The "better team" on paper doesn't always win on Sunday. The Titans D, as I said, could be the #1 this season after being the #5 last, and that could go a long way. I like your lack of hesitation in predictions, almost like it really is a certainty in your mind despite the array of variables that face any NFL season, but they are just that - predictions - and ultimately it isn't as simple as that formula suggests. Maybe in Madden, but not the NFL. A great D will allow any team to be in almost any game. A great O will, at best, guarantee some flashy plays but maybe not a winning chance in the dieing moments of a game.
The Jags may be a "VERY good team", but as my stats prove, they haven't performed much better in the W-L column than the Titans in the past 2 seasons - 1 game separates them, that's it. As for Porter, Williamson and Northcutt, sorry but they are not big name offensive players at all. One is a borderline solid WR, the other two are single dimensional cast offs with suspect hands. I'd consider Crumpler a better offensive signing than Porter.
BTW, I'm not saying the Titans are certain to come out and dominate, I'm just wondering where the logic is. The Titans are this offseason's sexy bad pick without a doubt. The best I've seen them finish in the division predictions both amateur and "expert" is 3rd, with most predictions providing records suggesting a significant step backwards, and this is for a young fresh playoff team seemingly on the rise. It goes against almost all other similar teams I've seen in prediction history. It's almost like the Titans are being penalized for lacking offensive star power, and for making the playoffs and not making a statement, where as the Browns with their offensive star power and their "awww they were so close to making it" powered momentum get all this respect, when those things alone don't win football games.