I do agree that actual skill progression/regression aren't tied to stats and metrics, but Madden ratings are a direct result of actual players on field performance (Donny increases/decreases ratings after checking stats and watching players).
It would be nice if progression/regression was a compilation of player development, position coaching, film work, age, injury AND stats and metrics. That would give us a more comprehensive picture of a players Ratings.
I also agree that the Goal system in regards to Confidence is silly. If
"a WR fails to catch 120 passes in a season doesn't mean his is going to regress", is a true statement. But if a WR drops 50 passes in a season he should regress. I am in your camp that that Confidence and progression/regression should be based off of positive and negative plays, injuries, and training, not a goal system.
Confidence should be like RAM where Progression/Regression should be like a HD. EX: If my QB throws a pick on his first throw, he should get a -5 CON (45). But if his second throw is a completion he should get +1 (46), and the next throw a TD he would earn a +5 (51). If my QB throws 4 INT's and 0 TD's, with a completion percentage of less than 50% in one game, it should affect his regression (in AWR & Accuracy), and possibly (depending on the QB's experience and mental toughness) have an effect in Confidence for the next weeks game.
Dips in regressed ratings should be able to be trained up in game prep activities like workouts, position drills, and going up against the scout team (made up of Practice Squad guys and 2nd/3rd stringers). And the amount of improvement should be directly tied into the quality of the coaching staff, and the players dedication, experience, and mental toughness (Resilience rating?). Confidence could be improved by film study and team meetings.
I am not a big fan on using XP to purchase ratings points. I feel that if, for example, you have a QB that practices on arm strength, and throws a good deep ball, his ratings in throw power and deep accuracy should reflect his skills on the field. I don't see how playing a good game, throwing a good deep ball, you earn XP, and you can buy speed (DOH! it just isn't logical).