your best tools to fluster the blitz in this game? Play-action bootlegs. Each of them alone are very useful against this scheme. Put the two of them together, and you have the go-to recipe for touchdown after touchdown.

The routes you want to have your TE and #3WR running are wheels and corners. Play-action passes like the I-Form Twin PA Waggle and PA Cross In, and the Strong I PA FL Middle and (to a lesser degree, if you motion the flanker from right-to-left) PA Flood, will gain ridiculous yardage with a star tight end - and by ridiculous, I mean 200-300 yards per game. (In my current franchise in the 2011-12 season, in two different games against the Giants Karron Cousins had 229 in one and Drew Goldman had 297 in the other.) Adding play-action means that the LBs that are supposed to be covering the hook zones play the run first and cover second, so the TE gets behind the underneath-zone defenders almost immediately. If you get your TE behind the linebacker(s) and outside the safety, there's no-one there. A completed pass becomes a foot-race between your TE and the FS, and your man has a head start. Money money money.

Thrown in shotgun passes to a capable slot receiver, and you'll chew this defense up routinely. Out of the shotgun, the best play(s) have your #1 & #2 WRs running short routes, with the TE & #3 running deep. Your HB must stay in to pass-protect, preferably on the strong-side. Plays like the shotgun Slot Strong FL Drag (TE: hitch; slot: deep out) and SE Quick Hit (TE: streak; slot: corner) are very well-suited to attack this defense, as is Offset Weak Dig Wheel (TE: cross; slot: wheel) if you flip it.

I dislike cheese, but I dislike stupid AI play even more. If the AI blitzes me mercilessly and psychotically, I don't feel bad about taking advantage of its weaknesses. Since the AI and playbooks for these teams don't adapt, I put up 6-8 TD passes and 60-90 points and get the opposing head coaches and defensive coordinators fired in the playoffs. *shrugs* Real HCs and DCs would never behave like that, because they know the truth of the old saying: "Live by the blitz, die by the blitz."

Play like a real head coach: call plays that win you games, and have playbooks diverse enough to respond to how the opposition plays you. If blitzing doesn't work, play coverage. If man doesn't work, play zone. Don't marry yourself to just one way, because doing only one way means the team who can stop that one way will defeat you. In HC09, you have the tools and the ability to learn: be a winner.
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