Pack odds.

[Offballer4life]

This is my first year w this game. But I've done the 2k Myteam thing for years.

Everyone knows that packs are fun to open and generally a ginormous waste of $$.

When I bought The Show, I bought a 50box. I have earned the 10box from Conquest. And I've gotten a few free packs, as well as opened 1 or 2 a day just for kicks. I have also bought 8 of the Bases Loaded packs.

I've yet to pull a player above a silver. This isn't me whining that I spent money and didn t pull Trout. Its basically about keeping packs fun. I'm not going to say that I'm never opening a pack again, or that I won't go get 20psn card when I get my next bonus check.

My point is that packs could probably make a lot more money for Sony if pack odds were boosted a little. Because at this point, I would MUCH rather take my purchased Stubs right to the market to buy the player I want, rather than peeling nerfed packs. (This is actually where I prefer the system over 2Ks bc you can use purchased currency to buy players, rather than trying to turn VC into MT....but also relies on packs to convert VC to MT).

Again. Not throwing a tantrum. This is more of a heads up to any devs that may be watching. Bottom line, youd get more of my money if the best thing I got from a 50box wasn't the 7 guaranteed silvers. Its actually kind of laughable when you look at the value of silvers in the Market. Like "oh gee thanks". Lol

Anyways. Thoughts....?

[dougdfc]

Re: Pack odds.

I liked when the first bases loaded packs came out, and i didn't get a player above silver. had stuff like Double rate for diamond and triple for gold

[yelch]

Re: Pack odds.

My thoughts align with yours. I also bought a 50 pack, and with all the preorder rewards, conquest rewards and various packs received for playing, I am also yet to see a single gold player in them (not even dreaming of diamonds).
And same as you, I am not complaining, but that experience, coupled with server troubles caused me to withdraw already planned funds for another 50 pack.

I know I can and should just chalk it up to rotten luck, but I definitely have an unsubstantiated suspicion that this year's packs have been nerfed when compared to the past. Mostly because golds and diamonds cost so much on the market.
I remember last year being able to complete all teams with much less trouble and at much lower prices. This year, that goal seems impossible. Of course, I don't expect to have all possible cards by April 17, but at current prices it seems that even August 17 is out of reach.

[Offballer4life]

Re: Pack odds.

@yelch
I've had my suspicions that 2k has an algorithm tying odds to market value. Just a thought. I can't confirm either way. Logically speaking, it's probably true. As with just about any game with packs and a market to sell items. But users over at the 2k forum here have claimed that there is an algo that ties odds to money spent. Another claim that I cannot confirm. And I actually doubt that one, although I have had my suspicions...

Its a business, and 21st century *successful business models ....related to anything technology, are born in Silicon Valley. That's a conversation for another day. But worth noting that basically anything you could think of regarding how the game works.....has probably been thought of.

And please don't take this thread for any more than face value. I was in the middle of pack drama on the 2k forum, and I don't want to stir things up like I did there.

Tldr.....if I pulled 1 gold in ~100 packs, it would be cool.

The mission and reward system in the game is so good and plentiful though, that packs aren't really a concern to me. Sell dupes and work the market for an hour. Boom. There's an easy gold.

/ramble

[Starducket Moon]

Re: Pack odds.

I bought two ten packs to go along with my starter packs. I got nothing above silver. Then I went and sold all my doubles and got another 10 pack. My silver player was a diamond Lindor. I also got a gold Freeman and a gold Longoria. It's just like a lottery. It's worth it to buy packs now while your inventory is low and the price of gold players are still high. Later when the costs even out it's worth it more to just buy the individual cards you need.

[BigOscar]

Re: Pack odds.

Pretty much every single common or bronze player can be sold for about 100 stubs, so even if you get "nothing" from a pack, you still can recoup about two thirds of what you paid for it by selling the 6 players and discarding or selling the equipment/stadium. So in reality, a 50k pack, even if you didn't get a single silver, would net you maybe 35k+ in sellable cards. When you realise that, you start to realise why the odds of getting a diamond or even a gold are so low.

[Idgachuck]

Re: Pack odds.

Pretty much every single common or bronze player can be sold for about 100 stubs, so even if you get "nothing" from a pack, you still can recoup about two thirds of what you paid for it by selling the 6 players and discarding or selling the equipment/stadium. So in reality, a 50k pack, even if you didn't get a single silver, would net you maybe 35k+ in sellable cards. When you realise that, you start to realise why the odds of getting a diamond or even a gold are so low.

I agree and this is what makes it so fun for me. Now that I have a team I like, I flip cards til 20k, open a 20 pack bundle, and even when I get all bronze/common, I make back at LEAST 10k, so worst case scenario I just flip cards for another 10k and repeat the process. It's very entertaining and sometimes it pays off big time. My best 20 pack bundle I pulled a diamond equipment , trea turner, starling marte and diamond polo grounds. I made like 65-70k, finished a few sets and had 20k leftover to repeat the process. I understand getting frustrated opening so many packs and never getting a diamond player, but if you enjoy flipping cards like I do it's not so bad.

[kooch66]

Re: Pack odds.

I've extensively played Ultimate Team in FIFA, NHL, and Madden, MyTeam in NBA 2K, and I've played DD every year that it's been in The Show and I can say without a shadow of doubt that this has the worst pack odds, by far.

On top of that, it's also the only game that has only one currency, meaning the stubs you purchase with real cash can also be used in the auction house. Therefore, and unfortunately, it's always "correct" to just buy players directly as opposed to messing with packs. So if you wanted to drop 100 bucks on 150k stubs you'll get infinitely more value just using them in the AH directly vs getting pack bundles.

I agree that this is also way less fun, but that doesn't mean throwing money away on packs is the better option, it just isn't. Personally, I've tried to find a happy medium of sorts by using stubs to do team collections and epics, which is far more entertaining and rewarding than just buying my whole team from the AH and actually presents a much better value as well.

[Offballer4life]

Re: Pack odds.

Pretty much every single common or bronze player can be sold for about 100 stubs, so even if you get "nothing" from a pack, you still can recoup about two thirds of what you paid for it by selling the 6 players and discarding or selling the equipment/stadium. So in reality, a 50k pack, even if you didn't get a single silver, would net you maybe 35k+ in sellable cards. When you realise that, you start to realise why the odds of getting a diamond or even a gold are so low.

Not sure what market you are selling on. There are a handful of teams whose bronzes are worth more than 50 stubs. And those teams' commons usually fetch 100. Many bronzes and commons are listed as low as 35 stubs.

But "when I realise"?......I read your post and was mildly encouraged. So I went thru my collection and started checking bronzes and commons. I WISH I could turn these cards around FOR HALF of What a pack costs. I actually contemplated putting together a video of me searching my collection, just to show you that your supposed yields are grossly inflated. If you're pulling 35k on every 50box, you have incredible luck.

There isn't any way to argue that buying packs is "worth it". Not trying to flame. Just bringing some reality into the mix.

[BigOscar]

Re: Pack odds.

Not sure what market you are selling on. There are a handful of teams whose bronzes are worth more than 50 stubs. And those teams' commons usually fetch 100. Many bronzes and commons are listed as low as 35 stubs.

But "when I realise"?......I read your post and was mildly encouraged. So I went thru my collection and started checking bronzes and commons. I WISH I could turn these cards around FOR HALF of What a pack costs. I actually contemplated putting together a video of me searching my collection, just to show you that your supposed yields are grossly inflated. If you're pulling 35k on every 50box, you have incredible luck.

There isn't any way to argue that buying packs is "worth it". Not trying to flame. Just bringing some reality into the mix.

Prices of cheap cards fluctuate hugely throughout the day and week, generally all being a lot more valuable in the first few weeks when the game just came out and people were trying to fill collections. I've rarely sold a player card for less than 70 stubs.

I was never suggesting the packs were good value, I was pointing out that the actual value of packs is a lot higher than people seem to realise, buying 50k of packs and expecting a card that is anywhere close to that value is ignoring the value of all the other minor cards you get in those packs.

Last year I spent about 300k on packs last year and opened hundreds of extra packs by reselling what I got

[Offballer4life]

Re: Pack odds.

Prices of cheap cards fluctuate hugely throughout the day and week, generally all being a lot more valuable in the first few weeks when the game just came out and people were trying to fill collections. I've rarely sold a player card for less than 70 stubs.

I was never suggesting the packs were good value, I was pointing out that the actual value of packs is a lot higher than people seem to realise, buying 50k of packs and expecting a card that is anywhere close to that value is ignoring the value of all the other minor cards you get in those packs.

Last year I spent about 300k on packs last year and opened hundreds of extra packs by reselling what I got

I understand your point. And I rarely sell anything for less than 70 as well. And when I went thru my collection last night, I couldnt find 20 common/bronze cards to max my orders that would sell for even 50 stubs. This is a pretty common thing for me. Im consistently checking prices at different times thru the day. I usually run thru my collection at least once a day to see if maybe one of the commons or bronzes has spiked. Sure, I find some good ones from teams where the collection is in demand, and sell for 75-100.

Minor cards....Even equipment and stadium prices are a joke. And many times, if I really wanted stubs, quick selling would be the more lucrative option. Which I wouldnt do. Id rather keep a card forever than sell for peanuts. Even to find a silver that goes for over 200 seems to be not as common as some would think. So even boxes with silver bonuses are...mehh. Bronze stadiums, silver or less sponsors, silver or less equipment.....all basically worthless (meaning that more often than not, they are going for <50 on the market). Unless they are needed for a mission or decent collection reward.

The odds are so low that I get literally no excitement or satisfaction heading to the pack store. In other games, with comparable modes, pack odds are at least good enough to keep me opening. The only thing that keeps me opening them now is that with every pack I open, (theoretically) my Diamond odds increase. Oh wait....I think I pulled a diamond piece of equipment that I flipped for <10k. yay

Owned the game a couple weeks now. Dropped some coin on packs to start. Been opening 1 or 2 a day lately just to see if luck swings my way. Unless people start raving about how pack odds are now lit, thats probably going to be my MO for the rest of the season.

[BigOscar]

Re: Pack odds.

I understand your point. And I rarely sell anything for less than 70 as well. And when I went thru my collection last night, I couldnt find 20 common/bronze cards to max my orders that would sell for even 50 stubs. This is a pretty common thing for me. Im consistently checking prices at different times thru the day. I usually run thru my collection at least once a day to see if maybe one of the commons or bronzes has spiked. Sure, I find some good ones from teams where the collection is in demand, and sell for 75-100.

Minor cards....Even equipment and stadium prices are a joke. And many times, if I really wanted stubs, quick selling would be the more lucrative option. Which I wouldnt do. Id rather keep a card forever than sell for peanuts. Even to find a silver that goes for over 200 seems to be not as common as some would think. So even boxes with silver bonuses are...mehh. Bronze stadiums, silver or less sponsors, silver or less equipment.....all basically worthless (meaning that more often than not, they are going for <50 on the market). Unless they are needed for a mission or decent collection reward.

The odds are so low that I get literally no excitement or satisfaction heading to the pack store. In other games, with comparable modes, pack odds are at least good enough to keep me opening. The only thing that keeps me opening them now is that with every pack I open, (theoretically) my Diamond odds increase. Oh wait....I think I pulled a diamond piece of equipment that I flipped for <10k. yay

Owned the game a couple weeks now. Dropped some coin on packs to start. Been opening 1 or 2 a day lately just to see if luck swings my way. Unless people start raving about how pack odds are now lit, thats probably going to be my MO for the rest of the season.

Having played an ungodly amount of FIFA UT in the past, I have to say that the pack odds in DD are infinitely better, especially considering the price of the packs. I've pulled probably 10 diamond players in DD, in FIFA I've pulled maybe three diamond equivalent cards in about 5 years, opening probably ten times as many packs, at far greater cost per pack. FIFA is an absolute disgrace on that front though, don't know about Madden but it's EA so I assume it's similarly terrible.

1000 stubs is also far, far easier to obtain than 7,500 FUT coins, not to mention the amount of free stubs and packs you get for completing missions (plus the free card after every game).

I have a lot of things I don't like about DD, but the value or pack odds isn't one of them. By these modes standards I think they absolutely throw stuff at you. I have a team of gold and diamond players within 3 weeks without paying a penny or doing any market trading, I really don't think that's the case on any other game of this type.

[dougdfc]

Re: Pack odds.

You say that, but I haven't pulled a diamond card EVER

[mikeq672]

Re: Pack odds.

People constantly project their experience onto others. We dont all experience the same thing.

[mer1in20]

Re: Pack odds.

People constantly project their experience onto others. We dont all experience the same thing.

This...ive opened several thousand packs altogether (this includes last year and the year before). Not one diamond card ever (unless you count that diamond sponsorship card i pulled this year which was worth 4k...)


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports