The curious case of Chris Johnson...

[mrprice33]

I don't have time to fully flesh this out, but I just saw that Donny is lowering Johnson's physical attributes due to his poor production. This struck me as odd. There's no tangible evidence that his physical attributes have changed, as much as the Titan OL is just not playing as well as they had in past years, be it due to scheme or personnel. It made me think though. In a sport where every player is dependent on other players to do their job, can we ever get anything close to a decent approximation of a player's abilities for the purposes of rating? Is there any other way to get a computer simulation to accurately represent nfl players? Consider Larry Fitzgerald. His production has been way off his standard with kurt warner, but Warner isn't throwing him the ball anymore. How can we attribute the reduction in production to one party?

[DeuceZeroz]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

I was thinking the same thing myself. Having a less productive season thus far doesnt mean he has gotten slower or cant cut as well as he used to. He is easily still the fastest back in the league an his rating reflects that being at 99. How does not playing well put that fact in jeopardy? It could be scheme, o-line or "who cares? I got my contract-itis". That caught me off guard as well.

[mrprice33]

I get why he does it (I think), but it rings false. If you traded cj for a running back who is on a dominant run blocking team, he'd thrive, I think. At the very least, there's no evidence that he wouldn't.

[EccentricMeat]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

Well, honestly, Chris Johnson HAS been slower. He just hasn't had that burst all year. Maybe it's the lack of training camp/pre-season, maybe he's taking the day off because of his contract, or maybe (and this is my honest opinion), CJ just isn't that good of a RB.

The running back is the most overrated position in NFL history. Besides AP and Barry Sanders, how many RBs have been successful without a good O-line? Good O-line's make any running back look good/great. Just look at the Texans. Foster went down with an injury in the pre-season, Tate came in and looked a LOT like Foster. That O-line is what makes those two RBs look as good as they do, not the RBs themselves.

[TNT713]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

CJ2K cashed out while he still could. He knew he doesn't have his burst. He's a running back in the NFL. Youthful legs with 'burst' don't last more than 3-4 years.

Sadly, CJ2K doesn't have anything to offer on the football field except speed. His vision isn't all that great, and he's not very elusive. This year he's doing NOTHING between the tackles, and no one is letting him get to the edge.

This is a case where someone takes the money and doesn't run. LOL

Later

[Blue Ninja]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

CJ2K is still IMO one of the best running back in the league. He has great vision, and has sick lateral movement and acceleration like nobody. He's had the toughest schedule than any other back in the league. This week against Indy, he doesn't have that excuse. It is a new running scheme and new coach so that has to be a factor.

CJ wasn't dominant because his line was great rather he made his line look better than they really are. In football it takes 11 players to win and produce. Great QBs makes WRs or TEs look great. Great line makes RBs or QBs look great. Great Pass rushing makes secondary look great. same goes the other way.

ofcourse there are clear exceptions though but there arent many.

[KBLover]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

This is a case where someone takes the money and doesn't run. LOL

LOL that's a good one

[KBLover]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

The running back is the most overrated position in NFL history. Besides AP and Barry Sanders, how many RBs have been successful without a good O-line? Good O-line's make any running back look good/great.

Exactly, which is why if HB is doing badly, the run blocking of the OL needs to take a hit unless it's clear the HB just isn't taking advantage of the holes they are making, or another HB on the same team IS doing well - then that might hint at the difference being the HBs themselves.

Otherwise, the "blame" shouldn't go just on CJ. If he's lost explosiveness and what not - represent that of course, but evaluate the OL as well. Just seems when ratings are dropped/increased, it goes all on the skill positions on offense - as if the OL doesn't make any of it possible.

And if it's the scheme, then give the coaches a negative modifier to HBs and leave the actual ratings of the HB alone (unless they also warrant change). That way, the player will struggle on that team with the negative modifier, but a new coach (a user could fire that coach in their franchise) or a new team could revitalize him.

There are coaching modifiers. Use them, EA. Evaluate team schemes and use more subtlety as well as brute force ratings drops.

[Champion8877]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

im not sure, i kinda agree with lowering some of his ratings. he just does not have that burst this year and isnt producing at all.

i mean its not like its just 1 or 2 bad games, it has been 7 consistently bad games. and you can blame no training camps or his holdout all you want, but no player had training camps. they had preseason but that was 4 games and they were ready to go by regular season, CJ missed pre-season but thats it. so he missed 4 extra weeks that nobody else did. so if the fact that he held out is why he is bad, shouldnt he be better by week 5? well looks like he is not.

im not sure what it is with him, he just doesnt have it this year, although some of that could be the O-line...idk

[ABR173rd]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

I don't have time to fully flesh this out, but I just saw that Donny is lowering Johnson's physical attributes due to his poor production. This struck me as odd. There's no tangible evidence that his physical attributes have changed, as much as the Titan OL is just not playing as well as they had in past years, be it due to scheme or personnel. It made me think though. In a sport where every player is dependent on other players to do their job, can we ever get anything close to a decent approximation of a player's abilities for the purposes of rating? Is there any other way to get a computer simulation to accurately represent nfl players? Consider Larry Fitzgerald. His production has been way off his standard with kurt warner, but Warner isn't throwing him the ball anymore. How can we attribute the reduction in production to one party?

You can blame the O-line all you would like, the fact of the matter is in today's game NFL RB's have a short shelf life. I would attribute most of HIS issues with sitting on his butt the whole off-season. He is not the CJ2k he once was as of right now and its mainly because of his physical ability.

He doesn't have the burst he once had and that is a tangible trait, therefore his physical attributes were lowered to compensate for it. Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson still put up good numbers and made great plays WHEN their respective QB's were getting the ball to them. Chris Johnson has been getting the ball and just isn't making it happen. Just because he's blaming his O-line for his woes doesn't mean its reality.

[DonkeyJote]

They were showing some film on ESPN, and the Titans are making holes. Some big ones. He's just not hitting the hole. He's running very tentatively. It reminds me a ton of Shawn Alexander's dropoff. The skills were still there, but there was zero aggressiveness in attacking the hole or defenders.

Sent from my SCH-I500 using Tapatalk

[shagrugg]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

I don't have time to fully flesh this out, but I just saw that Donny is lowering Johnson's physical attributes due to his poor production. This struck me as odd. There's no tangible evidence that his physical attributes have changed, as much as the Titan OL is just not playing as well as they had in past years, be it due to scheme or personnel. It made me think though. In a sport where every player is dependent on other players to do their job, can we ever get anything close to a decent approximation of a player's abilities for the purposes of rating? Is there any other way to get a computer simulation to accurately represent nfl players? Consider Larry Fitzgerald. His production has been way off his standard with kurt warner, but Warner isn't throwing him the ball anymore. How can we attribute the reduction in production to one party?

There are a few issues at play here... the first being EA does not rate positions equally, i.e. players are not rated based on their actual physical attributes, but more so with the intent of how that position is programmed to perform in game animations based off of specific attribute values.

Fundamentally how to rate players is certainly something that developers have discussed at length (in a development environment there are many voices and ideas and then one direction that is decided upon). Evidenced by the fact that it has changed from release to release over the years.

So do you rate all players equally regardless of position based on their raw physical attributes?

Or

Do you rate players based on purely their statistical performance in a team oriented sport?

Or

Do you rate players based on a combination of factors? (such as physical attributes, statistical performance, what their position is, who the coach/coaches are, whether or not the player has signed a new fat contract loaded with guaranteed money or is hungry to get one before free agency, attitude, off-field issues that affect performance on the field)

Regardless of how you feel players should be rated... the reality is the third option... which is extremely difficult if not impossible to program.

So to the original question of should CJ2K drop? I would say yes based on several of the factors above and that many have alluded to in this thread.

[TotenHosen]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

Umm.. look at what Matt Forte is doing with the horrible blocking the Bears line has been giving lately. I haven't watched many Titans games but I couldn't imagine they have been much worse although the Bears line has improved the last few games. Can't blame it all on the line.

Barry Sanders would have broken all of the records if he would have run behind the Dallas O line that Emmitt Smith had but Smith would have been a nobody if he switched places.

[mogrod]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

Yea, I'm a Texans fan and watched CJ do absolutely NOTHING this last Sunday. He looked horrible. Seriously, anyone can talk about the O-Line, but he ran scared. Even the guys who do he radio broadcast for the Texans were talking about how he missed a couple of huge holes early in the game because he was very tentative. Even on passes to him in the flats and tosses where it got him out in space, he was consistently being brought down by the first tackler. It's like he didn't even try.

Again as a Texans fan, I've watched this dude run all over the place on my team, but he's not the same runner at all right now. Which by the way SUCKS for my fantasy team.

[Woodcutta]

Re: The curious case of Chris Johnson...

Umm.. look at what Matt Forte is doing with the horrible blocking the Bears line has been giving lately. I haven't watched many Titans games but I couldn't imagine they have been much worse although the Bears line has improved the last few games. Can't blame it all on the line.

Barry Sanders would have broken all of the records if he would have run behind the Dallas O line that Emmitt Smith had but Smith would have been a nobody if he switched places.

Really? A nobody? Way to show respect for the all-time leading rusher in NFL history. I agree that Barry would have had a better career numbers wise but he is still a first ballot HOF. He might have broken all the records if he wouldn't have just left the game but that was his decision. Don't be hating on a player that, according to the scouts, shouldn't have had a career anywhere close to what he had.