Werewolf LI Major League (GAME OVER!!! INDIANS--GOOD GUYS--WIN!!!)

[hoopsguy]

Here is my vote count:

ntndeacon (6)-- KWhit (212), Path12 (278), st.cronin (303), Barkeep49 (309), Lathum (310), hoopsguy (315)
Barkeep (4)-- Jonathan Ezarik (152), Passacaglia (283), PurdueBrad (291), MikeVic (302)
Path (1)-- ntndeacon (336)
st.cronin (1)-- DaddyTorgo (162)

Did not vote-- Celeval, Gonzo

I believe this is correct. ntndeacon is the choice. I will do the writeup.

Here are the final votes for yesterday - interesting that NTN didn't move his vote to try and let someone help him out at the end of the day.

[Passacaglia]

Here are the final votes for yesterday - interesting that NTN didn't move his vote to try and let someone help him out at the end of the day.

Yeah, I thought that was odd, too. I think he was just in a time crunch?

[hoopsguy]

OK, here are my initial assumptions:
- Gonzo would have gotten a vote in if he were a wolf. Willing to come back to this one tomorrow, but for today I'll argue that wolves get their votes in.
- The wolves would not have voted together unless Barkeep was a wolf.

So the easiest one to isolate with those assumptions is the Torgo vote for Cronin - it is the only one cast by someone still alive that isn't on BK/NTN.

Next question - would Torgo go on a crusade against a player on Day 1 as a wolf? What does it get him? A lot of attention if we follow his lead at some point.

For now, I'll make that Assumption #3 on the day - DaddyTorgo is not a wolf. Might not be a correct assumption, but I'll advance with it for now unless someone has compelling info to the contrary.

[hoopsguy]

So once I get to that point, I'm left with the idea that there is one wolf voting for Barkeep and one voting for NTN. This, of course, assumes that we only have two wolves. Is that 100% spelled out in the rules? I know there are at least two wolves, but going from memory I don't recall seeing that there are only two wolves.

ntndeacon (6)-- KWhit (212), Path12 (278), st.cronin (303), Barkeep49 (309), Lathum (310), hoopsguy (315)

Barkeep (4)-- Jonathan Ezarik (152), Passacaglia (283), PurdueBrad (291), MikeVic (302)

Math would suggest that I should go for the 1 in 4 shot on Barkeep vs the 1 in 6 shot on NTN. But I know I'm not a wolf, so it is only a 1 in 5 shot on NTN. And, if Barkeep is a wolf then there are almost certainly two wolves in this group. I think this possibility is enough for me to pursue the 20% shot instead of the 25% shot - there is a reasonable chance that the 20% is actually a 40%.

[MikeVic]

Thanks for the answer hoops.

[DaddyTorgo]

my vote will have to go final in another hour. i'm going out to dinner and not sure when i'll be back, although i assume it should be before the deadline. but i will have a final vote i'm comfortable with first.

[KWhit]

my vote will have to go final in another hour. i'm going out to dinner and not sure when i'll be back, although i assume it should be before the deadline. but i will have a final vote i'm comfortable with first.

I have to make a possible final vote too cause I don't know if I'll be back by lynch or not either.

And I just don't have a clue who to vote for.

[KWhit]

MikeVic, you around?

[KWhit]

You have made a couple of comments about me being suspicious... Any reason why that is?

[MikeVic]

I'm here.

[PurdueBrad]

Hey guys, I've read through the last few pages several times and am, like yesterday, torn with how to vote. Right now, based on the give and take that Cronin put out there, I'm leaning towards a vote that way. I've got softball playoffs tonight, so I may not make it back for the deadline. Right now:

I vote Cronin

[MikeVic]

You have made a couple of comments about me being suspicious... Any reason why that is?

Nothing today, but yesterday I was going on NTN not being a wolf. And both you and path voted for him before anyone else, so it got me being suspicious. That's all I have though.

[hoopsguy]

By the way, please feel free to interrupt my stream-of-consciousness voting thoughts :)

ntndeacon (6)-- KWhit (212), Path12 (278), st.cronin (303), Barkeep49 (309), Lathum (310), hoopsguy (315)


The Barkeep vote here can easily be argued as self-defense. Other votes here were positioned as votes to help keep me around. Time to go pull posts on these to see what people said.

KWhit - voted based on low activity (although right in line with usual NTN play) and not picking a side in BK/Hoops argument

Path - no reason given in voting post, but post #286 explains that he wanted to help take heat off of me

Cronin - moves vote, says he believes we will benefit from having both BK and me around. BK had four votes at that point, this now brought it to 4-3 between BK and NTN.

Barkeep - self-defense, NTN is dangerous under-the-radar player

Lathum - "lets keep it close", post comes in at exact same time as BK's. Sounds like he wanted to force the tie here with lots of time remaining.

Hoops - out for duration, has to get vote in now, want to put it on one of leaders to not waste vote. Trusts BK more.

[KWhit]

Nothing today, but yesterday I was going on NTN not being a wolf. And both you and path voted for him before anyone else, so it got me being suspicious. That's all I have though.

Heh. If everybody who had a screw-up vote on day 1 was a wolf, there'd be no villagers for them to eat.

:)

[Lathum]

i find your play intresting lathum. you're voting with me, yet arguing against me.

I think I have been clear why.

[Barkeep49]

The most interesting thing to me was that ntn didn't vote for me to save himself. I'm not sure we're going to learn a whole lot about the day's lynch at this point in the game. In fact in general I think voting patterns are normally useless until we have caught a wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

sweet jesus that's some beautiful analysis hoops.

i am indeed a villager. like we were discussing...just had a gut feeling on cronin.

i still have my gut feeling on cronin, but am willing to go elsewhere if there's no support for it, if it is necessary or shows something good via your analysis hoops

[Barkeep49]

DOLA -- I will also be making a tentative vote. I should be home before deadline, but if the juveniles of my city have been particularly unruly it's possible I'd be home too late.

[hoopsguy]

Highest reward play, as I see it, is to vote for Barkeep here. That way we learn if there is any real value to extract from votes yesterday. People have commented that there was a surge towards NTN, which is often associated with wolf movement. And putting an early vote on me isn't the dumbest idea, as I'll usually talk enough to give you a reason to move it later.

Only problem with this is that it contradicts the play I made yesterday, where I stated that I edged towards trust on BK based on his unconventional play. Different day, different info to evaluate, all that good stuff, but I still struggle internally with pulling a 180 degree turn.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, if voting records have minimal worth, I'm willing to listen to other avenues to pursue to guide the vote here.

[KWhit]

Barkeep, if voting records have minimal worth, I'm willing to listen to other avenues to pursue to guide the vote here.

No kidding. Me too. I'm at a loss right now.

[MikeVic]

The only vote I can make right now would be cronin, and that's because he voted for me and I know I'm not a wolf. But of course that's easy to see through my eyes. Other than that, I don't know who else to vote for right now.

[DaddyTorgo]

you could vote with my gut?

[KWhit]

I think I'm leaning toward voting Path or st.cronin as they were the 1st two to follow me onto ntndeacon, and I agree that one out of the ntndeacon voters is likely a wolf.

[KWhit]

I think I'm leaning toward voting Path or st.cronin as they were the 1st two to follow me onto ntndeacon, and I agree that one out of the ntndeacon voters is likely a wolf.

Of course voting for path would possibly be just throwing my vote away (it would be vote #1 on him) and voting for st.cronin puts him way ahead, and I think it's better for us if we keep the vote close until the end.

[DaddyTorgo]

I think I'm leaning toward voting Path or st.cronin as they were the 1st two to follow me onto ntndeacon, and I agree that one out of the ntndeacon voters is likely a wolf.

well cronin already has 2 votes

[KWhit]

well cronin already has 2 votes

This is what I have. Is this right?

Cronin - Torgo (401), Lathum (456), PurdueBrad (511)
MikeVic - Cronin (377)
Torgo - Path (426)
JE - Pass (452)

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, I don't think it would be a throw-away, as Cronin is the only person with multiple votes. People are likely to consolidate around a second candidate rather than making this a Cronin runaway.

Votes as of Post #525:
Cronin - Torgo (401), Lathum (456), Purdue (511)
MikeVic - Cronin (377)
Torgo - Path (426)
JE - Pass (452)

[DaddyTorgo]

and cronin also has others voting him based on evidence other than the evidence that i cited that went along with my initial gut-feeling.

[DaddyTorgo]

that's right 3. i forgot about the brad-vote

[KWhit]

KWhit, I don't think it would be a throw-away, as Cronin is the only person with multiple votes. People are likely to consolidate around a second candidate rather than making this a Cronin runaway.


Makes sense. I'm going with path based on my earlier stated reasons. I will likely be back before lynch, but may not, so this might be final.


VOTE PATH12

[Barkeep49]

Highest reward play, as I see it, is to vote for Barkeep here. That way we learn if there is any real value to extract from votes yesterday. People have commented that there was a surge towards NTN, which is often associated with wolf movement. And putting an early vote on me isn't the dumbest idea, as I'll usually talk enough to give you a reason to move it later.

Only problem with this is that it contradicts the play I made yesterday, where I stated that I edged towards trust on BK based on his unconventional play. Different day, different info to evaluate, all that good stuff, but I still struggle internally with pulling a 180 degree turn.
Let's just play it out. I will show up as a villager, so you learn that it was another typical day 1 villager vs villager situation. Obviously there is value if I'm a wolf, but I'm not so there's not.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, if voting records have minimal worth, I'm willing to listen to other avenues to pursue to guide the vote here.

No kidding. Me too. I'm at a loss right now.

Well yes I'm at a loss too, quite frankly, hence my not having voted yet.

[Lathum]

DT's post are making him look more and more like someone who has been busted

[Barkeep49]

Ok, I'm going to go ahead and vote. I don't really like anyone, but the closest to anything at the moment is Mike Vic and his confidence, as has been shown, in multiple people, at least two of whom (me and ntn), I know to be villagers. So much confidence in villagers on Day 1 suggests to me it could be a rookie mistake.

Vote MikeVic

[Barkeep49]

DT's post are making him look more and more like someone who has been busted
????

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #535:
Cronin - Torgo (401), Lathum (456), Purdue (511)
MikeVic - Cronin (377), Barkeep (535)
Torgo - Path (426)
JE - Pass (452)
Path - KWhit (532)

Not voted - MikeVic, Hoops, JE, Gonzo

[Lathum]

????

talking about gut feeling, willing to change his vote, saying he has been onto cronin. His posts reek to me.

[DaddyTorgo]

you reek to me lathum.

and you know solid WW strategy is always vote lathum. maybe i have smoked something out after all.

[MikeVic]

Ok, I'm going to go ahead and vote. I don't really like anyone, but the closest to anything at the moment is Mike Vic and his confidence, as has been shown, in multiple people, at least two of whom (me and ntn), I know to be villagers. So much confidence in villagers on Day 1 suggests to me it could be a rookie mistake.


I don't get where you guys are getting the impression that I had so much confidence in who the villagers are? To help with day one voting, I had to justify my votes. That's all it was. Today I still trust hoops as a villager because he's helped so much.

[Barkeep49]

Hoops helps whether he's a villager or a wolf. It's just what kind of help that is :)

[Lathum]

you reek to me lathum.

and you know solid WW strategy is always vote lathum. maybe i have smoked something out after all.

oh my god.

that post reeks the worst of all.

how desperate are you?

[PurdueBrad]

If I make it back in time and want to change my vote, do I edit (thought I read that we shouldn't edit) or make another post stating unvote and put in new vote?

[DaddyTorgo]

I don't get where you guys are getting the impression that I had so much confidence in who the villagers are? To help with day one voting, I had to justify my votes. That's all it was. Today I still trust hoops as a villager because he's helped so much.

i think the problem people are having, and one that you will come to appreciate is that you are overstating your degree of trust.

ie...you say "i trust hoops is a villager" when you mean "he's slightly more likely to be a villager than a wolf"

the word "trust" in a WW game is very heavy. as are all declarative statements "i know" etc.

[MikeVic]

Well, I'm going to be away from a computer for a couple hours. But I'll be back before the 10EST deadline to vote. Right now it would go to cronin, not just out of self-preservation, but because he voted for me... and I know I'm not a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Hoops helps whether he's a villager or a wolf. It's just what kind of help that is :)

This is true. But I can't write Chief Rum's PMs for him to say that I help, which ought to be worth something at this point.

[DaddyTorgo]

out now. should be back before deadline

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, are you convinced that both Cronin and Torgo are wolves? I understand your premise, but if you are convinced that Torgo is bad does it automatically follow that Cronin is bad? I'm wondering why you are choosing this order for your votes when you seem very convinced that Torgo is a wolf based on your posts over the last couple of hours.

[Lathum]

Lathum, are you convinced that both Cronin and Torgo are wolves? I understand your premise, but if you are convinced that Torgo is bad does it automatically follow that Cronin is bad? I'm wondering why you are choosing this order for your votes when you seem very convinced that Torgo is a wolf based on your posts over the last couple of hours.

It would be impossible for me to be convinced of anything at this point.

Based on his recent posts I am suspiscous of DT however at this point it may be a wasted vote.

[path12]

I don't get where you guys are getting the impression that I had so much confidence in who the villagers are? To help with day one voting, I had to justify my votes. That's all it was. Today I still trust hoops as a villager because he's helped so much.


Jack Parkman says: "Welcome to Werewolf!"

[path12]

If I make it back in time and want to change my vote, do I edit (thought I read that we shouldn't edit) or make another post stating unvote and put in new vote?

You don't edit posts. You make a new post that

UNVOTE (NAME)
VOTE (NAME)

and that will do it.

[path12]

I think I'm leaning toward voting Path or st.cronin as they were the 1st two to follow me onto ntndeacon, and I agree that one out of the ntndeacon voters is likely a wolf.

Jack Parkman was pretty clear that his vote was to take heat off of Pedro at the time. Jack Parkman thinks this is scant evidence for a vote.

[path12]

Dammit. Switched tenses again.

[path12]

So the easiest one to isolate with those assumptions is the Torgo vote for Cronin - it is the only one cast by someone still alive that isn't on BK/NTN.

Next question - would Torgo go on a crusade against a player on Day 1 as a wolf? What does it get him? A lot of attention if we follow his lead at some point.

For now, I'll make that Assumption #3 on the day - DaddyTorgo is not a wolf.

Jack Parkman would like to point out that a throwaway vote on day 1 is actually not the kind of thing that usually gathers a lot of attention. The scrutiny comes in the main candidates votes. Jack Parkman thinks the best time to come out against a fellow wolf is day 1, especially if that fellow wolf is not gathering enough attention to actually be lynched.

There is also the fact that DT has come at Lathum much harder than he did with Cronin.

Jack Parkman concludes that Assumption #3 is a shaky one.

[hoopsguy]

Path, I thought DT's play was much more aggressive than a "throw-away" Day 1 vote. The bold nature of it almost begged for scrutiny. What I'm saying is that I agree with your concept as you laid it out, but don't see DT's play in quite the same light.

[Lathum]

OK, I feel strong enough

UNVOTE ST.CRONIN
VOTE DADDYTORGO

[MikeVic]

i think the problem people are having, and one that you will come to appreciate is that you are overstating your degree of trust.

ie...you say "i trust hoops is a villager" when you mean "he's slightly more likely to be a villager than a wolf"

the word "trust" in a WW game is very heavy. as are all declarative statements "i know" etc.

The "trust" and "know" are kind of like for the time being. If I were to say "I'm definitely positive that from this day on cronin is a villager," that would be my equivalent to "trust" and "know."

[hoopsguy]

Right now MikeVic loses all tie-breakers, since he got the early vote today.

Despite some of his posts that I dredged up earlier today, I lean towards thinking that Mike is on our side, playing an open and honest first game. I would prefer that he is not lynched today.

So that leaves Daddy Torgo and St. Cronin - I could go with another candidate, but we are getting later in the process and I'm ready to see what happens when we turn the heat up a little bit. I think Torgo's reasons for suspecting Cronin are kind of thin (vote post too quickly after saying he was reading) but Cronin's defense was also a concern (not playing in the spirit of the game).

VOTE CRONIN

[MikeVic]

I got an answer from ChiefRum, and I don't want to say too much regarding my confusion. I don't want to make it seem like I'm breaking the rules. But based on the response I received, I think the only thing I can really say is that the wording in the PM I received made me think two words were interchangable, when in reality they aren't.

I don't know if that helps, but like I said, I don't want to me labelled a cheater or rule-breaker.

I think right now, I have to

VOTE CRONIN

to help save myself. I'll try to get back on nearer the deadline again.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I don't have a good feel on anyone and I'm not really sure what's been learned so far. I'm off tomorrow so I'll have some time to really go through the thread and hopefully have some ideas. But since I have to vote for someone now, I'll throw this out just to keep it close.

VOTE DADDYTORGO

[hoopsguy]

Votes heading into the final hour (current as of Post #560):

Cronin - Torgo (401), Purdue (511), Hoops (558), MikeVic (559)
Torgo - Path (426), Lathum (556), JE (560)
MikeVic - Cronin (377), Barkeep (535)
JE - Pass (452)
Path - KWhit (532)

Not voted - Gonzo

[Gonzo]

I'm suspicious of St. Cronin, but not really enough to vote for him. I'm not even sure if I should vote for DaddyTorgo, but then again I have to vote today.

VOTE DADDY TORGO

[hoopsguy]

If Cronin gets back, he can save himself here.
If not, then ... time to see if there were any earlier votes that aren't there now.

[KWhit]

At this point, I trust MikeVic and am suspicious of anybody who has their vote on him. So between BK and Cronin, I gotta vote for the guy who is actually in contention tonight.

UNVOTE PATH12
VOTE ST.CRONIN

[MikeVic]

Unfortunately I have to leave for the next couple of hours. I won't be here for the deadline, and so I'll leave my vote on cronin.

[hoopsguy]

Updated votes:
Cronin - Torgo (401), Purdue (511), Hoops (558), MikeVic (559), KWhit (563)
Torgo - Path (426), Lathum (556), JE (560), Gonzo (562)
MikeVic - Cronin (377), Barkeep (535)
JE - Pass (452)

And there are no earlier votes on Torgo or Cronin prior to #401 where Torgo votes Cronin. So Cronin would need help - can't just move his vote - to avoid a lynch this evening.

[Lathum]

KWhit, why do you trust mike?

[MikeVic]

I'm waiting for a ride, so I'll be on until they come get me.

[Barkeep49]

Man I don't really feel like I understand why anyone is on anyone. I'm going to go ahead and unvote MikeVic since it doesn't look like we're going in that direction and I see no need to keep a symbolic vote there. But I'm not really sure where my vote will land.

Unvote MikeVic

[path12]

Jack Parkman acknowledges that he has been absent for awhile staring into a mirror to determine that, although it is a very close call, Jack Parkman is going to insist on being photographed on his right side.

While Jack Parkman is tempted to switch his vote to Cronin, Jack Parkman is (due to Jack Parkman's incredible intelligence) almost more interested to see how the last half hour comes down, especially since Jack Parkman does not have much to go on this early.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I've thought it over and I've decided I don't like the way cronin talked about the step ups, including having lied about whether or not he steppd it up yesterday. I'm going to go that direction.

Vote st.cronin

[Barkeep49]

path I'll just say that I've really enjoyed your role playing this game.

[hoopsguy]

Hmmm, I was definitely hoping that at least one of our candidates would be around at the deadline to take part in the conversation :(

[path12]

path I'll just say that I've really enjoyed your role playing this game.

Being a consummate entertainer (among his other skills), Jack Parkman is not surprised, yet is gracious enough to accept the praise, though Jack Parkman knows that it is merely his due.

[Passacaglia]

Checking in. Not sure if I will catch up in time to change my vote.

[hoopsguy]

Being a consummate entertainer (among his other skills), Jack Parkman is not surprised, yet is gracious enough to accept the praise, though Jack Parkman knows that it is merely his due.

I need a clapping smilie for this.

[path12]

Checking in. Not sure if I will catch up in time to change my vote.

Jack Parkman could read this thread in three and one half minutes.

[hoopsguy]

A review of posts by the two players indicates that Cronin is unlikely to be back while Torgo hoped (but was not sure) he would be back before the deadline.

[Gonzo]

Jack Parkman could read this thread in three and one half minutes.

But alas, the rest of us ballplayers have not the same skill at speed-reading that Jack Parkman possesses.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm back. Anyone wanna tell me quick-like if I need to move my vote based on stuff that's happened?

[hoopsguy]

Pass, if you have a strong inkling that Torgo is more guilty than Cronin I would be willing to change my vote. But it has to be fast ...

I don't think either of the two parties are likely to be our seer, which is my biggest worry heading down the stretch with absentee lynch candidates.

[path12]

But alas, the rest of us ballplayers have not the same skill at speed-reading that Jack Parkman possesses.

*sigh* Jack Parkman's innate superiority over his fellow humans is Jack Parkman's cross to bear.

[hoopsguy]

i'm back. Anyone wanna tell me quick-like if I need to move my vote based on stuff that's happened?

Vote stands at 6-4, with Cronin losing the tie-breaker.

[Passacaglia]

We're tied 5-5 with 6 minutes left? Geez.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, if you have a strong inkling that Torgo is more guilty than Cronin I would be willing to change my vote. But it has to be fast ...

I don't think either of the two parties are likely to be our seer, which is my biggest worry heading down the stretch with absentee lynch candidates.

My inclination is to vote for cronin, since Torgo feels so strongly about it, and it's his butt if he's wrong. But I read the thread pretty quickly. Does that sound fair?

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm here!

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I show 6-4. Do you have something different?

Cronin - Torgo (401), Purdue (511), Hoops (558), MikeVic (559), KWhit (563), Barkeep (571)
Torgo - Path (426), Lathum (556), JE (560), Gonzo (562)
MikeVic - Cronin (377)
JE - Pass (452)

[Passacaglia]

No, hoops, sorry, I counted BK's vote wrong.

[hoopsguy]

My inclination is to vote for cronin, since Torgo feels so strongly about it, and it's his butt if he's wrong. But I read the thread pretty quickly. Does that sound fair?

Only if DT was the seer - his suspicion started on Day 1 so he could have scanned him Day 2 to follow his gut. But we would have to lynch DT first to learn that, and right now we are on Cronin.

[DaddyTorgo]

it is my butt if I was wrong. But others have also said cronin has made some questionable plays already this game, so I feel okay about it.

in case I die I reiterate: we need to get the step-ups thing sorted out and not let it distract us from normal-ww play.

on that note: am I stepping up again hoops?

[hoopsguy]

DT, I had asked Lathum to fill in for you since, as you pointed out, we don't learn anything new about us relative to each other with you going again tonight.

[Passacaglia]

Only if DT was the seer - his suspicion started on Day 1 so he could have scanned him Day 2 to follow his gut. But we would have to lynch DT first to learn that, and right now we are on Cronin.

It doesn't look like I can save cronin anyway.

[DaddyTorgo]

hoops

i'm not the seer.

i'm hoping the seer has scanned cronin though and agrees, since there has generally been more "vote for cronin" reasoning given than "don't vote for cronin".

Guess the seer could have scanned someone else though. But if the seer scanned cronin and he was innocent, I think someone would have made a bigger push at me/to keep cronin unlynched.

[Passacaglia]

Anyway, I think this vote seems fine. I don't know who to trust in this, but I'm interested in what happens.

[path12]

It doesn't look like I can save cronin anyway.

Would you if you could?

[DaddyTorgo]

oh that's right hoops. Thanks for reminding me

[Passacaglia]

Would you if you could?

No. Like I said, my gut was saying to vote for cronin -- I don't think DT as a wolf would come out against cronin so much as a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

And with that, I am out. Hope we're right!

[Chief Rum]

Time.

Votes being tabulated.

[DaddyTorgo]

that was really the crux of my play. I definitely felt in my gut cronin is wolf and saw evidence of it, but I made a stink to try to get the seer to scan him, figuring then the seer could either support me on d2 or push against someone else/push for cronin's innocence.

havn't seen either...so either the seer scanned someone else or the seer scanned cronin and he's guilty and the seer sees no reason to reveal with me doing the pushing

and if i'm wrong, i'm just a marginally useful normal dude anyways

[Lathum]

i stepped it up

[path12]

Jack Parkman wishes the results would hurry up, since Jack Parkman's wife is out at book club and Jack Parkman is itching to play FM.

[KWhit]

Jack Parkman makes me laugh.

[DaddyTorgo]

Jack Parkman wishes the results would hurry up, since Jack Parkman's wife is out at book club and Jack Parkman is itching to play FM.

jack parkman plays FM? which club does jack parkman support?

[Lathum]

Jack Parkman makes me laugh.

+1

[path12]

jack parkman plays FM? which club does jack parkman support?

Jack Parkman is on the brink of taking Notts County to the Premiership. Of course, it is not a surprise due to Jack Parkman's amazing leadership skills.

[hoopsguy]

Hard to believe that Jack Parkman was traded in the second movie if he was as entertaining as this version.

[path12]

Hard to believe that Jack Parkman was traded in the second movie if he was as entertaining as this version.

Jack Parkman is never traded. He held out because of the poor quality of the script.

[Chief Rum]

Here is my vote count:

st.cronin (6)-- DaddyTorgo (401), PurdueBrad (511), hoopsguy (558), MikeVic (559), KWhit (564), Barkeep49 (571)
DaddyTorgo (4)-- path12 (426), Lathum (556), Jonathan Ezarik (560), Gonzo (562)
MikeVic (1)-- st.cronin (377)
Jonathan Ezarik (1)-- Passacaglia (452)

st.cronin has been selected by the team to hit the links early. Writeup coming.

[Chief Rum]

Single best word I have typed involving this game was "egotistical" in someone's PM description. Resulting hilarity has been very funny to read. :)

[DaddyTorgo]

note: if cronin is a wolf then it's likely one of the other wolves is on me...particularly at the point where it looked like it was getting close.

[path12]

Single best word I have typed involving this game was "egotistical" in someone's PM description.

Jack Parkman hates egotists and wishes they could be as humble as Jack Parkman.

[DaddyTorgo]

*Ivan Molina is playing FM*

[Chief Rum]

Despite the win in last night's action, the clubhouse seemed divided today over the tumultuous loss of the team's two best catchers. There were accusations of some leading others astray and paranoia spread.

A rookie got some early votes for bad word choice. A couple others got votes for taking unpopular stances or being quick to attack. But the team saved its ire for the quickest and most opinionated of them all. And Eddie Harris wasn't about to apologize for it.

"All y'all can kiss my sweet, oily behind," he drawled. Without another word, he packed up his gear, including several bottles of cooking oil, hair gel and a can of jalapenos, and left the clubhouse. With Taylor and Harris gone, the clubhouse is getting younger by the day.

It's also getting less "good". Harris--aka st.cronin--was a simple villager.

NIGHT ACTIONS COMING

[DaddyTorgo]

aargh

[Lathum]

note: if cronin is a wolf then it's likely one of the other wolves is on me...particularly at the point where it looked like it was getting close.

LMAO

[DaddyTorgo]

let the stone-ing commence if that is the will of my fellow villagers.

[PurdueBrad]

CRAP!!! I was sure he was a wolf. I'm terrible at this game!!!

[Barkeep49]

CRAP!!! I was sure he was a wolf. I'm terrible at this game!!!
Welcome to WW :)

[hoopsguy]

Not shocked, and a little relieved that we didn't lose something like the bodyguard.

[PurdueBrad]

Welcome to WW :)

Thanks, it's fun and yet incredibly frustrating as well! Hopefully we do better tomorrow. :(

[hoopsguy]

Glad you are having fun, Purdue. Now please coach us up for the upcoming game.

[PurdueBrad]

Yeah, really. I'm thinking I need to walk into the shower room, throw a bunch of bats, and say that "we're all a bunch of lolligaggers." Of course, that's from the wrong film, but we can forgive poor Lou Brown (hmmm, Jack Parkman must be rubbing off on Lou Brown!) some mistakes in his old age.

[Passacaglia]

Damn. Sorry, cronin.

[Passacaglia]

Not shocked, and a little relieved that we didn't lose something like the bodyguard.

I'll read more about what happened tomorrow, so if you feel I can find my answer then, you don't have to answer me, but -- why did you have your vote on cronin in the first place, if you were so willing to move it?

[Lathum]

If I die I want it known my reason for voting Cronin early then switching off was to get a reaction from DT and it worked

[hoopsguy]

I'll read more about what happened tomorrow, so if you feel I can find my answer then, you don't have to answer me, but -- why did you have your vote on cronin in the first place, if you were so willing to move it?

When I voted I had talked myself into believing Torgo over Cronin, based on my Day 1 vote analysis. But I was worried about the movement over to Cronin. And after I realized that he was not going to be back before the deadline I was willing to listen to an argument to go the other way. Not blindly switch - I had plenty of time to do that - but I wasn't locked in come hell or high water.

I still thought there was a better chance Cronin was a wolf than Torgo, but as the deadline approached I was worried we might be shipping off our seer without giving him a chance to tell us what he knew.

[Passacaglia]

When I voted I had talked myself into believing Torgo over Cronin, based on my Day 1 vote analysis. But I was worried about the movement over to Cronin. And after I realized that he was not going to be back before the deadline I was willing to listen to an argument to go the other way. Not blindly switch - I had plenty of time to do that - but I wasn't locked in come hell or high water.

I still thought there was a better chance Cronin was a wolf than Torgo, but as the deadline approached I was worried we might be shipping off our seer without giving him a chance to tell us what he knew.

That makes me feel a little better. I was probably in the same boat -- could have been convinced to vote Torgo, but leaning to cronin. I don't feel so responsible for cronin's death anymore -- I doubt I would have been able to form an argument compelling enough to convince you.

[Chief Rum]

Harry Doyle: That's twelve straight balls from Vaughan, loading the bases. How can these guys keep laying off pitches this close?!?

***

Fortunately for the Tribe, it's not Harris's turn to pitch. Kettner gets the ball. He is just throwing his warmup pitches when the chop-chop of a helicopter begins to filter into the stadium. Everyone looks up to see a dazzling gold-plated chopper dropping into centerfield! What is this?

The side door opens and Hugh Hefner, followed by five Playboy models, came jumping out. They run over to where Roger Dorn is standing, at third base taking infield.

"This is the moment you have been waiting for, Roger," said Hefner. "I don't have much time left, and I need an heir to all my fortune and fame. I always loved how self-centered and good looking you were while playing the game. With that sort of attitude, you'll fit right into the mansion and be the new face of Playboy!"

With a straight face, Dorn says, "I always knew this would happen to me one day. Let's go, Hef!"

Preening for the cameras one more time (mugging more than the models), Dorn tosses his glove behind his back to Lou Brown, does an "Olé" bow to the crowd (fittingly a practice groundball skipped right past him at that point) and gets into the chopper with Hef.

Apparently, Rachel Phelps was the best lay Hefner ever had, and now she's calling in favors. Dorn has, umm, retired. And MikeVic is out of the game.

After Dorn leaves, the game gets under way. It is a tight one for most of it, as Kettner uses his mediocre stuff to try to keep the Indians in the game.

But this game isn't about Kettner (or Dorn). Pedro is red hot and is showing it. With the score tied, 2-2, in the ninth, Cerrano blasts a shot off of the left field wall for a game-winning double, scoring Tanaka from second.

He is tonight's champion. But the team has lost another of its veteran players.

But all is well when you go to sleep, because the Yanks are shut out by some kid on the Tigers named Verlander. You have tied the Yanks for the division lead!

Will there be a team at the end to enjoy it?

DAY THREE HAS NOW BEGUN.

THE DEADLINE IS THURSDAY, 10 P.M. EST/7 P.M. PDT

[hoopsguy]

Chief, any role associated with Dorn/MikeVic?

Mike, hope to see you in another game sometime soon.

[Lathum]

well it seems like they are gunning for the seer

[hoopsguy]

Also, I'll continue to maintain that talent is not random until given a reason to believe otherwise.

Hef took a second-rater like Dorn and left Parkman? Go figure ...

[KWhit]

well it seems like they are gunning for the seer

Yep. CR, are roles revealed upon death (or whatever)?

[PurdueBrad]

Alright, I guess I'll make enemies by asking this/thinking this out loud. This is the second game in a row that Pedro/Hoops has saved our butt. Why wouldn't the wolves have targeted him on the second night??? I may be off base and I'm not trying to cast a vote against Hoops but obviously knocking out people is more important than making us lose games. If that wolves can play 'nice' for a couple games, they freely get to pick people off. So I guess I'm asking, what possible reason is there for the wolves not having picked Hoops?

[Chief Rum]

Chief, any role associated with Dorn/MikeVic?

Mike, hope to see you in another game sometime soon.

Regular ballplayer.

I am also now updating the player list in Post #3 (didn't have time yesterday), so you can go there if I forget something in the writeup.

[PurdueBrad]

I'll go out on the limb early and probably get bitten (hehe, pun intended I guess) later:

vote Hoopsguy

[path12]

Hef has nothing on Jack Parkman. His masculinity radiates and actually seems to draw fabulous women to Jack Parkman's side. The Jack Parkman mansion dwarfs the Playboy mansion, plus has 17 life size busts of Jack Parkman, one of which shows Jack Parkman giving bread to starving children.

Jack Parkman dares the wolves to attack. They don't have a chance against such a superhuman specimen as Jack Parkman and they know it.

Now, Jack Parkman must retire to try and replace the disloyal D C that decided to sign with another team.

[KWhit]

Alright, I guess I'll make enemies by asking this/thinking this out loud. This is the second game in a row that Pedro/Hoops has saved our butt. Why wouldn't the wolves have targeted him on the second night??? I may be off base and I'm not trying to cast a vote against Hoops but obviously knocking out people is more important than making us lose games. If that wolves can play 'nice' for a couple games, they freely get to pick people off. So I guess I'm asking, what possible reason is there for the wolves not having picked Hoops?

They probably picked up on the signs I did that suggested that MikeVic was the seer and took him out instead.

[Lathum]

Alright, I guess I'll make enemies by asking this/thinking this out loud. This is the second game in a row that Pedro/Hoops has saved our butt. Why wouldn't the wolves have targeted him on the second night??? I may be off base and I'm not trying to cast a vote against Hoops but obviously knocking out people is more important than making us lose games. If that wolves can play 'nice' for a couple games, they freely get to pick people off. So I guess I'm asking, what possible reason is there for the wolves not having picked Hoops?

I think it was because they thought MikeVic was the seer based on his language, allthough the longer hoops lives the more suspicous I become of him.

[hoopsguy]

Alright, I guess I'll make enemies by asking this/thinking this out loud. This is the second game in a row that Pedro/Hoops has saved our butt. Why wouldn't the wolves have targeted him on the second night??? I may be off base and I'm not trying to cast a vote against Hoops but obviously knocking out people is more important than making us lose games. If that wolves can play 'nice' for a couple games, they freely get to pick people off. So I guess I'm asking, what possible reason is there for the wolves not having picked Hoops?

A few of reasons:
1. I can only do it three times
2. If I don't do it, someone else may be more talented than they are
3. Taking out the seer helps protect them during the day, which in turn gives them more shots to mess up the night/game action
4. Potentially concerned that the bodyguard would be on me, given that I was the star last night and was going back to the dish again today

[hoopsguy]

"few of" was originally "couple of", but then I had more reasons - damn no edit rule.

[KWhit]

"few of" was originally "couple of", but then I had more reasons - damn no edit rule.


"A few of reasons!"

HAHAHAHHAH

You suck!




Nevermind.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I may be off base and I'm not trying to cast a vote against Hoops

I'll go out on the limb early and probably get bitten (hehe, pun intended I guess) later:

vote Hoopsguy

So what changed your mind in that minute that passed between posts?

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, that's cool and I appreciate the candor (wasn't sure if people take offense to being accused/implied). I will definitely be doing a lot of considering/reconsidering between now and tomorrow evening.

I guess the one thing tempting me not to switch, in addition to my thoughts above, is that you have already stepped it up twice, which means that you've only got one left, so it means as this winds down you may only be able to help us one more time. I guess meaning in a sense that you would be a sacrificial lamb rather than risk kicking out a guy that has two or three helps left.

[PurdueBrad]

So what changed your mind in that minute that passed between posts?

J.E., that's a good question and I hope I answered that in my post just above. Cost/benefit analysis of wrongly knocking off a guy that has two or three helps left vs. the same risk but only losing one help. This was a tough decision because Hoops has been SOOOOO helpful but like I said, I can see the value of helping us win a couple games while freely getting us to pick ourselves off and then picking off yet another through the wolf vote each night. Right now, this is the most sure I've been of anybody over the three days.

[st.cronin]

You people suck at this game.

[st.cronin]

I didn't want to get too much into this, but this has happened to me since the last board upgrade, if I have multiple tabs open in firefox - hit submit, switch tabs before the post goes through, the post doesn't go through until I switch back to the other tab.

Anyway, good luck village.

[hoopsguy]

Purdue, I can appreciate that thought process. The problem is that we don't know how the wolves "step it up" works. Are they trying to get us a loss or are they staying out of the way? The reason we don't know is that I've been able to hit opposing pitching the last two nights.

I would like to have the opportunity to do so again tomorrow night, as I think the chances are pretty good I'll win us another game.

And, if I'm still alive on Day 4, I'll tell you that I'm a villager and that we can't afford to lose any more villagers at that point in the game. Just putting it out there now so you know what to expect. I don't like being voted off by my fellow villagers, as either a wolf or a villager, because either way I've failed.

If there is significant concern about my allegiance, the seer will be able to resolve that for us. I'm not telling him to scan me - go find us a turncoat, please - but putting that out there in case the person who is the seer is concerned about my play.

[MikeVic]

We can't anything post when dead/lynched, right?

[Lathum]

If hoops is alive day 4 he will have my vote

[Lathum]

We can't anything post when dead/lynched, right?

not in terms of the game.

[MikeVic]

Ok. Then I'd just like to say that this was fascinating, and I'm glad I tried werewolf. :) I don't see time upcoming to devote to another game, but maybe once my fantasy football drafts are over I'll sign up for another game.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

If hoops is alive day 4 he will have my vote

This makes no sense to me. Why should the wolves go after him now if they know we're going to take him out ourselves in a couple of days?

[hoopsguy]

We can't anything post when dead/lynched, right?

Good luck, team?

Seriously, you should never reveal game-related content that will impact people's decisions going forward once you are dead.

[Lathum]

This makes no sense to me. Why should the wolves go after him now if they know we're going to take him out ourselves in a couple of days?

ummm.

because he's hoops

[MikeVic]

Good luck, team?

Seriously, you should never reveal game-related content that will impact people's decisions going forward once you are dead.

I'm not dead! I've won the lottery. ;) I was glad to get Dorn as a character because I found him funny in the movies.

[hoopsguy]

ummm.

because he's hoops

Let's see if we can get ourselves a wolf tomorrow before we worry too much about what Day 4 will bring.

I understand your perspective. Heck, I've even commented on it in the "Pet Peeves" thread. I think it makes sense to have a medium-term plan as long as you are willing to re-evaluate your assumptions based on new data points.

If we're both still around then, I'll state my case at that time. I can't do more now than tell you I'm a villager because I don't know what today will bring.

[Lathum]

VOTE DADDYTORGO

I wanna make sure he loses in case of a tie breaker

[hoopsguy]

I've got about 15-20 more minutes - Gonzo, would love to get your thoughts on the first two days so far.

[DaddyTorgo]

lathum. I'm a villegar. Just a misguided one.

[Lathum]

lathum. I'm a villegar. Just a misguided one.

but you were so sure!!!!!

[path12]

You people suck at this game.

Except for Jack Parkman.

[path12]

Ok. Then I'd just like to say that this was fascinating, and I'm glad I tried werewolf. :) I don't see time upcoming to devote to another game, but maybe once my fantasy football drafts are over I'll sign up for another game.

(ooc) I hope you do. It gets better as you learn the game more. (/ooc)

[PurdueBrad]

VOTE DADDYTORGO

I wanna make sure he loses in case of a tie breaker

Lathum, as of right now, Hoops has the tie-breaker with my vote, unless I switch.

[Lathum]

I can't see hoops getting lynched considering his on the field value

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, as of right now, Hoops has the tie-breaker with my vote, unless I switch.

It doesn't matter if you switch, I'll still lose a tie.

[Passacaglia]

VOTE DADDYTORGO

I'll move it if someone wakes up and reveals some juicy night actions. Also, JE and Gonzo still worry me a little.

[Barkeep49]

I can't see hoops getting lynched considering his on the field value
Except that's nearly exhausted.

[Lathum]

Except that's nearly exhausted.

true but why lynch him today?

[Lathum]

hmm, pretty quiet.

So do you guys think hoops should step it up tonight?

[KWhit]

hmm, pretty quiet.

So do you guys think hoops should step it up tonight?

Yeah. Go ahead and get all three wins if we can before he's possibly night killed.

[Lathum]

Yeah. Go ahead and get all three wins if we can before he's possibly night killed.

I agree as well.

I also hope he gets seer scanned at some point.

[hoopsguy]

A few thoughts - I seem to be making lists lately ...

1. There is one person in the game who has demonstrated value to the village so far - me, through the "step it up" performances, twice.

2. Suggestions about taking me out, at this point in the game, are borderline idiotic in my opinion. It is one thing to play against the player/style, but taking out the guy who has won baseball games and can likely do it again tonight seems like you are playing to lose. This is not including the fact that I know I'm a villager.

3. We have four villagers out there with roles - Bodyguard, Seer, Duke, Scout among our ten remaining players. With that in mind, I think it is going to make for a very interesting day as we start to apply pressure to people.

4. I'm planning to step it up tonight. I would like to have the other players joining in being the ones least likely to be highly rated. I would rule out "Wild Thing", "Willie Mays Hayes", and our manager as I expect them to have higher value based on their movie impact. That leaves six players, of which three should step up tonight.

[Lathum]

I have also been thinking about the seer.

I AM PUTTING THIS OUT FOR DISCUSSION!!!! I DO NOT WANT THE SEER TO REVEAL RIGHT NOW!!

There are 10 of us left and unless I am missing something all our big roles are still alive, I am assuming the seer can clear 2 people at this point, add the seer themselves and thats 3 people cleared and 7 unknowns.

Tonight the BG can then protect the seer and we can get another person cleared. After the lynch/ night kill that leaves us with 8 people, 4 of which are unknown.

The BG can then reveal and protect themselves if they choose( the seer would be a night target anyway). After the bg reveals that only leaves us 3 unknowns. One of those unknows will be lynched leaving only 2 people and we can win the game.

Go ahead and poke holes in it.

[Passacaglia]

Hoops, do you think it's a good idea to step it up tonight? Once you've used your third one, that puts us back at square one. How comfortable do you feel with that?

[Lathum]

I realize hoops has helped us win games but I also think it is very possible we are being sidetracked because of it.

[Lathum]

my theory above doesn't factor in the duke which only helps us more.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I have also been thinking about the seer.

I AM PUTTING THIS OUT FOR DISCUSSION!!!! I DO NOT WANT THE SEER TO REVEAL RIGHT NOW!!

There are 10 of us left and unless I am missing something all our big roles are still alive, I am assuming the seer can clear 2 people at this point, add the seer themselves and thats 3 people cleared and 7 unknowns.

Tonight the BG can then protect the seer and we can get another person cleared. After the lynch/ night kill that leaves us with 8 people, 4 of which are unknown.

The BG can then reveal and protect themselves if they choose( the seer would be a night target anyway). After the bg reveals that only leaves us 3 unknowns. One of those unknows will be lynched leaving only 2 people and we can win the game.

Go ahead and poke holes in it.

I'm for this. We need to get a CoT. Right now I don't trust anyone.

[Barkeep49]

I realize hoops has helped us win games but I also think it is very possible we are being sidetracked because of it.
I agree. I have yet to see any reason to afford hoops more trust than anyone else around here.

[Barkeep49]

I'm not sure about Lathum's plan but if the seer has found a wolf, I think he/she/it should reveal for sure.

[path12]

I'm for this. We need to get a CoT. Right now I don't trust anyone.

Jack Parkman notes that Lathum requested specifically that the seer not reveal yet but tossed the idea out for discussion. It seems like you are saying that you just want to go ahead and have the seer come out.

Again, it is impossible for Jack Parkman to misunderstand a statement, so Jack Parkman requests a clarification.

[Lathum]

The more I think about it I think the seer should seriously consider it, At some point out luck is going to run out and if the seer takes their info to the grave it will screw us.

I think if the seer does reveal it needs to be early rather then late, otherwise we may not have time to act accordinly and the BG may not get their role in on time.

[hoopsguy]

Hoops, do you think it's a good idea to step it up tonight? Once you've used your third one, that puts us back at square one. How comfortable do you feel with that?

Yeah, I want us to keep winning games. Unless the Scout wants to come forward - which I don't think makes sense - with another candidate who can help us do that, I want to keep us moving up the standings.

When I'm burnt out I would recommend we look to others that we guess are highly rated if we don't have the Scout identified to give us help with this.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Jack Parkman notes that Lathum requested specifically that the seer not reveal yet but tossed the idea out for discussion. It seems like you are saying that you just want to go ahead and have the seer come out.

Again, it is impossible for Jack Parkman to misunderstand a statement, so Jack Parkman requests a clarification.

Yes, Lathum did say that he wasn't calling for the seer to out himself right now, but that is what the plan is calling for. I'm saying that I agree with him and that it sounds like a good idea. If the seer wants to out himself, I think it would benefit us right now. We don't have anything else to go on so what do we have to lose?

[hoopsguy]

I agree. I have yet to see any reason to afford hoops more trust than anyone else around here.

I don't know how to explain in a way that I haven't so far. But I'll try.

- 9 people left have shown nothing that absolutely, positively helps the team.
- I've won us two games.
- The wolves would be closer to victory if we had lost either of those games, per the stated victory conditions.

[Lathum]

- 9 people left have shown nothing that absolutely, positively helps the team.


I scorred the winning run last night.


It just seems to me you are more concerned with winning games and not finding wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Let's try another approach here. Published trust lists. Who do you trust/distrust and why?

I absolutely will publish mine this morning, but I'm extremely curious to see a couple of others first. If they aren't forthcoming, I'll start the ball rolling.

[hoopsguy]

I scorred the winning run last night.


It just seems to me you are more concerned with winning games and not finding wolves.

Considering we haven't found a wolf yet, who can't you say this about?

[hoopsguy]

As far as the seer plan goes, I'm fine with the seer revealing - the sooner the better, if he can help us get a trust list going. I would hope he has information on two other players, but even if it is only one along with himself that cuts the odds significantly.

As we have stated, he should have the bodyguard around tonight to ensure one more view. It will put more pressure on the wolves than they have felt so far this game.

[Lathum]

Considering we haven't found a wolf yet, who can't you say this about?

huh?

you are FAR more concerned then anyone else with winning games.

IMO

[Lathum]

One flaw in my theory is that the people the seer viewed may be dead

[Passacaglia]

One flaw in my theory is that the people the seer viewed may be dead

And that the bodyguard may have protected the seer last night.

[Passacaglia]

However, if that happened, it's not like the bodyguard would announce it. So we may be okay.

[Lathum]

And that the bodyguard may have protected the seer last night.

I also considered that but it was a 10-1 shot so ...

[Lathum]

I don't have a list but a few observations

Gonzo has been much quieter then last game.

DT's play has been oddly aggressive considering how wrong he was.

Hoops seems much more concerned about winning games, and letting everyone know he was the catalyst, then finding wolves.

[Passacaglia]

I don't have a list but a few observations

Gonzo has been much quieter then last game.

DT's play has been oddly aggressive considering how wrong he was.

Hoops seems much more concerned about winning games, and letting everyone know he was the catalyst, then finding wolves.

I think he's looking at winning games as a method of establishing trust -- and, since he's won two games and still isn't totally trusted, he's still harping on it.

[Passacaglia]

I agree about Gonzo. I see him in the thread -- Gonzo, any thoughts?

[Lathum]

I think he's looking at winning games as a method of establishing trust -- and, since he's won two games and still isn't totally trusted, he's still harping on it.

possibly, but IMO one has nothing to do with the other.

[Passacaglia]

possibly, but IMO one has nothing to do with the other.

Why not? Isn't winning games the same as helping the village? Would you feel differently if it were someone other than hoops winning all these games?

[Lathum]

Dola- To elaborate.

As a wolf one of the most important things you can do is attempt to establish trust with the villagers. Some people do it different ways.

AlanT doeas alot of analysis for example. some poeple cast an early vote on one of their fellow wolves to gain trust, etc...

In this game a potential way to seem "valuable" to the village is by helping win games, which Hoops is doing. And pointing out the fact that he is such a big help.

Seems to me the best way for a potential wolf to gain trust in this game.

[Lathum]

Why not? Isn't winning games the same as helping the village? Would you feel differently if it were someone other than hoops winning all these games?

of course it is but IMO winning games doesn't equal trust.

It just seems hoops is trying a little to hard to be trusted.

[Lathum]

Dola- I just want to reiterate that if the seer wants to come out they should do it soon, otherwise people may not be on to react accordingly

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I have no idea what criteria you are assigning to other people in terms of trust when you discard the only tangible result we have so far.

If I'm harping on it, it is because I'm beyond frustrated at the inability to look at the rest of the people in the game.

[Lathum]

Lathum, I have no idea what criteria you are assigning to other people in terms of trust when you discard the only tangible result we have so far.

If I'm harping on it, it is because I'm beyond frustrated at the inability to look at the rest of the people in the game.

so you don't think it would be an ideal wolf play to help win games in an effort to gain trust?

[hoopsguy]

Also, I think the votes on Daddy Torgo are misplaced. The crux of Lathum's argument about DT was that he was gunning for Cronin in a public manner because they were wolves playing off of each other. Well, that was clearly wrong. So now DT was gunning for him as a wolf trying to get a villager? C'mon, as a wolf just stay out of the way on Day 1. There is no reason for him to repeatedly draw attention to his vote on Cronin as a wolf. I consider him to be my most trusted person in the game right now other than myself.

And I'm not saying this as the seer, but as someone who is trying to ask questions of why people are playing the way that they are. So consider that the start of my trust list.

[hoopsguy]

so you don't think it would be an ideal wolf play to help win games in an effort to gain trust?

No, I think they would like to achieve their victory conditions instead if given the choice.

[Passacaglia]

Also, I think the votes on Daddy Torgo are misplaced. The crux of Lathum's argument about DT was that he was gunning for Cronin in a public manner because they were wolves playing off of each other. Well, that was clearly wrong. So now DT was gunning for him as a wolf trying to get a villager? C'mon, as a wolf just stay out of the way on Day 1. There is no reason for him to repeatedly draw attention to his vote on Cronin as a wolf. I consider him to be my most trusted person in the game right now other than myself.

And I'm not saying this as the seer, but as someone who is trying to ask questions of why people are playing the way that they are. So consider that the start of my trust list.

That was Lathum's argument. Was that what everyone else thought? I guess I still haven't read the stuff I skimmed from yesterday. Maybe that was the thinking, since the votes were for both cronin and DT together. I'm certainly willing to move my DT vote -- Gonzo and JE are for sure making me nervous -- but whatever the reasoning, you've just got to look hard at someone who comes out so strongly to lynch a villager.

[Passacaglia]

No, I think they would like to achieve their victory conditions instead if given the choice.

Which victory condition?

[Lathum]

No, I think they would like to achieve their victory conditions instead if given the choice.

For the wolves, a major victory is achieved if the wolves drop the villager numbers to an even ratio with the wolves. This automatically loses the pennant for the Indians. A minor victory is achieved if the Indians do not win the pennant, even if the wolves are exposed before reaching their major victory.

Well unless they are attempting to achieve a minor victory I see no reason for them to not make an effort during games to get trusted.

[hoopsguy]

whatever the reasoning, you've just got to look hard at someone who comes out so strongly to lynch a villager.

I'm more inclined to look at people who are trying to blend in with the crowd, not offering opinions, and are conducting themselves as if they are afraid to be wrong. Particularly if that is inconsistent with my perceptions of their "normal play".

[Lathum]

That was Lathum's argument. Was that what everyone else thought? I guess I still haven't read the stuff I skimmed from yesterday. Maybe that was the thinking, since the votes were for both cronin and DT together. I'm certainly willing to move my DT vote -- Gonzo and JE are for sure making me nervous -- but whatever the reasoning, you've just got to look hard at someone who comes out so strongly to lynch a villager.

I think I know why DT played the way he did and my vote stays on him.

[hoopsguy]

For the wolves, a major victory is achieved if the wolves drop the villager numbers to an even ratio with the wolves. This automatically loses the pennant for the Indians. A minor victory is achieved if the Indians do not win the pennant, even if the wolves are exposed before reaching their major victory.

Well unless they are attempting to achieve a minor victory I see no reason for them to not make an effort during games to get trusted.

Lathum, you are too smart not to get this - seriously, I feel like you are being stubborn on purpose here. Why would they hinder themselves in getting the minor victory?

I'll concede that the wolves want to be trusted (duh) if you concede that the wolves - all other things being equal - would prefer to be in premium position for both victory conditions.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, who do you trust, in relative terms this game, and why?

[Passacaglia]

I'm more inclined to look at people who are trying to blend in with the crowd, not offering opinions, and are conducting themselves as if they are afraid to be wrong. Particularly if that is inconsistent with my perceptions of their "normal play".

I agree with the first sentence. That's why I'm so worried about Gonzo and JE. I just don't know how to formulate an argument against them -- or to decide which one to argue against. As for the second sentence, I'm not sure if I'm quite seasoned enough to know the "normal play" of most folks on here -- so that part isn't as strong with me.

[Lathum]

Lathum, you are too smart not to get this - seriously, I feel like you are being stubborn on purpose here. Why would they hinder themselves in getting the minor victory?

I'll concede that the wolves want to be trusted (duh) if you concede that the wolves - all other things being equal - would prefer to be in premium position for both victory conditions.

If I were a wolf I would risk losing the minor victory if it put me in a better position for a major one.

[Lathum]

Lathum, who do you trust, in relative terms this game, and why?

other then myself there is only one other person I trust and it's Daddytorgo.

[Passacaglia]

other then myself there is only one other person I trust and it's Daddytorgo.

What?!?

[hoopsguy]

The problem is that the game can turn quickly - just look at Alan's last game for an example of that. The wolves are off to a great start in this game and now stand a couple of days away from a major victory.

I'm guessing the wolves from Alan's game would have loved to have a minor victory to fall back upon once that game turned against them.

The point is, if I'm a wolf I want to put myself in position to win as many ways as possible. That would have started with me not stepping up on a day where I wasn't supposed to step up (Day 1).

[hoopsguy]

other then myself there is only one other person I trust and it's Daddytorgo.

Who you are voting for at the moment. Because you "want him to lose the tiebreaker". :confused:

[Lathum]

thats correct

[Lathum]

DT.

And I guess we are just wired differently hoops.

I really could care less about minor victories in these games. I am willing to gamble a minor victory to achieve a major one, regardless of the odds. If sacrificing the minor victory gives me a 1% better chance to wil I'll do it.

[Lathum]

should say win.

[PurdueBrad]

Lathum, your line of thinking is similar to what I'm thinking (and I guess this makes me suspicious because I'm following the crowd to a degree) but I would go for the major victory and just use the minor one as a fallback. I think it makes sense for the wolves to gain trust through the games, just so they can freely pick off two per night (one because we keep picking ourselves off and the one they vote on). That's why I'm willing to take a risk on the higher profile Hoops. But look, I admit that losing him if we are wrong could be a big hit but we have some other people that could/should be able to step it up if we're wrong.

[Lathum]

Well assuming hoops uses his final "step up" tonight his usefullness drops off tomorrow from a baseball standpoint.

From a villager standpoint hoops in invaluable when on your side.

[KWhit]

I'm thoroughly confused.

Lathum, do you intend on keeping your vote on DT? Or is this some sort of ploy. Because right now, you're juts muddying the waters and sowing confusion, which is good for the wolves, but bad for the villagers.

[KWhit]

I think I know why DT played the way he did and my vote stays on him.

Please expand on this.

[Lathum]

I was hoping the seer would step up today but no such luck so the next best way to start a COT is find the duke.

DT is a smart player, I think he is the duke and came out so aggresivly on Cronin early on so he would call attention to himself, get lynched day 1 and be insta trusted while there being no lynch which helps us.

IF DT is the duke we don't lose a villager and we can start a COT with him.

[KWhit]

And regarding Hoops:

At this point, he's the closest thing we have to a trusted villager. Let's say he's at 51% trust level. In my eyes, he's at least that high - because we know he has helped the village twice.

Everybody else is around a 50-50 for me at this point. Maybe some a little more suspicious than others, but certainly nothing tangible at this point. At least Hoops has provided us with something. better than anyone else has done. We don't even know if the people are actually stepping up who say they do - except Hoops.

So he is my top trusted player right now. Not by much, that's true, but my vote will be going elsewhere tonight.

[KWhit]

I was hoping the seer would step up today but no such luck so the next best way to start a COT is find the duke.

DT is a smart player, I think he is the duke and came out so aggresivly on Cronin early on so he would call attention to himself, get lynched day 1 and be insta trusted while there being no lynch which helps us.

IF DT is the duke we don't lose a villager and we can start a COT with him.

Interesting theory.

A COT would be nice. He did come out very aggressive, but I don't know if that makes him the Duke.

So basically we'd get a no-lynch and a known good villager. Not a bad trade, but why don't we just ask the Duke to reveal and then go after who we think is a wolf tonight.

If the duke reveals and nobody comes forward to dispute it, we can assume he's telling the truth.

That way we don't lose a lynch tonight.

[Lathum]

And regarding Hoops:

At this point, he's the closest thing we have to a trusted villager. Let's say he's at 51% trust level. In my eyes, he's at least that high - because we know he has helped the village twice.

Everybody else is around a 50-50 for me at this point. Maybe some a little more suspicious than others, but certainly nothing tangible at this point. At least Hoops has provided us with something. better than anyone else has done. We don't even know if the people are actually stepping up who say they do - except Hoops.

So he is my top trusted player right now. Not by much, that's true, but my vote will be going elsewhere tonight.


I think that's a mistake and exactly what hoops wants if he is a wolf

[Lathum]

Interesting theory.

A COT would be nice. He did come out very aggressive, but I don't know if that makes him the Duke.

So basically we'd get a no-lynch and a known good villager. Not a bad trade, but why don't we just ask the Duke to reveal and then go after who we think is a wolf tonight.

If the duke reveals and nobody comes forward to dispute it, we can assume he's telling the truth.

That way we don't lose a lynch tonight.


I am assuming that is what will happen anyway.

[Gonzo]

I agree about Gonzo. I see him in the thread -- Gonzo, any thoughts?

None.

What do you want me to say?

[Barkeep49]

Hoops: Early on in the game, I think going for the major victory and minor victory is mutually exclusive for the wolves. Therefore, I see no reason why, if things are going well, and they have been, that they wouldn't just concentrate on getting the major victory and screw the minor victory. I don't think it's realistic for the wolves to equally persue both kinds of victories.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm not the duke

i'll tell you what was going on in my mind:

my gut and some early actions said cronin was a wolf. I pushed for him aggressively hoping he'd be scanned n1.

voted for him right away on d2 in order that the seer wouldn't have to be the only one making the play at cronin and also thought that I might be able to figure out from that who the seer was and establish a UTR-COT.

Like I said, since I saw more people strongely arguing to vote cronin instead of pushing someone else (such as me) or arguing that cronin was innocent, I assumed that the seer was the 2nd or 3rd vote on cronin and one of those people making arguments to lynch cronin.

but apparently the seer scanned someone else. Which was always the possible drawback of my idea.

once again. Lynch me if you must, but i'm not the duke. I can't save myself.

[DaddyTorgo]

lathum's confusing the crap out of me.

[DaddyTorgo]

rare triple-dola

aaaah, I understand his play now that I have caught up.

[Passacaglia]

I think that's only a double-dola, DT.

[Passacaglia]

I was hoping the seer would step up today but no such luck so the next best way to start a COT is find the duke.

DT is a smart player, I think he is the duke and came out so aggresivly on Cronin early on so he would call attention to himself, get lynched day 1 and be insta trusted while there being no lynch which helps us.

IF DT is the duke we don't lose a villager and we can start a COT with him.

Okay -- so given that DT claims not to be the duke, where does that leave you in your thinking of him?

[Passacaglia]

None.

What do you want me to say?

Well, let's start with your vote last night, for DT. You also said you were suspicious of cronin. Does the result from last night (cronin being a villager, DT pushing hard for him, MikeVic being killed) change your opinion of DT at all? It's a weird situation we have, with two votes on DT, and one of those votes from someone who says he trusts DT more than anyone. Do you plan to vote DT again? Or are you just going to wait and see how other people vote before putting yours in, sometime in the evening?

[path12]

I'm not sure if I'm quite seasoned enough to know the "normal play" of most folks on here -- so that part isn't as strong with me.

Jack Parkman believes that is a dangerous play. Jack Parkman knows for a fact that some around here deliberately vary their styles. Not that Jack Parkman is naming names, for Jack Parkman is no rat.

Suffice to say that Jack Parkman thinks that you are better off without that consideration.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I've allowed myself to be distracted from other topics of conversation long enough for today.

Trust List:
1. Hoopsguy - absolute trust, I know my own allegiance.
2. DaddyT - medium trust, see no advantage to his targetting villager Cronin for two days as a wolf.
3. Gonzo - slight trust. I wish that he would actually try to, you know, interpret events, offer thoughts, etc. But I don't think wolves are missing votes if they can avoid it.

Neutral:
4. Barkeep - strikes me as a burned-out villager who isn't doing anybody any good playing right now if his heart isn't in it.
5. Lathum - more aggressive playing style than I used to seeing from him in wolf mode. Seems like he feels the urgency of the situtation from villager point ofview. Last guy on list that drifts towards trust in this middle group.
6. Jonathan Ezarik - very little info to work with on him, like Gonzo. But not drifting into distrust yet, just a straight neutral.
7. PurdueBrad - first-game, would he come out blazing after me on Day 3 as a wolf? I'm leaning towards no, but he falls in at the very bottom of my neutral list.

Distrust:
8. Path - seems to be caught up in role-playing more than analysis up to this point
9. KWhit - my impression is that he is not being decisive this game, more like trying to find where he can safely position himself
10. Pass - same impression as KWhit, except that impression is even stronger. There was a post of his right before deadline last night that left me almost certain that we were in a villager/villager showdown between Cronin and Torgo


Other people here know KWhit and Passacaglia well enough from previous games. What are your thoughts on their play up to this point.

If neither one of these guys is a wolf then I just stink at this game. Period, end of story.

[DaddyTorgo]

i've been trying to vary my play more lately ftr

[hoopsguy]

I'll follow up my post with a vote.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[DaddyTorgo]

I wanna vote for path just to see the reaction.

But you're right...that can be an effective way of hiding in the open as a wolf.


as far as kwhit + pass...i've noticed that, more with kwhit than pass. Kwhit usually takes a stand on things and hasn't really so far this game. I'll go back and look for that post of pass' but if that's true then I think the smart vote is to go for him.

[hoopsguy]

My inclination is to vote for cronin, since Torgo feels so strongly about it, and it's his butt if he's wrong. But I read the thread pretty quickly. Does that sound fair?

Here was the comment by Pass, three minutes before deadline, that left me saying, "Umm, we are screwed with today's vote - two villager showdown".

[Jonathan Ezarik]

8. Path - seems to be caught up in role-playing more than analysis up to this point

I've been thinking this, too. It's easy to hide out in the open when you're playing the way he is.

VOTE PATH

[DaddyTorgo]

hmmm

[Passacaglia]

Here was the comment by Pass, three minutes before deadline, that left me saying, "Umm, we are screwed with today's vote - two villager showdown".

My comment was less about DT being the other vote candidate, and more about him being the one who pushed for cronin so much. As for the votes on DT, I don't recall anyone really feeling strongly about it -- I guess Lathum? I'll look back and see if I can find out.

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE PATH12

should be around until deadline. subject to change, would likely change to: pass or kwhit

want to see their reactions to hoops' comments first though and let that...settle in my head

[Passacaglia]

My comment was less about DT being the other vote candidate, and more about him being the one who pushed for cronin so much. As for the votes on DT, I don't recall anyone really feeling strongly about it -- I guess Lathum? I'll look back and see if I can find out.

Yeah, looking back, there was no strong charge on DT, really. I can see the idea that we were villager-villager last night given how it went down -- like I said, I'm willing to move my DT vote if a better option comes along. I'm not sure how that makes me a wolf, though.