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Originally Posted by Old Man Nathy |
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Hi all,
I've made some updates to my Draft Pick Trade Value Calculator that some of you (particular online CFM commissioners) may be using already. The tool now captures approximate value for players, allowing you to assess the fairness of trades involving both picks and/or players!
Benefits:- Allows Online CFM Commissioners to quickly see if trades are fair
- Make quick decisions in the draft when offered trades to move down
- Avoid unintentionally cheesing the CPU in Offline Franchise
- Make sure you're not getting ripped off by your competitors in Online CFM
How Does It Work?
You input data for your side of the trade and the other team's side, and the tool calculates the value of each draft pick and player and compares each side of the deal. It then tells you whether the trade is biased either way, or if it is a fair trade. It also works for future draft choices as well as the current year's.
Where Does The Draft Pick Value Data Come From?
The Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Value Matrix is a pretty famous way of calculating the value of draft choices, but more recent research suggests it overvalues early picks and undervalues middle and late round choices. This is particularly true on Madden where draft choices are a lot more predictable than in real life. For this reason, I've used the values presented here.
You'll find that the tool values mid/late round picks higher than the default Madden trade logic, but actually values higher picks (particularly those at the top of the 1st round) slightly lower than Madden's logic.
Where Does The Player Value Data Come From?
So this is where things start getting a bit more subjective. I've based the value of a player around several key factors, namely their Overall Rating; Age; Position; Years Remaining on their contract; cap space they are currently taking up for their team; position on the depth chart; and Dev Trait. I could have included lots more factors here, but these are - to me at least - the things that should impact a player's worth in Madden. I'll talk through how the approximate values for players are calculated below:
- OVR: Gives the core value of a player before any other modifiers are applied. Works on the obvious assumption that the higher a player's OVR, the more they're worth in a trade. The rough bandings (in terms of how these raw OVR value attributes align to draft picks) are 96+ players are worth more than a 1st rounder; 90-95 OVR players are worth approximately a 1st rounder; 86-89 players are worth approximately a 2nd rounder; 82-85 players a 3rd rounder; and so on and so forth.
- Age: Age is an important consideration in a player's value in Madden due to the hard cut-off of 28 when players start to regress. Therefore young players who are either still developing quickly or at their peak before the precipitous decline begins are worth considerably more.
- Position: It goes without saying that some positions are more valuable in both the real life NFL and Madden 17. A 85 rated QB is worth a hell of a lot more to a Franchise than a 85 rated Fullback. For this reason, the approximate value of a player is modified based on his position.
- Years Remaining on Contract: The main purpose of including this is the massive drop-off in trade value experienced in real-life by players in the final year of their contract.
- Cap Hit: This is one you might disagree with, as I've considered a large cap hit to be a knock against a player's trade value. This is so that players on their rookie deals get valued slightly more highly. I considered including guaranteed money on the current contract year as one of the criteria, as the player's previous team will have to eat this as dead cap space (which will affect how they think about the value received for a trade), but decided not to. Let me know if you think this should be added though.
- Depth Chart Position: Obviously, a starter is worth more to his team than a player 3rd or 4th on the depth chart.
- Development Trait: Superstar/Quick dev players accumulate XP more quickly and progress slower than their Normal/Slow dev counterparts.
All in all, you'll find that the tool values elite players higher than the default Madden trade logic, but will value mediocre players far less than Madden. If you follow the tool's assessment, you will get much more realistic trade value for average players (as opposed to ludicrous offers like 2nd round picks for 78 OVR, 29 year old DTs, for example).
You can ofcourse tweak the values in the lookup sheet of the tool itself if there is anything you strongly disagree with.
Preview Image:
Compatibility:
You'll need a spreadsheet application (Excel, Sheets, whatever). It will work on Excel version 2007 or newer, but uses some functions that make it incompatible with Excel 2003.
Link to Tool:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_j...ew?usp=sharing
Hope this tool is of use to some of you!
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@OMN
This is fantastic man truly. I will be using this chart in my offline cfm for sure. I run 32 team so I HAVE to play a part in all teams trading activity, and being a 32 cfm offline the trades are always accepted no matter what is being traded. This will help me tremendously. Thank you!
I do think that the dead money hit would be very relevant to add to the chart. I may play around with chart and see if I can add that in on my end. But yea, it would def impact a team to trade a back up QB for a 4th (hypothetical), but then eat several million on the dead money.
02-15-2017, 05:07 AM
