WW LXIV- The Wedding- GAME OVER GUESTS WIN

[claphamsa]

BK huh? im gonna need to look into that.......

[mauchow]

Clap is drunk, I assume?

[DaddyTorgo]

I debated this...but I think it's a good point in the game for it

I'm the Maid of Honor. I found out last night that Raiders Army is a wolf.
My viewing sequence looked like this.
D1: NTN
D2: CR
D3: Raiders Army

Consequently

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

[mauchow]

I almost asked this earlier, if someone was able to get some good scans in we should discuss it and get rid of the next bad person and have the body guard protect.

Honestly though, I hope that you weren't protected tonight(last night) so we can get another scan in.

Awesome job though DT! Awesome.

Nothing on the other two though, I assume.

I will believe you for this.. hopefully you're not actually a wolf and screw us over for a day.. If you lied you'd die so really nothing to gain by telling us this, in my opinion.

Vote Raiders Army

Does everyone agree with this?

[ntndeacon]

Nicely done DT! I was wondering about him from the logic in his last post concerning Schmidty. It is not an unheard of move for a wolf to vote for another wolf on night one.

Vote Raiders Army

[mauchow]

Yeah, he might have ruined it now for the wolves to have a chance.

If Schmidty is indeed another wolf, jackpot and we have lots to work with for the rest of the game. Keep scanning and the bodyguard needs to protect him tonight...

[Chief Rum]

Wow, great job everyone! I guess I shoulda dogpiled on Pass after all.

I'm a little sketchy on Daddy Torgo's reveal right now. I am not going to follow it until we pass some more time today and see of anyone counters him. I haven't really gotten a bad vibe from RA this game, although I admit I haven't been around much in the daytime.

My work at my other job is done for this week, so I should be around at deadlines Thursday and Friday (well, may get in and get out quick Friday night, given it's Friday night).

[mauchow]

CR, I would completely agree with you but we really have nothing to lose by following him. If he's wrong, he's gone the next day and it would be completely ridiculous for him to be a good guy and lie about this. If he's a bad guy he's only hurting himself and in a sense is going to only help the wolves with killing two good people in the process of killing one of their own.

Not worth it for him to be lying as a wolf right now. He's what he says he is, IMO. I'm sticking with Raiders Army unless something absolutely crazy happens.

[Chief Rum]

CR, I would completely agree with you but we really have nothing to lose by following him. If he's wrong, he's gone the next day and it would be completely ridiculous for him to be a good guy and lie about this. If he's a bad guy he's only hurting himself and in a sense is going to only help the wolves with killing two good people in the process of killing one of their own.

Not worth it for him to be lying as a wolf right now. He's what he says he is, IMO. I'm sticking with Raiders Army unless something absolutely crazy happens.

I'm just being cautious, but I tend to agree with your thinking here. I don't like to just jump on a reveal, especially with so much time to deadline. Since I will be around tomorrow night, it seems prudent to me to wait and see what happens. If things are still looking strong tomorrow, you can count on my vote for RA.

[mauchow]

True that, and with that, I'm off to bed.

I'll be around in the morning and after 6pm tomorrow.

[Schmidty]

Yeah, Pass did about everything he could to save Mau - dissuading JeHeinz72, pulling the switcheroo on Ollie with him and an overall "rope a dope" strategy of deflecting away from mau. He's probably going to be my vote tomorrow.

An outside chance at another wolf is Schmidty, Pass seemed to deflate a lot of the interest in voting him off earlier as well.

What have you done to clear yourself? Just curious.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

I don't mind you putting me out there as a wolf since I haven't done anything to prove that I'm not. As a matter of fact, I haven't done much of anything, so the body of evidence on me is miniscule.

[claphamsa]

unvite mau
vite raiders navy

Either hes a wolf or we hatched the oretend maid!

[Arles]

What have you done to clear yourself? Just curious.
It was 3-2-2 when I voted for Pass yesterday and I did so explaining why I thought he was a wolf. If I *knew* he was a wolf, why make it 4-2-2 against him and essentially start the "pile on" that got him off?

Also, it makes sense for RA to be a wolf as he immediately unvoted Pass after I voted for him to try and stop the run. In the end, though, I would say there's not really anyone outside of DT who has a real strong case to be a villager.

[Arles]

I would also follow up by stating that after I brought up Schmidty being a potential wolf, RA came in and immediately tried to clear his name a few posts later by referencing the first day vote. If RA does turn out to be a wolf after he's voted off, this sequence won't look good either.

[jeheinz72]

Ok, everyone is going to want to read this. I'm highly confused. See, I'm the actual Maid of Honor, and let me tell you, I'm very good at this.

Night One - Barkeep - He's the Mother-in-law
Night Two - DT - It was returned to me that he's a Guest. So hence my confusion. Maybe he's the Drama Queen so he scans as a Guest
Night Three - Cheif Rum - He's the Ex-boyfriend

So yeah, you can imagine my surprise when I got in today to find someone revealed as my role, much less the one person I thought I had "cleared".

String me up as a liar as you want, at least if you do that you'll see I"m the Maid of Honor and you'll have a one-two hit-list for Day Four and Five.

Since I am admiteddly confused a bit as the one cleared person I have is the one fake-revealing, here's my proposal, everyone does one of two things.

1. You vote with me (my vote in the next post)
2. You vote FOR me. String me up. If I then die as the Seer, you'll at least know who to vote for next (BK and CR)

[jeheinz72]

Vote Barkeep

[jeheinz72]

Correction, CR is the Ex-Girlfriend, not sure why I typed Boyfriend. I'm sure some wolf will glom onto this oversight on my part and get my lynched. At least when it comes out I"m the Seer we'll know it was just a typo.

[claphamsa]

hmmmm, there is no fools roll..... so one of you has to be lying. that being said....... wow. need to think about this one!

[claphamsa]

so what would DT have fake revealing? if it was the end of the game and he wanted to push votes it might make sense. but now? and why would heinze fake reveal.....

[jeheinz72]

so what would DT have fake revealing? if it was the end of the game and he wanted to push votes it might make sense. but now? and why would heinze fake reveal.....

Well the only thing that makes sense to me would be is if he's the Drama Queen. He knows who the wolves are, so it's entirely possible/probable that he's just sacrificing himself to an extent to give them more cracks at the kills. Obviously the nights have been some sort of struggle for the Wolves as they can't kill anyone.

So DT reveals today and gets RA lynched, and then we all turn on DT and lynch him only to find out he's just the Drama Queen and so we've effectively gotten nowhere now. LIke a diversionary/distraction tactic.

As far as my reveal, there is little reason for it to be fake. Since it's not. Why would I, as a wolf, fake-reveal to out myself? To save RA? That's somewhat silly, it'd just get the two of us lynched in pretty quick order.

[Schmidty]

I would also follow up by stating that after I brought up Schmidty being a potential wolf, RA came in and immediately tried to clear his name a few posts later by referencing the first day vote. If RA does turn out to be a wolf after he's voted off, this sequence won't look good either.

I can't control what other people do, so what can I say?

[DaddyTorgo]

bad lie jeheinz. trying to throw smoke on the fire hmm?

you must be the drama queen and you saw this as your way to help the wolves out and try to buy them some time since I outed RA.

[DaddyTorgo]

i gotta work today...i can't sit here in thread all-day, but i will try to check in between 1-2pm EST and then again after work i will be around at like 7pm EST.

[jeheinz72]

bad lie jeheinz. trying to throw smoke on the fire hmm?

you must be the drama queen and you saw this as your way to help the wolves out and try to buy them some time since I outed RA.

Nice try DT. Throw out some doubt and run...

[jeheinz72]

I'll add this, if people don't believe me, more of an imploration and warning than anything. If you all are dead-set on lynching RA today, which you shouldn't be, then DON'T DON'T DON'T lynch DT then tomorrow. That's exactly what DT wants you to do, since he counts as a villager for the wolves anyhow. Vote BK or CR, they're the actual wolves.

I'm posting this just so if people don't want to believe me today, which is fine (wrong -- but fine), we don't compound the mistake by going right into DT's "trap", costing us two days and surely costing us the chance at a major win (or any win at all)

[Raiders Army]

I debated this...but I think it's a good point in the game for it

I'm the Maid of Honor. I found out last night that Raiders Army is a wolf.
My viewing sequence looked like this.
D1: NTN
D2: CR
D3: Raiders Army

Consequently

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

Whoa! This is not true at all. If you look at my voting history, I was one of the votes that guaranteed Pass getting lynched last night. If the real Maid of Honor has viewed a wolf (not DT), then please come forward and clear this up. If you haven't viewed a wolf yet, then remain silent and I will take the hit today to ensure a lynch on DT tomorrow.

[jeheinz72]

Whoa! This is not true at all. If you look at my voting history, I was one of the votes that guaranteed Pass getting lynched last night. If the real Maid of Honor has viewed a wolf (not DT), then please come forward and clear this up. If you haven't viewed a wolf yet, then remain silent and I will take the hit today to ensure a lynch on DT tomorrow.

Uh, I've found two (one of which DT is trying to slyly clear as well)

[Raiders Army]

Ok, everyone is going to want to read this. I'm highly confused. See, I'm the actual Maid of Honor, and let me tell you, I'm very good at this.

Night One - Barkeep - He's the Mother-in-law
Night Two - DT - It was returned to me that he's a Guest. So hence my confusion. Maybe he's the Drama Queen so he scans as a Guest
Night Three - Cheif Rum - He's the Ex-boyfriend

So yeah, you can imagine my surprise when I got in today to find someone revealed as my role, much less the one person I thought I had "cleared".

String me up as a liar as you want, at least if you do that you'll see I"m the Maid of Honor and you'll have a one-two hit-list for Day Four and Five.

Since I am admiteddly confused a bit as the one cleared person I have is the one fake-revealing, here's my proposal, everyone does one of two things.

1. You vote with me (my vote in the next post)
2. You vote FOR me. String me up. If I then die as the Seer, you'll at least know who to vote for next (BK and CR)

doh, too late. You shouldn't have come forward.

[jeheinz72]

doh, too late. You shouldn't have come forward.

Huh? I"m saying I've found us two wolves! Is that not clear from my post?

[Raiders Army]

Reading through the stuff that happened since I logged off last night. I rescind my previous statement that you shouldn't have come forward jeheinz. I think we're in good shape at this point.

Question for DT: if you are the seer, then why didn't you scan mauboy since you were pinging him after the first day's vote?

My death will mean nothing to the game overall, as I am an ordinary villager. I am willing to sacrifice myself to out DT. I think they were taking the chance that I was the bride or groom here. jeheinz brings up a good point in not voting for DT, as I think we can do a little better by hitting BK or Chief Rum.

At this point,

VOTE BARKEEP

[jeheinz72]

I know we can do better, unless there is some sort of unsaid mechanic about my scans being fake. Realistically, everyone with half a brain should be voting for BK.

[Raiders Army]

bad lie jeheinz. trying to throw smoke on the fire hmm?

you must be the drama queen and you saw this as your way to help the wolves out and try to buy them some time since I outed RA.

Why would another wolf come forward and try to save me if I'm a wolf? This play makes no sense whatsoever. We (the villagers) have a 10-3 advantage over them, so a wolf coming forward now would only make it a 9-1 advantage for the villagers (assuming jeheinz and I are wolves and you are a villager). That makes no sense at all to do this play at this stage in the game. If we were in endgame, then it would make sense but we're nowhere near there.

[jeheinz72]

Why would another wolf come forward and try to save me if I'm a wolf? This play makes no sense whatsoever. We (the villagers) have a 10-3 advantage over them, so a wolf coming forward now would only make it a 9-1 advantage for the villagers (assuming jeheinz and I are wolves and you are a villager). That makes no sense at all to do this play at this stage in the game. If we were in endgame, then it would make sense but we're nowhere near there.

Prizzactly.

[jeheinz72]

Arles, Farrah, NTN? Any thoughts? I see you guys lurkin'

[ntndeacon]

sorry rushing at work will give thoughts a little later je.

[oliegirl]

I'm curious as to why Heinz and DT chose to scan the people you scanned...that information would help me try to figure out who is lying here.

[mauchow]

Wow. I was actually curious about this, I felt that Heinz was trying to lead us all to Barkeep a few days ago. This only confirms it for me.

Unvote RA
Vote Barkeep

[Arles]

Whoah, interesting twist on my first WW game. I'm not sure which is the seer, but I'm leaning towards DT. Jeheinz72's explanation makes some sense, but here's what I don't like about his story:

1. After the first night (and he supposedly knew BK was the Mother in Law), he came out and voted for Mau in post 187 at 11 AM. Now, if I got a message saying BK was a wolf the night before, I would do everything possible to start an early run on BK - at a minimum I would change my vote to him at some point.

2. While JH finally voted for BK after the 2nd night - it looks like more of a defensive vote as BK himself voted for JH in post 202. So, if I were JH, I might choose him as a "wolf" to eliminate someone who was suspicious of me.

3. JH stated that, as a seer, he basically nailed the three other wolves (outside of Pass) in his first 3 guesses (Barkeep, DT, CR). While possible, that doesn't seem likely.

4. JH seemed to know a heck of a lot about the DQ role in knowing that the DQ would show up as a guest - not a wolf. Now, after getting his post and re-reading the front page, that makes some sense. But, that seems like something that would be in the initial "DQ" role email from Lathum.

Now, if you look at DT, his first two choices were "non-wolves" NTN and CR. So, he would have been no better off until the third night - when he learned RA.

Also, I think I am beginning to understand the "why" for JeHeinz coming in and confusing things (as a sacrificial lamb). The last two nights, no one has been taken by the wolves - this means:

1. Wolves know who both the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago and the other last night. This is a scary scenerio.
2. Wolves know who either the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago. Then, somehow, the bride or groom protected each other last night or the wolves got greedy and went after someone else who was protected (BG?).
3. Wolves know who either the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago. Then, the BG protected that person the next night (bit of luck there as I'm guessing the BG wouldn't know for sure).

I'm thinking one of the above cases is in order and if that's the case, the next 2-3 nights could determine the game. So, if the wolves can confuse us today, we may wake up tomorrow and see the seer gone. Then, we might see two of the bride, groom and BG go in the next two nights. So, the wolves may want to sacrifice the DQ tonight (no biggie to them) and even if they have one wolf gone in later weeks, the game my be over for us.

For that reason, I'm going with DT being the seer and RA the wolf. I think JeHeinz is the DQ and 2 remaining wolves are probably part of Schmidty, mau, clap and path. Although, I'm not as confident with that list (Farrah and ollie could also be wolves given what we know).

[mauchow]

I'll be sticking on Heinz's side on this one. If we are wrong with any direction we go, we'll have some grounds to go on. Regardless of what happens, us good guys will have plenty of hope and will be on a nice path to win.

I have to work til 6:00 tonight but I will be checking back now and again to see what else may have unfolded.

[mauchow]

Wow, Arles. In Depth Analysis man.

I see what you're saying and that could be disastrous for us if the Bride and Groom are both dead.

The bodyguard has to protect one of these two so called seers and they should choose at their own discretion. I'll try to think of something for the BG but I know it'll be a tough decision, regardless.

Also, the Bride and Groom could be dead and we wouldn't know it? Is that true? I have to read the front page again, too now.

[Arles]

Actually, my math is off. There's only 4 total wolves including the DQ (who seems to count as a guest). So, our options are (outside of pass being the ex-boyfriend):

Believe DT:
RA is one wolf
JeHe is the DQ
Schmidty/mau/clap/path is the other wolf

Believe JeHe:
Barkeep and CR are the wolves
DT is the DQ

JeHe's case is much too clean for this stage, and I'm leaning towards DT.

[mauchow]

And no ties tonight, people. I'll make sure I change my vote at the last minute to break any tie that might be there. We need someone to leave the party tonight if we're gonna find out information that we could use.

Anyhow, I'm f'real leaving now. Interesting though, Arles. I'll think it over whil at work. I do agree that it does sound a bit clean when you look at it closely.

[Barkeep49]

I purposefully avoided posting right after I saw JH's "reveal" because I was hoping someone else would see the rediculousness of it.

"Look at me! I found both the wolves! Believe me and we win". If you're going to lie, go big I suppose. DT came first and did it the standard way "I'm the seer. I found a wolf. Here he is". Wolf for seer? Good trade right there.

Vote RA

[oliegirl]

A lot to think about today...thanks for the write up Arlie - that is awesome! I'm learning toward DT being the seer right now, a lot of things you said about JE make sense...but I'm reserving final judgement until we (hopefully) hear back from the 2 "seers".

[Arles]

Obviously, I'm voting RA and hoping DT didn't pull a fast one on me.

[jeheinz72]

Here is my thinking on each point. I'll admit, this is my first time as a Seer, but it was the best thought process I could come up with.

Whoah, interesting twist on my first WW game. I'm not sure which is the seer, but I'm leaning towards DT. Jeheinz72's explanation makes some sense, but here's what I don't like about his story:

1. After the first night (and he supposedly knew BK was the Mother in Law), he came out and voted for Mau in post 187 at 11 AM. Now, if I got a message saying BK was a wolf the night before, I would do everything possible to start an early run on BK - at a minimum I would change my vote to him at some point.

Well, I wanted to, but didn't want to overstate my hand for 2 reasons

- It was early and it was just 1 of what would be 3 or 4 wolves. My role is vital to our team, just nabbing one didn't seem like enough. I also didn't want to be the night kill, so I had to walk a fine line there.

Also, with it being early, I wanted to see who started agreeing/disagreeing with me so we could get the successive vote. Looking back now, you can see both Pass and BK coming after me a bit on Day Two, this is the tie-in I was looking for. My original Night 3 order was to scan Pass actually (but I had it set conditionally that if he was dead to scan CR)


2. While JH finally voted for BK after the 2nd night - it looks like more of a defensive vote as BK himself voted for JH in post 202. So, if I were JH, I might choose him as a "wolf" to eliminate someone who was suspicious of me.


Yeah, it's inconvenient that he voted for me, but on Day 3 I had to get it out there, in case I was a night kill, that BK was who to look at once it was revealed I was a Seer. I figured if I die on NIght 3, you guys see "Hey he was the Seer, let's see who he was fingering". So On Day 3 I "upped" the veracity for which I came after BK.


3. JH stated that, as a seer, he basically nailed the three other wolves (outside of Pass) in his first 3 guesses (Barkeep, DT, CR). While possible, that doesn't seem likely.


Trust me, no one is more surprised by my luck than me. Here's my thinking on why I scanned who I did

Night 1 - BK. I knew he'd be active. I knew he'd post his thoughts. So I picked him as someone I knew I wanted to have the info of "Is he on my side or not"

Night 2 - DT. Since lots of talk was centering on him. I wanted to know "Were the people discussing DT (anti or pro) likely on my side or against me"

Night 3 - CR. Like I said, my inital thought was Pass (making waves, lots of posts) but he got lynched so it went to my backup, CR. I picked him since he had some talk on him (by BK too IIRC) and I knew that our two schedules don't typically line up to where I could get him on and grill him with questions.

Am I shocked it worked out well, yes. FTR, DT isn't actually a wolf. He's the drama queen likely.


4. JH seemed to know a heck of a lot about the DQ role in knowing that the DQ would show up as a guest - not a wolf. Now, after getting his post and re-reading the front page, that makes some sense. But, that seems like something that would be in the initial "DQ" role email from Lathum.


I'm admiteddly theorizing on the fact that DT is the Drama Queen. He scanned to me as a Guest. The only rationale I could think on why he'd fake reveal but scan as a Guest is the Drama Queen role. I have no other information on that role other than the post on Page 1.


Now, if you look at DT, his first two choices were "non-wolves" NTN and CR. So, he would have been no better off until the third night - when he learned RA.

Also, I think I am beginning to understand the "why" for JeHeinz coming in and confusing things (as a sacrificial lamb). The last two nights, no one has been taken by the wolves - this means:

1. Wolves know who both the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago and the other last night. This is a scary scenerio.
2. Wolves know who either the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago. Then, somehow, the bride or groom protected each other last night or the wolves got greedy and went after someone else who was protected (BG?).
3. Wolves know who either the Bride or Groom are by nailing one two nights ago. Then, the BG protected that person the next night (bit of luck there as I'm guessing the BG wouldn't know for sure).

I'm thinking one of the above cases is in order and if that's the case, the next 2-3 nights could determine the game. So, if the wolves can confuse us today, we may wake up tomorrow and see the seer gone. Then, we might see two of the bride, groom and BG go in the next two nights. So, the wolves may want to sacrifice the DQ tonight (no biggie to them) and even if they have one wolf gone in later weeks, the game my be over for us.

For that reason, I'm going with DT being the seer and RA the wolf. I think JeHeinz is the DQ and 2 remaining wolves are probably part of Schmidty, mau, clap and path. Although, I'm not as confident with that list (Farrah and ollie could also be wolves given what we know).

I don't know about the whole bride/groom issue. I had assumed that they hit the Groom Night 2 and that I'd walk in today to find the Groom killed off. Now it looks like at least once, our BG made a protection which rocks. Good job BG, but stay quiet. No need to reveal AT ALL.

Arles, if you want to stay and vote RA today, that's fine. It's wrong, but I just urge you that tomorrow when you come in and read the events that

A) RA was a guest
B) I'm likely dead in the night kill.

You only consider votes for CR and BK (since DT is the drama queen and would actually HURT our ratio if lynched).

I urge you though to see the light today that my outing myself as a wolf to counter DT would be a horrific blunder on my part, as it'd basically be handing the guests a 2nd wolf (with no additional benefit to the wolves themselves). It would make no sense for me to make such a play in that regard.

[jeheinz72]

A lot to think about today...thanks for the write up Arlie - that is awesome! I'm learning toward DT being the seer right now, a lot of things you said about JE make sense...but I'm reserving final judgement until we (hopefully) hear back from the 2 "seers".

Olie, what can I do to convince you. You need to believe me. Can I at least get your confirmation that you're on board with the plan that once DT is outed as a liar you'll vote CR or BK?

[jeheinz72]

I purposefully avoided posting right after I saw JH's "reveal" because I was hoping someone else would see the rediculousness of it.

"Look at me! I found both the wolves! Believe me and we win". If you're going to lie, go big I suppose. DT came first and did it the standard way "I'm the seer. I found a wolf. Here he is". Wolf for seer? Good trade right there.

Vote RA

Can't say I'm surprised by this.

I'll be the first to admit, I'm absolutely SHOCKED at my luck in the fact that the first 4 names I even considered (BK, CR, DT, Pass) all happened to be "working" for the other team in one fashion. After this game it'll go down as the greatest stroke of seer luck (and *some* skill, I think) to ever hit FOFC Werewolf.

Now it's just my job to prove/convince the regular guests to believe me so we at least get a win out of it.

[jeheinz72]

Oh, just an FYI folks, I leave for the day at 6 PM EST (still 6 hours from now), so if you have questions for me, don't wait until it's too late!

[Arles]

Since I am admiteddly confused a bit as the one cleared person I have is the one fake-revealing, here's my proposal, everyone does one of two things.

1. You vote with me (my vote in the next post)
2. You vote FOR me. String me up. If I then die as the Seer, you'll at least know who to vote for next (BK and CR)
The more I look at this, the more this makes sense for the DQ. He doesn't state the options as "Vote with me and believe me" or "Vote with DT and believe him".

IMO, those are the real options. Instead, he says "Vote with me or vote for me". If he is the DQ, then the wolves would much rather have him voted off (as he counts for a guest) than a real wolf. It's almost that he hopes he gets voted off if we don't believe him (not RA). That's not seer behavior, that's DQ behavior.

[jeheinz72]

The more I look at this, the more this makes sense for the DQ. He doesn't state the options as "Vote with me and believe me" or "Vote with DT and believe him".

IMO, those are the real options. Instead, he says "Vote with me or vote for me". If he is the DQ, then the wolves would much rather have him voted off (as he counts for a guest) than a real wolf. It's almost that he hopes he gets voted off if we don't believe him (not RA). That's not seer behavior, that's DQ behavior.

I'm doing that to show you how serious I am about being right. LIke a "Hey, if you don't believe me, KILL ME" kind of thing. If that's not as strong a message as I would think it is, then ok, vote RA. But you should still be believing me Arles.

I mean let's be realistic, if you vote for me and I turn up Drama Queen, RA is dead the next day anyhow.

If you vote with me and BK turns up innocent, it's the same difference. He won't though, he's the mother-in-law

[Raiders Army]

Actually, my math is off. There's only 4 total wolves including the DQ (who seems to count as a guest). So, our options are (outside of pass being the ex-boyfriend):

Believe DT:
RA is one wolf
JeHe is the DQ
Schmidty/mau/clap/path is the other wolf

Believe JeHe:
Barkeep and CR are the wolves
DT is the DQ

JeHe's case is much too clean for this stage, and I'm leaning towards DT.

While I'll admit that jeheinz's story is too good to be true, it still makes no sense for one wolf to cover for another wolf. We'd both be revealed and with this many players left in the game it doesn't make sense. Not only that, but if jeheinz was a wolf why wouldn't he come up with a more "believable" story to counter DT's reveal? What would his angle be if he was a wolf?

In any case, I have no problem with anyone voting for me, as I am an ordinary villager. I'd fight this strongly if I were the bride or groom but the wolves guessed wrongly with me. The way I see it:

Villagers win no matter what. The only possibilities I see here for the wolves is that the villagers will only get a minor victory instead of a major victory because they hit the bride or groom with a night kill.

Of course I want to make it to the end, but I will gladly sacrifice myself to verify jeheinz's story and ensure a villagers win (major or minor). I just don't see what sense it makes to believe DT.

[jeheinz72]

I'd agree, the village is going to win either way here. I'm just selfish/greedy and I want them to win by believing me off the bat. PLus the sooner they believe me the less chances the wolves have to take swipes at the Bride and Groom, I want that major win. But hey, yeah, if it takes me or you dying to ensure the win in the end then I am ok with that.

The real question is, with the DQ in the game, do we think they started out with 3 or 4 wolves? My guess is 3, since 12 guests, 3 wolves, 1 DQ seems fairest (11/4/1 would be a TOUGH win for the village). Anyhow, that's for a later date I suppose.

[jeheinz72]

Also, if someone does think there is a 4th wolf, I'll gladly take suggestions on who my scan should be tonight (not that I think I'll live to make the scan)

[Raiders Army]

The bottom line to me is that the numbers just don't work out for jeheinz and I both to be wolves. This isn't the time for wolves to play this game. The villagers hold a 10-3 advantage and they need their numbers.

What I don't really get is why would DT come out like that if this were true?

[oliegirl]

Olie, what can I do to convince you. You need to believe me. Can I at least get your confirmation that you're on board with the plan that once DT is outed as a liar you'll vote CR or BK?


I guess the first thing that popped into my head was why you didn't scan Mau or myself night 2. Or for that matter, Pass. Why DT on night 2?

[Arles]

Trust me, no one is more surprised by my luck than me. Here's my thinking on why I scanned who I did

Night 1 - BK. I knew he'd be active. I knew he'd post his thoughts. So I picked him as someone I knew I wanted to have the info of "Is he on my side or not"

Night 2 - DT. Since lots of talk was centering on him. I wanted to know "Were the people discussing DT (anti or pro) likely on my side or against me"

Night 3 - CR. Like I said, my inital thought was Pass (making waves, lots of posts) but he got lynched so it went to my backup, CR. I picked him since he had some talk on him (by BK too IIRC) and I knew that our two schedules don't typically line up to where I could get him on and grill him with questions.
I don't buy it. The first day you voted for Mau and seemed fairly sure he was a wolf. If you were the seer, it makes no sense for him not to be your first pick. DT first voted for RendeR, so he could have gone any direction with his pick.

I don't know about the whole bride/groom issue. I had assumed that they hit the Groom Night 2 and that I'd walk in today to find the Groom killed off. Now it looks like at least once, our BG made a protection which rocks. Good job BG, but stay quiet. No need to reveal AT ALL.
Why the groom in night 2 and not the bodyguard? It seems that they could have hit either in night 2. But, I do admit that it looked like someone important would have been dead this morning.

Arles, if you want to stay and vote RA today, that's fine. It's wrong, but I just urge you that tomorrow when you come in and read the events that

A) RA was a guest
B) I'm likely dead in the night kill.
If you're the seer and actually outted all the wolves in the above post - why would they kill you? Given you have no more value (ie, already identified all the wolves), there's no danger in keeping you around. What, are you going to tell us who the bride and groom are next? There's no more wolves to be found according to your posts.

You only consider votes for CR and BK (since DT is the drama queen and would actually HURT our ratio if lynched).

I urge you though to see the light today that my outing myself as a wolf to counter DT would be a horrific blunder on my part, as it'd basically be handing the guests a 2nd wolf (with no additional benefit to the wolves themselves). It would make no sense for me to make such a play in that regard.
It makes complete sense if you are the DQ. By this play on your end, the wolves gain:

1. One additional potential day of confusion after a potentially damaging post by DT.
2. If we vote BK and it turns out he was a guest - common wisdom would be that everyone votes you off. But, this wouldn't hurt the wolves as you would have played your role and your voting off as the DQ hurts our winning ratio.
3. IMO, I think the wolves now know atleast two of the party (Groom/BG and seer). So, if they can get those two out the next two nights, they are in the driver seat even if they lose you.

[jeheinz72]

I guess the first thing that popped into my head was why you didn't scan Mau or myself night 2. Or for that matter, Pass. Why DT on night 2?

Well, part of that is my schedule. I leave for the day at 6 PM EST. So anything that happens between then and the deadline doesn't get factored into my scan. When I left, I think you had just received your first vote, so you weren't on my radar at all.

As far as Pass/Mau/DT my rough strategy was to intentionally stay a day behind since a lot of my info due to my schedule was a day behind. I wanted the info of who I scanned pertaining to not only the votes for them (and who they voted for) but the reaction to those votes. So since DT was a hot-topic on Day One, and a lot of people took a stance on him one way or another, I thought I could get slivers of more information about many more people in addition to knowing what side he fell on.

I dunno if that's stupid or not, but like I said, it's my first time as a Seer.

Pass was my backup scan if DT somehow had been lynched after I left on Day Two (hence he was my primary scan on Night 3, had he not been lynched on Day Three)

As far as Mau, I figured scanning DT was as good as essentially scanning Mau. Had I missed on a wolf last night, Mau would've been my scan tonight (and for kicks he likely will be anyhow).

Does that help clear my thought process up at all?

[jeheinz72]

I don't buy it. The first day you voted for Mau and seemed fairly sure he was a wolf. If you were the seer, it makes no sense for him not to be your first pick. DT first voted for RendeR, so he could have gone any direction with his pick.

Yeah, I was going for a two-fer. I figured I was essentially scanning Mau by scanning DT. But by doing DT instead of Mau I was getting info on many others as well, whereas no one really took a stance on Mau on Day Two (when I voted for him, you're wrong there, I voted RendeR on Day One)



Why the groom in night 2 and not the bodyguard? It seems that they could have hit either in night 2. But, I do admit that it looked like someone important would have been dead this morning.


Oh it could be either combo. Frankly with 2 no-kills I have no idea what's going on with that. It's essentially irrelevant though since once you all kick yourselves for realizing you should've believed me, likely all the wolves will be out in the open (CR and BK, to reiterate)


If you're the seer and actually outted all the wolves in the above post - why would they kill you? Given you have no more value (ie, already identified all the wolves), there's no danger in keeping you around. What, are you going to tell us who the bride and groom are next? There's no more wolves to be found according to your posts.


That's a good point, I guess you're right. They'd have no reason to kill me unless there is a 4th wolf. Sweet! I'm all for them not killing me!


It makes complete sense if you are the DQ. By this play on your end, the wolves gain:

1. One additional potential day of confusion after a potentially damaging post by DT.
2. If we vote BK and it turns out he was a guest - common wisdom would be that everyone votes you off. But, this wouldn't hurt the wolves as you would have played your role and your voting off as the DQ hurts our winning ratio.
3. IMO, I think the wolves now know atleast two of the party (Groom/BG and seer). So, if they can get those two out the next two nights, they are in the driver seat even if they lose you.

Ok, I see what you are saying here. I guess all I can say to counter is regarding your point #2. They're trying to do exactly that, you just have the "players" mixed up. So just be sure, when you all decide to not believe me and RA comes up good, that you DON'T then compound the mistake by lynching DT since he's actually the DQ.. As long as you agree to that plan, I'm *satisfied


* satisfied to the extent that you're still wrong about all of this but I'll take solace in reiterating a plan which will help secure victory for the guests one day later than actually believing me now would.

[Arles]

Here's my play as I see it:

1. Vote RA off.

1a. If he's not a wolf, you are right, then we will get the remaining two real wolves the next two votes (CR and BK):
Tonight vote RA off, 3 wolves/DQ left (BK, CR, DT). They nail the groom/BG at night.
Tomorrow vote BK off, 2 wolves left (CR/DT). They nail You or guess.
Next night, vote CR off, 1 wolf left (DT). Guesses again at night.
Following night, we win.

No real harm done as they are probably going to land someone in the next two nights from our party and then guess. And, even if we followed your advice, it would take 3 (instead of 4) weeks to end the game. IMO, weeks 3 and 4 will just be wild guesses on their part so there's nothing lost in taking an extra week to get everyone.

1b. If RA is a wolf, then DT will be key in finding the final wolf (I would choose one of Mau, Clap or Schmidty) and we can assume you are the DQ.
Tonight vote RA off, 2 wolves/DQ left (JeHe and ?). They nail the groom/BG or seer at night.
Tomorrow vote - Hope seer survives to find the final wolf. If not, vote JeHe off, 1 wolf left(?). They take out groom/BG or seer.
Next night, Guess again for final wolf - but we just have the groom or BG and bride left. Final wolf guesses again at night.
This repeats..

So, it's clear to me that we can afford to be wrong on RA and still win the game in 2-3 weeks if you are right. If, however, we go BK tonight and he is a guest, we may be hosed. They will probably kill DT or the BG/groom tonight. Then, we will go RA tomorrow and they will finish off the other. At this point, we've lost probably the BG or Groom and seer, and they have one unknown wolf and the DQ left.

[Arles]

I have meetings for the next few hours, so I will check back later to see the discussion.

[Raiders Army]

I guess the first thing that popped into my head was why you didn't scan Mau or myself night 2. Or for that matter, Pass. Why DT on night 2?

The question here is why didn't DT scan mau? Based upon the below quotes from DT on day 1:

mauboy and RA are drawing my notice for the "seemingly uncoordinated" very coordinated swinging of the vote onto me at this point in my eyes.

UNVOTE RENDER

VOTE MAUBOY


Your defense hasn't convinced me of anything DT, I'll keep as is for now. You've said by far more guilty things than I have. I was the first to vote for you, I believe so I'm not a piler or whatever you want to call it.

howled at any moons lately?

Why didn't he scan mau?

[oliegirl]

Here's my play as I see it:

1. Vote RA off.

1a. If he's not a wolf, you are right, then we will get the remaining two real wolves the next two votes (CR and BK):
Tonight vote RA off, 3 wolves/DQ left (BK, CR, DT). They nail the groom/BG at night.
Tomorrow vote BK off, 2 wolves left (CR/DT). They nail You or guess.
Next night, vote CR off, 1 wolf left (DT). Guesses again at night.
Following night, we win.

No real harm done as they are probably going to land someone in the next two nights from our party and then guess. And, even if we followed your advice, it would take 3 (instead of 4) weeks to end the game. IMO, weeks 3 and 4 will just be wild guesses on their part so there's nothing lost in taking an extra week to get everyone.

1b. If RA is a wolf, then DT will be key in finding the final wolf (I would choose one of Mau, Clap or Schmidty) and we can assume you are the DQ.
Tonight vote RA off, 2 wolves/DQ left (JeHe and ?). They nail the groom/BG or seer at night.
Tomorrow vote - Hope seer survives to find the final wolf. If not, vote JeHe off, 1 wolf left(?). They take out groom/BG or seer.
Next night, Guess again for final wolf - but we just have the groom or BG and bride left. Final wolf guesses again at night.
This repeats..

So, it's clear to me that we can afford to be wrong on RA and still win the game in 2-3 weeks if you are right. If, however, we go BK tonight and he is a guest, we may be hosed. They will probably kill DT or the BG/groom tonight. Then, we will go RA tomorrow and they will finish off the other. At this point, we've lost probably the BG or Groom and seer, and they have one unknown wolf and the DQ left.

I like your plan, and as I said before, am not real comfortable with Heinz's reveal...I'm going to go ahead and vote now, I'll be in and out throughout the day so if something big happens, I can change my vote if I have to...

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

[Raiders Army]

To be clear, I have no problem being the sacrificial lamb. The villagers win no matter what. I'd like to live to see victory, but I hope you all will see this sacrifice and remember me...

To jeheinz, I think we're playing into the wolves here. The thing that bothers me about this is why would DT come forward at this point in the game? Are we closer to endgame than we think?

Let's say they did a conversion. That would make it 9-4 villagers to wolves. If they take me out, that brings it 8-4. DT or BK gets lynched and it's 8-3. They do a night kill and it's 7-3. They do a conversion and it's 7-4. I still don't get why DT came out at this point. The numbers just don't work out.

[Raiders Army]

The only possibility I see here is that they've done two conversions (which is highly unlikely) and the score is 8-5 villagers to wolves. They take me out and it's 7-5. If they were able to do another conversion, then it would be endgame.

I really doubt that they're able to convert every night, so that makes this possibility extremely remote. Maybe I'm missing something here.

[jeheinz72]

To be clear, I have no problem being the sacrificial lamb. The villagers win no matter what. I'd like to live to see victory, but I hope you all will see this sacrifice and remember me...

To jeheinz, I think we're playing into the wolves here. The thing that bothers me about this is why would DT come forward at this point in the game? Are we closer to endgame than we think?

Let's say they did a conversion. That would make it 9-4 villagers to wolves. If they take me out, that brings it 8-4. DT or BK gets lynched and it's 8-3. They do a night kill and it's 7-3. They do a conversion and it's 7-4. I still don't get why DT came out at this point. The numbers just don't work out.

The reason I think he did is this

A) It means you'll get lynched today, and he'll get lynched tomorrow (had I not had the hand good enough to reveal). Not only is that 2 "guests" as far as ratio goes not being lynched, but it's 2 chances that a wolf ISN'T voted out.

Also, DT is the Drama Queen, not a wolf, so he doesn't count as a wolf. I'd say WORST case is it's 10-3 with a drama queen right now (3 starter wolves plus a conversion, minus Pass). I think realistically it's 10-2-1 (1 being DT as the DQ).

So if it's 10-3 and you die and the groom dies it's 8-3. Then we string up BK and they kill say me, it's 7-2. Then we string up CR and they kill someone, it's 6-1. I'd like to hope that those remaining 6 good guys would be able to out that last wolf in the two tries they'd have at it.

Ideally though, its 11-2 (for ratio purposes DT counts as a guest). So it'll be 9-2 then 8-1 then ballgame with 6 living guests (I have a feeling CR gets to take someone with him, the rules kind of point to that). And that's fine.

Though if people just FRIGGIN BELIEVED ME it'd go

Lynch BK, 11-1
Someone dies, 10-1
Lynch CR, ballgame with NINE living guests and we get to start a new game.

But hey, as long as people are understanding how to recover from what is seeming like their inevitable mistake (by lynching BK and NOT DT tomorrow) all will be ok...kinda.

[jeheinz72]

The only possibility I see here is that they've done two conversions (which is highly unlikely) and the score is 8-5 villagers to wolves. They take me out and it's 7-5. If they were able to do another conversion, then it would be endgame.

I really doubt that they're able to convert every night, so that makes this possibility extremely remote. Maybe I'm missing something here.

Yeah, and I'd be surprised if they can convert at all, (with no mention of it). The DQ is the reason, remember he's a vote for them when it all boils down.

[mauchow]

Why did nobody scan me? Because it's assumed that with my early record of being a big mouth would eventually get me lynched, that's why there is no scan of me. There, I said it.

I strongly urge you to not use a scan on me since I'm just a guest of the wedding and it would hurt our chances a wee-bit as the good side. If you want to scan me and find out that I am indeed just a normal guest, be my guest. I've got nothing to hide.

Heinz has more to lose with this reveal than DT does and as of right now that's why I'm sticking with my vote.

Later tonight I'll go step by step WHY nobody should be considering me for a wolf anyways. I don't have the time to put together my votes and all that good stuff, but it is pretty obvious that I'm not a wolf.. at least it should be.

I don't know why I'm being so defensive when I'm not even on the chopping block but I will be anyways because I think I need to for my own sake.

[jeheinz72]

Where's path when ya need him, I know A) He's logical enough to believe me and B) He's smart enough to help me figure out the silver bullet of a point I need to convince the rest of the group to do what is right.

[mauchow]

Will be defensive for my own sake.. and I want to freakin' be alive at the end of a game for once.

[jeheinz72]

Why did nobody scan me? Because it's assumed that with my early record of being a big mouth would eventually get me lynched, that's why there is no scan of me. There, I said it.

I strongly urge you to not use a scan on me since I'm just a guest of the wedding and it would hurt our chances a wee-bit as the good side. If you want to scan me and find out that I am indeed just a normal guest, be my guest. I've got nothing to hide.

Heinz has more to lose with this reveal than DT does and as of right now that's why I'm sticking with my vote.

Later tonight I'll go step by step WHY nobody should be considering me for a wolf anyways. I don't have the time to put together my votes and all that good stuff, but it is pretty obvious that I'm not a wolf.. at least it should be.

I don't know why I'm being so defensive when I'm not even on the chopping block but I will be anyways because I think I need to for my own sake.

I really don't think you're a wolf at the point Mau. DT being on the "bad" side just about confirms it for me. But fact is, I'll be needing to scan SOMEONE tonight, even if it's just a fruitless scan because I kicked ass so much and already found all the dawgone wolves.

[mauchow]

I don't count as someone logical Heinz? Heheh.. thanks.

I wish I could put together something right now, but I'm at a faulty work connection that quits frequently, so I can't go page by page and put together anything at the moment.

[mauchow]

If DT is INDEED the wolf your scan on me would be even more pointless yet. I threw myself under the bus in some eyes by eyeing DT from the get-go. He caught my eye and has always been on my radar as everyone knows. You'd be smarter scanning someone else and I'm sure you're smart enough to know that, too. I know your style, you say one thing and go with another route.. so everyone just pretend I didn't write what I just wrote!

[mauchow]

Personally, I think you need to look at one of the Rahn's, but that's just me.

[jeheinz72]

I don't count as someone logical Heinz? Heheh.. thanks.

I wish I could put together something right now, but I'm at a faulty work connection that quits frequently, so I can't go page by page and put together anything at the moment.

Oh, you do, but I already have your vote (well at this moment I do).

I'd love some assistance here as far as making people see the light. I mean basically it seems like people aren't believing me because DT did his thing first.

So I'm just going to re-iterate how desperately people need to be sure they lynch BK or CR tomorrow so this whole thing doesn't go to pot.

[jeheinz72]

Personally, I think you need to look at one of the Rahn's, but that's just me.

Actually I just put in the order to scan Arlie (not that I really think he's a wolf, but if there is a mysterious 4th wolf out there, I might as well scan away. I tend to believe there are just two true wolves left, CR and BK).

[mauchow]

Well, what you keep saying just makes it sound a little more guilty. It is pretty obvious that if they vote out RA tonight and they're all wrong, OBVIOUSLY they will be going your route because DT may have been wrong.

Now I'm beginning to think that this might be a double fake-out. You are both wolves and by doing this one of you has eliminated each other from being a wolf, until of course the ACTUAL, REAL SEER comes out.

I strongly urge, if it is true, that the real seer scans one of these two guys tonight and doesn't come out with it.

I might go the length of making sure BOTH these guys get voted out after today for this reasoning alone. If DT is wrong, we vote DT then we get rid of Heinz following that. If Heinz is right, we vote DT and see what DT REALLY was.

[jeheinz72]

Well, what you keep saying just makes it sound a little more guilty. It is pretty obvious that if they vote out RA tonight and they're all wrong, OBVIOUSLY they will be going your route because DT may have been wrong.

Now I'm beginning to think that this might be a double fake-out. You are both wolves and by doing this one of you has eliminated each other from being a wolf, until of course the ACTUAL, REAL SEER comes out.

I strongly urge, if it is true, that the real seer scans one of these two guys tonight and doesn't come out with it.

I might go the length of making sure BOTH these guys get voted out after today for this reasoning alone. If DT is wrong, we vote DT then we get rid of Heinz following that. If Heinz is right, we vote DT and see what DT REALLY was.

I think it's time for me to stop talking altogether then if it's dissuading from the fact that DT is NOT A WOLF. HE IS THE DRAMA QUEEN. That's the main point I care to make, today's vote is just sugar on top

If you follow the logic of that last paragraph (which is exactly what I don't want you to do), the village will lose this game.

With that, I'm out. I'm going to be online but intentionally not look in here until an hour or so before I leave.

[mauchow]

Lots of people viewing the thread and not a whole lot of talking.

[mauchow]

I couldn't finish my paragraph in my long post above, I wanted to add a few more things but bosses came in and I had to cut it short. Anyhow.

We see what happens after today and it can be discussed in good form the rest of the way. I see what you are saying about not wanting to vote DT out because he may be the drama queen and it doesn't count against our numbers, so that I understand. I do. So, we don't vote him out and find another route when the time comes...

I'm still fine for sticking around on this side of the fence for the time being and won't be too upset with anything that does come up in the upcoming night.

[oliegirl]

I don't really know what to think at this point...Mau is going on and on like he's 1 vote away from being voted out tonight, yet I dont' think he has any votes at all...makes me wonder if he's panicking b/c his name has been mentioned a number of times and he's just rambling to make himself feel better.

The DT/Heinz thing really has me wondering who is who and what is what...my gut says the DT is the real seer, but he could be lying and it wouldn't be the first time I was fooled by DT. I think I've played with Heinz before, but nothing about any of his games sticks out in my mind...

I know if I were the seer, and what went down on night 2 happened with Pass, Mau and myself, I would have scanned one of those 3 people (obviously using a different player for myself in the scenario). I find it really odd that none of the 3 of us were scanned that night. But maybe that is just me.

Like I said before, I've put my vote in...we'll see how the rest of the day plays out, but right now, I'm not totally convinced that either of them are telling the entire truth.

[Chief Rum]

Ok, everyone is going to want to read this. I'm highly confused. See, I'm the actual Maid of Honor, and let me tell you, I'm very good at this.

Night One - Barkeep - He's the Mother-in-law
Night Two - DT - It was returned to me that he's a Guest. So hence my confusion. Maybe he's the Drama Queen so he scans as a Guest
Night Three - Cheif Rum - He's the Ex-boyfriend

So yeah, you can imagine my surprise when I got in today to find someone revealed as my role, much less the one person I thought I had "cleared".

String me up as a liar as you want, at least if you do that you'll see I"m the Maid of Honor and you'll have a one-two hit-list for Day Four and Five.

Since I am admiteddly confused a bit as the one cleared person I have is the one fake-revealing, here's my proposal, everyone does one of two things.

1. You vote with me (my vote in the next post)
2. You vote FOR me. String me up. If I then die as the Seer, you'll at least know who to vote for next (BK and CR)

Umm, Pass was the ex-boyfriend! It said that when he died. What are you talking about?

[Raiders Army]

Yeah, and I'd be surprised if they can convert at all, (with no mention of it). The DQ is the reason, remember he's a vote for them when it all boils down.

The other possibility is that they could have banked on the thought that the seer didn't have a wolf yet and wouldn't come out.

[Raiders Army]

I don't really know what to think at this point...Mau is going on and on like he's 1 vote away from being voted out tonight, yet I dont' think he has any votes at all...makes me wonder if he's panicking b/c his name has been mentioned a number of times and he's just rambling to make himself feel better.

The DT/Heinz thing really has me wondering who is who and what is what...my gut says the DT is the real seer, but he could be lying and it wouldn't be the first time I was fooled by DT. I think I've played with Heinz before, but nothing about any of his games sticks out in my mind...

I know if I were the seer, and what went down on night 2 happened with Pass, Mau and myself, I would have scanned one of those 3 people (obviously using a different player for myself in the scenario). I find it really odd that none of the 3 of us were scanned that night. But maybe that is just me.

Like I said before, I've put my vote in...we'll see how the rest of the day plays out, but right now, I'm not totally convinced that either of them are telling the entire truth.

FWIW, it's my and jeheinz's word against DT's. No one else is vouching for DT.

[mauchow]

Umm, Pass was the ex-boyfriend! It said that when he died. What are you talking about?

He did correct himself two posts later.

[mauchow]

I don't really know what to think at this point...Mau is going on and on like he's 1 vote away from being voted out tonight, yet I dont' think he has any votes at all...makes me wonder if he's panicking b/c his name has been mentioned a number of times and he's just rambling to make himself feel better.

The DT/Heinz thing really has me wondering who is who and what is what...my gut says the DT is the real seer, but he could be lying and it wouldn't be the first time I was fooled by DT. I think I've played with Heinz before, but nothing about any of his games sticks out in my mind...

I know if I were the seer, and what went down on night 2 happened with Pass, Mau and myself, I would have scanned one of those 3 people (obviously using a different player for myself in the scenario). I find it really odd that none of the 3 of us were scanned that night. But maybe that is just me.

Like I said before, I've put my vote in...we'll see how the rest of the day plays out, but right now, I'm not totally convinced that either of them are telling the entire truth.

You are exactly right. I'm rambling just to ramble, to be honest. I just want to make sure there is no scan on me because it is pointless. Just trying not to waste a scan but if it draws more attention and I get a scan anyways.. fine.

As far as not getting a scan on any of us three with what was going on, I can understand why there wasn't a scan. Usually when there are tiffs going on, they tend to sort themselves out after another day or two.

[jeheinz72]

He did correct himself two posts later.

Yeah, you're the Ex-GIRLfriend CR.

I'd hit on you ;) , but for game purposes, I'm a girl too as the Maid of Honor.

[mauchow]

Yeah, you're the Ex-GIRLfriend CR.

I'd hit on you ;) , but for game purposes, I'm a girl too as the Maid of Honor.

I'd hit it....

Oh, wait.

[oliegirl]

FWIW, it's my and jeheinz's word against DT's. No one else is vouching for DT.

Arles voted for you, so he's basically siding with DT. Basically we can believe DT and vote for you, or believe Heinz, and vote for BK/CR...

[Chief Rum]

Correction, CR is the Ex-Girlfriend, not sure why I typed Boyfriend. I'm sure some wolf will glom onto this oversight on my part and get my lynched. At least when it comes out I"m the Seer we'll know it was just a typo.

Nice correction.

Or did you get yourself confused setting up the fake reveal to save RA? Bad move. Arles is right (not that I expect anyone to believe I would say otherwise, with you trying to pin me, too, but he is). This is too clean. You should have eased off.

Like Homer says when Bart changes his 'D' to an 'A' to get to go to summer camp. "What kind of fool do you take me for, boy? A 'B' is more believable. And it's much easier to turn a 'D' into a 'B'. You just got greedy."

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

[jeheinz72]

Nice correction.

Or did you get yourself confused setting up the fake reveal to save RA? Bad move. Arles is right (not that I expect anyone to believe I would say otherwise, with you trying to pin me, too, but he is). This is too clean. You should have eased off.

Like Homer says when Bart changes his 'D' to an 'A' to get to go to summer camp. "What kind of fool do you take me for, boy? A 'B' is more believable. And it's much easier to turn a 'D' into a 'B'. You just got greedy."

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

Emminently predictable.

As far as greediness, what was I supposed to do? Lie about who I scanned on night 3 and not try to act like I caught two wolves? Make something up? That seems riskier to me, but yeah, like you said, it's not like anyone was expecting you to take my side here. :)

[Chief Rum]

Emminently predictable.

As far as greediness, what was I supposed to do? Lie about who I scanned on night 3 and not try to act like I caught two wolves? Make something up? That seems riskier to me, but yeah, like you said, it's not like anyone was expecting you to take my side here. :)

Well, what's one more lie once you have started.

[Raiders Army]

Arles voted for you, so he's basically siding with DT. Basically we can believe DT and vote for you, or believe Heinz, and vote for BK/CR...

The difference is that Arlie can't say 100% that DT is telling the truth. I can tell you that DT is a wolf and jeheinz can tell you that DT is a wolf 100%.

[jeheinz72]

The difference is that Arlie can't say 100% that DT is telling the truth. I can tell you that DT is a wolf and jeheinz can tell you that DT is a wolf 100%.

Actually I can't say DT is a wolf, he scanned as a Guest. I freely admit that. He's gotta be the Drama Queen.

[Raiders Army]

Nice correction.

Or did you get yourself confused setting up the fake reveal to save RA? Bad move. Arles is right (not that I expect anyone to believe I would say otherwise, with you trying to pin me, too, but he is). This is too clean. You should have eased off.

Like Homer says when Bart changes his 'D' to an 'A' to get to go to summer camp. "What kind of fool do you take me for, boy? A 'B' is more believable. And it's much easier to turn a 'D' into a 'B'. You just got greedy."

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

Okay smart guy. jeheinz and I have discussed this, but give me your theory on why jeheinz and I are lying at this point in the game. Why would a wolf cover for the other right now when there are 13 players left?

[jeheinz72]

Well, what's one more lie once you have started.

I prefer to not lie actually. I just wish I could see the PM's you and BK are shooting back and forth "DUDE, WE'RE SCREWED!"

[Raiders Army]

Dola, all you've done is try to discredit jeheinz's story, while improbable is true. You've done nothing to give any motivation behind us working together.

[Raiders Army]

And Daddy Torgo is in the thread. (and hoops...it's times like this I wish you were playing)

[jeheinz72]

Worth updating

RaidersArmy: 7 (DT, NTN, clap, BK, Arlie, olie, CR)
Barkeep: 3 (jeheinz72, RaidersArmy, Mau)

No vote from: path12, Schmidty, Farrah

So since i know DT, BK and CR aren't switching. And we know myself and RA aren't switching, that leaves 8 voters. I need to get 5 of you to agree with me. I have 1, they have 4 and 3 are undecided. This isn't going well.

Since I can't resist posting, I'll have some questions for the haters shortly.

[jeheinz72]

And Daddy Torgo is in the thread. (and hoops...it's times like this I wish you were playing)

Ditto, Hence my plea to path to come on. He's logical enough like hoops to pick up what we're puttin' down.

[DaddyTorgo]

it's not "throwing out some doubt and running."

it's "work is very busy right now and i have lots of time-sensitive things on my plate."

and i don't lie about RL in WW. when I say that's the case i mean it. I just took half of my normal lunch break because I have so much backed up.

i don't have time to read what everyone posted so far today yet. that will have to wait for 7pm.

bottom line is: I am the seer. Jeheinz72 is telling a WHOPPER. really...what are the odds he scanned 3 people and two of them were wolves? Does anyone in their right mind buy that? Isn't it more likely that I found ONE versus him finding TWO.

I say we vote RA, we're proved that I am right, and then we leave jeheinz72 alive afterwards since he counts for our #'s as far as victory conditions.

[hoopsguy]

And Daddy Torgo is in the thread. (and hoops...it's times like this I wish you were playing)

Me too, looks like a fun day. And I've got thoughts, but it wouldn't be very sporting to share them.

[jeheinz72]

Let's put this another way. Let's look at my reveal, presuming RA is a wolf (which all of you people in the middle who are voting for him are doing)

If I'm a wolf too, I'd have to be an idiot to try and fake-reveal-second. I'd hope you'd at least spot me that "given"

If I'm the Drama Queen, does it really make sense for me to out myself in order to try and save him?

Also, I just noticed something, the role of Drama Queen actually needs to be alive in order to win with the Wolves. Maybe DT did get converted, since his reveal wouldn't make sense from his standpoint if he's the drama queen.

So if I'm the Drama Queen then too, why would I throw myself in harms way (i.e. death if RA is lynched and comes up wolf) just to *try* and save him? I wouldn't really gain that much by saving him (since there would be another wolf out there) and I'd basically be killing myself.

[DaddyTorgo]

why i scanned who i scanned (and then i need to get back to work)

NTN - dangerous very UTR type player. always seems to be on the opposite side from me
CR - dangerous player for either side, but particularly effective staying alive as a wolf
RA - it was between him and Path to me. His play on the first couple days just had me curious, he seemed to be offering a lot of analysis and it was one of those "can i trust his analysis" type scans.

[jeheinz72]

bottom line is: I am the seer. Jeheinz72 is telling a WHOPPER. really...what are the odds he scanned 3 people and two of them were wolves? Does anyone in their right mind buy that? Isn't it more likely that I found ONE versus him finding TWO.



Apparently it's 1 in HoweverManyGamesHaveBeenPlayed ;)

[jeheinz72]

why i scanned who i scanned (and then i need to get back to work)

NTN - dangerous very UTR type player. always seems to be on the opposite side from me
CR - dangerous player for either side, but particularly effective staying alive as a wolf
RA - it was between him and Path to me. His play on the first couple days just had me curious, he seemed to be offering a lot of analysis and it was one of those "can i trust his analysis" type scans.

Those are some awfully non-descript non-game-related scan logics...

[DaddyTorgo]

Apparently it's 1 in HoweverManyGamesHaveBeenPlayed ;)

funny man.


okay...i need to get back to updating databases and creating marketing collateral. i will be back on ~ 7pm EST.

[Chief Rum]

Okay smart guy. jeheinz and I have discussed this, but give me your theory on why jeheinz and I are lying at this point in the game. Why would a wolf cover for the other right now when there are 13 players left?

Because one of you is not a wolf. There is another working with you whom we don't know yet.

[jeheinz72]

I think now that I've looked closer at the role of Drama Queen that DT did get converted last night and the wolves decided that since he was a convert and they're essentially playing with house money with him, to have him fake reveal to get me to reveal myself.

It worked, but they just didn't bank on the fact that I was improbably lucky and talented with my scans.

[Chief Rum]

Dola, all you've done is try to discredit jeheinz's story, while improbable is true. You've done nothing to give any motivation behind us working together.

Not sure what motivation is needed beyond, "you're a wolf, you will get lynched without a defense, so jeheinz to the rescue."

[mauchow]

IMO, we need to sway our votes to heinz's side because it will do a tad bit more for us than against us if we do it. Tonight we're going to find out who's lying.

Heinz revealing that he's a seer would be the silliest move in the world if he wasn't actually the seer. His name was never once thrown around as being guilty and all of the sudden he wants to be recognized and get his name out there as a possible bad guy? That makes no sense and I believe JH is smart enough to know that.

I'll try to put more together tonight but I'm finding more time than I thought here at work today.. slow as hell thanks to snow.

[DaddyTorgo]

Those are some awfully non-descript non-game-related scan logics...


no, they actually are game-related. #3 is related to this game specifically. #1 + #2 are meta-game related. And they're all strong, experienced players where I wanted to know how they stood.

Notice also that I did not reveal anymore about their roles. I'm not about to out any other helpful roles.

back to work for me. more later.

don't buy into jeheinz's tall-tale. or RA's pathetic, wolfy baying-at-the-moon

[Chief Rum]

Also, I just noticed something, the role of Drama Queen actually needs to be alive in order to win with the Wolves. Maybe DT did get converted, since his reveal wouldn't make sense from his standpoint if he's the drama queen.

So if I'm the Drama Queen then too, why would I throw myself in harms way (i.e. death if RA is lynched and comes up wolf) just to *try* and save him? I wouldn't really gain that much by saving him (since there would be another wolf out there) and I'd basically be killing myself.

We have seen this before in other games. The rules state the explicit victory conditions, but what someone individually considers a victory may be different.

So maybe by the rules, as a dead DQ, you don't win when the wolves win. But certainly you will have helped them win and can take some satisfaction from that. If you believe they lose otherwise, meaning you get no satisfaction at all, you might do that. In fact, I think practice has shown that people in those circumstances fairly often do do that, sacrificing themselves for the "side" (whichever they are on) and consider it a win if their side wins, even though they died.

[jeheinz72]

We have seen this before in other games. The rules state the explicit victory conditions, but what someone individually considers a victory may be different.

So maybe by the rules, as a dead DQ, you don't win when the wolves win. But certainly you will have helped them win and can take some satisfaction from that. If you believe they lose otherwise, meaning you get no satisfaction at all, you might do that. In fact, I think practice has shown that people in those circumstances fairly often do do that, sacrificing themselves for the "side" (whichever they are on) and consider it a win if their side wins, even though they died.

I can see that. I think really a vote for DT only makes sense after we 86 you and Barkeep anyhow. :)

[oliegirl]

Couldn't what Heinz is saying about DT, he's the drama queen, etc...actually be reversed and Heinz revealed b/c he is the drama queen? Maybe one of the "jobs" of the drama queen was to pull some sort of fake reveal or create drama? Could specifics be written into a role that way?

[ntndeacon]

My opinion is that tonights lynching will tell all. I have no problem even if Je is correct with lynching RA tonight. If RA is guilty we know that JE is on the other side even if he is a drama Queen, and if RA is innocent, we can hang Chief Rum tomorrow.

[jeheinz72]

Ok, so one last attempt before I actually get some work done. Surely, the proof is in the pudding (the votes). We're dealing with 4 highly experienced and respected players as wolves here (Pass, BK, CR and DT), but I still think they've slipped up somewhere..

Let's look at the last votes



Day Three
Passacaglia 7 ( Path12 363, Oliegirl 411, Arles 427, Farrah 451, Barkeep 461, RaidersArmy 468, Schmidty 476)
Mauboy 4 ( Chiefrum 368, Claphasma 408, DaddyTorgo 431, Passacaglia 471)
Barkeep49 2 ( JeHeinze 385, Mauboy 400)


Ah, the meat and potatoes

From my perspective of what is right (CR/BK/Pass/DT are bad): Lookie here. CR, Pass and DT are ALL VOTING together to try and save a wolf freind. BK admiteddly votes for Pass, but he did it to make it 5-3-2 and with over 2 hours to deadline, I think he thought things would switch up a bit more and he could cover him at the end if he could get away with it.

We all know it's a wise move for wolves to come out against wolves sometimes. I think by the time he could realistically flip to Mau it was too late, he couldn't have it go from 6-4 to 5-5 without looking guilty as sin and having the whole pack of the 4 of them voting together. Then Schmidty votes Pass and it's a lost cause anyhow. I figure BK had to cut the line to Pass, let him die and look good by voting for him. It was his only move at that point.

From their perspective of the truth (RA, Pass and PlayerX are Wolves, I'm the wolf-lover): You've got RA who makes it go from 5-3-2 to 6-3-1, effectively sealing the deal on Pass getting lynched. It's one thing to make it so a flip in votes still keeps it close, it's another for a wolf to make it where you'd need two people to come on and switch or flip their vote to save a fellow wolf. Especially an hour closer to deadline than when BK cast Pass's 5th vote. If RA is a wolf, that would be a HIGHLY risky play. He could've achieved the same level of protection by just not changing his vote and/or waiting.

To analyze my vote, since I leave early, when I left for the day, Pass and Mau had 3 votes apiece. Two other people had two votes on them My vote was one of 2 on BK.

Now go into my mindset here and pretend you're me and I'm the wolf lover (which I'm not actually). Wouldn't it make sense for me to ease off the gas on BK and flip over to Mau before leaving? Just to help out and potentially help avoid getting a wolf lynched? I mean I had already voted Mau on Day two, so the pre-vote logic to justify it would've been there. Why wouldn't I do that if I was the wolf-lover?

[claphamsa]

ok ill bite
unvite RA
vite BK

[Arles]

Personally, I think you need to look at one of the Rahn's, but that's just me.

Actually I just put in the order to scan Arlie (not that I really think he's a wolf, but if there is a mysterious 4th wolf out there, I might as well scan away. I tend to believe there are just two true wolves left, CR and BK).

RA and Mau, if you guys believe jeheinz72, the game is over and the guests win. He's stated the wolves are CR and Barkeep, with the assumption that DT is the drama queen because of his "deceptive" claim as the seer. We already know Pass is a wolf so there would be no reason for any more scans if JH is telling the truth. And, quite honestly, it doesn't really matter who we vote for tonight as we just need the following two votes to win (CR and Barkeep).

Using logic, there is no reason to rush to jeheinz's claim. Since he was fortunate enough to identify all the wolves, it's a simple win if he's right whether we believe him today or wait for tomorrow. However, DT was only able to name one of the remaining two wolves. So, if he's right and we don't believe him, we may lose the game.

To be honest, I may have believed JH had he just nailed one of the wolves (say Barkeep) and listed two other guests as part of his "seer list". But, since he's given us a full list, there is no risk with voting RA and waiting for tomorrow in the event DT played us. In fact, as a guest, I hope DT played us as the next three votes will be RA, Barkeep and CR and then we win. There is no such luck in the next three weeks if DT is right (that is unless he can seer and find another wolf the next few nights).

[jeheinz72]

Using logic, there is no reason to rush to jeheinz's claim. Since he was fortunate enough to identify all the wolves, it's a simple win if he's right whether we believe him today or wait for tomorrow. However, DT was only able to name one of the remaining two wolves. So, if he's right and we don't believe him, we may lose the game.



The difference is Arlie, if you believe me and we make quick work of the wolves we can still get the major win. If DT is the drama queen then they'll only have one chance to kill the Bride or Groom since it would go lynch-kill-lynch (end).
If you go DT's way it goes badlynch-kill-lynch-kill-lynch (end)

And as far as my list, hey man, I scanned who I scanned. Should I have lied about who I scanned and what the result was? It just seems to me that if I intentionally lied things could come into question that aren't true anyhow, ya know. Kind of like if I lie and then I"m left defending a position that even I know to be untrue. I scanned who I scanned. I gave the results. I'll admit it seems spectacular that I was so lucky, but I was, I don't know what more I can say on that. I've given reasons on why I scanned who I scanned, no one seems to dispute my logic so how far-fetched can it be?

[jeheinz72]

Couldn't what Heinz is saying about DT, he's the drama queen, etc...actually be reversed and Heinz revealed b/c he is the drama queen? Maybe one of the "jobs" of the drama queen was to pull some sort of fake reveal or create drama? Could specifics be written into a role that way?

Yes, I think that is "their" defense. That I'm really the DQ trying to save RA. I can see where one would think that could be true. It just happens that it's NOT. What can I say, DT stayed up later than I get to work :mad:

[Arles]

Again, I'm leaving in a few for yet another meeting, but I will boil it down to a simple concept of risk analysis:

Case 1: JeHe is right and we vote Barkeep. We win after two votes (BK and CR).

Case 2: JeHe is right and we vote RA. We win after three votes (RA, BK, CR).

Case 3: DT is right and we vote RA. We are down to 1 wolf and the DQ. We can make a strong case for JH to be the DQ, but we don't know the final wolf. I'm guessing it's one of Mau, Clap and Schmidty - but it may take 2-4 more weeks to find the last one. Best case, we luck out and win in 2 weeks. Worst case, it takes 2-3 weeks and we barely win.

Case 4: DT is right and we vote BK. We kill a guest (maybe even the bodyguard or important one). We then vote off RA tomorrow, but we don't know the final wolf. Now, we are two weeks in and still need to find the last wolf. Best case, we luck out and win in 4 weeks. Worst case, it takes 5 weeks and all the important guests get found by the wolf.

Case 5: Both are wolves, neither are the seer and it really doesn't matter who we vote for as JeHe and DT are two of the last three wolves. Hopefully the real seer finds the final wolf in the next 3 weeks and we win. Even if they don't, we should still win in 4.

The worst case is easily number 4. Either 1 or 2 are preferred, but given the risk with case 4, why get greedy and choose case 1? The smart play is to vote off RA today and see if he was a wolf. If he is, we still have some work to do but we are in good shape to win. If he isn't, we can vote barkeep and then it's an easy win if he is. If he is not and both "seers" were lying, it will take an extra week to recover but we know two wolves so we should still win.

The more I look at it, here's the order by probability in my mind:

1. DT is a seer, RA is a wolf and Jehe is the DQ.
2. DT and JeHe are both wolves and one is probably the DQ. Barkeep and RA are both guests (one potentially being an important one).
3. Jehe is a seer with DT as the DQ with BK and CR as the last two wolves.

Option 2 does scare me, but there's still no better play than RA as even if we voted DT or JeHe, one might be the DQ and show as a guest. Voting RA has the least amount of risk and gives us a chance to win regardless of which of the three above situations are true. Voting Barkeep gives us the worst chance to win by the numbers.

[Arles]

The difference is Arlie, if you believe me and we make quick work of the wolves we can still get the major win. If DT is the drama queen then they'll only have one chance to kill the Bride or Groom since it would go lynch-kill-lynch (end).
If you go DT's way it goes badlynch-kill-lynch-kill-lynch (end)
IMO, we will lose someone important tonight. If you are the seer, it will probably be the groom (with the groom avoiding death last night) as the seer has no value now. If you are not the seer, it would probably be DT (if he's the seer), the groom or maybe the BG (this is doubtful, though) as the seer can still give value in finding the final wolf.

In your best case, I think the groom dies tonight.

[Arles]

Double dola, if option 2 is the case, I hope the "real" seer speaks up before tonight. If that doesn't happen, then option 2 drops off my radar (unless somehow one of the first two guests killed were the seer and Lathum didn't tell us).

[jeheinz72]

I think what you say is correct Arles, if we want to settle for a minor win. Yes, if we all want to pack our bags, take an easy minor win and call it a day, then fine. But c'mon. Werewolf isn't life or death here, let's get that Major win, it's within our reach, we just need to have the balls to go for it.

Re:Case #4 (i.e. the reason you want risk it basically, and a case that is FALSE) - Don't you think the votes today and for RA tomorrow would then flesh out enough info to get that last wolf anyhow? Plus DT would be alive to make scans (NOT THAT HE'S THE REAL SEER ANYWAY).


I also think you're focusing too much on potential outcomes and not so much about what has happened on past days. Riddle me this, if as you state in the most likely case, I'm the DQ, then why did the votes go down like they did on Day 3? Why would I not try to save someone I know to be a wolf when I easily could have at least made an effort?

Also, I'm in FOUR BBCF leagues. Pass was just in two, so I see why that didn't save him, but I'm in FOUR mayn! :)

[claphamsa]

Also, I'm in FOUR BBCF leagues. Pass was just in two, so I see why that didn't save him, but I'm in FOUR mayn! :)

Maybe if you said you have BOUGHT BBCF four times....

[jeheinz72]

Maybe if you said you have BOUGHT BBCF four times....

Ha, good point!

[Raiders Army]

Because one of you is not a wolf. There is another working with you whom we don't know yet.

So either jeheinz or myself is not a wolf but one of us is? That makes no sense whatsoever. By my logic:

1. Obviously either jeheinz or DT is a wolf (one of them is lying).
2. Obviously you believe DT is telling the true by your vote on me.
3. Therefore you believe jeheinz is a wolf.
4. That means that I am not a wolf.

Why vote for me then?

You don't make any sense which is why I find it hard to see why anyone wouldn't see that you're a wolf.

[Raiders Army]

And come on everyone, as jeheinz pointed out, I was the one who wanted to consolidate votes on two candidates yesterday. I made my switch to Pass at the end to ensure his lynch.

The other thing is that if jeheinz and I are wolves, I would've at least coordinated with him so that he did a reveal that didn't sound so outlandish and then also claim to be either the bride or groom to push you over to voting for DT.

Here's another point, why would the seer come out today? DT came out of nowhere and outed himself as the seer with ONE KNOWN WOLF WITH TWO OTHER WOLVES OUT THERE. If he really were the seer, then he would have kept his mouth shut and quietly voted for me and tried to sway people. He obviously is able to come on later in the day, so why do it in the morning? There was no need to come out at this point.

[Chief Rum]

So either jeheinz or myself is not a wolf but one of us is? That makes no sense whatsoever. By my logic:

1. Obviously either jeheinz or DT is a wolf (one of them is lying).
2. Obviously you believe DT is telling the true by your vote on me.
3. Therefore you believe jeheinz is a wolf.
4. That means that I am not a wolf.

Why vote for me then?

You don't make any sense which is why I find it hard to see why anyone wouldn't see that you're a wolf.

You do understand that the DQ is not a wolf, right?

[Chief Rum]

So either jeheinz or myself is not a wolf but one of us is? That makes no sense whatsoever. By my logic:

1. Obviously either jeheinz or DT is a wolf (one of them is lying).
2. Obviously you believe DT is telling the true by your vote on me.
3. Therefore you believe jeheinz is a wolf.
4. That means that I am not a wolf.

Why vote for me then?

You don't make any sense which is why I find it hard to see why anyone wouldn't see that you're a wolf.

Umm, there seems to be a big break in your logic from #2 to #3. DT never scanned jeheinz.

[jeheinz72]

Yeah, RA, I think what CR means is you're a wolf and I'm the DQ. Which isn't true, but that's the stuff he's schilling on the street to cover himself.

[Raiders Army]

You do understand that the DQ is not a wolf, right?

Yes. So you're saying I am a wolf and the DQ is covering for me. I understand what you said above now.

[Chief Rum]

And come on everyone, as jeheinz pointed out, I was the one who wanted to consolidate votes on two candidates yesterday. I made my switch to Pass at the end to ensure his lynch.

The other thing is that if jeheinz and I are wolves, I would've at least coordinated with him so that he did a reveal that didn't sound so outlandish and then also claim to be either the bride or groom to push you over to voting for DT.

Here's another point, why would the seer come out today? DT came out of nowhere and outed himself as the seer with ONE KNOWN WOLF WITH TWO OTHER WOLVES OUT THERE. If he really were the seer, then he would have kept his mouth shut and quietly voted for me and tried to sway people. He obviously is able to come on later in the day, so why do it in the morning? There was no need to come out at this point.

As noted, you're not both wolves. One of you is the DQ.

As for DT's timing, I'm not sure I would have done it either, but with one wolf dead, and has you on the string, I can't say he was wrong to come out. We lynch you today, and if DT is telling the truth, then there is likely just one wolf left with, what 10 of us? Pretty good odds.

[jeheinz72]

As noted, you're not both wolves. One of you is the DQ.

As for DT's timing, I'm not sure I would have done it either, but with one wolf dead, and has you on the string, I can't say he was wrong to come out. We lynch you today, and if DT is telling the truth, then there is likely just one wolf left with, what 10 of us? Pretty good odds.

No, there are 10 of us.

There are only 2 or 3 of you.

;)

[Raiders Army]

Umm, there seems to be a big break in your logic from #2 to #3. DT never scanned jeheinz.

I never said he said he scanned jeheinz. I will amend it to reflect the DQ:

1. Obviously either jeheinz or DT is the DQ (one of them is lying).
2. Obviously you believe DT is telling the truth by your vote on me.
3. Therefore you believe jeheinz is a DQ.

[mauchow]

Logic still tells me that we should be going with Heinz on this one regardless of the outcome. If he's really yankin' our chain we'd still be in the same spot we were going with DT's route because after getting rid of RA(If he's a wolf) we'd be basically left with no more information on anymore people anyways.

If we go with JH and he ends up being right we're so much further ahead in the game and its pretty much the home stretch then as far as our win goes.

In a nutshell, statistically speaking, we'd be so much better off going with JH than we would DT assuming that both are 'right' in their respects.

IF BARKEEP GOES HOME:

A: He's a wolf, game over pretty much.
B: He's not a wolf. We vote with Daddy T and get rid of Raiders Army and follow that with JeHeinz most likely. So we're basically Losing two bad guys in this stretch and probably three good guys after night actions, those are still okay odds.

IF WE RAIDERS ARMY GOES:

C: Raiders Army is a wolf. We then vote Heinz out unless we want to keep him around because he might be the Drama Queen. Beyond that, we got nothin'. We'll have to rely on getting more information day by day.

D: Raiders Army is not a wolf. We go back to JeH's plan and we're one day behind from where we could've been.

Statistically and logically, going with JH is pretty much the only route we should be going. Based on the votes right now, you can pretty much guarantee that the wolves votes are on RA right now so you won't see any of them coming over most likely but if they don't come over they'll look guilty.

If either of these guys are really a seer, this game is over. If neither of them is a seer, big deal, we aim ourselves at them anyways and we're still standing pretty well.

I hope I made a clear enough point, if I didn't I will try to clarify even more.

And if all that doesn't convince you enough.. there is no reason for Jeheinz to put himself in jeopardy like he did if he was really a bad guy. If he's wrong, he's done, nothing to it.

[Raiders Army]

As noted, you're not both wolves. One of you is the DQ.

As for DT's timing, I'm not sure I would have done it either, but with one wolf dead, and has you on the string, I can't say he was wrong to come out. We lynch you today, and if DT is telling the truth, then there is likely just one wolf left with, what 10 of us? Pretty good odds.

Aw, come on. DT's an experienced player. Why wouldn't he try to sway the vote to me and try to see who would protect me to find that last wolf and/or DQ? He supposedly knew one wolf, yet the DQ and other wolf were still out there. This is a bad play and I don't understand why people don't see it.

[mauchow]

Lots of key roles that need to make a move tonight...

A good bodyguard play is needed..
Quite possibly a move from whoever can change a vote..
Another good scan from seer..

Big day it's been.

[jeheinz72]

Aw, come on. DT's an experienced player. Why wouldn't he try to sway the vote to me and try to see who would protect me to find that last wolf and/or DQ? He supposedly knew one wolf, yet the DQ and other wolf were still out there. This is a bad play and I don't understand why people don't see it.

Hell I'm NOT an experienced player and I knew not to come out so quickly (though it was mighty tempting once I got BK so fast).

[jeheinz72]

RaidersArmy: 6 (DT, NTN, BK, Arlie, olie, CR)
Barkeep: 4 (jeheinz72, RaidersArmy, Mau, clap)

No vote from: path12, Schmidty, Farrah

Here is where we are. We know DT, BK and CR aren't moving. It doesn't sound like Arlie can be convinced. NTN I don't know, Olie seemed like she was still thinking.

IIRC, Path isn't going to be on today. Schmidty has been basically MIA.

I'm about to leave for the day, please god let's not end up with a tie here people, that's the LAST thing anyone should want, it basically gives the baddies, whoever you think they are, a free swipe at the Bride/Groom/Me/Bodyguard

[path12]

hey, lot to catch up on and I'm not going to be online much today. Can anyone give me a quick rundown?

[path12]

Ah, I see Pass was bad. Yay!

[jeheinz72]

hey, lot to catch up on and I'm not going to be online much today. Can anyone give me a quick rundown?

DT is lying about being the Seer, BK and CR are the wolves I caught as the Seer. Pass was a wolf and is dead. Vote for Barkeep.

That about sums it up.

[jeheinz72]

Basicaly Path, here's the real rundown.

DT claims to be the Seer, fingering RA (and clearing CR and NTN, IIRC).
I'm the actual seer and scanned BK (WOLF), DT (Guest, so he's really the Drama Queen or converted), and Cheif Rum (WOLF).

Since I revealed 2nd, no one is believing me and wants to wait and lynch RA first to see if DT is lying. Which is fine, that will produce the end result of us winning, but it'll severely hamper our chances at a Major win.

So you can vote for BK now to go for the Major win or you can vote for RA now just to find out tomorrow that that was the wrong thing to do.

We'll likely win either way.

Oh yeah, and a recap of Day Three's votes show them all voting together and both RA and I making illogical votes (ones that if we were bad we'd be stupid to make). They conveniently ignore these facts.

Yeah, that about sums it up.

[jeheinz72]

...and I'm gone.

Cya tomorrow folks. Godspeed good people. Make the right decision here!

[Raiders Army]

Here's another point to make: since we're conducting simulatenous day/night cycles, there is no use in the bodyguard protecting the jeheinz since he spilled the beans on the wolves left. I'm guessing that DT is counting on being protected since we won't know who's telling the truth until after the lynch/night cycle. In this respect, it leaves it wide open to hit the bride and groom tonight.

To the bodyguard: do not guard DaddyTorgo!

[Lathum]

how is everything Path?

[path12]

Basicaly Path, here's the real rundown.

DT claims to be the Seer, fingering RA (and clearing CR and NTN, IIRC).
I'm the actual seer and scanned BK (WOLF), DT (Guest, so he's really the Drama Queen or converted), and Cheif Rum (WOLF).

Since I revealed 2nd, no one is believing me and wants to wait and lynch RA first to see if DT is lying. Which is fine, that will produce the end result of us winning, but it'll severely hamper our chances at a Major win.

So you can vote for BK now to go for the Major win or you can vote for RA now just to find out tomorrow that that was the wrong thing to do.

We'll likely win either way.

Oh yeah, and a recap of Day Three's votes show them all voting together and both RA and I making illogical votes (ones that if we were bad we'd be stupid to make). They conveniently ignore these facts.

Yeah, that about sums it up.

Post counts around where the reveals went down?

[path12]

how is everything Path?

As good as it could have been, thanks. No major blockage, some plaque that should be able to be managed by diet and medicine. I just have to spend the next couple of days mostly lying down so as to make sure I don't spring a leak where they went in.

[path12]

OK, sort of see how this is going. Here's what strikes me offhand: It looks from the vote count last night that Barkeep was either the or very close to the deciding vote on Pass. I think if he's really the mother-in-law then he doesn't get close to voting for either that person or at that time. So Barkeep seems more likely to be good than bad.

If that's the case, then Heinz is lying. So for the moment:

VOTE JEHEINZ

I'll check back later.

[Passacaglia]

As good as it could have been, thanks. No major blockage, some plaque that should be able to be managed by diet and medicine. I just have to spend the next couple of days mostly lying down so as to make sure I don't spring a leak where they went in.

Sounds like good news, path!

[Raiders Army]

As good as it could have been, thanks. No major blockage, some plaque that should be able to be managed by diet and medicine. I just have to spend the next couple of days mostly lying down so as to make sure I don't spring a leak where they went in.

Glad to hear it! Hopefully the recovery will go well.

[Raiders Army]

OK, sort of see how this is going. Here's what strikes me offhand: It looks from the vote count last night that Barkeep was either the or very close to the deciding vote on Pass. I think if he's really the mother-in-law then he doesn't get close to voting for either that person or at that time. So Barkeep seems more likely to be good than bad.

If that's the case, then Heinz is lying. So for the moment:

VOTE JEHEINZ

I'll check back later.

Here is what happened last night:

7:43 Barkeep votes Pass which makes it

Pass 5 votes
mauboy 3 votes
barkeep 2 votes
clap 2 votes

2 non-votes

8:37 I switch from clap to Pass which makes it

Pass 6 votes
mauboy 3 votes
barkeep 2 votes
clap 1 vote

2 non-votes

Even if the two people who haven’t voted yet vote for mauboy, it won’t save Pass. I was the deciding vote.

9:12 Pass switches from clap to mauboy which makes it

Pass 6 votes
mauboy 4 votes
barkeep 2 votes

2 non-votes

At this point, barkeep can’t switch off pass, because it’ll look bad. DT and Chief Rum are already voting with pass on mauboy to save pass.

At 9:54 Schmidty votes pass, which is the final vote before the deadline.

[Raiders Army]

Any way you cut it, I was the deciding vote to lynch Pass, not barkeep.

[path12]

Any way you cut it, I was the deciding vote to lynch Pass, not barkeep.

Thanks for breaking it down. I think my point still stands though that by being vote 5 and also putting Pass 2 votes ahead at the time of his vote leads me to believe that Barkeep is not the Mother-in-law like Heinz' reveal claims, and which makes this seem like a pretty easy choice.

[Raiders Army]

I debated this...but I think it's a good point in the game for it

I'm the Maid of Honor. I found out last night that Raiders Army is a wolf.
My viewing sequence looked like this.
D1: NTN
D2: CR
D3: Raiders Army

Consequently

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

Okay, but jeheinz is not a wolf. Speculation is that he is the DQ. DT has said that I'm a wolf. In that respect, it does no good to vote for jeheinz because he counts as a villager. Either you believe that I'm a wolf and jeheinz is the DQ, or believe that DT is the DQ, and barkeep and CR are wolves. I'd recommend voting for either myself or barkeep. As illustrated above with the voting, I'm good.

[Raiders Army]

Also, at 7:43 when Barkeep voted there were still two votes left out there and pass was voting for clap. At that point in time, he could've stayed and one of the non-votes and pass could switch to mauboy to make it:

Pass-5 votes
mau-5 votes

barkeep could then switch with the explanation of wanting to avoid a tie.

My vote was the deciding factor in getting pass lynched.

[mauchow]

wth is going to happen tonight?

Here are my thoughts, yet again:

45% Heinz is right
40% Daddy Torgo is right
15% Neither are Seers

For whatever reason, I'm thinking more and more it could be a double fake reveal, which would be absolutely genius on their part, especially if the final wolf has been playing well enough to keep their name completely off everybody's radar. They could slowly, but surely dwindle our numbers down.

Tonight is going to be SO FREAKIN' CRAZY!

*jeopardy theme music*

[claphamsa]

this looks exciting.... too bad Ill be playign hockey at the deadline. :(

I will also be in training all day tommrowo but should be able to post tommorow morning.

[claphamsa]

wth is going to happen tonight?

Here are my thoughts, yet again:

45% Heinz is right
40% Daddy Torgo is right
15% Neither are Seers

For whatever reason, I'm thinking more and more it could be a double fake reveal, which would be absolutely genius on their part, especially if the final wolf has been playing well enough to keep their name completely off everybody's radar. They could slowly, but surely dwindle our numbers down.

Tonight is going to be SO FREAKIN' CRAZY!

*jeopardy theme music*

you sir need to go run a wyoming dynasty......

[DaddyTorgo]

okay. Back and finally getting back online.

[mauchow]

Ugh, still just under two hours to deadline, I can't wait any longer!

[Raiders Army]

Okay. It looks like I'm gone tonight. The wolves are silent, so they get what they wanted. The only thing they didn't count on was jeheinz coming through. Good luck villagers and this is all he wrote...

[Schmidty]

Wakey, wakey. Eating "breakfast" and reading up on stuff.

[Arles]

Make sure we don't have a tie. Right now, RA has a two vote margin, so two votes for BK would mean a tie and the wolves pick one of us off and we are none the wiser.

[mauchow]

JUST in case neither of these guys are the seer, I HIGHLY suggest you scan JeHeinz tonight. This way we can find out if Heinz isn't a part of some dramatic scheme as a wolf in the scenario I explained.

If not Heinz, then I don't know who to scan.

[mauchow]

Make sure we don't have a tie. Right now, RA has a two vote margin, so two votes for BK would mean a tie and the wolves pick one of us off and we are none the wiser.

Precisely. I already said that I'm going to be changing my vote if it is a tie at 8:59 Central time. No way a tie does anything for us today. The first tie I think worked out great as I don't think Olie is a wolf and I know I'm not.

Regardless.. NO TIE WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT, I don't care if it means me switching my vote over, it does us no good to have a tie at this point.

[Schmidty]

Make sure we don't have a tie. Right now, RA has a two vote margin, so two votes for BK would mean a tie and the wolves pick one of us off and we are none the wiser.

Well, that doesn't give me many options then, does it? I can either vote RA and throw away a vote and look bad in the process, or throw away a vote on some random and look bad in the process.

[Arles]

For a summary, here are the options:

1. Believe JeHeinz and agree that he was lucky enough to seer all three wolves in three nights. The remaining wolves would then be DT (drama queen) , Chief Run and Barkeep. jeheinz72, RaidersArmy, Mau and clap believe this.

2. Believe Daddy Torgo who was 1-3 as a seer and found Raiders Army. That means that Raiders Army is a wolf, JeHeinz is probably the DQ and one wolf is unknown (Mau?). DT, NTN, BK, Arlie, olie and CR believe this. Path seems to believe this to but he voted for JeHeinz instead of RA like the rest.

3. Neither are a seer, which means the real seer is one of the rest of us and both DT and JeHeinz are wolves. Seems unlikely as the real seer would probably have surfaced (unless they were somehow voted off).

[mauchow]

See if I ever by BBPF, Arles.

[mauchow]

Shoot... buy.

[claphamsa]

Well, that doesn't give me many options then, does it? I can either vote RA and throw away a vote and look bad in the process, or throw away a vote on some random and look bad in the process.

its ok no matter how bad you look, youll still be better looking than mau :P

[mauchow]

Whatever, Clap.

I'm the only guy in the game so far that has actually voted for everybody involved right now.

I voted for DT and BK prior to all these reveals. Both votes are on opposite spectrums, so I don't know what you have on me except I know you have a major obsession with my six pack abs.

[Schmidty]

Blah. I don't like this vote, but I seem to have no choice. And yes, if he's a wolf, I'm sure you guys will use it against me. Oh well, I don't know what else to do.

Vote Raiders Army

[Arles]

This is my first time playing WW, so I could be way off. But, I would be pretty surprised if RA isn't a wolf and JeHeinz's story is accurate. The only thing that worries me is if both DT and JeHeinz are in it together (ie, one is a wolf and one is a DQ) with us losing the real seer when Neon Chaos left. If that's the case, we are in bad sorts. The problem is that there's no better play than RA as it's way too risk to vote for DT or JeHeinz since either might as be a guest as the DQ.

[oliegirl]

Whatever, Clap.

I'm the only guy in the game so far that has actually voted for everybody involved right now.

I voted for DT and BK prior to all these reveals. Both votes are on opposite spectrums, so I don't know what you have on me except I know you have a major obsession with my six pack abs.

Um, pics please!!!!!

:D

[mauchow]

This is my first time playing WW, so I could be way off. But, I would be pretty surprised if RA isn't a wolf and JeHeinz's story is accurate. The only thing that worries me is if both DT and JeHeinz are in it together (ie, one is a wolf and one is a DQ) with us losing the real seer when Neon Chaos left. If that's the case, we are in bad sorts. The problem is that there's no better play than RA as it's way too risk to vote for DT or JeHeinz since either might as be a guest as the DQ.

I'm almost positive that its going to be either:

A: Heinz is Seer, DT isn't.
B: Heinz or DT isn't Seer.

IMHO, those two scenarios, are more likely now than DT being the Seer.

As a wolf/DQ, its the absolute worst move Heinz could have made, UNLESS they are both NOT the Seer.

I just don't see the point of Heinz lying about it at all and get his name thrown into the mix when he's got nothing against him prior to today.

[mauchow]

Um, pics please!!!!!

:D
http://www.stomach-fitness.com/images/tn_sixpackabs.jpg

[mauchow]

Hopefully the FOFC sim will be done soon so I can watch my game of the week against Notre Dame while waiting for this to get rolling.

[oliegirl]

http://www.stomach-fitness.com/images/tn_sixpackabs.jpg

I'm a happy girl now...thanks ;)

OK, back to WW...

[Raiders Army]

For a summary, here are the options:

1. Believe JeHeinz and agree that he was lucky enough to seer all three wolves in three nights. The remaining wolves would then be DT (drama queen) , Chief Run and Barkeep. jeheinz72, RaidersArmy, Mau and clap believe this.

2. Believe Daddy Torgo who was 1-3 as a seer and found Raiders Army. That means that Raiders Army is a wolf, JeHeinz is probably the DQ and one wolf is unknown (Mau?). DT, NTN, BK, Arlie, olie and CR believe this. Path seems to believe this to but he voted for JeHeinz instead of RA like the rest.

3. Neither are a seer, which means the real seer is one of the rest of us and both DT and JeHeinz are wolves. Seems unlikely as the real seer would probably have surfaced (unless they were somehow voted off).

Dude, slant it whatever way you want. I bought BBCF and TPF but I've never played either. ;)

Why are so blind to see that I was the one who caused pass to be lynched?

[mauchow]

There are still enough people around to swing the vote BK's way but there is no way any of the wolves are going to be switching over at this point in time.

[Raiders Army]

There are still enough people around to swing the vote BK's way but there is no way any of the wolves are going to be switching over at this point in time.

I don't think any of the wolves are going to switch at this point. This is their play so we'll see what happens. This will be extremely interesting once jeheinz is cleared and barkeep, CR, and DT are condemned.

Remember this post once this ordinary villager is dead.

[Raiders Army]

also, bodyguard DO NOT GUARD DADDY TORGO. I know this falls on deaf ears and it will probably happen, but he is not the bride nor groom. He is the DQ. The wolves will attempt to hit the bride or groom tonight to prevent major victory for us (I count myself, since I'm sacrificing myself for you).

[mauchow]

No point in anymore chit-chat. It looks like this is the way its going to be now. I'm fine with it... if everything is truly falling into place the way I hope, then we're going to be sitting just fine after today.

[Raiders Army]

My last attempt: arlie, what do I need to do to convince you? I was the swing vote last night on pass. If I were a wolf, would that make any sense???

[Passacaglia]

Hopefully the FOFC sim will be done soon so I can watch my game of the week against Notre Dame while waiting for this to get rolling.

Blah, stupid bye week in the FOFC league as I get ready for my... *shudder* bowl game. Blech. But hey, season opener in the BBBBCF!

[Raiders Army]

And schmidty, does it make any sense for Daddy Torgo to come out right after last night's lynch instead of trying to sway the vote if he really is a seer? That makes no sense at all. He didn't hit another wolf and he's dead within two days if he's telling the truth.

[Raiders Army]

I wanna live...really. I want to see the wolves outed for what they are. Screw it, my death will mean the death of the wolves. I just don't understand why you guys (and olie and farrah) can't see reason here. They've made zero compelling arguments and are manipulating you.

[Raiders Army]

Just FYI, I probably need to visit the drunk guy thread.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

I wanna live...really. I want to see the wolves outed for what they are. Screw it, my death will mean the death of the wolves. I just don't understand why you guys (and olie and farrah) can't see reason here. They've made zero compelling arguments and are manipulating you.

Actually you said one little thing that I find rather interesting. You said:

Okay. It looks like I'm gone tonight. The wolves are silent, so they get what they wanted. The only thing they didn't count on was jeheinz coming through. Good luck villagers and this is all he wrote.

How do you know the wolves are silent, if you don't know who the wolves are?

:)

[Raiders Army]

Actually you said one little thing that I find rather interesting. You said:



How do you know the wolves are silent, if you don't know who the wolves are?

:)

I know who the wolves are because jeheinz said they were Chief Rum and Barkeep. Daddy Torgo is the DQ and he's quiet as well.

I find this somewhat maddening that Arlie is going with the odds instead of common sense. Why would I be a wolf? Why would jeheinz lie?

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

I know who the wolves are because jeheinz said they were Chief Rum and Barkeep. Daddy Torgo is the DQ and he's quiet as well.

I find this somewhat maddening that Arlie is going with the odds instead of common sense. Why would I be a wolf? Why would jeheinz lie?

Well, Arlie is a stat guy. Of course he's going with odds. :p

FTR - I'm not entirely sold on either theory.

[Raiders Army]

To follow up, Arlie can ask the question all day on what are the odds of jeheinz hitting two wolves and the DQ. The question that the wolves (BK and CR) and the DQ (DT) haven't answered is that why would I vote for Pass at a crucial time if I were a wolf? Why would jeheinz try to cover me when he wasn't under suspicion? Why would Daddy Torgo, a supposed seer, come out when he didn't have to?

[Raiders Army]

The odds will prevent major victory. I won't lie: I wanna be there when we achieve it. Chances are, you will not achieve major victory if you vote me.

[Arles]

The BBCF card is a good one, and I don't like going after all these longtime BBCF players. That said, I just can't get by the idea that JeHeinz's story is too fantastic. Like I said earlier, if he would have just mentioned one wolf, I might have been swayed. But the odds that his first three seer picks ended up all being wolves. And, not only that, the one wolf he didn't see was voted off yesterday.

As I said, if he is right - I will apologize to RA and get on board to vote off Barkeep and CR to win the game. But, it just doesn't smell right to be that lucky.

[mauchow]

Still no updated FOFC file....... been clicking refresh in here for the past hour. Sad.

[Raiders Army]

The BBCF card is a good one, and I don't like going after all these longtime BBCF players. That said, I just can't get by the idea that JeHeinz's story is too fantastic. Like I said earlier, if he would have just mentioned one wolf, I might have been swayed. But the odds that his first three seer picks ended up all being wolves. And, not only that, the one wolf he didn't see was voted off yesterday.

As I said, if he is right - I will apologize to RA and get on board to vote off Barkeep and CR to win the game. But, it just doesn't smell right to be that lucky.

Okay, but is it too fantastic to be true? If he were a liar, wouldn't the best lie be a believable one? Get off the "too fantastic to be true" and look at the votes last night. How can you vote for me? I was the nail in the coffin for Pass. Daddy Torgo, Chief Rum, and Barkeep cannot dispute that fact.

[mauchow]

Arles' vote won't be enough to swing the votes around.

[mauchow]

We need an updated count anyways..

[mauchow]

Farrah and Arles, are you two in the same room giggling at each other or in separate rooms? Just curious.

[Raiders Army]

Okay...since it's coming down to the last 10 minutes or so, I did play TPF for a season or two. That's the truth. I downloaded a mod for BBCF last month too.

I'm dirty, but I'm an ordinary villager. Any last minute questions I can answer to sway anyone?

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Farrah and Arles, are you two in the same room giggling at each other or in separate rooms? Just curious.

Totally different locations - I'm at the office.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Okay...since it's coming down to the last 10 minutes or so, I did play TPF for a season or two. That's the truth. I downloaded a mod for BBCF last month too.

I'm dirty, but I'm an ordinary villager. Any last minute questions I can answer to sway anyone?

Define dirty.

[Arles]

To follow up, Arlie can ask the question all day on what are the odds of jeheinz hitting two wolves and the DQ. The question that the wolves (BK and CR) and the DQ (DT) haven't answered is that why would I vote for Pass at a crucial time if I were a wolf?
This is a strong argument. It's the one idea (as well as DT not using a seer choice on Mau on the first day) that bother me with this. I will put it this way, I am more confident that JeHeinz is wrong than I am that you are a wolf. Yet, if I don't by JH's story, the only vote that makes sense is you (so I can also know if DT is telling the truth).

Why would Daddy Torgo, a supposed seer, come out when he didn't have to?
The only thing I can think of is that he knew the wolves had hit either the groom, seer (BG) or the BG in back-to-back nights (which would be why no one was voted off). This means that the wolves know atleast one important guess and, given we removed one wolf, waiting for everyone to catch on to the other might be too long a wait.

Again, neither DT's or JH's story is airtight. If I took them each in a vaccum based on actions, I would say DT's is about 50% believable and JH's is 25% believable. But, given no other seer has come out, logic would dictate that one of them is right. So, I'm leaning DT.

While this may not help you, RA, we should know atleast one wolf by tomorrow and potentially the final 3 in a few steps either way. If RA is a wolf, JeHe is probably the DQ and we just need one more wolf (prob Mau - sorry bud). If RA is not a wolf, we will probably vote Barkeep. If he's a guest, that means both DT and JH are wolves. If Barkeep is a wolf then JH hit the jackpot and we win the next day.

[mauchow]

I'd rather you be giggling in the same location.. but okay. :)

[mauchow]

No problem Arlie, just playing the game, I understand.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

vote count?

[Raiders Army]

Define dirty.

I lied about playing TPF. :D

I really haven't played BBCF though. I probably will when I go to Kansas City next month for two weeks though.

[Lathum]

5 minutes

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

I lied about playing TPF. :D

I really haven't played BBCF though. I probably will when I go to Kansas City next month for two weeks though.

:eek:

[Raiders Army]

This is a strong argument. It's the one idea (as well as DT not using a seer choice on Mau on the first day) that bother me with this. I will put it this way, I am more confident that JeHeinz is wrong than I am that you are a wolf. Yet, if I don't by JH's story, the only vote that makes sense is you (so I can also know if DT is telling the truth).


The only thing I can think of is that he knew the wolves had hit either the groom, seer (BG) or the BG in back-to-back nights (which would be why no one was voted off). This means that the wolves know atleast one important guess and, given we removed one wolf, waiting for everyone to catch on to the other might be too long a wait.

Again, neither DT's or JH's story is airtight. If I took them each in a vaccum based on actions, I would say DT's is about 50% believable and JH's is 25% believable. But, given no other seer has come out, logic would dictate that one of them is right. So, I'm leaning DT.

While this may not help you, RA, we should know atleast one wolf by tomorrow and potentially the final 3 in a few steps either way. If RA is a wolf, JeHe is probably the DQ and we just need one more wolf (prob Mau - sorry bud). If RA is not a wolf, we will probably vote Barkeep. If he's a guest, that means both DT and JH are wolves. If Barkeep is a wolf then JH hit the jackpot and we win the next day.

Okay, but be forewarned that there is some ploy at work here. I don't know what it is, but think about these things:

1. Why did Daddy Torgo put himself under the gun like this? He's the DQ, so why would he sacrifice himself for the wolves?

2. Is there a possibility that more than just Chief Rum and Barkeep are wolves?

3. Go for the wolves first tomorrow.

4. Bodyguard, do NOT guard Daddy Torgo.

Finally, at least Daddy Torgo will not live to see the end of the game, so that gives me some solace as well as my sacrifice for the villagers.

[Raiders Army]

:eek:

Uh, just to be clear, I lied about NOT playing TPF. I played it for a couple of seasons.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Vote mau

[Raiders Army]

Good bye everyone. You suck Daddy Torgo! :D

[Raiders Army]

Vote mau




That vote meant nothing!

[Raiders Army]

Arrrrgh. Maybe I see why the wolves think they can win by doing this.

[Lathum]

deadline

[Lathum]

The vote swings to Raiders Army after some back and forth accusations. The majority decides he must check out. Suddenly Claphamsa steps up and proclaims “This is my wedding and I won’t stand for RA not being there. Barkeep must go. I never liked him anyway.”

Stunned Baarkeep shouts “ I never wanted my son to marry you anyway!” He grabs ChiefRum and says “ I wanted you to marry her” They begin to storm out of the bar and ChiefRum shouts “ There will be no wedding” ChiefRum grabs a wine glass off the bar, shatters it and jabs it into Farrahs throat. Farrah clutch’s her throat and slumps over dead.

Claphasma screams and runs to her dead fiances side and begins to weep. The rest of the guests overwhelm Barkeep and Chiefrum and detain them until the police arrive. They then all decide to celebrate Farrah Irish wake style since the wedding was paid for.

Game over, guests win an minor victory.

[mauchow]

Well, I suggested earlier to check out one of the Rahn's as the seer and I hope they did especially Farrah now. LOL

[Arles]

If DT is the drama queen, then JeHeinz's story is hopefully somewhat true. If that isn't, then they were in it together and both will be gone. I am a little nervous, though, something still doesn't quite smell right in all of this. The only gaping hole is if the seer could have been voted off without us knowing (either RendeR or neon). If that's the case, then most of my logic goes out the window and we may be in trouble.

[Raiders Army]

wow. Thanks clap!

[mauchow]

Holy fuck, what the hell just happened?

[Raiders Army]

fun game, but DT why the fake reveal at this point?

[DaddyTorgo]

BAWHAHAHHA


at least we ruined the major victory for you all

really...when there were no night-kills for 2 days in a row I knew I needed to pull the fake reveal...i almost shit my pants when jeheinz revealed with the names of both of the other wolves though. I was hoping best-case scenario for a seer to counter with neither of the other wolves, or for one of the people I named to come forward with some other role and give the wolves some guidance as to who to go after. When I saw that post by jeheinz though, I knew the game was as good as over.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

I'm dead. I was the groom.

[Arles]

Wow, so JeHeinz was the seer then and nabbed all three in three straight votes. Thanks to the bride for saving our bacon on the win.

[mauchow]

I'm still shocked.

[Raiders Army]

I'm guessing clap was the bride (could duke the vote)
Farrah was the groom (minor victory because she died)
barkeep was the mother-in-law
Chief Rum was the last wolf.

[mauchow]

That was incredible.

I'll say it again.

I'm still shocked.

I still can't believe you guys fell for DT's crap. Hahahah!

[oliegirl]

Holy fuck, what the hell just happened?

Well, Clap was the bride, Farrah was the Groom...Barkeep was the Mother of the Bride, and Chief Rum was the Maid of Honor or Drama Queen...I think, I'm kinda confused too...

But we won! Woohoo! :D

[DaddyTorgo]

That was incredible.

I'll say it again.

I'm still shocked.

I still can't believe you guys fell for DT's crap. Hahahah!

that was my first ever fake-reveal-as-seer. Figured there was no better game in which to give it a shot.

[Raiders Army]

Wow, so JeHeinz was the seer then and nabbed all three in three straight votes. Thanks to the bride for saving our bacon on the win.

You would've won anyhow if I had died. The only one who needs to thank clap is me. :)

What I don't get is that you saw the truth yet failed to believe it because it was too unbelievable. If you were trying to lie about the game, wouldn't you make a lie that is believable?

[Lathum]

OK, I ended the game tonight because there is no way the wolves could have won.

I have been playing werewolf since the first ever FOFC game and I have never seen such a crazy run of luck.

Jeheinze scanned BK night 1, DT night 2 and CR night 3. In that time Pass was eliminated. To compound things the wolves kill attempt on Farrah night 2 was blocked because she was the groom. Then when they went back the next night to kill her Arles selected her for protection.

[Arles]

I was the body guard and knew we were hosed. Here's my voting to protect:

First night: no one (didn't get in on time because of my PDA).
Second Night: myself (no one came by)

When no one died on the second night and I knew something was up. So, I protected Farrah the third night as I had no idea who the groom was and figured I could atleast get credit from her if she was just a guest ;) When I got the message that someone tried to sneak in Farrah's room - I knew she would be toast tonight as she used her autoprotect in week 2 and I can't protect the same person two nights in a row.

That's why I wasn't worried about the major victory and went with the odds on just winning.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

To compound things the wolves kill attempt on Farrah night 2 was blocked because she was the groom. Then when they went back the next night to kill her Arles selected her for protection.

Dude, why you guys hating? Two nights in a row!

[Raiders Army]

that was my first ever fake-reveal-as-seer. Figured there was no better game in which to give it a shot.

I think you did it too soon. Had jeheinz come on and only outed one wolf, you would've been done for. Ironically, it worked out in your favor that what he did was too unbelievable for most people. Thanks mauboy for believing.

[mauchow]

Yeah, that is crazy.

It would've been pretty much straightforward for us the rest of the way. I'm sure Arles would've found a way to lynch me though.

[DaddyTorgo]

Dude, why you guys hating? Two nights in a row!

maybe because they figured you were the groom?? idk

[DaddyTorgo]

I think you did it too soon. Had jeheinz come on and only outed one wolf, you would've been done for. Ironically, it worked out in your favor that what he did was too unbelievable for most people. Thanks mauboy for believing.

when should I have waited till? I figured with every night that went by for it too that the odds of him hitting a wolf were going up.

[mauchow]

I think you did it too soon. Had jeheinz come on and only outed one wolf, you would've been done for. Ironically, it worked out in your favor that what he did was too unbelievable for most people. Thanks mauboy for believing.

I didn't need much convincing. It was pretty obvious to me and I don't know why it wasn't to others.. but it's okay. There was no way we'd lose if one of them truly was the Seer.

[Raiders Army]

I was the body guard and knew we were hosed. Here's my voting to protect:

First night: no one (didn't get in on time because of my PDA).
Second Night: myself (no one came by)

When no one died on the second night and I knew something was up. So, I protected Farrah the third night as I had no idea who the groom was and figured I could atleast get credit from her if she was just a guest ;) When I got the message that someone tried to sneak in Farrah's room - I knew she would be toast tonight as she used her autoprotect in week 2 and I can't protect the same person two nights in a row.

That's why I wasn't worried about the major victory and went with the odds on just winning.

Ah, I understand there. It makes perfect sense with that bit of information. I would've done the same exact thing.

[oliegirl]

I was the body guard and knew we were hosed. Here's my voting to protect:

First night: no one (didn't get in on time because of my PDA).
Second Night: myself (no one came by)

When no one died on the second night and I knew something was up. So, I protected Farrah the third night as I had no idea who the groom was and figured I could atleast get credit from her if she was just a guest ;) When I got the message that someone tried to sneak in Farrah's room - I knew she would be toast tonight as she used her autoprotect in week 2 and I can't protect the same person two nights in a row.

That's why I wasn't worried about the major victory and went with the odds on just winning.

Did you realize you've been using week instead of day/night the entire game? :D

[Lathum]

I am curious for feedback. Obviously it seems like the game was inbalanced but I'm not sure it was.

[Raiders Army]

when should I have waited till? I figured with every night that went by for it too that the odds of him hitting a wolf were going up.

I would've waited until later today. I would've tried to swing votes onto me and then fake revealed later.

[Raiders Army]

I don't think the game was inbalanced. It was just some good intuition by jeheinz who gets Player of the Game for me.

I also have to throw a shout out to mauboy who was right on and clap who saved me. :)

[DaddyTorgo]

BK/CR - Did you all pickup on me being the drama queen before my fake reveal, or no?

[Arles]

sorry, meant night ;) Honestly, if Farrah wasn't my wife and I could maybe get potential kudos for protecting her, I probably would have selected to protect Oliegirl on the 3rd night. For some reason, Farrah, Olie and RA were the three I was debating on being the groom. I had no idea Clap was the bride, I figured he was a wolf before all this shook out.

The one thing I don't get is how Clap knew to switch from RA to Barkeep? I guess if you look at RA without DT's message, you wouldn't figure he would be a wolf. Still, that was a gutsy call that paid off.