I would say it is 50/50 when there is a crowd around the ball. More often then not though, the person closest to the ball who SHOULD recover the ball never does. But I had some instances where the offense recovered the fumble and times where the defense got it. To me though it just like a clustered mess when there is a crowd around the ball. You just see people standing there trying to scoop and run instead of diving on the ball. Got to the point I just USER dive towards the ball myself.
So they definitely need to tune that scoop versus dive on the loose ball logic. TOO many linemen try to scoop and run instead of diving on the ball.