Utah State set to join PAC

[MLcardinalfan]

Utah State will become the 5th Mountain West team to go to the PAC. There are also rumors of UNLV considering a jump to the PAC.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/41406647/sources-utah-st-set-become-7th-member-rebuilding-pac-12

[jello1717]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

Hopefully the MWC can get back to enough teams to continue to exist.

[SilverBullet19]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

With Tulane, UTSA, USF and Memphis staying in the AAC, I think the PAC really NEEDS UNLV at this point.

Utah State kept the dream alive for pac fans, because UNLV was happy to stay put of the MWC stuck together.

I won’t be surprised if UNLV brings Nevada with it to the PAC as part of their bargaining chip.

[sherrane]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

With Tulane, UTSA, USF and Memphis staying in the AAC, I think the PAC really NEEDS UNLV at this point.

Utah State kept the dream alive for pac fans, because UNLV was happy to stay put of the MWC stuck together.

I won’t be surprised if UNLV brings Nevada with it to the PAC as part of their bargaining chip.

Do they have that firepower? Nevada is 6-23 since the 2021 season ended and Reno is the #108 US market. Jay Norvell is the only coach with a winning record there since Chris Ault retired. UNLV is the "best of the rest" of the MWC, but are they that much better than San Jose State (#6 US market)?


The goal of the Pac-12 has to be to regain power status. I believe we will see a P5 conference again, I just don't know who it will be. The Power Conferences have always had the majority of FBS (including the BCS and Bowl Alliance days). With the P4 and G6, next year when Missouri State and Delaware come up to FBS, 50% of the teams will be in the P4. The power conferences will be in the minority if or when the Montana or Dakota schools come up to FBS. With the American staying together, it has to be important for the P12 to get the best in terms of football quality and market size for the TV execs to get excited over. I'm not sure Nevada fits. I realize their men's basketball team has been good over the past two seasons or so, but football drives the revenue bus.

[SilverBullet19]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

Do they have that firepower? Nevada is 6-23 since the 2021 season ended and Reno is the #108 US market. Jay Norvell is the only coach with a winning record there since Chris Ault retired. UNLV is the "best of the rest" of the MWC, but are they that much better than San Jose State (#6 US market)?


The goal of the Pac-12 has to be to regain power status. I believe we will see a P5 conference again, I just don't know who it will be. The Power Conferences have always had the majority of FBS (including the BCS and Bowl Alliance days). With the P4 and G6, next year when Missouri State and Delaware come up to FBS, 50% of the teams will be in the P4. The power conferences will be in the minority if or when the Montana or Dakota schools come up to FBS. With the American staying together, it has to be important for the P12 to get the best in terms of football quality and market size for the TV execs to get excited over. I'm not sure Nevada fits. I realize their men's basketball team has been good over the past two seasons or so, but football drives the revenue bus.

The reason UNLV wasn’t an original target is because they have to get approval through the state for the move. They couldn’t snag UNLV under the radar like others because it would become public knowledge they were being poached before the state approved it. It was known they would be an “next round” target as they are now.

Many have speculated the state wants both UNLV and Nevada to be in a conference together. I don’t know if that has a lot of merit, considering they weren’t until the MWC took WAC schools. The powers that be are alumni of both.

You are otherwise correct, Reno is not a big market at all.

I’d love for it to be merit based taking strong programs, but that’s no longer the case. It’s all about media markets. They considered SJSU for the Bay Area market, even though traditionally SJSU isn’t very good (and the area is a dump I went there to see a game).

Supposedly analytics showed Utah State has a similar market draw to Memphis, oddly. Seems Memphis may be overshadowed by the Vols in media

I would not put it past the MWC to encourage some Big Sky schools to make a jump. Sacramento State is actually in a fairly large market (UC Davis is there too) and both programs are strong.

The Dakotas and Montanas are great programs but small market. If they jump to FBS, the media market does not set the up for P4

PAC and AAC could talk mergers. I think that’s their best shot at being P5 again. If they get UNLV they’re in a fairly similar spot to AAC in my mind. If they had snagged the AAC targets they’d be the best G6 conference but that time has passed. With the (projected) extra media money, the PAC programs have a lot of opportunity to become stronger and COULD be a P5 down the road again

[SilverBullet19]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

To add a fun wrinkle, Sac State has a committee to work toward moving to FBS. Specifically eyeing the MWC and PAC-12.

Sacramento is the 20th largest media market in the US. Although it’s a transition, I’d pounce on the market if I was the PAC

https://gvwire.com/2024/09/16/committee-hopes-to-elevate-sacramento-state-to-fbs-level-of-football/

[pietasterp]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

At this point, I wonder if Stanford and Cal wouldn't want back in to the PAC12. It would sort of make sense for all involved....

[SilverBullet19]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

At this point, I wonder if Stanford and Cal wouldn't want back in to the PAC12. It would sort of make sense for all involved....

I don’t foresee them coming back for 2 reasons:

1) As it stands, it is exceptionally expensive to leave the ACC. That could change with pending lawsuits, but it’s sitting at over $500m for Florida state to leave. By contrast, schools leaving the MWC are paying about $18m

2) the ACC media contracts pay far more than the PAC 12 contract will.

So it would be both expensive AND a revenue drop, all in the name of saving travel costs for 4-5 conference games.

[DonkeyJote]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

At this point, I wonder if Stanford and Cal wouldn't want back in to the PAC12. It would sort of make sense for all involved....

Academics matter to them, especially Stanford. Any revenue from sports to Stanford is the tiniest drop in the bucket to them compared to the revenue their research generates. And they value their athletic partnerships facilitating that research. There's a reason schools like Boise State and BYU never made it into the Pac before; because the academic schools (Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, and Washington) didn't want them in.

There's a world where the ACC collapses, Stanford goes to the Big Ten with Notre Dame (the only FBS conference besides the ACC I could see Stanford joining), and Cal maybe comes back if they can't get into the Big Ten or Big XII. But I don't think there's a world where Stanford comes back. I don't think they're going to be in a conference where them an Cal are the only 2 AAU schools.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[SilverBullet19]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

The PAC has now filed a lawsuit over the “poaching fee” imposed by the MWC. That fee was set to make the PAC pay $10m per school they swoop on.

Whether or not it’s successful, it’s strategic. The MWC was trying to entice members like UNLV to stay using the payout from the poaching and exit fees. Simply making the poaching fee uncertain provides leverage for the PAC to get UNLV, as their one time lump sum to stay in the MWC is now in question. Same for Air Force. If I recall, both were promised over $10m in payment because of the penalty income the conference expected.

If UNLV goes PAC, that’s 6 of the 12 MWC schools leaving.

Air Force would likely defect to the AAC

The conference can dissolve with a vote from 9 members, nullifying all exit fees.

[WeArePSU40]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

Ah, my low-level school I’m building up in my second dynasty.

Also, I drove up to Logan for Utah at Utah State a few weeks ago. Nice stadium in a beautiful setting with a fun little atmosphere.

[jerwoods]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

The reason UNLV wasn’t an original target is because they have to get approval through the state for the move. They couldn’t snag UNLV under the radar like others because it would become public knowledge they were being poached before the state approved it. It was known they would be an “next round” target as they are now.

Many have speculated the state wants both UNLV and Nevada to be in a conference together. I don’t know if that has a lot of merit, considering they weren’t until the MWC took WAC schools. The powers that be are alumni of both.

You are otherwise correct, Reno is not a big market at all.

I’d love for it to be merit based taking strong programs, but that’s no longer the case. It’s all about media markets. They considered SJSU for the Bay Area market, even though traditionally SJSU isn’t very good (and the area is a dump I went there to see a game).

Supposedly analytics showed Utah State has a similar market draw to Memphis, oddly. Seems Memphis may be overshadowed by the Vols in media

I would not put it past the MWC to encourage some Big Sky schools to make a jump. Sacramento State is actually in a fairly large market (UC Davis is there too) and both programs are strong.

The Dakotas and Montanas are great programs but small market. If they jump to FBS, the media market does not set the up for P4

PAC and AAC could talk mergers. I think that’s their best shot at being P5 again. If they get UNLV they’re in a fairly similar spot to AAC in my mind. If they had snagged the AAC targets they’d be the best G6 conference but that time has passed. With the (projected) extra media money, the PAC programs have a lot of opportunity to become stronger and COULD be a P5 down the road again

i live a hour from memphis not only does Tenn overshadowed them but ole miss miss st vandy and arkansas does as well memphis is a baketball school anyway

[jerwoods]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

At this point, I wonder if Stanford and Cal wouldn't want back in to the PAC12. It would sort of make sense for all involved....

stanford will stay in the ACC or go the the big ten if N Car Duke uva ND go with them

[SilverBullet19]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

UNLV has decided to stay put in the MWC, likely due to a $25-30m payout that covers their debt if they stay

PAC is looking weak.

Sac State wants in and are building a new stadium.

Honestly, I think Sac State is the best option due to media market.

PAC is reportedly considering Texas State and dumpster fire UTEP.

At this point, the MWC merger would be best in my eyes. Let it die.

[Illin Degenerate]

Re: Utah State set to join PAC

I believe the pac took this route to avoid the merger and i think they'd rather add a single team that wouldnt be one of their top choices just to get to 8 than try to get to 10-12 immediately which will shrink the share for each school.
I think once the schools announce theyre leaving their voting privileges cease and even if another school or two leaves the mwc it will likely be in the best interest of the remaining schools to pocket the exit fees and invite new members.
It looks to me like both the pac and mwc are dug in. The pac may get the poaching fee thrown out but the schools would still have to pay an exit fee and the mwc offering unlv more compensation to stay looks like it will keep them on board. Then the pac picks one from sac state and the lesser texas programs and the mwc picks how many they want from the leftovers and fcs programs.