Madden 12 News Post

Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

02:29 PM - March 16, 2011 by RaychelSnr

Everyone's favorite video game analysts Michael Pachter is back with a prediction for Madden this season:

Quote:


	"Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities, believes the longer the lockout drags on, the more likely it is that NFL fans will become alienated. He said while Madden is a great experience for gamers, its sales are definitely correlated to the underlying popularity of the NFL, so if the popularity of the NFL suffers, it�s likely that sales of Madden will suffer. �It�s still too early to call, since the lockout is happening in March and Madden launches in August,� said Pachter. �That�s a lot of time to fix things, although most commentators don�t sound very optimistic. My guess is that a complete cancellation of the NFL season would cost Madden around 50 percent of sales, and a delay of the season would be far less impactful. If the season is only delayed a week or two and fans aren�t alienated, there would be only a very small impact; if delayed through Thanksgiving (when the holiday selling season begins in earnest), the impact would be far greater.�

I don't want to speculate on the exact amount, but Pachter would be close to right if the entire season is cancelled. EA is already planning on Madden not being a big seller this year with their forward forecasts and past performances of games under strikes and lockouts don't give one much hope for Madden to be a sales hoss this season.

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Member Comments

# 21 Bellsprout @ 03/16/11 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turftickler


	NBA Live 99 was good game, but Madden NFL 11 is far from good.

In your opinion.

I enjoy it. So do many other people.

# 22 buttsakk @ 03/16/11 10:41 PM

Pachter, once again. Has no idea about what he is talking about... Just gibberish.

# 23 stlstudios189 @ 03/17/11 10:25 AM

when i here comments like "we may only lose 2-3 games at the most" i get angry. The owners and players seem to forget that WE pay their $$$$$$$. The fans are the group getting forgotten about in this whole situatation and if they give me some half assed 10 game season this year they can go blow off.

# 24 Hova57 @ 03/17/11 11:55 AM

I think they will see a 10% hit off of launch day . I think many will hold off till the season begins because of the delay of the offseason there will be many moves to be made. Madden Dev gonna have to be on their game this year I think with the possibility of a loss already projected they will have to try to make this the best game possible to recoup some sales.

# 25 Galarius @ 03/17/11 01:23 PM

50%!!!..No WAY!If anything they might drop 10-15%, but many will need their football fix even more...?????..And NCAA sales should also go up a bit

# 26 spit_bubble @ 03/17/11 02:08 PM

The whole premise of his analysis is flawed, because there will never be a time when the season is "canceled". It's not like sometime before the the first game they are going to announce that there will be no NFL football in 2011. The scenario will play out much different than that.

If the lockout drags on into the season, then sure, sales will likely start to dip. But considering there will always be potential for them to come to an agreement and get the season going, I don't think we will see that many people keep from buying Madden '12.

# 27 raz77 @ 03/17/11 02:35 PM

I don't know about a 50% drop, but I can see a big drop. The season goes and most of the storylines, highlight reels, and a lot of the general media presence that gets people hyped for football goes with it. I know sometimes I have no interest in playing madden or any other sports game then I see something cool on ESPN or in a game and I just have to play.

# 28 waytofailself @ 03/17/11 02:50 PM

Patcher likes pulling numbers out of the wind -- his words have little credence and I'm not sure why people still listen to him. If anything, his madden prediction + nintendo dying because they haven't released a Wii HD yet prediction = probably only 1 copy of Madden 12 will sell on the Wii (and that might be more than last year with the way they've gutted the franchise on that console).

I don't think 50% is going to happen -- a lot of people who buy madden are VERY happy to simply buy a glorified roster update (note: not users of this forum obviously). They could release substantially the same game for a few years and do alright. I agree that it's possible for more people to buy Madden to replace NFL, but I'd put my money on some kind of drop off -- but more like 10%.

# 29 JustinJones @ 03/17/11 03:26 PM

if theres a lockout more ppl might buy madden just to get their nfl football fix

# 30 falconfansince81 @ 03/17/11 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justinjones.us


	if theres a lockout more ppl might buy madden just to get their nfl football fix

why would MORE people buy it? if someone doesn't buy it in the first place it's probably because they're not satisfied with the product and have the willpower to pass on it. the only circumstance i foresee an increase in sales from this situation is EA putting out a quality sim product that rivals such titles such as MLBTS and NBA 2k11.

like Raz77 said, a lot of people will get the itch to play madden after seeing a game or watching espn. if there's nothing to watch, there would be no impulse buying. while i disagree that 50% is a realistic or even researched figure, i wouldn't be surprised to see a large drop in numbers solely based off the 'itch' gamers or the ever-so-popular 'casual' gamer.

# 31 turftickler @ 03/17/11 04:15 PM

I recant my last statement of over 50% lost sales. Madden NFL sales will not drop, because there are too many people who play Madden NFL games that start to believe that whatever they seen in Madden NFL games is real. So, no Madden NFL game sales will not skip a beat. The same recycled Hot Girl graphics with weak @$$ gameplay will rule the Madden NFL world once again this year. Take that to the bank, family!

# 32 mestevo @ 03/17/11 04:20 PM

I feel like I click on 4-5 different threads and it's the same people saying the same negative things over and over.

# 33 JustinJones @ 03/17/11 08:33 PM

I'm just saying that 50% sales lost is ridiculous. it's not like were not going to have any football we'll have college and other smaller leagues (if the NFL somehow messes this labor deal up) and everyone that buys madden will probably continue to buy this game for their professional football fix. but yeah i do agree that other games will get some of their revenue if the nfl is indeed locked out

# 34 poliscilawguy @ 03/18/11 03:33 AM

Madden alienates it's own players by not taking big enough steps forward each year. I stopped buying last year. Three of my friends won't be buying this year. I'm sure that others are doing the same.

# 35 JustinJones @ 03/18/11 01:16 PM

ya me two i havn't had a madden game since 09 im completely content with my ncaa football

# 36 Raheemdadream @ 03/18/11 01:47 PM

What incentive do you have to buy a new version of Madden if there is potentially no season? There is no free agency which creates hype. I agree they will take a solid hit that will only get worse the longer the lock-out goes on.

# 37 mestevo @ 03/18/11 02:01 PM

The NFL season isn't a 'reason to buy Madden', it's merely a loss of marketing.

# 38 ODogg @ 03/18/11 07:49 PM

Something else to consider, Madden has always come out before the season begins. When Madden is released this year we won't know if there is a season or not at that point for sure so I really don't see how it's going to affect Madden sales, since a good portion of Madden copies are sold when the game initially comes out. Even later on in the year I think people would still be apt to buy it to play football even if there is no real NFL. A lot of folks buy games just to play them, not to emulate exactly the sport they are based off of. For instance I always buy FIFA, NHL and the Show but really watch very little soccer, NHL or baseball. It'll take some of Madden's sales away if there is no season but not that much and certainly nowhere near 50%.

# 39 mestevo @ 03/18/11 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MelR2000


	I think potentially the "real" threat to Madden sales is NCAA12 continuing to be even better then NCAA11.

Hard to say. I have fun with NCAA and don't even watch college football, as a result I buy both titles every year, I have never considered buying one over the other.

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

# 40 Matt Diesel @ 03/19/11 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ODogg


	Something else to consider, Madden has always come out before the season begins. When Madden is released this year we won't know if there is a season or not at that point for sure so I really don't see how it's going to affect Madden sales, since a good portion of Madden copies are sold when the game initially comes out. Even later on in the year I think people would still be apt to buy it to play football even if there is no real NFL. A lot of folks buy games just to play them, not to emulate exactly the sport they are based off of. For instance I always buy FIFA, NHL and the Show but really watch very little soccer, NHL or baseball. It'll take some of Madden's sales away if there is no season but not that much and certainly nowhere near 50%.

Good point. I never watch baseball or soccer but always get FIFA and the Show for the pure enjoyment of sports video games. Its not for the love of MLB or the 3432 pro soccer leagues.

I feel if the game is good/better by a good margin it will sell around the same clip. Else, if its nothing to write home about, sales could take a bigger hit with the absence of a NFL season.

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Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled