03-19-2021, 02:23 PM
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#1
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Rookie
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2021 March Madness Experimental Prediction Formula
I have watched ZERO college basketball this year, but I always enjoy March Madness. I also enjoy mathematics, statistics, and analytics. So, I wanted to try to look at key team stats and come up with a prediction formula. And, I did it. I will explain the process below then provide the "Team Rating" and their matchups. I'll bold the ones that are close enough to be interesting.
Each metric respectively rated from 0-10 based on its relation to the national best (10) or national worst (0).
Metrics are weighed by importance (my choice) and tallied for a total rating:
Strength of Schedule: 25%
Longest Winstreak: 5%
Wins in Last 10 Games: 10%
Offensive Efficiency: 20%
Defensive Efficiency: 20%
Effective FG%: 5%
Opp. Effective FG%: 5%
Turnover %: 5%
Opp. Turnover %: 5%
Offensive Rebound %: 5:%
Opp. Offensive Rebound %: 5%
Ratings/Matchups
1 - Gonzaga (8.3) ~ highest rated team
16 - Norfolk State (4.0)
16 - Appalachian State (3.9)
8 - Oklahoma (5.7)
9 - Missouri (5.0)
5 - Creighton (6.2)
12 - UC Santa Barbara (5.8)
4 - Virginia (6.1)
13 - Ohio (5.3)
6 - USC (6.2)
11 - Drake (6.0) ~ upset alert
11 - Wichita St. (5.3)
3 - Kansas (6.5)
14 - Eastern Washington (5.1)
7 - Oregon (6.0)
10 - VCU (5.6)
2 - Iowa (6.8)
15 - Grand Canyon (5.0)
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1 - Michigan (6.9)
16 - Texas Southern (4.6)
16 - Mt. St. Mary's (3.6)
8 - LSU (5.7)
9 - St. Bonaventure (6.1) ~ lower-seed favorite
5 - Colorado (6.4)
12 - Georgetown (5.3)
4 - Florida State (6.1)
13 - UNC Greensboro (5.1)
6 - BYU (5.6)
11 - UCLA (5.4) ~ upset alert
11 - Michigan St. (5.0)
3 - Texas (6.3)
14 - Abilene Christian (5.9) ~ one of the closest 3/14 matchups
7 - Uconn (6.2)
10 - Maryland (5.6)
2 - Alabama (6.6)
15 - Iona (4.5)
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1 - Baylor (7.7)
16 - Hartford (3.9)
8 - North Carolina (5.9)
9 - Wisconsin (5.8) ~very close; great seeding by committee
5 - Villanova (6.1)
12 - Winthrop (5.8) ~upset alert
4 - Purdue (6.0)
13 - North Texas (5.6) ~another interesting 4/13
6 - Texas Tech (6.4)
11 - Utah State (6.2) ~upset alert
3 - Arkansas (6.6)
14 - Colgate (6.0) ~very high rating for #14 seed; watch out
7 - Florida (5.5)
10 - Virginia Tech (5.6)
2 - Ohio State - (6.0) ~ very low rating for #2 seed
15 - Oral Roberts (4.2)
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1 - Illinois (7.3)
16 - Drexel (4.2)
8 - Loyola Chicago (6.8) ~ excellent rating for #8 seed; dark horse
9 - Georgia Tech (5.9)
5 - Tennessee (6.2)
12 - Oregon State (5.0)
4 - Oklahoma State (5.9)
13 - Liberty (5.9) ~big-time upset alert
6 - San Diego State (6.9) ~great rating; dark horse
11 - Syracuse (5.4)
3 - West Virginia (5.7) ~bad rating for a #3 seed
14 - Morehead State (4.9)
7 - Clemson (5.7)
10 - Rutgers (5.5)
2 - Houston (7.5)
15 - Cleveland State (4.0)
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