Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, is the new deadline moved to Thursday night at 9PM EST?

OK, guys - when do you think Coffee was turned? I guarded him on Night 4, so it could have been Night 3 or Night 5. This makes a big difference in terms of trying to figure out who he would protect.

[Abe Sargent]

I don't know that there is any way to determine it.

-Anxiety

[Blade6119]

Id say night 3...like i said on day 4, he was all too happy to follow me wherever i went..but im not sure

[Barkeep49]

Umm hello? Who was with cronin early on? Oh that's right it was me.

I've been one clean cocksucker. Of course Coffee was going to be honest about his scans. He was coming out with all humans cause then if we ever tested who he scanned that person would be clean. DUH! Look at who could have been converted early on. Look at who tried to steer us wrong yesterday. Twasn't me. It was tangle.

Vote tanglewood

[Barkeep49]

Listen I can't tell you what a mistake you cocksucers are making. Go back and read my fucking reaction to being vote on and then compare it to CW's. One of us was fucking outraged and one of us was resigned. And I wasn't the one who was fucking resigned. This is our chance to turn the fucking game around and we're going to blow it in a 1-1 trade because people want to look at the guy who's been busting his balls to help this team.

Maybe the reason there was a last minute effort to save me is because I'm fucking innocent.

[hoopsguy]

If it was Night 3, then the people he cleared since then are Cronin (announced morning 4), Blade, and Barkeep.

I don't think that they are all Things, because that would be retarded and CW is an experienced player. But the question for me is would he try to sneak one in there or just keep clearing villagers in hopes we would chase his list after he was flame-broiled?

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, if I was the seer I would clear villagers every night. But if he was converted awhile back then that becomes a little less interesting.

If you think that CW was converted last night, then I think Barkeep is very unlikely to be a Thing.

If he was converted on Night 3, then I think it is very unlikely that Cronin was a Thing that night, and with each night maybe a little more likely that he/they got cute.

If he was converted prior to his reveal on Day 3 (particularly Night 1), then just about anything is possible because the Things have been running all over us and they would be well advised to mix up their list to avoid giving us a pattern to look at.

[Barkeep49]

Well one could argue that you are more likely to be the shitface that has slipped through. We don't know the effects of the bodyguard guarding a shitface. Could be quite toxic for the bodyguard's health, after all. I'm not pointing fingers because I think the most likely situation is CW wasn't trying to slip anyone by and was simply playing it safe by announcing known villagers. Hence why I want to look at tangle and look at him hard.

[JeeberD]

Unvote Barkee[

I don't necessarily like him, but I agree that it would be stupid to clear him if he was a Thing when CW knew he was likely to go down...

[JeeberD]

Dola-

Stupid typo.. :mad:

Unvote BarkeeP

[path12]

First of all, YEAH!

Secondly, I don't think there's any way that he was converted on night 5. At that point, you've had a clean run, you know Coffee's a big suspect, and you have no idea if he is being bodyguarded or not. There's no payoff there, and you risk a double kill day when if you go for someone easy you're almost at a point where you can swing the vote any way you want.

Nope. I'd bet CW was converted on night 3.

[hoopsguy]

I don't know the effect of guarding a shitface either, which is why I've tried to avoid doing so throughout the game.

Looking at non-Barkeep candidates with votes right now, I would probably go Tanglewood over Jeeber based on his duke power. There were only two nights to convert him (Night 5) if you accept that he would not keep his Duke power as a Thing. With Tanglewood there have been more options to convert him (five nights versus two) and he is the kind of UTR guy I would probably speculate on if I was playing as a Thing.

I still think we benefit from having some kind of consensus versus being scatttered, but we have a full 24 hours instead of 12, one less Thing, and more time for Kingfc to get up to speed so he can make a vote this time around.

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[mckerney]

I don't necessarily like him, but I agree that it would be stupid to clear him if he was a Thing when CW knew he was likely to go down...

Or, he'd know everyone would think it'd be stupid to clear him, taking suspicion away from him and making it a brilliant move.

[Barkeep49]

Or, he'd know everyone would think it'd be stupid to clear him, taking suspicion away from him and making it a brilliant move.
Or he'd know that people would think he's brilliant and so he wouldn't do it since then it would be what everyone would suspect.

[WVUFAN]

I guess it's something to look at tomorrow. Not gonna be enough time now.

I went home this weekend. We don't have CPU access from my parent's home.

[st.cronin]

The best argument against voting for BK is that he was with me early in the dogpile on CW. He obviously hasn't been converted SINCE then.

The best argument for voting for Jeeber was that he was the first one to object to voting for CW. I say he's a Thing. I say if you don't vote for him today, you are also a Thing.

I was right about CW. I am right about this.

[path12]

The best argument against voting for BK is that he was with me early in the dogpile on CW. He obviously hasn't been converted SINCE then.

The best argument for voting for Jeeber was that he was the first one to object to voting for CW. I say he's a Thing. I say if you don't vote for him today, you are also a Thing.

I was right about CW. I am right about this.

What if Jeeber can duke it again?

[WVUFAN]

The best argument against voting for BK is that he was with me early in the dogpile on CW. He obviously hasn't been converted SINCE then.

The best argument for voting for Jeeber was that he was the first one to object to voting for CW. I say he's a Thing. I say if you don't vote for him today, you are also a Thing.

I was right about CW. I am right about this.

You convinced me.

VOTE JEEBERD

[Barkeep49]

Jeeber was indeed the first, and by far most vocal, against voting for CW.

[st.cronin]

What if Jeeber can duke it again?

Typically that's a 1 time power. If it's not, it wouldn't make any sense for him to retain it as a Thing, because then the humans could never win. So if he CAN duke, and he's clean, hopefully he dukes a Thing. But if he's a Thing he won't be able to duke.

[Barkeep49]

What if Jeeber can duke it again?
Considering mine was a 1 timer, and he didn't use the first time he could, I'm guessing it's not. But that's a good question: Jeeber is your ability 1 time or not?

[st.cronin]

TRADE TO ANNOUNCE:

Chiefs receive:
2006 2nd round pick
2006 3th round pick
2007 3nd round pick

Lions receive:
2006 1st round pick

I think they've got their eye on Santonio Holmes.

[Barkeep49]

I'll be around tomorrow morning and for a couple of hours before lynch. So plenty of time for me to answer any questions those of you suspicous of me might have.

[st.cronin]

The worst thing that can possibly happen is multiple suspects. We need a dogpile on somebody. That's how we got CW. Jeeber's the best suspect based on recent voting record.

[Swaggs]

The worst thing that can possibly happen is multiple suspects. We need a dogpile on somebody. That's how we got CW. Jeeber's the best suspect based on recent voting record.

Agreed. I am just catching up here and everyone is all over the place.

Does anyone have a current vote count for tonight? And, is there anyway that we can we narrow the multiple suspects into one or two and solidify ourselves?

[Blade6119]

Did the night ever process? I must have missed it...

[st.cronin]

Did the night ever process? I must have missed it...

We caught a thing. They get no night cycle.

[hoopsguy]

Blade, no night when we catch a Thing. So on to the next day.

Vote count as of Post #2027:

Jeeber - Cronin (1995), WVUFAN (2019)
Barkeep - Anxiety (1991), mckerney (1999)
Tanglewood - Barkeep (2004), Hoopsguy (2012)

[Swaggs]

Did the night ever process? I must have missed it...

No night. We get another try to nail a Thing before the next night action.

[Schmidty]

I think they've got their eye on Santonio Holmes.

Haha.

I suck.

[st.cronin]

Anxiety and mcerney:

Voting for BK makes no sense. Look at how the last vote unfolded: He was right there at the gun, pushing hard for CW. If he's dirty, that's the most low-percentage move ever. He basically got CW lynched.

I say he's not a Thing. I'll consider other candidates, but let's keep it simple:

Jeeber was the one who didn't want to go along with testing CW, insisting he was clean. That looks bad. Don't assume he's being sneaky; assume he's not on our side. Test him. It's the high-percentage shot.

This game gets lost when people try to out-think themselves.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, your strong stance on Coffee Warlord certainly gives you quite a bit of credibility and I agree that a split vote invites Thing mischief. That said, I considered Jeeber and rejected him initially for the reasons listed in Post #2012 (same page, scroll up).

So, do you think he was an early convert who kept his power as a Thing, a late convert (last couple of days?) or do you not care at all to try and figure this out as part of your vote-Jeeber strategy today?

[st.cronin]

Cronin, your strong stance on Coffee Warlord certainly gives you quite a bit of credibility and I agree that a split vote invites Thing mischief. That said, I considered Jeeber and rejected him initially for the reasons listed in Post #2012 (same page, scroll up).

So, do you think he was an early convert who kept his power as a Thing, a late convert (last couple of days?) or do you not care at all to try and figure this out as part of your vote-Jeeber strategy today?

My guess would be choice 1, but it doesn't really matter. His play in the last vote is extremely shifty. Note that he then changed his vote, perhaps hoping that people would forget that he resisted the CW thing.

[st.cronin]

hoops (and those inclined to listen to him):

There's no reason to think you're either a Thing or not a Thing. As far as I'm concerned, BK and myself are the only surefire non-Things. I understand wanting to test Tanglewood, but I think Jeeber is the smarter play. Everybody else (Blade, etc) is tied for second place on my list. Hopefully BK will see things my way, as well, before the deadline.

[hoopsguy]

One more argument against Jeeber: he is the only guy to not vote for Coffee or Saldana (post #417 has near-deadline results, he votes for Dubb, who was human after a blood test the next day).

Innocent because a Thing would have a better voting record or guilty of trying to protect his own both times?


I'm less inclined to give credit for voting for a Thing both times, due to the four conversions in between. But here are the players who have voted for two Things: Barkeep, Raiders, mckerney, Hoopsguy, Path12 (same people who voted for Saldana were all on Coffee today).

I guarded Barkeep that night, so I really think there is only a three day window for him to have been converted (Days 3 - 5) which for me clears him more than most.

If you believe Coffee was still a good guy at the end of Night 2, then you trust his clear of Raiders from that night. Again, only leaving a three day window for him to have been converted (Days 3 - 5).

[Swaggs]

One more argument against Jeeber: he is the only guy to not vote for Coffee or Saldana (post #417 has near-deadline results, he votes for Dubb, who was human after a blood test the next day).

Innocent because a Thing would have a better voting record or guilty of trying to protect his own both times?


I'm less inclined to give credit for voting for a Thing both times, due to the four conversions in between. But here are the players who have voted for two Things: Barkeep, Raiders, mckerney, Hoopsguy, Path12 (same people who voted for Saldana were all on Coffee today).

I guarded Barkeep that night, so I really think there is only a three day window for him to have been converted (Days 3 - 5) which for me clears him more than most.

If you believe Coffee was still a good guy at the end of Night 2, then you trust his clear of Raiders from that night. Again, only leaving a three day window for him to have been converted (Days 3 - 5).

I follow you, for the most part, but don't we all agree that Jeeber was cleared when he pulled the Duke move off? If so, the saldana non-vote is pretty irrelevant.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I was trying to figure out why Barkeep was in your "most trusted" circle instead of Raiders, since RA was the 2nd to vote for CW. Figured I would post what I think is the answer here for those who might have been trying to figure out the same thing.

Votes: Cronin (1869), Raiders (1878), Barkeep (1929)

But Cronin and Barkeep discussed CW prior to casting votes, in posts #1854 - 1860.

[st.cronin]

I follow you, for the most part, but don't we all agree that Jeeber was cleared when he pulled the Duke move off? If so, the saldana non-vote is pretty irrelevant.

Not neccesarily. It's conceivable that he was still Duke as a Thing.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, I don't 100% agree that Jeebs would have lost his power when converted. The question was posed to Schmidty, who said he would not answer it because that would be potentially unbalancing info (can look up the post if you like, but will take some time to find).

I've worked with the assumption that is what would happen - he would lose the Duke power when converted - because I think that is how I would implement that mechanic. But it isn't a sure thing (no pun intended).

[st.cronin]

Cronin, I was trying to figure out why Barkeep was in your "most trusted" circle instead of Raiders, since RA was the 2nd to vote for CW. Figured I would post what I think is the answer here for those who might have been trying to figure out the same thing.

Votes: Cronin (1869), Raiders (1878), Barkeep (1929)

But Cronin and Barkeep discussed CW prior to casting votes, in posts #1854 - 1860.

Yes, basically BK and I came up with CW as the ideal target. Using the same logic, I am trying to rally us around Jeeber. For some reason BK is more interested in Tangle. It would be nice if we were both right, but that's pretty unlikely.

Keep this in mind about Jeeber: as somebody tested and cleared early, he would have made an inviting target for conversion.

[kingfc22]

Doh! First day in the game and I miss the vote.

Glad we got a thing.

VOTE BARKEEP

[st.cronin]

:(

[Abe Sargent]

Unvote Barkeep

Vote Jeeber

[hoopsguy]

Cronin and Barkeep - I'm happy to rally around either of the candidates you have a vote on rather than Barkeep. As it sits right now half the votes have been cast (very early, I know) and there is no majority. In fact, we are one vote away from a tie or a switched vote from Barkeep in the lead. Given that two of the votes not in are from Jeebs and Tanglewood (who will likely vote in self-defense) this is not shaping up very well so far.

Vote count as of Post #2043:
Jeeber - Cronin (1995), WVUFAN (2019), Anxiety (2043)
Barkeep - mckerney (1999), King (2041)
Tanglewood - Barkeep (2004), Hoopsguy (2012)

[Swaggs]

Cronin has earned some measure of trust from me--for the rest of the day, at least. I also feel like we should all try to line up together again, and work on the top two vote getters. Hopefully that will work itself out, as hoops has indicated that he is willing to pull off of Tanglewood and, presumably, Tanglewood and JeeberD will not vote for themselves. Hopefully, it will be telling.

Vote JeeberD

[Swaggs]

Also, I will probably not be around a whole lot tomorrow morning/afternoon, but will try to check back in before the deadline. I am breaking into a new job and have a big day tomorrow.

[Raiders Army]

Damn, you guys should be piling on Blade. He's avoided everything so far.

VOTE BLADE

I'll find the specific posts, but he was one who's never been cleared. I'd say what happened was that Coffee was converted the first night after he revealed himself. He sent in his night actions and was going for cronin. He told the truth when he cleared cronin. Then, he cleared his buddy Blade the next night, knowing there's truth in some of his reveals.

Blade's been under the gun but never tested or revealed as a human. He was also Coffee's staunchest ally yesterday. I want him tested. I'll find some other posts after I've gone to work.

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to have some availability challenges as well - I'm starting with a new client today, so will be in meetings all morning and most of the afternoon. Will sneak off for my WW fix when I have a chance, but I won't be really active until tonight when I get home.

[Raiders Army]

Post #1840:
Im all fine and dandy with doing more research and investigating, but i dont see you doing that. I only see you debating his ideas.
I found this one particularly funny since Blade seems as if he doesn’t do any research and just debates ideas.

Post #1915:
Someones gotta do it. With seemingly half the game already AWOL, i have to make up for their posts..all my wrong guesses? those were me role playing the missing guys gueesses...Blade has been 100% correct this game..he just has yet to show up
Didn’t catch this yesterday. Blade has not been 100% correct this game. More hyperbole. Remember, it was dubb/Blade against Coffee/me when Coffee revealed himself as the seer.

Post #1918:
Vote Hoopsguy

I wont get any support, but im sticking by my gut. I never thought he was an original, and i never thought him a simple villager(as ive pointed out countless times). In my mind this role reveal means nothing...if he was converted would he reveal the role any differently? Im sorry, im not buying it...

No matter what happens, at least i was finally right about something(hoops akwardly trying to latch onto the brilliant bit, and therefore not being a simple villager).
For someone who does a lot of “analysis” here’s a gut vote.

Also, going through the posts, Barkeep made the switch to Coffee when it was questionable that he was going to be tested.

Post #1978:
Just like you were sure on day 2 barkeep was a thing, and on 3/4 you were sure dubb and i were things...im not one to speak, but we both cant be sure
More protection for CW.

[Raiders Army]

I don't think Barkeep is the right choice. I'm pretty sure Blade is a Thing. He's avoided being tested, was "cleared" by a Thing (albeit we don't know if CW was a Thing at that point).

Let's talk about that for a second. If Coffee was converted, then it was the first night or the third night that he was converted. I'm assuming that hoops is telling the truth. If so, then it's either Blade or Barkeep. Barkeep made a key vote yesterday early, so I don't think it's him. Sticking to Blade.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so I went back and reread my role description. I am warming up to the idea that a convert could still use a power. The only power that would make sense to be used are Duke and my role. There might be other roles in the game that we aren't aware of that also make sense, but of those are what we know of right now. I will collect my evidence against Tangle sometime this morning as I still feel he is stronger but am no longer feel it is a waste of time to keep testing the same guy over and over again.

[Raiders Army]

Who are we testing again and again? I'm advocating a vote for Blade who's never been tested. You've never been tested either. Are you talking about Jeebs?

[JeeberD]

How in the heck does your role description give evidence that a player could keep his power after conversion? I just looked over mine and see nothing that would indicate that?

Note that he then changed his vote, perhaps hoping that people would forget that he resisted the CW thing.

Ugh, I hate HATE doing this 'caue I think CW is clean. But my voting for someone else isn't going to accomplish anything, I'm afraid...

Vote CW


Yeah, I really tried to hide the fact that I was supporting CW... :rolleyes:

I'll admit that I made a bad choice. Hell, I've been picking the wrong people all game long. But I assure you guys that I haven't been converted. The Things most likely see how y'all keep coming back to me so why would they waste a conversion on someone who is likely to be tested again?

[Barkeep49]

How in the heck does your role description give evidence that a player could keep his power after conversion? I just looked over mine and see nothing that would indicate that?

I'm not saying there's a lot there, but based on the literal interpretation Schmidty has used before I think there's something there. Please realize that I'm still going after Tangle for a reason. I hope to have my case against him up in about an hour.

[Blade6119]

I don't think Barkeep is the right choice. I'm pretty sure Blade is a Thing. He's avoided being tested, was "cleared" by a Thing (albeit we don't know if CW was a Thing at that point).

Let's talk about that for a second. If Coffee was converted, then it was the first night or the third night that he was converted. I'm assuming that hoops is telling the truth. If so, then it's either Blade or Barkeep. Barkeep made a key vote yesterday early, so I don't think it's him. Sticking to Blade.
Why is cronin not being included on your list might i ask? he was cleared post night 3 as well...

[Blade6119]

Post #1840:

I found this one particularly funny since Blade seems as if he doesn’t do any research and just debates ideas.
Besides barkeep i think ive been the one who has gone back the most and studied past pages and comments. But twist it how you will.

Post #1915:

Didn’t catch this yesterday. Blade has not been 100% correct this game. More hyperbole. Remember, it was dubb/Blade against Coffee/me when Coffee revealed himself as the seer.
It was a fucking joke about the 100%...read it

[Raiders Army]

Why is cronin not being included on your list might i ask? he was cleared post night 3 as well...
Cronin was cleared on the night view the same night that CW could've been converted. It's a much stronger possibility that you or Barkeep was a fake "reveal" because there's a 50% chance he was converted and a smaller percentage (probably less than 30%) that he hit a Thing. The odds increase dramatically with you and Barkeep.

[Raiders Army]

It was a fucking joke about the 100%...read it
Ah, re-read. Got the sarcasm. Sometimes you need to put that in there, pal. :)

Regardless, I think hoops and I have both looked back more than you at prior posts.

[Barkeep49]

Ok since he only has 54 posts in the thread I'm going to update my previous recap of tangle's and then explain exactly what I find suspicious.

[tanglewood]

That Hoops didn't protect Coffee the night after his reveal tells me that I am almost certain he was probably converted that night. As a Thing I would be willing to take the risk of being blocked in order to take the seer out, I can't see how they would go anywhere else that night. Therefore, I am skeptical of anyone who was cleared by CW, even though obviously he wouldn't have just gone and cleared every Thing.

This to me leads to an obvious candidate. Blade backed up Coffee in his lynch and was cleared by Coffee earlier too.

Vote Blade

[Barkeep49]

This took longer as I let myself get distracted while doing it. Through post 248 was a recap I did during Day 2.
Tanglewood:
88 - Checks in
159 As a Thing, a clear strategy is to try and get people on their side who are tested early. However, if we then take that to mean that we shouldn't regard testing as accurate then we throw away our only weapon and are down to flying on instinct, so we have to place some faith in the test results at least. I reckon that we will need wither a good slice of luck at a cruical point or a monumental performance from one or two peeps to win this.
161 - Does a supposedly random D1 vote for path
248 - Claims not to have put in brillaint due to metagaming concerns. Further states
Of course another reason is that I don't think it's all that usefull as major proponents want to make out. Firstly, it's quite possible that the Things can latch onto a group early on, an expereinced player could pick up on certain phrases or words and drop them into his post. Then we have 'cleared' a Thing for nothing more than doing a good job of straightowardly imitating someone else (I believe that a few games ago Blade complained that a wolf, AlanT IIRC, did this, simply imitating his posting style and use of phrase, thus Blade cleared him). Another is that it's not necessarily true that we all got the same PM, nor can we be certain that everything in our PM was not sent to the Things also. Of course, if the Things got the info in our PM then it all goes to hell as they jump in the 'cleared' group and all of us are pretty much walking blind. In that not unlikely scenario it's more helpful to not mention PMs at all.
311 - Agrees with Blade that I should be tested
319 - Meaningless post
427 - Does a very long post in which he argues (now we know correctly) that Hoops picked up on the use of brilliant. However, since he now thinks I am good follows my lead and votes for saldana (after deadline)
430 - Apologizes for missing the vote and argues his long post in 427 shows that he was working when he should have been voting
432 - Feels hoops vote for saldana clears hoops
440 - Defends the idea of qwik being a thing
469 - Wants me tested at some point. Believes hoops. Wants to target an UTR guy like mckerny with the second vote
565 - Is 50/50 on whether to test Dubb or Jeeber. Wanted to go for a low profile person but without support is voting for Dubb.
602 - Hopes that the last minute vote moving works out OK
716 - Here's an idea I just had after catching up. Why not just check Coffee Warlord today to see if he is the seer. If he checks out, then we keep voting for him every day afterward and let him do al the seeing at night. That way we have one confirmed good guy and we could unofficially vote for who to view at night. I am sure that there are some downsides to this idea, namely that that we only get one chance to discover a Thing rather than two, but it would be one confirmed chance as opposed with a guarenteed GG as opposed to one chance, another suspect reported chance and no confirmed GGs. What does everyone else think?
748 - Since people don't like the idea of 716 wants to test me, Jeeber, or Blade. Then wants to test CW the next day.
766 - Now dimsisses his 716 idea as "crap". Thinks that the time lapse between finding a shitface and killing one would be too fast
768 - Wonders why, if CW isn't the seer, someone else hasn't stepped forward
1046 - No idea bout who are shitfaces. Is catching up
1105 - Still not sure. Doesn't like 4 main candidates of the day (Blade, CW, RA, and dubb). Would rather vote for me. Or Jeeber or path
1110 - Thinks CW is clean but if forced to vote for one of the 4 it would be him
1114 - Wants a vote count
1121 - As no one is liking his ideas is forced to vote for who would have the biggest upside to being cleared
1125 - Votes CW. Partly to avoid a tie with Blade
1128 - Still wants to vote for me
1129 - Posts about the deadline time
1135 - Isn't sure if I started off bad or became bad. Thinks I would have been a tempting conversion target
1138 - Realizes there is more time for votes
1212 - Has no read on cronin
1230 - Will move to cronin if a majority can be reached
1231 - Sees enough people in thread to make switch work
1234 - Says we're going to find out if CW was being honest or not
1241 - Agrees with points of mine against cronin
1269 - Wants CW to scan me
1281 - Wants credit for saying CW was the seer
1289 - After I point out that he didn't have to vote for CW he responds
None of the major candidates were people who I wanted to vote for and as I was the last to vote (2 hours before the deadline), I voted for the one I thought would be most helpful to come back Scientist. By the posibility of a group moving to someone I could get behind came, it was too late. CW had a 6-4 majority over Dubb, so even if I moved CW would still be tested. All it would've done was create the possibility of someone voting for dubb right at the buzzer and causing a tie.
1290 - Is hopeful that the bodyguard will protect CW for tomorrow
1422 - Says he has been busy and won't be active
1487 - Is catching up. Votes for Jeeber as someone who has been more suspicious as time has gone on. Still wants me tested
1703 - Asks hoops who he feels are shitfaces
1705 -
I can see a few strands raised in the last few pages that all seem to make sense to me. Anxiety as the typical UTR conversion target, Barkeep as a likely conversion target, Coffee not being able to be protected two nights running so very possible he is a Thing, Hoops being too perfect to be a mere mortal human.
1739 - Reminds people that the deadline is later then people thought
1748 -
I think the fact that we have no information in this game is just very frustrating for the humans, it makes everyone's opinion seem possible and very difficult to weed out faulty reasoning. I can just go through whole pages and say to myself about every person, well I can see where he's coming from on that vote, which is very irritating.

Perhaps a change of tack may be best. We are all sure that there is at least one original thing out there. If there were three at the start or Qwik was not a thing, then there are two. So, rather than trying to go after potential converts, which ijust seems to causing chaos at the moment as everyone is a suspect all the time, we should go back to trying to hit the original(s).

Confirmed NOT original Thing:

Coffee Warlord (Seer)
Raiders Army (Seer)
Dubb (Clean)
Blade (Brilliant)
Swaggs (Brilliant)
JeeberD (Duke)

Possible original Thing, voted for Saldana:

Barkeep
mckerny
Path

Possible original Thing, didn't vote for Saldana:

WVUFan
Anxiety
Cronin
Tanglewood


If we want a comprimise, I'd say pick an UTR guy from the last list. Obviously I listed myself there, but I feel that I did vote for Saldana, at least I intended to. For any of the lawyers out there, I had the Mens Rea if not the Actus Reus.

At this point I'm going to voting for Anxiety, I've spotted a few inconsistencies that I'll post up together in a min or two.

Vote Anxiety
1760 - Says Anxiety has been "gunning" for me all game. Posts some examples
1762 - Posts some possiblities about Qwik and me regarding who is/not a shitface
1765 - Argues that Anxiety has more vote switches in a short period of time then a normal scientist
1766 - Agrees that he missed a possiblity in 1762
1947 - Wants people to explain why the suspect him. Votes for CW
1958 - Thinks people with info should step forward
1960 - Meaningless post
1969 - Going to bed
2060 - Is skeptical of people CW cleared. Votes for Blade

[Barkeep49]

Ok after reading over Tangle's posts:
I don't like the fact that he has had a couple of last minute shinanigans. First with missing the vote on saldana, by 40 minutes. Then by indicating a willingness to switch away from CW, who at the time he thought was innocent, but not doings so despite the fact that he could have voted for just about anyone else in the game and not had it matter. I also don't like his post in 1748 as the consenus is pretty strong that there are only 2 original shitfaces.

That said IF there were 3 I think you could make a case that Tangle was the third. Hoops like to say that as a bad guy it's important to be honest with just about everything you post. That could be an example of such honesty.

That said I have to admit that after reading his posts I don't feel as suspicious of him as I once did. I'm not ready yet to switch my vote, but I'm getting close to being ready. Cronin did a great job yesterday and he feels more strongly about Jeeber then I do about tangle at this point which leads me to think maybe I should follow his lead on this.

It's something I'm going to think over during the day and will post on when I come back around 7 eastern.

[JeeberD]

Cronin did a great job yesterday and he feels more strongly about Jeeber then I do about tangle at this point which leads me to think maybe I should follow his lead on this.

And he felt certain about Dubb a few days ago. He's been hit or miss, just like most of us...

[Barkeep49]

And he felt certain about Dubb a few days ago. He's been hit or miss, just like most of us...
Fair enough. Would like to know though: Is your power 1 time or not?

[JeeberD]

Yes, it was a one time power...

[Barkeep49]

Yes, it was a one time power...
Good to hear you say that.

And hello to thread lurker Tyrith. Hope to maybe see you play a future game!

[path12]

And hello to thread lurker Tyrith. Hope to maybe see you play a future game!

Funny, I was noticing the same thing last night. And second the sentiment. New blood is always good.

[Coffee Warlord]

You know, this whole burning thing ain't so bad....

[JeeberD]

Does it kinda tingle?

[st.cronin]

Since the last vote, there has been no night cycle, so that vote gives us the best possible evidence on who to go after.

So, Barkeep and myself should be considered clear for this vote. RA perhaps as well, since he was an early bandwagoner. Possibly even hoops, although I could go either way on him.

Jeeber had by far the most suspicious posts and votes in the last vote. Keep it simple guys - test the human who is most out of synch.

I keep restating the same argument, yet people still want to test BK.

[JeeberD]

I'm off to the gym and then am going to help my brother move into his new home (*grumble*). I'm not sure what time I'll be back at the computer, so I'm going to go ahead and get a vote in.

Vote tangle

A vote for Jeeber is a wasted vote, boys.

[Raiders Army]

Since the last vote, there has been no night cycle, so that vote gives us the best possible evidence on who to go after.

So, Barkeep and myself should be considered clear for this vote. RA perhaps as well, since he was an early bandwagoner. Possibly even hoops, although I could go either way on him.

Jeeber had by far the most suspicious posts and votes in the last vote. Keep it simple guys - test the human who is most out of synch.

I keep restating the same argument, yet people still want to test BK.
Why Jeebs over Blade?

[Blade6119]

This to me leads to an obvious candidate. Blade backed up Coffee in his lynch and was cleared by Coffee earlier too.

Vote Blade
Quote me backing CW...please...PLEASE...in yesterday's vote i dont think i backed him once. And before yesterdays vote i was saying it was highly likely hes a thing. Want me to go quote posts, becuase i can. Lets see you do it...:o

[Blade6119]

Why Jeebs over Blade?
RA, i should be cleared for not voting for CW yesterday. As a thing, do you know how stupid it would be to vote like i did. I stuck out like a girl at michael jackson's house. Come on RA, i stated and everyone else knew almost from the start of the day CW was going down. You need to look at the CW voters(prob. the later votes) for your things. If i was one, i would have made sure to be on CW yesterday. Come on buddy, think like a thing here :)

[Blade6119]

Blade's been under the gun but never tested or revealed as a human. He was also Coffee's staunchest ally yesterday. I want him tested. I'll find some other posts after I've gone to work.
I utterly disagree, but at least you gave some quotes..i respect that...give me a bit and ill start my post rebuttal :)

[Blade6119]

Testing CW tells us barkeep was clean last night...nothing more...i acutally figure he is clean now and wont be after tonight...but the group has decided...hoops hoops hoops
I retract my statement about not defending CW...i was wrong again...i found this nice tidbit from yesterday. Feel free to test me now

[Blade6119]

Coffee - Cronin (1869), Raiders (1878), Barkeep (1929), anxiety (1930), Hoopsguy (1943), Tangle (1947), Path (1949), Swaggs (1950), Jeeber (1962), mckerney (1964)

Hoopsguy - Blade (1918), Coffee (1945)

No votes - Kingfc, WVUFAN
Just for reference...if you asked me, outside of hoops the things should be the ones with late votes on coffee...to me thats from hoopsguy to mckerney...i cut it at anxiety, where there is a break...it was 4-1 at that point, and quite clear then CW was going down.

[Tyrith]

Lurker: Always glad to be noticed. :) I've flipping through some of the older games, it definately looks interesting.

[Barkeep49]

Just for reference...if you asked me, outside of hoops the things should be the ones with late votes on coffee...to me thats from hoopsguy to mckerney...i cut it at anxiety, where there is a break...it was 4-1 at that point, and quite clear then CW was going down.
I buy this. And it is revealing that the two people who aren't me who have recieved suspicion are Jeeber and Tangle both of whom are in that block.

[path12]

Just for reference...if you asked me, outside of hoops the things should be the ones with late votes on coffee...to me thats from hoopsguy to mckerney...i cut it at anxiety, where there is a break...it was 4-1 at that point, and quite clear then CW was going down.

There was as much of a break even earlier:

Cronin 1869
Raiders 1878 (9 posts later)
Barkeep 1929 (51 posts later)
Anxiety 1930 (1 post later)
Hoops 1943 (13 posts later)
Tangle 1947 (4 posts later)
Path 1949 (2 posts later)
Swaggs 1950 (1 post later)
Jeeber 1962 (12 posts later)
Mckerney 1964 (2 posts later)

So the big break was between Barkeep and Anxiety....not that I think it really matters too much. I don't disagree that we might find some things later in that line, but I think it was fairly obvious even before Barkeeps post at 1929 that CW was the way to go yesterday, was it not?

[path12]

Lurker: Always glad to be noticed. :) I've flipping through some of the older games, it definately looks interesting.

We'll be waiting for your signup next game then. I probably won't vote for you the first day. But then again I might. :)

[Blade6119]

There was as much of a break even earlier:

Cronin 1869
Raiders 1878 (9 posts later)
Barkeep 1929 (51 posts later)
Anxiety 1930 (1 post later)
Hoops 1943 (13 posts later)
Tangle 1947 (4 posts later)
Path 1949 (2 posts later)
Swaggs 1950 (1 post later)
Jeeber 1962 (12 posts later)
Mckerney 1964 (2 posts later)

So the big break was between Barkeep and Anxiety....not that I think it really matters too much. I don't disagree that we might find some things later in that line, but I think it was fairly obvious even before Barkeeps post at 1929 that CW was the way to go yesterday, was it not?
Before barkeep it was 2-1(i voted hoops before barkeep voted CW)...then anxiety voted 1 post later so i added him. But by no means is a 2-1 vote clear the 2 will get tested...3-1 maybe, but 4-1 for sure...hence my logic..if you want to include anxiety in the group, feel free

[path12]

Before barkeep it was 2-1(i voted hoops before barkeep voted CW)...then anxiety voted 1 post later so i added him. But by no means is a 2-1 vote clear the 2 will get tested...3-1 maybe, but 4-1 for sure...hence my logic..if you want to include anxiety in the group, feel free

Well, I'm not really trying to advocate putting him in the group or not. I guess my point is that even when it was 2-1 (and I'm kind of talking out of my ass here because I haven't gone back through the posts since I really shouldn't be online right now anyway) it's my recollection that you weren't getting a whole lot of support for hoops after the bg reveal and that most of the talk was going CW's way. I know that I held off as long as I did just to see how the discussion went and threw out a couple devil's advocate questions, but there really wasn't any real choice yesterday.

[tanglewood]

Wow, this thread is dead so far tonight.

RE: My late voting, I almost always vote late on lynches unless I am fairly sure of someone and even then am ususalyy willing to swap around late on. Check any of my votes in this game or previous games if you like.

As for Blade, the whole 'I didn't vote for a Thing so I must be clean' logic is just ridiculous.

[tanglewood]

dola

Actually ddn't realise we had around 10 posts in the last half hour, things are heating up slowly I guess.

[Blade6119]

Well, I'm not really trying to advocate putting him in the group or not. I guess my point is that even when it was 2-1 (and I'm kind of talking out of my ass here because I haven't gone back through the posts since I really shouldn't be online right now anyway) it's my recollection that you weren't getting a whole lot of support for hoops after the bg reveal and that most of the talk was going CW's way. I know that I held off as long as I did just to see how the discussion went and threw out a couple devil's advocate questions, but there really wasn't any real choice yesterday.
I knew, and said when i voted hoops i knew it wasnt going to gain any support...the question was still if some other target would step up like it always seems to. Rarely does the person who leads early finish getting tested. But yes, yesterday was a fairly foregone conclusion. But as a thing i dont think i could place a vote on CW when its 2-1 and effectively damn him. Id wait and see if some villager makes a move and creates an oppurtunity. Hence my logic

[Blade6119]

As for Blade, the whole 'I didn't vote for a Thing so I must be clean' logic is just ridiculous.
Ya, becuase a thing would just love to be singled out in the votes after it was sooo obvious who was getting tested yesterday. IM THE ONLY PERSON ALIVE who voted for someone other then CW...why would a thing make a move like that and draw that kind of obvious attention...it doesnt make sense tangle

[Blade6119]

Ive stated for a few days hoops and tangle we my things...so since one of my two suspects is up for a test, ill be happy to lend my support

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[path12]

But as a thing i dont think i could place a vote on CW when its 2-1 and effectively damn him. Id wait and see if some villager makes a move and creates an oppurtunity. Hence my logic

OK, I agree with your point there. I've gotta think though that the things knew early what the score was and might be anywhere in that line. Well, except first. I totally believe Cronin was clear yesterday.

[Schmidty]

Just to let everyone know, I will be at a wedding in the San Juan islands friday and saturday, so tomorrow's vote deadline will be monday.

[tanglewood]

Ya, becuase a thing would just love to be singled out in the votes after it was sooo obvious who was getting tested yesterday. IM THE ONLY PERSON ALIVE who voted for someone other then CW...why would a thing make a move like that and draw that kind of obvious attention...it doesnt make sense tangle

If there are 5 things, which we could assume is how many there are with 2 originals + 6 conversions - 3 killed, then I find it not incocievable that it would be someone's 'duty' to try and get the vote switched off of a comrade whilst the others pile on trying to look clean. Add in that you voted relatively early in the day, when the vote was 2-1 CW over mckerny with no other votes cast, and whilst there had been some discussion toward CW it was by no means finalised that he was going down. You are a good player, so I can see that you would have been chosen/voulenteered to fight CW's corner and as you are a good player you would be able to fight your own corner if he was downed and you had to explain your actions.

So in summary:

1. At the time you voted, you were not actively going against a foregone conclusion
2. Therefore, it was still very possible for someone else to have been tested that day at that point
3. A Thing would not neccessarily have known that he was hanging himself out to dry with such a vote
4. Even if it was likely CW was going down, the Things have to try to save him, if they did it was virtually game over.
5. Blade could reasonably have chosen as he has the panache to sometimes effect such swings and the arrogance to believe he can. He is also adept at defending his actions, so could weasel his way out if things went badly and he had to cover for himself.

Ultimately - When the Things are soooo close to winning, why need to try and hide amongst scientists on a Thing lynch? A clean day today would have almost guarenteed a win and if I were them I'd've been all out for that. Your logic of 'going against the grain means I'm not a Thing' is completely flawed.

[tanglewood]

But as a thing i dont think i could place a vote on CW when its 2-1 and effectively damn him. Id wait and see if some villager makes a move and creates an oppurtunity. Hence my logic

So, when you vote it is 2-1 CW. You said a Thing would not vote for CW in this situation.

Previously you said:

RA, i should be cleared for not voting for CW yesterday. As a thing, do you know how stupid it would be to vote like i did. I stuck out like a girl at michael jackson's house. Come on RA, i stated and everyone else knew almost from the start of the day CW was going down. You need to look at the CW voters(prob. the later votes) for your things. If i was one, i would have made sure to be on CW yesterday. Come on buddy, think like a thing here :)

Make up your mind. You're just talking crap.

[Raiders Army]

I'm sticking with Blade.

[Raiders Army]

I mean, I'm sticking with my vote for Blade. I need piece of mind that he's a scientist or Thing.

[st.cronin]

One more point for the humans: Most humans are probably right now under the belief that me and BK are clear. Barkeep I think has not voted yet, but I have voted for Jeeber. That's the only vote that you can be sure is a human vote. All other candidates (excepting Tangle, whom BK took his vote off of) were first voted on by somebody who MIGHT be a thing. So, if you agree that consensus is the way to go, Jeeber is the safest pick for that reason.

[Raiders Army]

This is an interesting conversation:

Post #1609

Either you believe me or not, but, the following things happened.

1) I was not converted. Again.

2) I scanned Blade. The son of a bitch came up clear.

When I asked him why he scanned Blade he said this in Post #1617:

Because we've been flirting with voting Blade forever, always wind up swapping at the buzzer, and I wanted to know for certain. (or at least as certain as you can get in this game)

He follows up with this post #1618:
I find it quite surprising, I might add, that now 2 of the big 3 who were strongly fighting me back on The Day of Reckoning are good guys (or at least WERE on that particular day.)

And Blade responds to him by pushing for hoops yet again in post #1619:
Which should show how badly we screwed that day up...meaning it is likely the things didnt get too involved, so people like hoops who sat back and make some really non-argumentative comments should be our top prospect...

CW, would you be willing to vote hoops with me if i swapped?

[st.cronin]

I suspect Blade as well, RA, but we really need a consensus pick, and he's NOT the simplest choice. This is one of the few votes where the last vote is actually meaningful, and Jeeber's was the worst vote. He originally voted for a known human, tried to undermine the strategy BK and I had laid out, and then half-assedly changed his vote later on. We HAVE to test him. I feel very strongly about this.

[path12]

I suspect Blade as well, RA, but we really need a consensus pick, and he's NOT the simplest choice. This is one of the few votes where the last vote is actually meaningful, and Jeeber's was the worst vote. He originally voted for a known human, tried to undermine the strategy BK and I had laid out, and then half-assedly changed his vote later on. We HAVE to test him. I feel very strongly about this.

I'll go ahead and follow you on this, Cronin, since you were dead on with CW and are so certain here. But you are hanging yourself WAY out there if we come up blank on this one.

VOTE JEEBER

[Raiders Army]

Alrighty then. Begrudgingly, I

UNVOTE BLADE6119
VOTE JEEBERD

Just for the record, you all should know that I am still a scientist since I usually leave the board at about 7 EST and don't come back until the morning. :)

[st.cronin]

The next vote we will have to start over. I would suggest we start with anybody who put votes on Barkeep in THIS vote, since at this time he's pretty much a known human.

[Raiders Army]

I wouldn't go that far, cronin. I think you assume too much.

[st.cronin]

I wouldn't go that far, cronin. I think you assume too much.

Perhaps. I just like to keep things simple. Don't expect David Ortiz to bunt, that sort of thing.

[Barkeep49]

I agree that looking at voters for me is a good place to start for tomorrow especially with the compelling case cronin has built on my behalf. Thanks! But I also agree we're at near ground 0 again tomorrow.

One correction though: While I am still leaning in that direction I have not yet unvoted Tangle and remain the first vote on him.

[Barkeep49]

Also I will be looking to finalize my decision around 8 eastern, or about an hour so as to try and avoid last minute shenanigans.

[Barkeep49]

RE: My late voting, I almost always vote late on lynches unless I am fairly sure of someone and even then am ususalyy willing to swap around late on. Check any of my votes in this game or previous games if you like.

It is a compelling style for a shitface though. The swapping around a lot makes it easy for you to accept less responsiblity for your vote.

[Raiders Army]

I'm out for the night. It seems as if Blade's escaped yet again. He was in the thread earlier, but saw no need to post since everyone's going with Jeebs. I hope this is worth it.

[Barkeep49]

I'm out for the night. It seems as if Blade's escaped yet again. He was in the thread earlier, but saw no need to post since everyone's going with Jeebs. I hope this is worth it.
Man I don't think I want to play with you again if Blade has turned out to be a bad guy for as long as you've said.

[tanglewood]

I'm going to stay on Blade, his actions today have just pushed him into the 'high suspicion' category for me. Jeeber, I can definitley see why he would be a target and can appreciate our two most likely clean guys voing for him being a good bet, but I just have a feeling on Blade now. I wish I could stay until the end, as I also have a (bad) feeling that tonight's vote will be suceptible to some manic vote shifting near the end, but I have to leave and won't be back 'till the morn'.

[hoopsguy]

I'm hoping to create some space with my vote if it looks like we are really close. I don't want to leave an opening for the Things to manipulate this in the last ten minutes tonight if we can help it.

Going to total the votes now ...

[path12]

I'd be OK with testing Blade if there was a movement towards him, I think the only reason he hasn't been tested yet is because CW cleared him a couple of nights back.....but now we know CW was likely bad then so who knows how valid that is.

I'm really just with Jeeber to follow Cronin's consensus idea. I don't know that he's top of my list.

[Barkeep49]

Vote count as of 2110
Jeeber - Cronin (1995), WVUFAN (2019), Anxiety (2043), Swaggs, path12, Raiders
Barkeep - mckerney (1999), King (2041)
Tanglewood - Barkeep (2004), Hoopsguy (2012), Jeeber, Blade
Blade - tangle

[hoopsguy]

At the moment (Post #2110) all votes are in with 100 minutes to the deadline:

Jeeber - Cronin (1995), WVUFAN (2019), Anxiety (2043), Swaggs (2045), path (2098), Raiders (2099)

Barkeep - mckerney (1999), King (2041)

Tanglewood - Barkeep (2004), Hoopsguy (2012), JeeberD (2071), Blade (2088)

Blade - Tanglewood (2060)


Jeebs with a 6-4 lead on Tanglewood. Or one vote change from Jeebs to a tie. I would love for King to make his way into the thread and talk about his Barkeep vote.

I'm mulling over how much credit I should be giving Tanglewood for voting for Blade instead of Jeeber, when it is clearly in his self-interest to go with the leading vote getter?

[Barkeep49]

I'm mulling over how much credit I should be giving Tanglewood for voting for Blade instead of Jeeber, when it is clearly in his self-interest to go with the leading vote getter?
It is a ballsy move. Of course there is the possiblity that tangle plus 1 of either Jeeber or Blade is a bad guy in which case it becomes far less of a bold move, especially if Jeeber is also a bad guy. Just saying.

[Barkeep49]

Hoops who is lef tto vote? Anyone?

[hoopsguy]

All in - only 13 players left since we torched Coffee Warlord (16 originals - minus Qwikshot, Saldana, and Coffee).

[mckerney]

The next vote we will have to start over. I would suggest we start with anybody who put votes on Barkeep in THIS vote, since at this time he's pretty much a known human.

I disagree. I've seen Barkeep as a suspect for a while, and don't take CWs clear of him as absolutely proof that he's human. It would be a calculated risk for CW to clear someone who's a thing, knowing that most everyone is probably going to think he'd never clear a thing, much like what happened today. A risk, but I don't see it as out of the realm of possibility that the Things would try to pull off. And if it is what's happened it looks like it worked perfectly.

I like blade as an option too though there's not much support there, but I think there's a better chance that Barkeep is a thing than Jeeber, so for nowmy vote will stay where it is.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so then mckerny and king: Why not weigh in on the tangle/jeeber angle? I would implore the Blade voters to do the same but they are claiming to be gone and I see mckerny in the thread now.

[Barkeep49]

I disagree. I've seen Barkeep as a suspect for a while, and don't take CWs clear of him as absolutely proof that he's human. It would be a calculated risk for CW to clear someone who's a thing, knowing that most everyone is probably going to think he'd never clear a thing, much like what happened today. A risk, but I don't see it as out of the realm of possibility that the Things would try to pull off. And if it is what's happened it looks like it worked perfectly.

I like blade as an option too though there's not much support there, but I think there's a better chance that Barkeep is a thing than Jeeber, so for nowmy vote will stay where it is.
Except you are saying "I think there is a much better chance that it is Jeeber then tangle" at this point. I mean you have to admit it takes some real masterminds to concoct the follow scenario:
1. Have a good guy point fingers at a converted seer DURING the night cycle
2. Have a regular shitface join in strongly about what a good idea this is
3. Have the converted seer then clear the shitface joining in
4. Have the regular shitface start to help pull the vote away from it being close to it not being close against the converted seer

Damn I wish I was that smart when I was a shitface. Alas I am just a human with one hell of a good track record. I had my vote not on CW when he was innocent and on him when he was guilty. I took out a shitface singlehandedly in Day 1 and led the charge against another in Day 2. I will take my record in this game and compare it against anyone elses and come away very proud.

[path12]

I'm out till after lynch. Hoping for the double.

[hoopsguy]

mckerney, what Cronin is arguing is that Barkeep is not human because CW cleared him, but that Barkeep is human because he was Cronin's primary partner in pushing to scan Coffee yesterday. That throwing out that support so early is convincing proof that Barkeep was not looking to keep CW alive.

I come pretty close to buying this. The small part of me that protests says that there were five Things out there yesterday and it is certainly possible that one of them was early to that party. Here is where I'm taking the opposite view of this from Blade. If they were smart, they wouldn't wait to be the last 3-4 votes for CW.

[hoopsguy]

Er - Cronin isn't using "Barkeep = human because CW cleared him".
He is using "Barkeep = human because he went after CW from the outset yesterday".

Translation from thought to keyboard isn't always the best ... hope that clears up my last post which was a little confusing to me (and I wrote it).

[st.cronin]

mckerney, what Cronin is arguing is that Barkeep is not human because CW cleared him, but that Barkeep is human because he was Cronin's primary partner in pushing to scan Coffee yesterday. That throwing out that support so early is convincing proof that Barkeep was not looking to keep CW alive.

I come pretty close to buying this. The small part of me that protests says that there were five Things out there yesterday and it is certainly possible that one of them was early to that party. Here is where I'm taking the opposite view of this from Blade. If they were smart, they wouldn't wait to be the last 3-4 votes for CW.

It's eery how much we see eye to eye on this. One more point on Jeeber: The fact that there is no real consensus on him makes me think I'm right. If I had picked out a human, I think the Things would be all over that guy, and the score would be about 12-1. That it's as close as it is worries me, but makes me think I'm on to something.

[mckerney]

Except you are saying "I think there is a much better chance that it is Jeeber then tangle" at this point. I mean you have to admit it takes some real masterminds to concoct the follow scenario:
1. Have a good guy point fingers at a converted seer DURING the night cycle
2. Have a regular shitface join in strongly about what a good idea this is
3. Have the converted seer then clear the shitface joining in
4. Have the regular shitface start to help pull the vote away from it being close to it not being close against the converted seer

Damn I wish I was that smart when I was a shitface. Alas I am just a human with one hell of a good track record. I had my vote not on CW when he was innocent and on him when he was guilty. I took out a shitface singlehandedly in Day 1 and led the charge against another in Day 2. I will take my record in this game and compare it against anyone elses and come away very proud.

Actually, I think it's a better chance that it's Tangle than Jeeber, but I'm not realy sold on Tangle and don't want to vote him with as close as it is and risk a tie.

Also, I honestly don't think it's that it would be that surprising of a move for the things to sacrifice the converted seer. We knew that CW was going to be tested sooner or later, and we also know that the things had to eliminate him as a threat. They couldn't afford to let CW scan one of them and then come up clean in a test, so we got a thing but one that they wanted us to have, and they come out looking like good guys in the process. What'd that leave us with vote 2 for they day? Two candidates in a split vote that can probably be manipulated by the things. So what I think happened is they sacrificed a little fish to put themselves in a better position.

I'd rather stick with my guns here than vote for someone who I don't think will give us anything, or move the vote closer to risk a tie. If I need to make a move at the deadline I will, but otherwise I'd rather vote one someone who I think will get us somewhere.

I hope I'm wrong about this and we find Jeeber is a thing if this vote holds, but I don't think we're going in the right direction after getting one of them.

[st.cronin]

mckerney, what Cronin is arguing is that Barkeep is not human because CW cleared him, but that Barkeep is human because he was Cronin's primary partner in pushing to scan Coffee yesterday. That throwing out that support so early is convincing proof that Barkeep was not looking to keep CW alive.

I come pretty close to buying this. The small part of me that protests says that there were five Things out there yesterday and it is certainly possible that one of them was early to that party. Here is where I'm taking the opposite view of this from Blade. If they were smart, they wouldn't wait to be the last 3-4 votes for CW.

One more thought: What the Things would have tried to resist was the idea that we should have a consensus. Standard villager strategy in these games is to get a close vote, so that after the vote, you can try and pick out patterns. In this game, close votes are useless, but early on yesterday I don't know that everybody had realized that yet. This is why BK and you both look good (for today) but Jeeber looks bad. It's not so much jeebs vote that looks bad, but his attempt to undermine what turned out to be a solid strategy.

This game will be nearly impossible for the humans to win, but if we go with this strategy (of focusing on one suspect at a time), I think we might have a shot.

[mckerney]

Er - Cronin isn't using "Barkeep = human because CW cleared him".
He is using "Barkeep = human because he went after CW from the outset yesterday".

Translation from thought to keyboard isn't always the best ... hope that clears up my last post which was a little confusing to me (and I wrote it).

And still, if they sacrificed CW like I suspect, they'd be right there accusing him to look like heroes.

[st.cronin]

And still, if they sacrificed CW like I suspect, they'd be right there accusing him to look like heroes.

I don't think they would play that way. I mean, maybe, but as I said before, you don't expect David Ortiz to bunt. Given the nature of this game (everybody's a suspect every day) it would make the most sense to try and keep the vote close and cause some last minute havok (see earlier votes).

[Barkeep49]

And still, if they sacrificed CW like I suspect, they'd be right there accusing him to look like heroes.
Well of course they sacraficed him. The question is do you really believe that the guy who made it 3-1 was part of that sacrafice?

[Barkeep49]

I don't think they would play that way. I mean, maybe, but as I said before, you don't expect David Ortiz to bunt. Given the nature of this game (everybody's a suspect every day) it would make the most sense to try and keep the vote close and cause some last minute havok (see earlier votes).
This is just my point in a different dress.

[Barkeep49]

Mckerny I would like to have you on record:

Do you agree with the statement "Jeeber is a more likely thing than tangle" as that is essentially what you are arguing here.

[Barkeep49]

Mckerny I would like to have you on record:

Do you agree with the statement "Jeeber is a more likely thing than tangle" as that is essentially what you are arguing here.
Sorry missed the post where you responded to this.

[Barkeep49]

If I need to make a move at the deadline I will, but otherwise I'd rather vote one someone who I think will get us somewhere.

I mean you realize you want to "get us somewhere" by voting for somebody who isn't realistically going to be lynched? If you move your vote to Tangle then if somebody defects from Jeeber we still don't have a tie. On the otherhand if you vote for me, then if one person switches we have a tie.

[hoopsguy]

I agree that if we had a Thing here there is no way that this would be a runaway. They just can't afford to lose two of their members, even if they are getting a conversion.

Day 1: starts 14-2, Jeeber tested and clean (14-2)
Night 1: conversion + night kill (presumed Thing) = 13-2
Day 2/1: 13-2, Thing Saldana tested and killed = 13-1
Day 2/2: 13-1, Dubb tested and clean = 13-1
Night 2: conversion = 12-2
Day 3: 12-2, Coffee Warlord tested and clean = 12-2
Night 3: conversion = 11-3
Day 4: 11-3, Dubb tested (Duke invoked) and clean = 11-3
Night 4: conversion = 10-4
Day 5: 10-4, Anxiety tested and clean = 10-4
Night 5: conversion = 9-5
Day 6/1: 9-5, Thing Coffee Warlord tested and killed = 9-4
Day 6/2: 9-4, ????

So we are either looking at 8-4 or 8-5 going into tomorrow morning, assuming they have been able to successfully convert each and every night. It makes a very big difference, as it gives us guaranteed one more day of game - with the chance of registering double-kills we can still turn this one around.

Even with a miss today we have at least two more days to play. If we do end up with a kill here then I'll start to believe we can actually win this.

[mckerney]

Do you agree with the statement "Jeeber is a more likely thing than tangle" as that is essentially what you are arguing here.

False.

[Barkeep49]

I find it kind of insane that the top 4 posters have over half the posts in a 2100 post thread with 13 still active players.

[Barkeep49]

Since mckerny seems to have left I think it's time to start to talk about where we go from here. I see two orders of discussion we could start now.

1. Who are likely converts tonight?
2. What does it tell us if Jeebers innocent? What if he comes out guilty?

Ok and I guess a 3rd point:
How do we build consensus on a runaway candidate for the next two days? This was VITAL towards nailing CW today as it gave the shitfaces no room to work in. I am not sure if it was as useful in this vote, especially if Jeeber comes up guilty. But otherwise I worry about the scientists ability to have enough votes against a bad guy.

[hoopsguy]

1. I've got thoughts on this - do you really want to discuss it prior to conversion? Or at least prior to results tonight, as that should have an impact on their decision as well.

2. Innocent - that Jeebs didn't post very well yesterday. That Tanglewood becomes a more serious suspect, particularly if there is late voting action that helps him.

2. Guilty - that Cronin was golden today. Nudge up the trust of everyone else who voted for him a little bit (would be at most one Thing in that group)

[hoopsguy]

BTW, it is getting late enough that I'm going to move my vote to prevent a tie. Not sure that late action is coming to change the outcome, but if it is I want it to take more than one vote.


UNVOTE TANGLEWOOD
VOTE JEEBERD

[Barkeep49]

BTW, it is getting late enough that I'm going to move my vote to prevent a tie. Not sure that late action is coming to change the outcome, but if it is I want it to take more than one vote.


UNVOTE TANGLEWOOD
VOTE JEEBERD

Hoops we're nowhere close to having a tie. I think you should have your vote where you want it at this point. We will look askance at anyone who tries a Jeeber to Tangles move.

[Barkeep49]

1. I've got thoughts on this - do you really want to discuss it prior to conversion? Or at least prior to results tonight, as that should have an impact on their decision as well. Fair enough on this though I don't think the outcome effects converts too much at this point.


2. Innocent - that Jeebs didn't post very well yesterday. That Tanglewood becomes a more serious suspect, particularly if there is late voting action that helps him.
How many things you think we have in this case? I say we're still likely looking at 2 or 3.

2. Guilty - that Cronin was golden today. Nudge up the trust of everyone else who voted for him a little bit (would be at most one Thing in that group)I say there are 2 things on him if he's guilty. I'd place prety strong odds that there are at least two in this scenario.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, it was 6-4. One person moving from Jeeber to Tangle creates a tie prior to me moving it.

[hoopsguy]

I disagree on two Things (if Jeebs is a Thing) - that would be splitting their numbers evenly, which would only make sense if both leading vote-getters are Things.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, it was 6-4. One person moving from Jeeber to Tangle creates a tie prior to me moving it.
Right. It creates a tie. Who's going to risk that?

[hoopsguy]

Jeebs = innocent, then likely 2-3 Things voting for him. They would avoid voting in a block, but would want to see a non-Thing hung.

If both Jeebs and Tangle are innocent then I think it is more likely a 2-1-1 split of the Things (can't be 1-1-1-1 if we are assuming that Tangle is not a Thing).

[Barkeep49]

Jeebs = innocent, then likely 2-3 Things voting for him. They would avoid voting in a block, but would want to see a non-Thing hung.

If both Jeebs and Tangle are innocent then I think it is more likely a 2-1-1 split of the Things (can't be 1-1-1-1 if we are assuming that Tangle is not a Thing).
Hoops I have to say your late vote change for no reason is NOT sitting well with me. You're trying to avoid a nonexistant tie. I will be watching this reveal with great interest now.

[Schmidty]

You gather again today, and quickly decide on JeeberD.

"Ah, fuck. I almost WISH one of those things would get me. At least then nobody would be able to fly you morons out of here so that you can all marinate your complete and utter idiocy, and I could watch the hilarity in safety and comfort."

JeeberD quickly takes the test, gets up and tromps off cursing and shaking his head.


JeeberD is not a Thing.

[hoopsguy]

Well, a tie equals no vote - that is what worried me. But after reviewing the numbers, even if they had three Things to start (highly doubtful) they weren't in end game mode. And they weren't guaranteed a 1:1 trade tomorrow, but would be spotting us the chance to double-up on Things. You are absolutely correct - this would have been a zero-value play for them.

So I didn't need to move the vote. I'll take whatever heat you (and the others) think is appropriate for this if he comes up clean.


Of course, that means I didn't need to hang around this page for the last 60-90 minutes on a really nice spring evening here either :(

[Barkeep49]

Hey thanks for the quick turn around Schmidty.

I guess that this actually mitigates your looking to avoid a tie somewhat as this way you can't take credit for being part of a shitface lynch.

[Barkeep49]

So how many times do we test Jeeber before the shitfaces decide that we're not going to go down that road again and decide to convert him?

[hoopsguy]

Perfect.

Barkeep, my vote changed nothing in terms of the results. 6-4 vs 7-3. I agree in hindsight it was a needless play but there was no value-add for me doing this as a Thing.

If you think that I was protecting Tanglewood (I wasn't), where were the two votes to create a tie coming from? There was zero movement in that direction in the last 30-40 minutes leading up to the vote.

[Barkeep49]

Perfect.

Barkeep, my vote changed nothing in terms of the results. 6-4 vs 7-3. I agree in hindsight it was a needless play but there was no value-add for me doing this as a Thing.

If you think that I was protecting Tanglewood (I wasn't), where were the two votes to create a tie coming from? There was zero movement in that direction in the last 30-40 minutes leading up to the vote.
I acutally agree that the switch provides little value if you are a badguy at this point and so is very helpful. Though since it provided little value as a goodguy perhaps it isn't quite as helpful. Anyhow I suppose you're not really on my radar screen as much as Tangle is. Or Blade for that matter.

[hoopsguy]

OK, now that the results are in - I think I'm the last person that should be discussing who I think the Things will be converting, as I'm the one in position to potentially negate their move.

I'm happy to take suggestions on who to guard.

[Barkeep49]

OK, now that the results are in - I think I'm the last person that should be discussing who I think the Things will be converting, as I'm the one in position to potentially negate their move.

I'm happy to take suggestions on who to guard.
I think you should protect cronin or I. I think we've most proven our humanness today and thus are a likely convert tonight. I know you'll make the right choice.

[hoopsguy]

One question I do have in terms of the guard play - what are your thoughts in terms of me trying to guard a Thing?

I don't know if I guarded CW as a Thing or as a human on Night 4. But if he was a Thing then I can tell you I don't get different results from guarding a human vs a Thing. Good news that I'm not converted, bad news that I don't get an auto-kill or witness or anything like that.

[Barkeep49]

I think there's great potential peril to you guarding a thing and as such would prefer you not do it. I see the chances of a potential upside (inadventant witness) much less then a potential downside (autmoatic conversion)

[hoopsguy]

Just to clarify - I'm happy to get feedback from people besides Barkeep here if anyone else cares to jump into the conversation ...

No, not you, Tyrith :)

[hoopsguy]

Dola, Barkeep and I now have 21 of the last 22 posts (interrupted by the results from Schmidty).

[Barkeep49]

Dola, Barkeep and I now have 21 of the last 22 posts (interrupted by the results from Schmidty).
Hey this has been fun. It's like when we IM each other when we're both baddies.
But yeah other people would be good.

[hoopsguy]

No complaints, except that I'm already pretty set in my opinion of you (pre-conversion tonight, anyways).

I'm still bummed we lost that game where we were bad guys together ... coulda, woulda, shoulda.

[Barkeep49]

No complaints, except that I'm already pretty set in my opinion of you (pre-conversion tonight, anyways).

I'm still bummed we lost that game where we were bad guys together ... coulda, woulda, shoulda.
Yeah that was a bummer. We were really rocking for such a long time and then things just fell apart. They nailed you. I made my move too soon. Alas.

But to broaden this out, Anxiety you still fixated on me?

[Abe Sargent]

But to broaden this out, Anxiety you still fixated on me?


I don't know yet. Maybe.


-Anxiety

[Barkeep49]

I don't know yet. Maybe.


-Anxiety
Well that's encouraging considering how hardcore you've been against me. Hope you keep moving in this direction. Unless they target me tonight. In which I now hope you stay suspicous, only to later hope you do not.

[path12]

So much for consensus.

Wasn't around for lynch. I don't think it's a great idea to talk too much about who to guard, except to say that I would agree with Barkeep that I think you should avoid a thing. ;-)

Interested in Cronin's thoughts.

[Blade6119]

I acutally agree that the switch provides little value if you are a badguy at this point and so is very helpful. Though since it provided little value as a goodguy perhaps it isn't quite as helpful. Anyhow I suppose you're not really on my radar screen as much as Tangle is. Or Blade for that matter.
Hey barkeep...just wanted to make a comment...we are going into a night...meaning conversion...why in gods name would the bodyguard not be their biggest target. They already proved they would attack the seer the night he revealed...now today the bodyguard revealed...just saying, not sure how hoops can be considered a non-suspect after his reveal

[Blade6119]

And lol at jeeber being innocent...i knew that one was coming from a mile away...i repeat my top two suspects, which havent changed for 4 votes now...Hoops and Tangle...test me if you want tomorrow, i really dont care anymore...Either way have a good night and best of luck to the things in their conversion attempt...as long as you dont pick me your guy should be safe as can be

[Schmidty]

Night actions due by 10 AM EST, as I am leaving for the weekend at 9 AM PST. After that, the Votes will be due by 9 PM EST Monday.

[Barkeep49]

Hey barkeep...just wanted to make a comment...we are going into a night...meaning conversion...why in gods name would the bodyguard not be their biggest target. They already proved they would attack the seer the night he revealed...now today the bodyguard revealed...just saying, not sure how hoops can be considered a non-suspect after his reveal
Haven't looked at the post since he did it but didn't hoops protect himself last night?

[path12]

Here is a list of who I have protected on each night:
Night 1: me
Night 2: Barkeep
Night 3: me again
Night 4: Coffee
Night 5: Blade


Nope, looks like he can protect himself tonight if he chose.

[Barkeep49]

You're right. Protecting himself would be a good thing I suppose.

[path12]

I find it kind of insane that the top 4 posters have over half the posts in a 2100 post thread with 13 still active players.

By the way, 86 (now 87, I guess) is like a babbling speed freak for me. Just sayin'.

[path12]

Are we speculating on conversion? Because the fact that Blade can't be guarded tonight isn't good, considering he'd be in my top four target list along with Barkeep, hoops and Cronin.

Or is that too obvious at this point? I'm really not sure.

[Barkeep49]

Well it hurts our conversion speculation not knowing who is already converted. For instance let's say Blade is already converted. I think he would be less likely to choose some people then if say you were already converted. With us still looking at 4 baddies out there I'm finding it hard to identify ONE person tonight who is most likely to be converted.

[path12]

Well it hurts our conversion speculation not knowing who is already converted. For instance let's say Blade is already converted. I think he would be less likely to choose some people then if say you were already converted. With us still looking at 4 baddies out there I'm finding it hard to identify ONE person tonight who is most likely to be converted.

For purposes of this I was just assuming everyone is good and trying to piece it out logically, since all I know is me and we have many suspects out there.

It's easier for me to look at that way: If I'm the only wolf and I have anybody I could convert, who would it be? You four would probably be top of the list at this point. If I start adding variables like who out of there is already bad I just start getting sidetracked.

[Raiders Army]

Jesus H. Christ on a bicycle. I knew we should've gone for Blade. He'll escape yet again tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

I'm glad that we have until Monday for the deadline today as my new client + evening plans would mean that I wouldn't have any access between now and late tonight.

I was hoping (but not expecting) that evening results would have been posted before I had to leave for the office. And I don't have any indication from Schmidty on the results of my action, so I'll just sit on this for now to avoid any late-send on Thing actions (probably being way paranoid here). Sorry if this slows anyone down in terms of their analysis this afternoon ...

[Barkeep49]

Just so you all know I had a dream in which Mckerny died during the night cycle. What this means I don't know.

[Raiders Army]

Just so you all know I had a dream in which Mckerny died during the night cycle. What this means I don't know.
You're Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat?

[Schmidty]

Night actions have been recieved.

Day 7 has begun. Votes due by Monday at 9 PM EST.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so much for my predictive powers. And I'm still not a shitface.

[Raiders Army]

VOTE BLADE6119
I don't think I need to give any explanation for this vote.

[JeeberD]

Christ, when are you guys ever going to believe me?

Mckerney's theory about cronin and Barkeep sacrificing CW is actually something that was bouncing around my head yesterday but never voiced. I really think it's a theory worth checking out...

[Abe Sargent]

Vote tanglewood


This is a placeholder vote until I think about it more.


-Anxiety

[st.cronin]

I think Tanglewood is (was) human. Blade I am very suspicious of.

I am still human. My top suspect: hoopsguy. If he wasn't a Thing already, he made the sense for a conversion last night. (In the same way that CW made sense - even if it's the obvious play, it's a pawn for pawn trade). I still like our strategy of getting some consensus to avoid last minute nuttiness, but I don't really have a good target in mind, other than hoops, and I'd like to see some discussion on the merits.

[st.cronin]

zzzzzzzzzzzz

[Blade6119]

[B]VOTE HOOPSGUY[B]

Ive said for days he was bad...i dont think he picked the wrong night to protect CW...i think he was already bad by the time CW went(night 3 supposedly)...and even if you dont believe he was bad then he is undoubtably the #1 canidate for conversion last night and going forward...for him to be clean today, or even tomorrow, is beyond me after im to believe CW went the night he revealed.

[Blade6119]

dola, bad vote

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[JeeberD]

Vote st cronin

I think it's quite possible that he and Barkeep are Things and sacrificed CW to try and clear themselves, AKA "The mckerney theory"/

[Barkeep49]

Want to hear from hoops, personally, before I start talking about what I think for the day.

[st.cronin]

Vote st cronin

I think it's quite possible that he and Barkeep are Things and sacrificed CW to try and clear themselves, AKA "The mckerney theory"/

No offense, fella, but you are terrible at this game.

[hoopsguy]

Sorry that I wasn't able to post before now. Long day + night yesterday. Beer + wine + mixed drinks = too drunk to sit and type in the "Drunk Guy" thread when I got home.

I stayed home last night on my guard. I figured that there was at least a 50% chance the Things made the obvious play last time (Night 3, as opposed to Night 5) so I tried to take away the obvious play.

Of course, no contact last night means that I'm extremely vulnerable when Monday evening rolls around.

[hoopsguy]

Just in case it wasn't clear, "stayed home last night on my guard" = guard Hoopsguy.

[st.cronin]

Just in case it wasn't clear, "stayed home last night on my guard" = guard Hoopsguy.

You had said earlier that you had guarded yourself the night BEFORE last, and that you couldn't guard yourself last night.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[hoopsguy]

Wrong, I guarded Blade on Night 5.

Night 1: me
Night 2: Barkeep
Night 3: me
Night 4: Coffee Warlord
Night 5: Blade
Night 6: me

I'll go look up the post where I listed the first five night so you don't think this is revisionist history.

[hoopsguy]

I can't guard back-to-back nights. If I could do that I would have stuck to CW like glue. But I can return to a person after taking one night to guard someone else. Which is what I did earlier in the game (Night 1 to Night 3) and would have done with CW for Night 6 if he had tested clean.

[hoopsguy]

From Post #1893:
Here is a list of who I have protected on each night:
Night 1: me
Night 2: Barkeep
Night 3: me again
Night 4: Coffee
Night 5: Blade

[st.cronin]

my bad - I thought you had said somewhere that it went you, Coffee, then you, and if Coffee had tested clean you would be on him that night.

My vote stands for now as I still think you're a likely Thing.

[JeeberD]

No offense, fella, but you are terrible at this game.

Most likely true, but which one of use has been certain about someone three or four times and right only once?

[Barkeep49]

Seems like now might be a good time to see if Raiders has been incredibly wrong for a long time.

Vote Blade

[Raiders Army]

If I'm wrong, I'll be incredibly surprised. I just need some peace of mind that he's either with us or against us. If he's with us, I think he's throwing too much junk out there (not lately though, he's laid low which may be meaningful in of itself).

[hoopsguy]

Blade makes a lot of sense as a convert last night, since I did make my reveal yesterday. There was only one person that the Things would have known was safe. Plus there is much less worry about him being a blessed based on the Day 1 "brilliant" bit.

The fact that he has been voting for me for the past 3-4 days really doesn't come into play here with this vote. I just figured that he is a pretty good bet to be a Thing today.

Cronin, I was pretty much set to vote for Blade for the reasons above but I'm getting to the point where I'm worried about you now. I made what I think was the obvious play yesterday in guarding myself, but now I'm a Thing? The whole reason that I came forward with my bodyguard reveal was to provide some clarity when people were deciding whether or not to vote for Coffee Warlord.

If I was playing as a Thing I would have at least said that I guarded him two out of three nights and tried to make the argument that there was a smaller window of time (one night instead of two) for CW to be converted.

I don't get why you would believe I was a human yesterday but a Thing today? Unless you think that I didn't guard myself last night and was converted - I guess I would have to use that lie if I found myself in that position. But I'm trying to extend my time as a human as long as possible ... I knew when I came forward with my reveal that I was going to jump up the list of people to convert. So I had the day of the reveal (Day 6) and the day after (today - Day 7) as days that I knew I would still be human and able to help us move the game forward. After that, I expect that I'll have a night PM from Schmidty telling me that I'm changing teams.

[st.cronin]

Blade makes a lot of sense as a convert last night, since I did make my reveal yesterday. There was only one person that the Things would have known was safe. Plus there is much less worry about him being a blessed based on the Day 1 "brilliant" bit.

The fact that he has been voting for me for the past 3-4 days really doesn't come into play here with this vote. I just figured that he is a pretty good bet to be a Thing today.

Cronin, I was pretty much set to vote for Blade for the reasons above but I'm getting to the point where I'm worried about you now. I made what I think was the obvious play yesterday in guarding myself, but now I'm a Thing? The whole reason that I came forward with my bodyguard reveal was to provide some clarity when people were deciding whether or not to vote for Coffee Warlord.

If I was playing as a Thing I would have at least said that I guarded him two out of three nights and tried to make the argument that there was a smaller window of time (one night instead of two) for CW to be converted.

I don't get why you would believe I was a human yesterday but a Thing today? Unless you think that I didn't guard myself last night and was converted - I guess I would have to use that lie if I found myself in that position. But I'm trying to extend my time as a human as long as possible ... I knew when I came forward with my reveal that I was going to jump up the list of people to convert. So I had the day of the reveal (Day 6) and the day after (today - Day 7) as days that I knew I would still be human and able to help us move the game forward. After that, I expect that I'll have a night PM from Schmidty telling me that I'm changing teams.


Those are all good points. I have been suspicious of Blade for a long time, and I still think consensus is the best play for humans.

unvote hoopsguy

vote Blade

I was all ready to be suspicious of you, hoops, thinking that you couldn't guard yourself last night.

[hoopsguy]

D'oh - didn't get my vote in during the last post ... had wanted to put it at the end of the post.

VOTE BLADE6119

[Barkeep49]

Those are all good points. I have been suspicious of Blade for a long time, and I still think consensus is the best play for humans..

Why the consensus? Because then if we're wrong we don't get anything really. I mean yesterday Jeebs went against the consensus and look at where that got us.

[st.cronin]

Why the consensus? Because then if we're wrong we don't get anything really. I mean yesterday Jeebs went against the consensus and look at where that got us.

It seems like, in this game, close votes don't get us anywhere. Both saldana and CW were more or less consensus picks.

I do see the negatives, but I think in this game voting patterns are less useful as the game goes on, so the bad guys don't worry so much about monkeying with close votes.

I see the basic strategies as being different in this game, as opposed to more traditional versions.

[Barkeep49]

It seems like, in this game, close votes don't get us anywhere. Both saldana and CW were more or less consensus picks.

I do see the negatives, but I think in this game voting patterns are less useful as the game goes on, so the bad guys don't worry so much about monkeying with close votes.

I see the basic strategies as being different in this game, as opposed to more traditional versions.
If Blade IS a bad guy I think voting patterns are useful as we could reasonably argue he was a shitface for at least a couple days. I agree it's important in the sense that we shouldn't let the shitfaces be able to dictate voting, but do have some reservations. Anyhow, my vote is on Blade today and I am liking seeing so many others on him as well.

[st.cronin]

If Blade IS a bad guy I think voting patterns are useful as we could reasonably argue he was a shitface for at least a couple days. I agree it's important in the sense that we shouldn't let the shitfaces be able to dictate voting, but do have some reservations. Anyhow, my vote is on Blade today and I am liking seeing so many others on him as well.

That's how I feel, as well.

How many Things are there now? 5?

[Barkeep49]

That's how I feel, as well.

How many Things are there now? 5?
I believe that is correct.

[Blade6119]

Et tu, Barkeep?

Oh well, my vote is for hoopsguy and will be tomorrow as well. If you have any questions for me ill answer but im not going to try and defend myself.

[Barkeep49]

Et tu, Barkeep?

Oh well, my vote is for hoopsguy and will be tomorrow as well. If you have any questions for me ill answer but im not going to try and defend myself.
Which I think is not in the spirit of the game and am disappointed to see from you.

[Barkeep49]

DOLA -- The other time I know you didn't defend was in the TH game where you were a bad guy which makes me wonder.

[Blade6119]

Which I think is not in the spirit of the game and am disappointed to see from you.
I have had to defend myself from RA and others(st. cronin, swaggs, etc.) for days now...i have said just about everything i can...i dont feel like repeating the same arguments over and over again. If you want i can go requote if you would like, but i have repeatedly made my case for hoops, no one has cared...i have repeatedly made my case for my innocence...no one has cared...i dont see why today will be any different. Just like the game i had you pinned as a thing all game long but no one listened, ive reached a point where i have stopped trying and will do whatever the group wants. You guys want to test me, fine...i have nothing to hide, as i have been nothing but honest this entire game. All i care about right now is trying to figure out just how my accusers(including the guy i have been after for 5 votes now) will spin my testing to their own benefit. If you have any questions, i told you i will answer them. My defense has been stated and re-stated this game. Seeing as how im still the exact same role i was every other day, my argument is exactly the same as well.

[st.cronin]

I have had to defend myself from RA and others(st. cronin, swaggs, etc.) for days now...i have said just about everything i can...i dont feel like repeating the same arguments over and over again. If you want i can go requote if you would like, but i have repeatedly made my case for hoops, no one has cared...i have repeatedly made my case for my innocence...no one has cared...i dont see why today will be any different. Just like the game i had you pinned as a thing all game long but no one listened, ive reached a point where i have stopped trying and will do whatever the group wants. You guys want to test me, fine...i have nothing to hide, as i have been nothing but honest this entire game. All i care about right now is trying to figure out just how my accusers(including the guy i have been after for 5 votes now) will spin my testing to their own benefit. If you have any questions, i told you i will answer them. My defense has been stated and re-stated this game. Seeing as how im still the exact same role i was every other day, my argument is exactly the same as well.

hoops was very helpful in yesterday's bbq

I am suspicious of him as well, but we won't have anything concrete until tomorrow.

[Blade6119]

hoops was very helpful in yesterday's bbq

I am suspicious of him as well, but we won't have anything concrete until tomorrow.
Yesterdays BBQ? Im sorry, i must have missed where he was very helpful. He came onto and voted CW after it was already dead set CW was going to burn...hows that very helpful? Maybe you mean the second vote, where you guys tested a villager...Where was he very helpful might i ask?

[st.cronin]

Yesterdays BBQ? Im sorry, i must have missed where he was very helpful. He came onto and voted CW after it was already dead set CW was going to burn...hows that very helpful? Maybe you mean the second vote, where you guys tested a villager...Where was he very helpful might i ask?

Early on, before voting, he endorsed the vote, then added the reveal which actually made the vote more convincing. I mean, yeah, maybe he's a Thing. I'm not saying he's clear, but his actions yesterday were overall helpful to the human cause.

[Blade6119]

Early on, before voting, he endorsed the vote, then added the reveal which actually made the vote more convincing. I mean, yeah, maybe he's a Thing. I'm not saying he's clear, but his actions yesterday were overall helpful to the human cause.
If you feel that way thats fine...i just feel like yesterday was a pretty much foregone conclusion that CW was going down, and as a thing i would have done everything in my power to make sure i looked like one of the ones crucifying him if hes already going down. I see your side, but i just feel like its just him trying to play you. Oh well, he is my vote today, tomorrow, and every day until we kill him.

[st.cronin]

If you feel that way thats fine...i just feel like yesterday was a pretty much foregone conclusion that CW was going down, and as a thing i would have done everything in my power to make sure i looked like one of the ones crucifying him if hes already going down. I see your side, but i just feel like its just him trying to play you. Oh well, he is my vote today, tomorrow, and every day until we kill him.

I agree that hoops played very carefully. But at the beginning of the day it was NOT a foregone conclusion that CW was going down. At least, no more a foregone conclusion than it had been the day before.

Also keep in mind that hoops reveal pretty much ensures that he will be tested sooner rather than later.

[Blade6119]

Also keep in mind that hoops reveal pretty much ensures that he will be tested sooner rather than later.
sooner or later is exactly what they want...if they have been converting every night were prob. 2-3 votes from losing...as a thing sooner or later might just win the game for them. Today is a wasted day, im clean..i just hope we make better use of tomorrow. Oh well, back to a video game and watching the draft.

[Blade6119]

Dola, as a thought...Dubb is still in the game, but he has stopped playing...that might be a stunningly amazing conversion target...food for thought..he would count in the human-thing count but would likely never be tested...just crossed my mind

[Barkeep49]

Dola, as a thought...Dubb is still in the game, but he has stopped playing...that might be a stunningly amazing conversion target...food for thought..he would count in the human-thing count but would likely never be tested...just crossed my mind
Dubb is not in the game. King is.

[Blade6119]

Dubb is not in the game. King is.
Ah, missed that...my fault...still same effect though a tad diminished...king hasnt done much since coming in.

[Barkeep49]

I would agree with Blade that I would like to hear from King. I don't blame him for not wanting to reread 40+ pages but hearing some questions at least might help get some discussion going.

[Abe Sargent]

Still a placeholder, likely.


Unvote tanglewood

Vote Blade


-Anxiety

[Barkeep49]

A placeholder for what?

[Abe Sargent]

Until I figure out who I really want to vote for. So if I can't figure it out, then I already have a vote.


-Anxiety

[Barkeep49]

Until I figure out who I really want to vote for. So if I can't figure it out, then I already have a vote.


-Anxiety
What would it take to help you make up your mind? Better to have votes locked in early to try and avoid last minute manipulation.

[path12]

Haven't been around much the past couple of days, but it looks like the consensus is revolving around Blade. I don't have a counter to that right now, so:

VOTE BLADE

[Raiders Army]

I can't wait until tomorrow night. I'll either see him burn or apologize to him. I hope the former.

[Blade6119]

I can't wait until tomorrow night. I'll either see him burn or apologize to him. I hope the former.
Since im already as good as tested i think tomorrow night(or sooner if we can get peope to vote) will be most entertaining :D

[hoopsguy]

Vote count as of Post #2227:

Blade - Raiders (2179), Barkeep (2197), Cronin (2200), Hoopsguy (2201), Anxiety (2221), path (2225)

Hoopsguy - Blade (2185)

Cronin - Jeeber (2186)


Not voted: Tanglewood, King, Swaggs, mckerney, WVUFAN

[hoopsguy]

Blade, I was hoping to catch up with you some point tonight or tomorrow morning ...

Just for a second, take me out of your list of suspects (I know, it messes up your entire premise for the game for 5+ days). Who else do you think are likely Things? Do you think that you are being bandwagoned up to this point by Things or by mistaken scientists?

I'm worried that you are legit, they convert Monday night, and I'm tested Tuesday. If they have been converting every night (and leave me alone tomorrow night) then we lose the game because they will have their win numbers (7-6).

[Blade6119]

Blade, I was hoping to catch up with you some point tonight or tomorrow morning ...

Just for a second, take me out of your list of suspects (I know, it messes up your entire premise for the game for 5+ days). Who else do you think are likely Things? Do you think that you are being bandwagoned up to this point by Things or by mistaken scientists?

I'm worried that you are legit, they convert Monday night, and I'm tested Tuesday. If they have been converting every night (and leave me alone tomorrow night) then we lose the game because they will have their win numbers (7-6).
Tanglewood, swaggs, kingfc and raiders army...cronin is a misguided villager to me, barkeep is an oddball, and is 1 comment from adding to that list...thats if we have conversions everynight. Though you are still on top of my list, and this comment feels like you are just doing more positioning. But you have your answer(which will be moot after you test me and they convert another)

[hoopsguy]

Well, I'm actually trying to win the game. I've trusted you for the most part this game but I think the chances of you being converted last night after my reveal were almost too good for the Things to pass up.

If you are tested and proved to be a Thing, then I will like having this post to try and figure out if you are playing mind games (listing Things, hoping we will ignore them) or straight (listing villagers, hoping we will expect them to be Things. That part of the game is fun for me.

If you are tested and proved to be a scientist, then I expect that I'll be tested the next night if you remain 100% focused on me. I'm sure you will be doing exactly that if they convert you tomorrow night.

As it stands, I'm focusing on getting a Thing on Day 7 with my vote. But if I'm wrong and you are innocent then I think I see how the end-game goes down.

[Blade6119]

Well, I'm actually trying to win the game. I've trusted you for the most part this game but I think the chances of you being converted last night after my reveal were almost too good for the Things to pass up.

If you are tested and proved to be a Thing, then I will like having this post to try and figure out if you are playing mind games (listing Things, hoping we will ignore them) or straight (listing villagers, hoping we will expect them to be Things. That part of the game is fun for me.

If you are tested and proved to be a scientist, then I expect that I'll be tested the next night if you remain 100% focused on me. I'm sure you will be doing exactly that if they convert you tomorrow night.

As it stands, I'm focusing on getting a Thing on Day 7 with my vote. But if I'm wrong and you are innocent then I think I see how the end-game goes down.Oh, i already believe we have lost this game...The conversions have thrown our circle of trusts into utter uselessness, and personally im just lost if your not a thing. For us to win starting tomorrow we will have to kill a thing everyday...which i dont see as likely....

Im just looking forward to endgame so i can see what actions were taken every night(or not taken in your part)

[Raiders Army]

Oh, i already believe we have lost this game...The conversions have thrown our circle of trusts into utter uselessness, and personally im just lost if your not a thing. For us to win starting tomorrow we will have to kill a thing everyday...which i dont see as likely....
I can agree with this wholeheartedly. At this point I wish I could get converted just so I could see what's going on. There are good points to being a baddie in these games. At least you know who's on your side. :) The bad point to being a baddie is the obligation you have to the team. Whenever I was a wolf, it seemed as if I had to stay online to help the team. At least being a villager, you can come and go as you please. :)

[Barkeep49]

Ah yes that feeling of hopelessness. I know it well. But I feel while we might be statistically closer to losing, we aren't in any more of dire straights, I feel, then we have been since Day 3. So I say we go forward with vigor and hope that we get Blade today and perhaps Tangle, who I agree is still emitting shitface left and right, tomorrow and hope we get a 2nd chance on one of them.

[st.cronin]

The closer they get to winning, the harder it is for us NOT to vote for a Thing. But for the humans to win, they have to nail 2 things pretty much every day.

[path12]

The closer they get to winning, the harder it is for us NOT to vote for a Thing. But for the humans to win, they have to nail 2 things pretty much every day.

This is kind of where I'm at too -- we've GOT to hit one sooner or later. I'm hoping that we can get enough clues once we nail one that we can get on a roll.

That said, this is the kind of game that makes me realize how much I suck at werewolf still. :(

[kingfc22]

VOTE BLADE

Didn't realize jumping into a WW game in the middle was so hard. I know that I am not a Thing yet and our chances of hitting one get better each day.

Let's just hope today is one of those days.

[Raiders Army]

I'm still waiting for Blade to pull off his "vote for someone else" thing that always seems to happen. :D

[Swaggs]

I had a busy weeking, but have been following along by reading.

Looks like we are either out of helpful roles or that the helpful roles are not ready to reveal much to us (leaning toward the prior). I am thinking we are bound to hit someone, just by sheer luck, soon and Blade makes as much sense as anyone else.

Vote Blade6119

[Swaggs]

I had a busy weeking, but have been following along by reading.

Looks like we are either out of helpful roles or that the helpful roles are not ready to reveal much to us (leaning toward the prior). I am thinking we are bound to hit someone, just by sheer luck, soon and Blade makes as much sense as anyone else.

Vote Blade6119

[Swaggs]

Whoops.

Disregard one of the prior posts. Things seemed to jam up on me, so I tried to stop and repost.

[Barkeep49]

I'm still waiting for Blade to pull off his "vote for someone else" thing that always seems to happen. :D
If he can get a group around tangle I will go that way. Otherwise I'm locked on him.

[Raiders Army]

Due to the lack of discussion, I will be out tonight in about an hour. Fixing shishkabobs right now over rice pilaf and green beans. Prison Break and the Apprentice are on tonight, so I'll be out around 7 EST.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #2243:

Blade - Raiders (2179), Barkeep (2197), Cronin (2200), Hoopsguy (2201), Anxiety (2221), path (2225), Kingfc (2237), Swaggs (2239)

Hoopsguy - Blade (2185)

Cronin - Jeeber (2186)


Not voted: Tanglewood, mckerney, WVUFAN

[mckerney]

Vote Barkeep

[hoopsguy]

Not much to discuss here at this point, is there?

King, I agree that it is tough coming in mid-game for any WW game. I'm not sure if this one is easier or harder since catching up with who trusted who the day before is pretty worthless in this game.

What do people think is contributing to the sense of helplessness in this game? Is it the fact that the circles of trust model, which we have come to rely upon, has minimal value? Is it because the game has gone on longer (into our 3rd week now) than usual? Or is it just a lack of success catching Things? We aren't that far removed from catching Coffee Warlord, but it does feel like a long, long time ago.

[Raiders Army]

I'm out for the night. I hope Blade is a Thing. If he isn't, then I don't know where to go from here.

[st.cronin]

Not much to discuss here at this point, is there?

King, I agree that it is tough coming in mid-game for any WW game. I'm not sure if this one is easier or harder since catching up with who trusted who the day before is pretty worthless in this game.

What do people think is contributing to the sense of helplessness in this game? Is it the fact that the circles of trust model, which we have come to rely upon, has minimal value? Is it because the game has gone on longer (into our 3rd week now) than usual? Or is it just a lack of success catching Things? We aren't that far removed from catching Coffee Warlord, but it does feel like a long, long time ago.

I blame Joey Harrington.

[hoopsguy]

I blame his wide receivers.

[st.cronin]

I blame his wide receivers.

That's a good point. Trading him is a mistake - they would have been smarter to sign him to an extension and draft Holmes or somebody.