I wholeheartedly agree. You could start a new CFM, replay the same matchup and get completely different results. Frankly, there is a tremendous amount of game-to-game variability - more often than not, they jive with the ratings....but sometimes, a guy gets shut down when he "shouldn't" and other times a guy explodes when he "shouldn't".
I really think that M16 captures the craziness of the NFL season quite nicely and by keeping this set as close to default as possible...you really see that come through.