The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

[bjh909]

Hey everyone. With the World Cup, and a new FIFA World Cup video game, I've felt inspired to bring back an old project I was doing but never got very far with. Since I decided I don't have time or energy to invest in a yearly FIFA game, hopefully sticking with just the WC game will help. Anyway... here's the synopsis.

I will be simming (CPU vs CPU) an entire four-year cycle of FIFA international competitions, culminating with the FIFA World Cup, using the WC 2014 Brazil game. Yes, this includes all continental tournaments (EURO, Gold Cup, Copa America, etc), qualifiers, and even the AFC regional tournaments (SAFF, WAFF, etc). Not only will one cycle conclude with a World Cup champion, but also a Confederations Cup champion, which was made up from actual winners of the continental tournaments of that cycle.

It's a lot of games. A lot. So I won't be spamming this thread with results. I have created a wiki page to track all of my results, and give some semblance of organization to the project:

http://fifaproject.wikia.com/

I update as I sim games, and when a round/matchday is complete, I'll post here. So many games makes it tough to write full descriptions, but I track the goal scorers on the site, and will include some points of interest in the round in my updates.

The site is still a work in progress, and I'm building the pages in the order they are coming up. There is currently a calendar page which shows the order I'm simming in. It's close to, if not exactly, the actual FIFA international calendar.

Some other odds and ends:
- I'm using an Elo rating rather than the FIFA ranking, and I am calculating these as games are completed. (Gotta love Excel.) Everyone starts with their real points total at the end of the 2014 World Cup (which means I still have 4 teams to update, the finalists and 3rd place teams).
- I am doing an actual seeded draw for all tournaments that require one. I am using my Elo ranking to seed teams instead of the FIFA one, but I am keeping it as close to the actual cutoff time as the actual draw.
- The only thing that's carrying over right now are red cards. Counting yellows gets a bit much for this project, but sending offs are less frequent and easier.
- No friendlies. There's plenty already.
- Any other info, including how I handle two-legged ties, is on the main page of the wikia.

Any other questions, happy to answer! Hope you guys find this as interesting as I do.

[bigjdotcom01]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

Interesting concept, I like it!

[jromero120]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

Definitely looking forward to this!

[bjh909]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

Hey all,

I've been on vacation, and so I haven't been able to advance the project at all since last week. But I've been chipping away at the website, even if the pages don't have any teams listed yet because there's been no draws. So I might as well throw in some notes of what I *have* done so far:

Currently Playing: Africa Cup of Nations Third Round Qualifying
I'll include this in every update, as it is listed on the wiki's main page, so anyone can check out and see what page will be updated. I'll keep the posts limited to ends of rounds or major developments/updates.

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying (Link)
We are up to the third and final round of qualifying for the Y1C1 Africa Cup of Nations. 32 teams remain, with the top two teams from each of the 8 groups advancing to the final stage. Here are some interesting notes from qualifying so far:

• A few upsets in the second round of qualifying. The highest ranked team to be eliminated is 19th ranked in CAF team Togo. They fell to Swaziland via the away goals rule, after two draws, the second being a 2-2 home draw that doomed them.
• The other higher ranked team to not make it to the group stage also comes on the heels of a surprise team. Kenya, ranked 21st in CAF, fell to the only team from the first qualifying round still alive: the tiny island nation of Comoros. Comoros have been doing it with defense, only allowing one goal in both rounds of qualifying.
• Lowly-ranked Chad upset Tanzania to also earn a spot in the groups.
• The draw for the third round (group stage) was made prior to knowing the 16 teams from the second round. Winners 1-8 were placed in pot 3, while Winners 9-16 were put in pot 4. This created some interesting groups, with Egypt & Morocco paired in Group C, and South Africa & Tunisia together in Group H. However, the true "group of death" in qualifying comes in Group F. Ivory Coast and Cape Verde are joined by Angola and DR Congo, as the top-ranked African nation is joined by the 14th, 20th, and 21st.

Y1C1 Copa America Draw (Link)
The Y1C1 Copa America draw was made using the Elo ratings from the start of the cycle. The top teams, Argentina, Colombia, and Brazil, each were appropriately drawn into groups of the first letter of their names. Invitees Mexico and the United States join the fray this time, and I will most likely use two of the three NAFU teams (US, Mexico, Canada) to fill these slots in the future.

The US have the best possible draw possible, falling into Colombia's group with Ecuador and Venezuela, arguably the weakest teams from Pot 2 and Pot 3. A draw like that could feasibly see them advance beyond the group stage, something that has eluded them in past appearances.

Mexico did not fare so well, drawn into a stacked group with Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay. Two groups will have 3 teams advance to the knockout stage, but will the powerhouses in this group hammer one another to the point that the third-place team won't have performed well enough?

In addition, the AFF Suzuki Cup group stage draw was made, which will take place after its qualifying round is complete. You can find that on the AFC Regional Tournaments page.

I'm back tomorrow, sad to leave the beach, but ready to get some more games simmed this week.

[lionden_56]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

This is both insanely ambitious and insanely cool at the same time. I look forward to reading the updates.

[pfeifere1]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

The depth and detail of this project is unreal. Can't wait to see this really hit the ground running.

I like this first update of what you have done so far. Will you keep these updates to go along with your main site? I think we'd all like that.

Good luck!

[bjh909]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

The depth and detail of this project is unreal. Can't wait to see this really hit the ground running.

I like this first update of what you have done so far. Will you keep these updates to go along with your main site? I think we'd all like that.

Good luck!

Thanks for the kind words, all. I'll definitely use them to keep the project going, even when I get distracted by shiny new games, haha.

To be honest, the site is mostly for my own record-keeping. It's way easier and more versatile than a spreadsheet, which I used to keep everything in. My spreadsheet just has results, ranking calcs, and macros to do the draws.

But as far as updates go, they'll go here, while the site will just have the results like it currently does. I'll do more updates in here, mostly when rounds end or when a new tournament/round begins.

[bjh909]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

Just completed: Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying - Third Round Matchday 2 of 6
Not much to report from the two matchdays. No real surprises from any results, as the top seeded teams are leading the groups.

Currently playing: European Championship Qualifying - Matchday 1

Check out the groups that have been drawn for the Euro. Will report on any important results.

Sorry for the small update, but wanted to keep the thread alive with site updates that are happening as I'm simming.

[bjh909]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

We've entered October Y0C1 in The FIFA Project, and more continental tournament qualifiers are going on.

Currently Playing: Africa Cup of Nations Third Round Qualifying
Soon enough, the field of 16 for the Africa Cup of Nations will be known, as the group stage heads into matchdays 3 and 4 of 6. Teams can definitely clinch spots after the 4th game, so we'll see how that plays out. Results are being updated as I'm simming them.

Also coming up in October: Euro Qualifying, Caribbean Cup Qualifying Second Round, AFF Suzuki Cup Qualifying

UEFA European Championship Qualifying (http://fifaproject.wikia.com/wiki/UE...fying_(Cycle_1))
Only one matchday took place in September, with two more coming in October Y0C1. Here are some highlights:

• Ukraine grabbed a valuable draw in Amsterdam. An away draw against the top-seeded team in Group A may not look great now, but could be the difference-maker for Ukraine.
• Teemu Pukki broke Swedish hearts with a big 2-1 home win for Finland over their border rivals. Zlatan sent the three crowns into the half up 1-0, but Pukki hit back twice in the first 10 minutes of the second half to put Sweden in a hole right off the bat. Elsewhere in Group C, Kazakhstan staged a comeback to earn a 2-2 draw at home against Slovakia.
• In Group E, Russia won a shootout with Denmark, with the final score 3-2. The second of two Kerzhakov goals put the home side up 3-1. Meanwhile, everyone's favorite minnow, the Faroe Islands, picked up a huge upset of an away win, keeping Montenegro scoreless at home and winning 1-0.
• Germany beat Liechtenstein 7-0. Six Germans made their way onto the score sheet. This pretty much played out as many could have guessed.
• Arguably the top two in the five-team Group I, Belgium edged out a winner through Marouane Fellaini. The 79-minute strike was his second goal of the game, and enough to beat Croatia 3-2, with Mandzukic scoring Croatia's two.

With two games in October, plenty of mouth-watering pairings coming up, a the Swiss have to face Turkey and Germany in back-to-back games. Similarly, Ireland have the Czech Republic and France in two home games. And all eyes are watching the Group H battle between England and Scotland.

Caribbean Cup First Round Qualifying (Link)
Caribbean Cup qualifying began, with 25 CFU teams participating. The bottom 20 started out, in five groups of 4. The group winners and top four runners up join teams ranked 3-5 in the second and final qualifying round, with 6 teams joining the top 2 ranked teams in the competition proper.

• Most of the top ranked teams won their group, but all five top seeded teams (Dominican Republic, Antigua and Barbuda, Suriname, Bermuda, Grenada) made their way to the second round. Grenada was the only one not winning the group.
• The Bahamas were the surprise performance, winning Group B (tied with Grenada). With convincing wins over St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Montserrat, they easily slid into the second round.
• Suriname had the most comprehensive path, in a group starved of scoring. 1-0 wins over Aruba and Barbados represented 2 of the 4 goals scored in the 6 games, and were enough to send them through.
• In the second round, Group G looks to be the toughest route, with Cuba being joined by Antigua and Barbuda, Bermuda, and Dominica. With Suriname and the Dominican Republic joining Haiti, both of those groups will have strong CFU teams on the outside looking in. Those games take place in October Y0C1.

[bjh909]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

Just an update that I'm still going through EURO qualifying after being away from home this weekend. We are currently in Matchday 3 games, followed by Caribbean Cup qualifying first round games. An update should go out at the end of October Y0C1, with recaps of both of those.

[Rotide12]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

Following this and thinking about doing this myself! Very Cool

[pfeifere1]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

How did you figure out the schedule for the 4 year cycle?

[bjh909]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

How did you figure out the schedule for the 4 year cycle?

I copied the upcoming fixture schedule where it existed already. And for others, I tried to stick as close to the 2010-2014 calendar as possible, unless it was clear that format was changing and the new format was stated. When I had to fill in the blanks, I used my own intuition or matched them up with where other confederations would have international dates.

Two examples of this:

-OFC is saying they're going to change their World Cup Qualifying process for 2018, but haven't said anything more than just that. I kept with the 2014 process.

- AFC is increasing the Asian Cup from 16 to 24 starting in 2019, which is kind of a dumb move, but whatever. They, however, have put out releases explicitly stating that Asian Cup qualifying will be tied to World Cup qualifying, with there being a round that splits off. At that point, 12 teams moving on in WCQ will have qualified for the Asian Cup, while the teams that didn't move on go to Asian Cup qualifying to fill in the rest of the field.

Hope that answers your question.

[bjh909]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

November Y0C1 has begun, with continental qualifying concluding for some, continuing for others. Also, slots in the Y1C1 CONCACAF Gold Cup are up for grabs!

Currently Playing: Africa Cup of Nations Third Round Qualifying

• Six teams punched tickets to the group stage, and it's all the expected teams: Senegal, Mali, Morocco, Egypt, Nigeria, and Cameroon. That locks up Groups B & C.
• Ghana are all but mathematically through, with Gambia and Burkina Faso fighting for the second spot in Group D. South Africa have taken a big lead, and only need to avoid a catastrophic final two games to advance. Uganda in Group E is one point away from knocking out Libya and the already-eliminated Comoros.
• The group of death... Group F. It raised eyebrows from the draw, and is delivering excitement to the last day. Ivory Coast could have clinched qualification, but lost at home 1-0 to Angola, keeping all four teams in the hunt. Ivory Coast still have 9 points, but Cape Verde and now Angola are on their heels with 6, with an all-important Angola/Cape Verde game in Matchday 5. Congo DR aren't out either, but would need help along with two wins.
• Qualifying concludes in November, and the remaining 10 teams will be known!

UEFA European Championship Qualifying (Link)

• What is going on with the Netherlands? Two draws, and a home loss to Israel. Not just a loss. A 4-0 drubbing. The expanded Euro field means more teams from each group, but the Dutch now sit in 5th place after three games, with Hungary undefeated so far in Group A.
• Armenia are looking to make a serious run in Group D. Their 9 points in 3 games aren't smoke and mirrors, as they've taken wins against Greece and Romania, two of the contenders in a group that has the tiny nation tied in first with Italy, who they host in November.
• Group E has the potential to be a really tight group, but everyone except Russia and Poland have struggled. Dropped points for draws put third place (the Faroe Islands at 3 points!) already at a distance from the top two at 9.
• Only one November matchday in UEFA, but some mouth-watering ties: Portugal vs Bosnia-Herzegovina, Armenia vs Italy, and Israel vs Hungary for top position in their respective groups!

Caribbean Cup Second Round Qualifying (Link)

• The big guns who received byes to this round all advanced, but were joined by some surprises, in Curacao and Turks & Caicos Islands. Despite a 4-0 thrashing to group winners Haiti, T&C picked up 4 points, including a win over Suriname in an admittedly weak group to advance.
• Curacao gained a spot in the group stage with wins over Guyana and the Bahamas. They joined Grenada in advancing, after losing to them 1-0 in the final day.
• The group stage of the Caribbean Cup is somewhat lopsided, with Group A containing Trinidad & Tobago, Haiti, Grenada, and Antigua & Barbuda. The two upset stories are paired in Group B with Jamiaca and Cuba. The Caribbean Cup will take place in November, with the teams that advance to the knockout stage gaining qualification to the CONCACAF Gold Gup.

AFF Suzuki Cup Qualifying (Link)
The Project's first journey into Asia begins with one of the many regional tournaments taking place every two years. We start off with the qualifying round of the ASEAN region's AFF Suzuki Cup.

• The bottom five teams play a round-robin, where two join the top six in the group stages.
• This truly came down to the last pair of games, as Cambodia had already clinched their spot with 7 points, making their loss to Timor-Leste inconsequential to both teams (though it put Timor-Leste in a heartbreaking third place).
• The final game to watch was top-ranked Malaysia, needing a win over Laos to replace them in the second round, and sure enough, a 2-0 win caused the top-seeded team of the five to leap up to second place.
• The tournament proper will take place in December Y0C1.

[bjh909]

Re: The FIFA Project - a four-year cycle of international competition

This is not a full update, but... the Y1C1 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying has completed, and we know the field of 16 teams!

Link: Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Group A: Algeria, Sierra Leone
Group B: Senegal, Mali
Group C: Morocco, Egypt
Group D: Burkina Faso, Ghana
Group E: Nigeria, Uganda
Group F: Ivory Coast, Cape Verde
Group G: Cameroon, Gabon
Group H: South Africa, Sudan

Notable teams who did not qualify:

• Guinea - The 9th ranked team in CAF fell in Group G, and can point to only 1 point from their two games against qualifiers Gabon and a 1-1 draw against last place Benin as where it went awry. They finished on 5 points, whereas Gabon finished with 8.
• Tunisia - Granted, a tough road for Tunisia, but the team that once was continues to fall. No wins, three draws, 3 points, saw them the whipping boys in a group with South Africa, Ethiopia, and Sudan.
• Zambia - The former champions were unable to get out of a tough Group A, which tightened up going into the final matchday, with Algeria at 8 points, and Sierra Leone, Congo, and Zambia all at 6. Zambia had the group leaders, while Sierra Leone knew that a win would see them through with the right other result. Sure enough, Algeria won at home, and Sierra Leone leaped over Zambia for qualification in exciting fashion!

The draw will take place soon, and the seeding pots will be announced at that time. Moving on to Euro qualifiers and the Caribbean Cup!