Re: 2018-2019 NBA Predictions Thread.
 

Long season to go and things will inevitably change, but the top 4 MVP candidates so far IMO:

1. Kawhi
2. Giannis
3. Steph
4. AD

Re: 2018-2019 NBA Predictions Thread.
 

Helllll nah. Not enough games right now to base much off of record but,

Giannis, Steph, AD, Embiid, and it's not even close.

Kawhi is scoring efficiently and still one of the better defenders in the league, but he's not even the most impactful player on his own team right now. Lowry tops him in VORP, OB+/-, win shares, O win-shares, offensive rating, most of which Kawhi ins't even in the top 20.

Plus he's leading the league in assists, he contributing 44 points a game for them compared to Kawhi's 35.. Like I said the other day, this is the most iso ball I've ever seen from Kawhi, looks like he spent all of his time off playing 1 on 1 with Kobe.. He is incredibly efficient right now for an iso scorer, might even finish in the 50/40/90 group, but he's more replaceable for them right now than Lowry would be. Out of all players with 20+ usage this year he's 78th in the league in AST% at around 14%, interestingly enough DeRozan with Pop is barely out of the top 10 at over 34% averaging over 7 assists per game. That's basically what Toronto always needed him to be. He's also scoring more than Kawhi as well..

Re: 2018-2019 NBA Predictions Thread.
 

You seriously are coming in here on the topic of an MVP race and trying to tell us that Lowry is more valuable to the Raptors than Kawhi is?

Give me a break, bruh. I'm not even gonna respond to that nonsense. Lay off the advanced stats on this one and use the eye test so you can see "The Kawhi Effect".

Re: 2018-2019 NBA Predictions Thread.
 

100%, if Curry wasn't going berserk right now Lowry would be first team All-NBA point guard at this point. The "eye test" shows that one of those two players is doing more than just dribbling the ball and shooting. He's playing like the best real "point guard" in the league right now and at only 35 minutes a game is directly responsible for more than HALF of their offensive production while he's on the floor.

He's doing it without dominating the ball and hogging the shot volume. That type of production is barely behind the percentages that Westbrook and Harden have provided for their teams over the past few years now.

Maybe it's your eye test that's flawed. Oh Toronto is a top 3 team in the East with Kawhi just like they have been the past 4 years with DeRozan. What "Kawhi effect" is so glaring right now? Volume scoring is replaceable, 14 other players are scoring 25+ a night, high usage high shots equals high points. Kawhi is a much better player than Kyle, but he's not been their most important piece 8 games into the season, much less more important to them than what Giannis, Steph, Embiid, AD, have been.

Re: 2018-2019 NBA Predictions Thread.
 

Lowry is playing more like a PG but he didn't look so hot against the Bucks without Leonard out there. Leonard is 100% the Raptors MVP, especially what he helps bring on the defensive side of the ball. I didn't see Lowry out there causing Ben Simmons to turn the ball over 10 times. Simmons wasn't making comments after the game about Lowry being a freak. Etc.

Also you can miss me with that 1st team nonsense lol cause Damian Lillard would like a word with you about that.

Sent from my Note 8 using Tapatalk

Re: 2018-2019 NBA Predictions Thread.
 

Julius Randle and Marcus Morris are looking like good candidates, as well. I think Lance's and Randle's numbers are better but Boston might have a losing record if it weren't for Morris playing so well.

Re: 2018-2019 NBA Predictions Thread.
 

And this is all nba.com mentioned as well, "Kawhi has shown he isn't' a system player and Ben Simmons said he played good defense".. It's one game. He's already missed two of the 8 games and at that rate would miss 20+ games this season. We all know he's a great defender but an A++++ perimeter defender doesn't provide the value and responsibility of B level defensive big who hedges, helps, protects the rim, and by that turn of logic he would still inevitably be behind at least AD and Embiid, not to mention GS and MIL are still much more dependent on Steph and Giannis than Toronto and Kawhi.

Lowry is a good defender, regardless of Ben Simmons saying something about Kawhi or not. IDK why that's a basis for MVP arguments anyways. This already looks like another year of "give him MVP he's a two way player" when he's not going to rank in the top 10 of any defensive metric we have and other wing players are responsible for more than a thousand points of offense more than him. It's a tired argument.

Opponents he guards only shoot 2% worse than their norm, and he's only defending 10 shots per game. This is basically the exact same as Lowry's numbers. Which is worse than Green, and Ibaka. Toronto actually ranked slightly better as a team LAST YEAR on defense. Kawhi isn't top 20 in DB+/-, defensive rating, defensive win shares, defensive rebounds, blocks, and he's 13th in steals. He doesn't rank in the top 50 in deflections, hasn't drawn any charges, doesn't contest a ton of shots. Doesn't offer a good rate of passing and creating for others, doesn't offer any more screen assists than Toronto's guards, etc..

Toronto as of now is nothing substantially more/less than they have been the past 3-4 years. To say he's provided some massive impact that wasn't there when replaced by an equal level isolation scorer is simply false. To say he isn't more replaceable for them than Curry, Giannis, AD, Embiid, at the least through 8ish games would be false. Everything points to Lowry's game being more influential on the other guys on the court than Kawhi thus far. You're picking an MVP who's literally missed a quarter of his teams games thus far. At this same rate he's not a substantially better defender than Lowry, Green, Ibaka, and Lowry is on pace to contribute 800+ more points on the year for his team..

Do those stats tell everything, no. But they tell more than the same old narrative of "they have a good record, he scores a good amount of points, he plays two-ways"...

Far too early to make MVP claims at this point anyways, there is little to nothing to go by. But just 8 games in, picking him over those guys just seems borderline laughable.

Re: 2018-2019 NBA Predictions Thread.
 

There you go with those advanced stats again and you know MVPs aren't based off advanced stats. Are you in that group that thinks Pau Gasol was more important to the Lakers championships than Kobe was too?

- Steph Curry is playing like an MVP but he's on the most stacked team ever...he shouldn't get MVP.
- Joel Embiid's team is .500 so I wouldn't put him above Kawhi right now.
- Giannis and AD have legitimate arguments to be the front runners. I'm just saying Kawhi does too. And yes, it's extremely early and a small sample so this is all gonna be moot soon. Maybe I should've specified that those 4 are interchangeable, Kawhi was just who I thought of first.