Werewolf LXI - Ocean's Eleven (GAME OVER, SEE PAGE 19 FOR RESULT.)

[claphamsa]

what is a COT? I forget :(

[claphamsa]

*takes a breath* *sighs* anyway. Beyond lathum's personel death warrent for me, why are the rest of your voting for what is normally a trusted role? The simple possibility that there is an evil opposite? Or is there some real evidence?

Come on people, stop following Lathum's coattails like well beaten dogs. Give pepole some validation for taking out a good role villager!

If the seer scans me, how are they supposed to get that info to YOU Lathum? I'm all for it, but I want you to stop this attempt to OUT the seer by demanding that its the only way you'll trust me. Talk about wolfish. Others have bad vibes about you, but this really makes my skin crawl.


The thing that suprises me the most about this is my top 3 are the ones voting for you, which seems real silly and obvious. Why would they pile on you if you really were the duke? this is making me doubt my previousl thouhgts! that being said I cant get these arguemtns either. they are rediculous!

[Lathum]

:rolleyes: Explain this, You have NO real reason beyond a gut feeling here. you have a 0/50 shot at being right and I hate to break it to you, but yer wrong, again, about me.

Why do you always have a stick up the butt about me? You drive votes against me constantly, and you've never been right?

actualy I have been right about you in the past.

You are taking it way to personaly as usual.

I have more then a gut feeling. From the rules

Loyal Wolf: You function as a regular wolf, but have the ability to change one lynching from the selected candidate to the person of your choosing. You will know this role from the beginning.


The Persuader: You can change the lynch results one time to a player of your choosing.


Not all roles may be in the game. Best of luck


you are claiming that you are a role that is usuay trusted but there is no way to verify which duke you are.

To me a vote for you is the most logical way to go since you have already used up your ability.

[Abe Sargent]

Let me try turning your own reasoning back at you here:

If what you say is true and players take more risks as villagers than as wolves:

What seems more likely? That I took the big risk in duling to ches as a good duke or as a bad one? Using the ability like that is a huge risk for the bad duke because it does exactly what we see here, it gets people coming after him. So based on your own theory, it would have been utterly stupid of me to use the ability so early without knowing that my target was worthwile.

We've recently seen the addition of BGs kjnowin g what roles are in teh game to rulessets, no reason to think they aren;t in this one too.

[RendeR]

But again, the real point isn't that voting for me is logical, its that YOU don't trust me, which is perfectly aceptable. but you have no validation for getting others to trust you. I'm not taking this personally, I'm stating a fact, you have a case for me in EVERY game, with or without reason and I do recall one game when you were right, so I stand corrected there.


This is what bothers me, BK and Anxiety lining up like sheep to follow your gut instincts. And don't tell me you have more than that because you don't. You have a 50/50 shot and your GUESSING lathum, and instead of considering that you might be wrong or coming up with aything more relevant than "the rules say not all roles are in the game" you throw down an ultimatum that only outing the seer can provide.

Lynching me is a complete mistake and does nothing but give the wolves 2 more dead villagers on day 2. Odds are the villagers lose after this. Lynching me gains nothing beyond soothing Lathum's assumptions.

I'm done.

VOTE LATHUM (Argues that he's got a valid reason when in fact he's guessing, throws out and ultimatum that will out the good seer, argues for lynching someone with a known role that canot harm anyone further but in fact CAN build a CoT around)
I'll be back tomorrow.

[Lathum]

I never said that I wanted the seer to say anything. You are attempting to put words in my mouth.

Plus if anyone has a candidate that is better the 50/50 at this point I will gladly switch to them.

[Lathum]

dola- I also never carry over anything from game to game. The fact that Render and I have butted heads in the pass has no bearing on this game.

[Passacaglia]

dola- I also never carry over anything from game to game. The fact that Render and I have butted heads in the pass has no bearing on this game.

Ew. You'd think I'd remember that.

Anyway, RendeR takes things personally as a villager, too. So I don't think that his reactions today make him look any more or less wolfish.

[Passacaglia]

that isn't really a satisfactory explination. You usually are the type of player that votes based on your own theories. Not someone else's day old theory.

First of all, I never expected you to find my reasoning for voting for you satisfactory. You called my vote a hit and run, when it was failry obvious that I had been there and giving my reasons the whole time. Again, I'm not trying to convince you -- just pointing out that it was not hit and run.

[Passacaglia]

what is a COT? I forget :(

Nice job helping out the newb, guys. COT = circle of trust.

[path12]

I have to go now, and won't be back before deadline. This sucks that I can't argue my case more, but here is my preservation vote:

VOTE RENDER

[ntndeacon]

I never said that I wanted the seer to say anything. You are attempting to put words in my mouth.

Plus if anyone has a candidate that is better the 50/50 at this point I will gladly switch to them.

Someone said why it was a 50/50 proposition before. I need this explained to me. I am actually seeing it as a 33/67 proposition of Render's Guilt.

The three possibilities I see are :
1. Render is the Loyal Wolf (wolf's Duke) and there is no good duke.
2. Render is the Persuader (village Duke) and there is no bad duke.
3. Render is the Persuader and there IS a Loyal Wolf as well.

In terms of Render being the Loyal wolf and a Pursuader also in the game... this is a non factor.
First, I don't believe it, as I think the Pursuader would have come forward. And Secondly, Even if it WAS true, then it won't matter who we decide to lynch, as the Pursuader will duke to the then known wolf.

[Barkeep49]

NTN I think you actually argue for a situation 4, quite convincingly. If I'm the good Duke I stay quiet and simply duke it over to Render at the end. So we're back to 50/50.

[Barkeep49]

FTR, I'm not upset, at all, to see pressure on path. He's my other suspect.

[ntndeacon]

NTN I think you actually argue for a situation 4, quite convincingly. If I'm the good Duke I stay quiet and simply duke it over to Render at the end. So we're back to 50/50.

True, but from a practical stand point situation 4 should not really concern us the average workaday villager. so for our voting aspect, we should treat this as it has 0% chance of happening. so this is why I say 33/67

[ntndeacon]

the path vote for me was the lesser of the 4 candidates in terms of trust. I don't DIStrust him yet, but he seemed more of a cypher to me thus far.

[Barkeep49]

True, but from a practical stand point situation 4 should not really concern us the average workaday villager. so for our voting aspect, we should treat this as it has 0% chance of happening. so this is why I say 33/67
Why should we treat this as a 0%?

[ntndeacon]

Why should we treat this as a 0%?

We have both agreed that if there is a good duke other than Render, that they should stay quiet and duke the heck outta him at the end. Well ihaven't said iagree, but I do. :) then nothing we do will change that.

Another point..(not about the 0%) this will give us a look at another unknown for us. So we have a possibility of determining 2 names with not voting for Render. Render's and either a duke or the other person we lynch

[Barkeep49]

We have both agreed that if there is a good duke other than Render, that they should stay quiet and duke the heck outta him at the end. Well ihaven't said iagree, but I do. :) then nothing we do will change that.

True. But the existance of a 4th possibility, equal with others, suggests there is still a 50/50 shot that he's bad. I like voting for bad guys.

Another point..(not about the 0%) this will give us a look at another unknown for us. So we have a possibility of determining 2 names with not voting for Render. Render's and either a duke or the other person we lynch

Can you explain this point for me (sorry I'm dim tonight)?

[ntndeacon]

True. But the existance of a 4th possibility, equal with others, suggests there is still a 50/50 shot that he's bad. I like voting for bad guys.



Can you explain this point for me (sorry I'm dim tonight)?

I don't see this 4th possibility as equal to the others.

As for my other post. If we do not vote for Render we verifiy 2 folks the partially verified Render and either the Lynchee who is dead, or a new Duke.

[PurdueBrad]

Here is the current vote tally (as of post 520):

RendeR (4)- Barkeep49 (421), Lathum (465), Anxiety (476), Path12 (511)
Path12 (3)- Claphamsa (422), SnDvls (462), ntndeacon (489)
Barkeep49 (2)- Telle (455), jeheinz72 (479)
Lathum (2)- Passacaglia (453), RendeR (505)

[Lathum]

render voted for me brad

[PurdueBrad]

render voted for me brad

Fixed as of 7:19. Above vote summary is currently correct.

[Lathum]

man. sure got quiet

[RendeR]

Grrrr. I hate ties.


Self preservation vote:

UNVOTE LATHUM

VOTE PATH12

[RendeR]

How do you fix TIES Brad? ;)

[claphamsa]

Wow I made it back in time to make a final decision and there is none to make :(

[PurdueBrad]

Here is the current vote tally (as of post 526):

RendeR (4)- Barkeep49 (421), Lathum (465), Anxiety (476), Path12 (511)
Path12 (4)- Claphamsa (422), SnDvls (462), ntndeacon (489), RendeR (525)
Barkeep49 (2)- Telle (455), jeheinz72 (479)
Lathum (1)- Passacaglia (453)

[PurdueBrad]

DEADLINE...WRITE-UP WILL TAKE A SECOND DUE TO GAME DYNAMIC...

[SnDvls]

the anticipation for this should be good since it's an unknown

[claphamsa]

Do we break for the weekend?

[Lathum]

I hate the tie this late in the game

[ntndeacon]

Do we break for the weekend?

Usually we have just a more relaxed system. maybe one day for the weekend sometimes one day one Sat til Sun afternoon and then another from then til Monday night.

[RendeR]

I hate the tie this late in the game


its day 2 lathum......

[Lathum]

its day 2 lathum......

actualy it's day 3.

[PurdueBrad]

Last night's loss of Chief Rum has left the team reeling. You decide that Vegas is no longer safe and that your best chance is to get on the road. Two cargo vans, all your gear, and your wounded pride hop on the road out of Lost Wages and to Los Angeles.

The team is about half an hour out of town, when one cell phone rings, then another, eventually among the two vans eleven cell phones ring in unison.

You are the first one to answer and you hear a familiar voice:

"Put me on speaker..."

"So, I get one damn phone call from this rotten jail and what do I find? You guys turning tail and running? I think not. This is Ocean's Eleven, as in Danny Oceans' eleven man crew. You may not be able to break me out of jail but I'll tell you this, you head back to Vegas and Benedict will never see you coming."

Everyone looks around, shocked to hear the voice of their leader echoing through the vans.

"Well boys, we knew this score would be hard, we figured some of us wouldn't make it but we ain't busted yet. In fact, I feel a lucky streak coming on and it all starts now. Tonight, no style, no grace, no cleverness, tonight is all about shock and awe..."

[PurdueBrad]

The Desert Inn and The Flamingo...SIMULTANEOUSLY!

The crew splits in half and rams the vans through the front door of each casino. Waving guns, yelling, and causing general chaos is enough to catch Benedict, his goons, and most importantly, his money, by surprise.

The first team at the Desert Inn of RendeR, Anxiety, Path 12, ntndeacon, and Barkeep49 finish first, pulling in a cool $27 million dollars into the back of their van.

Moments later the second team finishes their score. Sndvls, Claphamsa, Lathum, Jeheinz72, and Telle try to top it...and do! $31 million!!

$58 million in just a matter of minutes. The celebration is on, the Kristal is popping, Danny is on the phone in jail drinking some jail cell hooch, but wait...

[PurdueBrad]

"Where is Passacaglia," St. Cronin asks through the phone's speaker.

Everyone looks around and nobody knows. In fact, in all the excitement, nobody even remembers which team he was with.

Or at least nobody claims to remember.

Pass is found moments later by the Las Vegas PD, duct-taped inside the casino vault. On his head is a nice little red gift bow and a little note that says, "Merry Christmas Terry, one more down, many more to come. Love, your wolves."

Pass was 'Mushy' O'Connor, simple villager.


BEGIN DAY FOUR...

(Cronin is back, bringing back the Oceans' win-set. However, he cannot vote, chat, or be voted out)

[Lathum]

I;m confused.

was Pass the night target or the result of the tie?

[RendeR]

well thats new....

[claphamsa]

"Where is Passacaglia," St. Cronin asks through the phone's speaker.

Everyone looks around and nobody knows. In fact, in all the excitement, nobody even remembers which team he was with.

Or at least nobody claims to remember.

Pass is found moments later by the Las Vegas PD, duct-taped inside the casino vault. On his head is a nice little red gift bow and a little note that says, "Merry Christmas Terry, one more down, many more to come. Love, your wolves."

BEGIN DAY FOUR...

(Cronin is back, bringing back the Oceans' win-set. However, he cannot vote, chat, or be voted out)


WTF!

So Pass is dead? Even tho he had no votes? and Cronin is back? but he cant do anything. uhhhhh

[RendeR]

Pass was the night kill/target based on the note.

[PurdueBrad]

I;m confused.

was Pass the night target or the result of the tie?

I hoped the card would give it away...the wolves have struck.

[SnDvls]

Pass was the night kill/target based on the note.

that would be my guess and St. C/Danny Oceans is back as a result of the tie, but in a limited role

[claphamsa]

Pass was the night kill/target based on the note.

oh yeah, i keep forgettgin the run simultaneouosly! so either the BG protected somone or ties dont count. or whok konws :)

[RendeR]

actualy it's day 3.


day 4 now..but yea, I missed a day in there somewhere....


Get your vote on me, get it over with.

[Lathum]

so the result of the tie is a no lynch?

[Lathum]

PurdueBrad- Does Oceans count towards winning ratio numbers?

[SnDvls]

PurdueBrad- Does Oceans count towards winning ratio numbers?

I would guess not since he can't be voted out again either.

[PurdueBrad]

Oceans does not count towards your win ratio. This no lynch was one of several possible outcomes of the tie. There were half a dozen outcomes possible here, most did not involve a no lynch.

[claphamsa]

Do I get my cut of the 58 Mil? Thats a lot of frozen huricanes.

[claphamsa]

Oceans does not count towards your win ratio. This no lynch was one of several possible outcomes of the tie. There were half a dozen outcomes possible here, most did not involve a no lynch.


Random?

[PurdueBrad]

Random?

YEP.

[PurdueBrad]

Do I get my cut of the 58 Mil? Thats a lot of frozen huricanes.

Only if the GM gets a cut too 'cause that would be some pretty damn strong Pina Coladas!

I know, I know, a girly drink but I'm stuck up here in cold Illinois and could use a little umbrella drink and some sun right about now.

[claphamsa]

YEP.




nice edit ;)

[claphamsa]

Only if the GM gets a cut too 'cause that would be some pretty damn strong Pina Coladas!

I know, I know, a girly drink but I'm stuck up here in cold Illinois and could use a little umbrella drink and some sun right about now.

shoulda come out for margaritas!

[PurdueBrad]

nice edit ;)

To be honest, the grammatical structure of my sentence was driving me crazy (I'm an English teacher) so I just chopped off all but the first word.

For those that missed it pre-edit, this dynamic in a tie was one of the two least likely for random.org to pick based on percentages.

[Lathum]

OK, these are the players we have left. I am assuming we have 2-3 wolves remaining so we need to make something happen. Now I am assuming we have 2 seers based on the information that we converted the arrogant seer.

I am going to come out now and say I am the bodyguard. The reason I am doing it is 2 fold. At some point I am gonna get lynched or night killed and I don't want my information to go with me.

On night 1 I protected JHeinz and there was no kill that night. Ordinaraly I would find this not a huge deal but the wording in the PM for my night 1 result was different then the results of my next 2 nights, which were identical. I protected Barkeep night 2. My night 3 target will remain a secret

Now according to the rules I can't protect myself but there are items out there. I think it may be a good idea for the seer to reveal there first 3 night targets so we can get a really solid CoT going. I can then protect them tomorrow night and give them another shot at a scan.


Barkeep49
Claphamsa
jeheinz72
RendeR
Telle
SnDvls
Path12
ntndeacon
Anxiety
Lathum

[claphamsa]

To be honest, the grammatical structure of my sentence was driving me crazy (I'm an English teacher) so I just chopped off all but the first word.

For those that missed it pre-edit, this dynamic in a tie was one of the two least likely for random.org to pick based on percentages.


An english teacher who manages to spend all day on a message board? nice gig!@@

[Barkeep49]

I like Lathum's plan. I support his suggestion for a seer reveal.

[PurdueBrad]

An english teacher who manages to spend all day on a message board? nice gig!@@

Yeah, student teacher's are a great thing to have...when they are good.

[claphamsa]

OK, these are the players we have left. I am assuming we have 2-3 wolves remaining so we need to make something happen. Now I am assuming we have 2 seers based on the information that we converted the arrogant seer.

I am going to come out now and say I am the bodyguard. The reason I am doing it is 2 fold. At some point I am gonna get lynched or night killed and I don't want my information to go with me.

On night 1 I protected JHeinz and there was no kill that night. Ordinaraly I would find this not a huge deal but the wording in the PM for my night 1 result was different then the results of my next 2 nights, which were identical. I protected Barkeep night 2. My night 3 target will remain a secret

Now according to the rules I can't protect myself but there are items out there. I think it may be a good idea for the seer to reveal there first 3 night targets so we can get a really solid CoT going. I can then protect them tomorrow night and give them another shot at a scan.


Barkeep49
Claphamsa
jeheinz72
RendeR
Telle
SnDvls
Path12
ntndeacon
Anxiety
Lathum


''why not night 3 protect?

[claphamsa]

I like Lathum's plan. I support his suggestion for a seer reveal.


Seriosuly people? AM I the only one who realized this guy is a wolf?

[claphamsa]

Seriosuly people? AM I the only one who realized this guy is a wolf?

dola, the seer should only reveal if they have real info to pas on! like heinz and pass are wolves (im not suggestign this thats why i picked smone dead)

[Lathum]

''why not night 3 protect?

because I can't protect the same player 2 nights in a row.

[claphamsa]

DOLA DOLA DOLA DOLA DOLA

vote BK

[claphamsa]

because I can't protect the same player 2 nights in a row.


an excelent reason :)

[Lathum]

dola, the seer should only reveal if they have real info to pas on! like heinz and pass are wolves (im not suggestign this thats why i picked smone dead)

well here is the thing.

There are 10 players left. We can assume the seer can clear 3 players ( unless they scanned someone who is dead). That brings us to 7 uncleared players. Factor in the actual seer that makes 6. I make 5 and Clap makes 4 unknowns.

Factor in Render as a maybe cleared that leaves 3 candidates. Which gives us a 66% chance of hitting someone.

[PurdueBrad]

IMPORTANT NOTE:

I apparently used an older model on night one for my PM to Lathum that I did not use night two or three. The wording of that PM is not indicative of any role that any of the three characters may/may not have. There is a dynamic in which things can be learned but it would've been spelled out in a very clear manner. My apologies for this as I didn't notice until reading Lathum's post.

[ntndeacon]

well here is the thing.

There are 10 players left. We can assume the seer can clear 3 players ( unless they scanned someone who is dead). That brings us to 7 uncleared players. Factor in the actual seer that makes 6. I make 5 and Clap makes 4 unknowns.

Factor in Render as a maybe cleared that leaves 3 candidates. Which gives us a 66% chance of hitting someone.

you are being a touch optimistic here. Lets suppose the seer has scanned all living players, did the seer become a seer before or after night one's scan? if after then night ones scan is completely random, as they were only an arrogant seer. So in this possible scenario we have a 50% chance of hitting someone.

[Lathum]

I am assuming we started with a seer and had one converted after night 1. I think it's time to get some info out there before someone valuable gets night killed and takes the information with them.

[ntndeacon]

I am assuming we started with a seer and had one converted after night 1. I think it's time to get some info out there before someone valuable gets night killed and takes the information with them.

In this case do we want them both to reveal? I doubt it will clear all of the villigars but will give us an idea of a few more folks.

[Abe Sargent]

Im fine with lathum's plan - I dont see any real issue there.

[path12]

Wow, still alive. I'm fine with that plan also, even more so if I've been already scanned and cleared.

[claphamsa]

well here is the thing.

There are 10 players left. We can assume the seer can clear 3 players ( unless they scanned someone who is dead). That brings us to 7 uncleared players. Factor in the actual seer that makes 6. I make 5 and Clap makes 4 unknowns.

Factor in Render as a maybe cleared that leaves 3 candidates. Which gives us a 66% chance of hitting someone.



Not that I dont belive you, but you havent been cleared in somes eyes, hell render hasnt either!

[Lathum]

Not that I dont belive you, but you havent been cleared in somes eyes, hell render hasnt either!

well unless somone claims bodyguard I would think I am in pretty good shape.

It's been stated that the bad guys don't know what roles aren't in the game so it would be a pretty unneccesary risk to make this play here as a wolf.

[Barkeep49]

Not that I dont belive you, but you havent been cleared in somes eyes, hell render hasnt either!
While I don't think Lathum's quite right that we can get down to 3 candidates I do think the seer can greatly help us narrow things down. Not hitting a wolf by day 4 almost always means the good guys have lost the game. We need to retard their progress somewhat and having a firm COT gives us that.

[Barkeep49]

It's been stated that the bad guys don't know what roles aren't in the game

Where'd that happen?

[jeheinz72]

Hrm, interesting. Some questions...

- Why protect me on Night One Lathum? Being that I have no role it just seems like an odd move to pick me out of a hat.

- So are we now 2/5th of the way to the Oceans' win-set?

- Are we sure about this seer reveal plan? It seems like we could be muddying waters a bit with it.

[RendeR]

Not that I dont belive you, but you havent been cleared in somes eyes, hell render hasnt either!


Actually I should be pretty well verified here. if there was indeed a GOOD duke still out there and I was a lying wolf they would have duked it to me to ensure a wolf goes down last night.

They didn't because *I* am the good duke. As I've been trying to explain all along.

My only issue with lathum's plan is this: The wolves know who I am, they also know my role has no acting power beyond voting, so I'm not a prime target, they can kill me whenever they choose.

They now know who the BG is, if in fact Lathum IS the BG, I don't see why he would false reveal at this point.

That leaves 1 major good role left, the real seer. If they reveal themselves now and do not have any real beneficial info (If they scanned the dead people only so far for example) then they're in the driver's seat and can win this game prety easily.

I can get behind Lathum's plan IF the seer has some real useful info with wich we can clear at least 2 or 3 people.

[SnDvls]

my only concern is that there is only one seer still.

The one seer was either 1) the arrogant seer and was converted/changed after night 1 and thus only has 2 good scans or possibly 1 if they rescanned their night 1 target or 2) the arrogant seer comment was put there to throw everyone off and we really only have 1 true seer and now we're asking them to out themself.

[RendeR]

Hrm, interesting. Some questions...

- Why protect me on Night One Lathum? Being that I have no role it just seems like an odd move to pick me out of a hat.

- So are we now 2/5th of the way to the Oceans' win-set?

- Are we sure about this seer reveal plan? It seems like we could be muddying waters a bit with it.


Not that I'm feeling warm and fuzzy enough to defend Lathum, but it was night 1, who was more apropriate for him to defend? none of us knew anything so it pretty much had to be a random protection order.

[RendeR]

my only concern is that there is only one seer still.

The one seer was either 1) the arrogant seer and was converted/changed after night 1 and thus only has 2 good scans or possibly 1 if they rescanned their night 1 target or 2) the arrogant seer comment was put there to throw everyone off and we really only have 1 true seer and now we're asking them to out themself.


I agree with you, thats why I qualified my comments that they had to have enough info to make it worthwhile.

If we think we can trust Lathum's reveal (based on what I know and see so far there is no real reason not to) Then we can start with he and I, add Clam, if the seer can clear at least 2 more then I think we can go with this. as that would give us a 5 vote block and pretty much control who gets lynched from here on out.

[RendeR]

Adding the seer would then make it 6, so I suppose even if the seer only has 1 name it could work as well. 2 would be best as that would leave us only 1 in 4 chance of lynching a villager at this point.

[RendeR]

Sorry if I just reitereated everything Lathum said, but I had to write it out and ponder it for myself to be sure I understood it.

At this point I think we should go with it. it gives us our CoT and controls the voting.

[jeheinz72]

Not that I'm feeling warm and fuzzy enough to defend Lathum, but it was night 1, who was more apropriate for him to defend? none of us knew anything so it pretty much had to be a random protection order.

Well admiteddly I've never been a seer, but I'd think that without relevant info game-wise, I"d protect someone who I thought was a good villager or a likely night-kill reputation-wise. I'm surely neither of those.

[Lathum]

Well admiteddly I've never been a seer, but I'd think that without relevant info game-wise, I"d protect someone who I thought was a good villager or a likely night-kill reputation-wise. I'm surely neither of those.

Well like Render said I had no idea about anyones role night 1, plus I was driving for 13 hours that day. I chacked my role early on and sent in that order for 2 reasons.

1. I felt you wouldn't be a likely day 1 lynch, that way if I missed the deadline I wouldn't be wasting my night action.

2. Please don't take this personaly, but I didn't want to guard one of the "usual" suspects because I didn't want the wolves to assume I would guard someone like Barkeep or ChiefRum. I want'd to protect someone more low key hoping the wolves wouldn't wanna risk a night 1 attack on a "vet"

[Lathum]

dola- I also think we can pretty much clear Render now since the real duke would have likely lynched him last night.

[Barkeep49]

dola- I also think we can pretty much clear Render now since the real duke would have likely lynched him last night.
Really? That doesn't make sense. All it suggests it that Render is not the evil duke in a game with two dukes. But I never really believed there were two dukes to begin with.

[Lathum]

Actualy this doesn't clear Render since there is no guarentee of 2 dukes in the game.

[RendeR]

Oh for fucks sake you two, get off it.

[Lathum]

just stating a fact.

[RendeR]

I AM NOT THE "EVIL" DUKE < MOVE THE HELL ALONG .

[RendeR]

Sorry, but Lathum, you're a real ass when you play, no matter the situation you make up your mind and lock your jaws until a villager is killed to satisfy your mental fucking state.

You're both WRONG, AGAIN. Please let go of this ignorant fucking theory and get on with trying to actually win the ame, if you waste yet ANOTHER day trying to lynch me then you're sealing this game for the wolves. Its stupid.

[Telle]

I AM NOT THE "EVIL" DUKE YOU STUBBORN FUCKING MULES< MOVE THE HELL ALONG AND DO SOMETHING USEFUL FOR A CHANGE.

Getting a bit sensitive? :)

I only pointed out the possibility of you being the wolf duke because I felt that it would be a mistake putting you into the 100% trusted category for being the duke when there exists the possibility of a wolf duke. But as far as I'm concerned, that just means that you're not any more cleared than the rest of us.

[ntndeacon]

At the very least we should be looking at uncleared folks.

[ntndeacon]

and to that end...

I am the seer.

[Telle]

Original or previously-arrogant?

[ntndeacon]

On night one, I looked at Chief Rum and got a weird result. rogue. I assume that is the event that changed me from arrogant seer to seer. I have not found a wolf. I can clear two people though....NIght 2 I looked at Barkeep. Night 3 I looked at Telle. both are villagers

[Telle]

Sweet. Now we have a definite CoT of three.. and possibly up to six if the other three reveals can be trusted.

[Lathum]

Render, you need to calm down. You are aproaching Blade status and he almost ruined Werewolf for all of us because he turned so many people off with the same piss poor attitude you have.

I'm sorry you take it so personaly when I point out facts or theories about you that you don't agree with, but if you don't realize thats the nature of the game then maybe you need to take some time off from playing.

[RendeR]

Getting a bit sensitive? :)

I only pointed out the possibility of you being the wolf duke because I felt that it would be a mistake putting you into the 100% trusted category for being the duke when there exists the possibility of a wolf duke. But as far as I'm concerned, that just means that you're not any more cleared than the rest of us.


I think its more the fact that the chance of having an EVIL duke without a GOOD one is pretty much non existant. it would give the wolves an unfair advantage. So there lies the real rub in this. These two are clinging to this theory that the only duke in this game is the bad one, which just doesn't make ANY sense.

If there is an evil there MUST be a good one, though if there is a good there doesn't HAVE to be a bad one, the EVIL duke is the rare item in this whole scenario, but instead of realizing that they assume the most improbably case is actually true.

It gets tiring watching Lathum knaw on random theories with no basis beyond his gut feeling and worse seeing BK line up like a prize sheep and follow along. its been shown that BK's stubbornness gets villagers killed in the past, why should his judgement be trusted in ANY form in this situation?

I've given just as equally valid and plausible reasons for what I did, but who does everyone trust? Lathum. Why? he knows nothing more than I do at this point. Why are we blindly trusting his argument?

THINK people. for christs sake already.

[claphamsa]

On night one, I looked at Chief Rum and got a weird result. rogue. I assume that is the event that changed me from arrogant seer to seer. I have not found a wolf. I can clear two people though....NIght 2 I looked at Barkeep. Night 3 I looked at Telle. both are villagers


you just tore down my world :(

[jeheinz72]

Barkeep49 - NTN cleared as villager
Claphamsa - Likely cleared as veteran
jeheinz72
RendeR - Likely cleared as Duke
Telle - NTN cleared as villager
SnDvls
Path12
ntndeacon - Likely cleared as Seer
Anxiety
Lathum - Likely cleared as BG

I know I have little to prove it with, but I'm a villager folks. Anxiety, Path and SnDvls, thems your wolves

Vote Anxiety

Time to bring this one home and cut the crap.

[Telle]

Now see, I've pretty much assumed that PurdueBrad picked which rolls were in the game randomly. So I don't think that you can be certain that there wouldn't be an evil duke without a good duke.

[ntndeacon]

and by the way there is no other seer. we started the game with only me as an arrogant seer.

[claphamsa]

Render, you need to calm down. You are aproaching Blade status and he almost ruined Werewolf for all of us because he turned so many people off with the same piss poor attitude you have.

I'm sorry you take it so personaly when I point out facts or theories about you that you don't agree with, but if you don't realize thats the nature of the game then maybe you need to take some time off from playing.


I agree, breathe deep man, I also a=gree with him that this vendeta is idiotic, there is no reason to think hes a bad duke other than a poor choice of a defelction! we need to get the bad guys not fight!

[jeheinz72]

I can understand where RendeR is coming from. He duked, he tried to get a baddie and missed. It happens. I frankly think the fact that the real duke didn't come out and flip it to RendeR is a very strong case that RendeR is the good duke himself. It at the *very least* outweighs the conveluted argument that there must be a Bad Duke and no Good Duke.

[claphamsa]

and by the way there is no other seer. we started the game with only me as an arrogant seer.
how do you know?

[Lathum]

I can understand where RendeR is coming from. He duked, he tried to get a baddie and missed. It happens. I frankly think the fact that the real duke didn't come out and flip it to RendeR is a very strong case that RendeR is the good duke himself. It at the *very least* outweighs the conveluted argument that there must be a Bad Duke and no Good Duke.

Weather or not you agree there is a second duke is irrelavent. The possibility exists and IMO we need to consider it a possibility.

My point is Render can disagree all he wants to with me and BK, but there is a correct and civil way to do it. Dropping the F bomb and calling people mules is not the correct way to do it.

[RendeR]

Render, you need to calm down. You are aproaching Blade status and he almost ruined Werewolf for all of us because he turned so many people off with the same piss poor attitude you have.

I'm sorry you take it so personaly when I point out facts or theories about you that you don't agree with, but if you don't realize thats the nature of the game then maybe you need to take some time off from playing.


You're not pointing out facts, you're point out YOUR OPINION.

The Only fact in this is that the rules allow for an evil duke to exist. it ALSO allows for the normal duke to exist.

Thats the ONLY fact. So its a 50/50 guess you have going. At least have the integrity to admit you have NOTHING on me besides a 50/50 split.

I'm sick to death of you touting your opinions as "fact". You hounded me yesterday and pushed your OPINION as fact all day.

Can you honestly sit there and expect us all to believe there is ONLY an evil duke in this game? Go back through the games and count up how many times the Wolves have had such a HUGE advantage. I've gone through 14 thus far and found...GASP!...none.

It makes FAR more sense that if there is only one duke that its the good side. And if there are two I'd already be dead. So where does that leave your theory?

As for your comment about me acting like someone else, perhaps its YOU that should look in the mirror and say, "Gee why do I piss people off so regularly?" perhaps YOU need a break.

[ntndeacon]

I know there is no other seer, because I was told this, by the voices in my head that clears us all. (i.e. our beloved leader Brad)

[Lathum]

as far as I know you are the only one I have "pissed off" and you are the one slinging insults, not me.

And it is a fact that it is possible there could only be 1 duke in the game

[claphamsa]

bit that i subscibe to this but do we believe NTN? it could be a ply by the wolves....

[claphamsa]

I know there is no other seer, because I was told this, by the voices in my head that clears us all. (i.e. our beloved leader Brad)
good reason!~

[Telle]

bit that i subscibe to this but do we believe NTN? it could be a ply by the wolves....

Well he got me right :) And we KNOW that there is a previously-arrogant seer in the game.. and so there would be a counter reveal if he was lying.

[jeheinz72]

Weather or not you agree there is a second duke is irrelavent. The possibility exists and IMO we need to consider it a possibility.

My point is Render can disagree all he wants to with me and BK, but there is a correct and civil way to do it. Dropping the F bomb and calling people mules is not the correct way to do it.

I don't agree with you on the duke-issue, but I do agree civility is preffered. With that said, I think all this talk is getting us WAY off-topic and we should focus on this new list provided by NTN.

Wouldn't you agree that we're MUCH MUCH more likely to find a wolf in the non-cleared folks there than we are on this 1-duke hunch?

[jeheinz72]

Well he got me right :) And we KNOW that there is a previously-arrogant seer in the game.. and so there would be a counter reveal if he was lying.

Exactly and I'd encourage any counter-reveal to happen, since we should be able to get us to such a small list anyhow (and peg a wolf) that even if he dies we should be ok.

[Lathum]

Wouldn't you agree that we're MUCH MUCH more likely to find a wolf in the non-cleared folks there than we are on this 1-duke hunch?

of course

[ntndeacon]

I don't have a preference on the ones left really. So here goes a pretty much stab in the dark.

Vote SnDvls

[Lathum]

I say sndvls or Path.

Vote SNDVLS

[jeheinz72]

of course

So then let's just drop it for now and vote out one of the folks on the new list.

[RendeR]

I apologize to everyone,(yes even YOU lathum) I'm extremely tired, my children are sick and I'm getting there too and frankly sitting hear reading continuous BS accusations with nothing to support it really pissed me off this morning.

I think my main beef is the fact that when you consider everything, 9 times out of ten the most obvious answer is right, but instead of being right 90% lathum choose the underdog choice damn near every time, and that frustrates the shit out of me because it wastes entire days of game time as he pushes his opinion and comes up empty.


And what makes that 10x worse is that most of the regulars will defer to his opinion on most occasions rather than question him. Which simply compounds an already bad situation.

I'm gonna log off for now. I thank those that at last posted that they understood what I've been trying to say all along. its good to know not everyone sniffs an idea and decides its gospel without given credibility to other EQUALLY plausible possibilities.

[ntndeacon]

Exactly and I'd encourage any counter-reveal to happen, since we should be able to get us to such a small list anyhow (and peg a wolf) that even if he dies we should be ok.

Actually I was hoping a wolf would be silly enough to try to reveal first, I almost waited to reveal til this evening giving them plenty of time, if I had seen someone claim to be seer, they woulda had my vote.

[RendeR]

as far as I know you are the only one I have "pissed off" and you are the one slinging insults, not me.

And it is a fact that it is possible there could only be 1 duke in the game


I want you to admit you have nothing to go on but your personal choice. Why can't you at least be that honest?

[jeheinz72]

Unvote Anxiety
Vote SnDvls

I had only voted Anx off that list, I have no preference.

[RendeR]

I'll come back later on once I get settled in at work.


VOTE SNDVLS

[Telle]

I don't have a preference on the ones left really. So here goes a pretty much stab in the dark.

Vote SnDvls

I'll follow suit since I think we need to vote in a block.

VOTE SNDVLS

[path12]

It's been stated that the bad guys don't know what roles aren't in the game so it would be a pretty unneccesary risk to make this play here as a wolf.

Where was that stated? I must have missed that.

[Lathum]

Apology accepted.

I know just as much as anyone that it is frustrating when someone has a theory about you and goes after you like a pitbull. CR does it to me all the time.

When I have a theory, even if it's a longshot I persue it. Wheater others choose to follow is out of my control. Unfortuanatly you need to break some eggs to make an omlette in this game and it sucks when you are the egg.

I will admit that lately it seems Render has been on the other end of some of my theories, it really isn't personal, just a coincidence.

[SnDvls]

vote no lynch :D

boy that was a big pile on
I guess I'll be the sacrafice if it helps the village win.

time to sign up for pass's game now.

[Lathum]

Where was that stated? I must have missed that.

i saw it somewhere. I'll have to go back and look

[Lathum]

I want you to admit you have nothing to go on but your personal choice. Why can't you at least be that honest?

I'm not sure I understand the question.

[Telle]

i saw it somewhere. I'll have to go back and look

Yes, please provide a quote and post # ..because I'm pretty sure this WASN'T stated.

[PurdueBrad]

Current vote tally (as of 632)-

SnDvls- ntnDeacon (620), Lathum (621), Heinz (626), RendeR (627), Telle (628)

no lynch- SnDvls (631)

Still to vote: Path 12, Anxiety, Claphamsa, Barkeep49

[path12]

Actually I was hoping a wolf would be silly enough to try to reveal first, I almost waited to reveal til this evening giving them plenty of time, if I had seen someone claim to be seer, they woulda had my vote.

Well, I don't know if you are a wolf claiming arrogant seer, but you are absolutely lying if you claim there is only one........because I am the seer, and I have not been told anything about whether or not there is another.

My scans so far:

Night 1: Chief Rum, rogue. He is always someone I want to verify as soon as possible.
Night 2: claphamsa, villager. I was really thinking he was bad (hence my vote). I was wrong.
Night 3: Render, villager. Since he was the other candidate yesterday besides myself I figured he needed to be checked.

So there we have it. I know that ntn has lied about one thing in particular, so that's enough for my vote right now:

VOTE NTNDEACON

[path12]

Dola, I've got some work stuff to take care of, but will be back in a bit to answer any questions.

[jeheinz72]

hooboy.

[PurdueBrad]

Current vote tally (as of 638)-

SnDvls (5)- ntnDeacon (620), Lathum (621), Heinz (626), RendeR (627), Telle (628)
ntnDeacon (1)- Path12 (636)

no lynch- SnDvls (631)

Still to vote: Anxiety, Claphamsa, Barkeep49

[Telle]

Gah.

[ntndeacon]

so path you have been a seer all along? is this what you are saying?

[claphamsa]

I think I am overly involoved. I instently belive path rather than NTN (ntn cleared top suspects for me!)

[Lathum]

as expected

[claphamsa]

I also didnt buy the bit about ntn saying that he was todl he was the only seer. sounds fishy and would be a moajor error by PB.

[Telle]

ntn.. WHEN were you told that the only seer? When you were arrogant or after your "transformation"?

[Lathum]

OK, I stand correct about the bad guys knowing what roles are in the game.

I mistook this post and the following discussion.

The rules state that not all roles are necessarily in the game. If the wolves were told which roles are in the game, they could confidently fake-reveal as any of the untaken villager roles if they felt the need.


Brad- Can you tell us if the bad guys have knowledge of what roles are omitted?

[Lathum]

What does NTNDeacon have to gain by fake revealing?

[PurdueBrad]

Lathum:

The wolves do not know which roles have been omitted from the game.

[Telle]

And I reiterate that we KNOW that there is a previously-arrogant seer in this game. Unless another one pipes up, I'm inclined to believe NTN.

[Telle]

Lathum:

The wolves do not know which roles have been omitted from the game.

Wow.. I didn't expect an answer on that. Ok, that gives me a little more faith on Lathum, clap, and RendeR.

[Lathum]

I need a beer

[jeheinz72]

Well I'd say fake-reveal or not, we vote out SnDvls on this basis

1. He's not cleared on any type of list, fake or not (of course myself and Anxiety aren't cleared on any list either)
2. It's possible one is our seer and one is the arrogant-turned-seer

I'd say we lynch SnDvls, and have one of them scan me and one of them scan Anxiety. I know I'm clean so whoever scans me will get Villager.

[Barkeep49]

There are times when I wish, as GM, that I were not in a game as a player. This is one of those times.

There is a difference of criticizing a person's theory and criticizing a person. Calling someone a “fucking XXXX” is always over that line. Thinking someone is a bad guy is ALWAYS alright. It is stupid sometimes, but it is always a completely acceptable thing to post. That’s the game.

There was a series of games where I was constantly being accused of being a wolf in the early days because of “suspicious” activity. It was absolutely infuriating and was sucking the fun out of the game for me. My choices were to either stop playing or deal with it. I’ve mostly learned to deal with it. I have a great deal of empathy and sympathy for a person getting upset over being falsely accused, and even being falsely accused repeatedly. However, if you are finding that you cannot deal with that, then it’s time to take a break. Having had a mini-break myself (due to a series of early deaths and Thanksgiving) I can tell you that it really helps to revitalize your interest in the game.

And sometimes just taking a step back from the game, as Render seems to have done with his apology, can be enough to get you over your anger and allow you to resume playing. But that’s what we do here: play. Don’t interfere with that.

~Barkeep49, YFWWM

[Barkeep49]

Wow.. I didn't expect an answer on that. Ok, that gives me a little more faith on Lathum, clap, and RendeR.
Why Render?

My COT is:
NTN
Lathum
Telle
Clap
Me

[Telle]

Why Render?

My COT is:
NTN
Lathum
Telle
Clap
Me

Because if RendeR is the wolf-duke, it would be risky to play his duke ability and thus claim the role of villager-duke without knowing whether or not there was a villager-duke.

[path12]

so path you have been a seer all along? is this what you are saying?

Yep.

[Lathum]

OK, lets work off 2 lists here.

NTN's list

Barkeep49- cleared night 2
Telle- cleared night 3
RendeR- duke ( claims good duke, claim not countered)
Claphamsa- claimes veteren ( claim not countered)
Lathum- claims bodyguard ( claim not countered)
ntndeacon- claims arrogant seer

so we are left with:

jeheinz72
SnDvls
Path12
Anxiety


Path's list


RendeR- duke ( claims good duke, claim not countered), scanned by Path
Claphamsa- claimes veteren ( claim not countered), scanned by path
Lathum- claims bodyguard ( claim not countered)
Path12- Claims original seer

so we are left with:

sndvls
ntndeacon
telle
barkeep
jheinze
anxiety


Now the interesting thing to me about Path's list is it really does us no good. He has 1 player who is dead and 2 who have revealed roles that haven't been countered.

[path12]

Now the interesting thing to me about Path's list is it really does us no good. He has 1 player who is dead and 2 who have revealed roles that haven't been countered.

Well, I really can't help that. I think my choices have been sound, I just haven't gotten any useful results yet.

As far as NTN goes, I don't know if he's the arrogant seer or not. All I know is that he said there wasn't any other seer, and that is not true, hence my vote.

[Barkeep49]

I think path's list is fake. I think ntn's information is more likely to be good. I do NOT think his scans have been sound as he's only been verifying role reveals.

vote path

[Lathum]

I agree with barkeep

Unvote sndvls
vote Path

[Barkeep49]

path I just looked over youd d2 posts. I can find no hint or indication that you knew CR was rogue, a potentially dangerous role to the village. Am I missing something? This lack of a hint about the knowledge of a nonvillager suggests to me that your claim is BS.

[ntndeacon]

Unvote SnDvls
Vote Path
I was just waiting for Path to confirm he was the seer. Does everyone notice who his "night one scan" was. he claims as a SEER that he saw Rum was a rogue. THis is not possible by the rules. It was because I recieved this result that I figured I had to be arrogant seer.

[ntndeacon]

as a Seer, he would have seen Rum as a villager.

[Barkeep49]

I think path's list is fake. I think ntn's information is more likely to be good. I do NOT think his scans have been sound as he's only been verifying role reveals.

vote path
While Lathum seems to have gotten the message I don't think I explained this well.

I actually buy that CR is a valid D1 scan. Of course I'd have liked, as I posted in 661, that path hint at the knowledge of him being a rogue D2. Doesn't happen.

Then path chooses, the next two nights, to scan people who gave uncontested role reveals. What is gained by that, long run. I see clap as a possibility, but once that was confirmed I don't see why he'd perform the same mistake a second night. Even better, I don't see why he wouldn't scan Render whose role reveal was VERY much contested. If he's going to scan people with reveals, why not scan the guy whose reveal has caused controversy?

His story doesn't add up. NTN revealed first and his reveal is incompatiable with paths. I tend to give favor to the person who reveals first, but in this case there is nothing to suggest that path's counter reveal makes more sense than ntn's reveal. Hence my vote on path, who as I said yesterday, has seemed to be off all game.

[Barkeep49]

as a Seer, he would have seen Rum as a villager.
Good point. The rules are explicit that he'd be a simple villager. Not the confusing scan path stated. The lies compound.

[Telle]

Seer: You have the ability to see into others' souls. You, through nightly scans, have the ability to determine whether a character is a wolf or villager. You cannot, however, discover the identity of the rogue through a scan. They will appear to you as a simple villager.


UNVOTE SNDVLS
VOTE PATH

[Lathum]

as a Seer, he would have seen Rum as a villager.

nice catch

[ntndeacon]

nice catch

Thanks. That is why I needed Path to state he was a seer all along. I knew that his claim was bogus, but needed that bit of proof to make it clear to any doubters.

[path12]

path I just looked over youd d2 posts. I can find no hint or indication that you knew CR was rogue, a potentially dangerous role to the village. Am I missing something? This lack of a hint about the knowledge of a nonvillager suggests to me that your claim is BS.

There was plenty of time to out the rogue later, I wasn't going to come out on day 2 with any hints that might have gotten me killed. I was and am more concerned with trying to find wolves, though obviously y'all don't want to believe that until you kill me off.

Which is really weird, by the way. If you wonder about me and believe ntn, have him scan me tonight and if I'm lying lynch me tomorrow. This way you just kill a seer.

I don't have much of a defense other than the truth. I would have revealed last night but was gone more than 3 hours before deadline, and I didn't want to a) reveal that early, and b) reveal and then not be around to answer the questions that would result.

As for the question about my scan of Chief, I went back and without directly quoting the result was along the lines of 'you sense an air of uncertainty about him and don't know which side he might be on'. I thought that was pretty clear it was the rogue, which of course was confirmed the next night.

[path12]

Seer: You have the ability to see into others' souls. You, through nightly scans, have the ability to determine whether a character is a wolf or villager. You cannot, however, discover the identity of the rogue through a scan. They will appear to you as a simple villager.

I don't know what to say about this. All I know is that the PM I received said what I mentioned earlier. If it conflicts with this rule and there was an error made then so be it, but it was clear to me Chief was NOT a simple villager.

[PurdueBrad]

Wow.. I didn't expect an answer on that. Ok, that gives me a little more faith on Lathum, clap, and RendeR.


Telle, I would direct you to re-read my original statement a bit closer as it does not necessarily state that the wolves have no knowledge about roles, they just did not receive a list of which roles are not in the game. They may/may not have some other information through either initial instruction or eventual game dynamic.

[path12]

Even better, I don't see why he wouldn't scan Render whose role reveal was VERY much contested. If he's going to scan people with reveals, why not scan the guy whose reveal has caused controversy?

I did scan Render last night. Why would you misrepresent what I said?

[Telle]

Telle, I would direct you to re-read my original statement a bit closer as it does not necessarily state that the wolves have no knowledge about roles, they just did not receive a list of which roles are not in the game. They may/may not have some other information through either initial instruction or eventual game dynamic.

Ok, now I'm just confused.

[PurdueBrad]

Current vote tally (as of 673)-

Path12 (4)- Barkeep49 (659), Lathum (660), ntndeacon (662), Telle (666)
SnDvls (2)- jeheinz72 (626), RendeR (627)
ntnDeacon (1)- Path12 (636)
no lynch (1)- SnDvls (631)

Still to vote: Anxiety, Claphamsa

[jeheinz72]

I see no reason not to switch, that rogue issue seems fishy.

Unvote SnDvls
Vote Path12

[claphamsa]

Well I havent voted becasue Im confused as to which one to belive!

I tend to agree more with PATH but......

NTN sounds more reasonable.

[Lathum]

Clap- can you give a reason why you agree with Path?

[claphamsa]

Clap- can you give a reason why you agree with Path?

I said Tend, I WANT to agree with PATH. but.... it just doesnt seem logical.... I dunno. Ill keep listending!

[Telle]

Clap- can you give a reason why you agree with Path?

He's been convinced since Day 1 that Barkeep is bad.. and NTN cleared Barkeep.

And path cleared Clap.. and we all tend to like the person who clears us :)

[Lathum]

well then why do you want to agree with him?

[PurdueBrad]

Current vote tally (as of 678)-

Path12 (4)- Barkeep49 (659), Lathum (660), ntndeacon (662), Telle (666), jeheinz72 (675)
SnDvls (1)- RendeR (627)
ntnDeacon (1)- Path12 (636)
no lynch (1)- SnDvls (631)

Still to vote: Anxiety, Claphamsa

[claphamsa]

well then why do you want to agree with him?

im still convince BK is bad :)

[path12]

well then why do you want to agree with him?

Maybe because I'm telling the truth?

[path12]

He's been convinced since Day 1 that Barkeep is bad.. and NTN cleared Barkeep.

And path cleared Clap.. and we all tend to like the person who clears us :)

You know, it's very possible that ntn is the arrogant seer as well, I have no knowledge one way or the other about that. Maybe the message he got about being the only one was a random result as he became aware of his ability, I don't know.

But think about it. A second reveal is oftentimes fake and rarely gets popular support. Knowing that, why the hell do I fake reveal when I've got no heat on me today and the votes are on SnDvls?

If you can answer me that one, then I'll accept your vote for me. Otherwise you're just grasping at straws.

[Lathum]

Path- I was asking myself the same question about why you would reveal today. But IMO you are the best option based on your alleged scan of ChiefRum

[path12]

Path- I was asking myself the same question about why you would reveal today. But IMO you are the best option based on your alleged scan of ChiefRum

And I can't explain that one. I think Brad forgot what he had in the role description, but of course we'll have to wait until after you lynch me to realize that.

I would argue though that that doesn't make me the best option to lynch today. It does make me the best option for ntn to scan tonight.

[Lathum]

And I can't explain that one. I think Brad forgot what he had in the role description, but of course we'll have to wait until after you lynch me to realize that.

I would argue though that that doesn't make me the best option to lynch today. It does make me the best option for ntn to scan tonight.

unless you kill him tonight

[RendeR]

Point: ntn said his PM TOLD him he was the ONLY seer.
Point: Definition of Arrogant: Assuming one is superior or the only one capable
Point: There is a role named ARROGANT seer.
Point: Its a terrible move to be the second one to reveal as anything as no one will believe you without some real heavy evidence
Point: Path12 is, IMO, not one who is going to make a bad percentage play

So I believe NTN's scans are random results
I believe path12's scans are probably correct


I'm still voting for SnDvls. There is no reason to vote off the arrogant seer, no matter which player it is, as the arrogant seer is a VILLAGER.

[jeheinz72]

I am so twisted around right now I have no idea what I'm thinking.

[Barkeep49]

Render: Are you suggesting that path was the arrogant seer who was converted publicly?

[RendeR]

Render: Are you suggesting that path was the arrogant seer who was converted publicly?


no, ntn is, based on the wording of what he said his PM said.

[RendeR]

And again, its stupid to vote off either one, they're BOTH villager roles. Better to go after those we already had our list narrowed down to.

[claphamsa]

Point: ntn said his PM TOLD him he was the ONLY seer.
Point: Definition of Arrogant: Assuming one is superior or the only one capable
Point: There is a role named ARROGANT seer.
Point: Its a terrible move to be the second one to reveal as anything as no one will believe you without some real heavy evidence
Point: Path12 is, IMO, not one who is going to make a bad percentage play

So I believe NTN's scans are random results
I believe path12's scans are probably correct


I'm still voting for SnDvls. There is no reason to vote off the arrogant seer, no matter which player it is, as the arrogant seer is a VILLAGER.
I agree with you, but what if one is a wolf!

[Barkeep49]

Ahh I got it now, in that you think they're both good.

So what's your thought about path claiming to have had a foggy result with his CR scan when the rules state:

You cannot, however, discover the identity of the rogue through a scan. They will appear to you as a simple villager.

Doesn't that explicitly rule out even a hint being given in the PM?

[SnDvls]

umm...that sure changed quickly didn't it

[RendeR]

Ahh I got it now, in that you think they're both good.

So what's your thought about path claiming to have had a foggy result with his CR scan when the rules state:



Doesn't that explicitly rule out even a hint being given in the PM?


It certainly could, good point. IF path12 is lying and its a fake reveal only the real seer could refute him. Which realy hasn't happened yet.

I believe from the wording of ntn's comments that he is the arrogant seer.

So its something to consider, however, its not a reason to vote him off right now. We have a fairly solid CoT overall and SnDvls is not in either grouping (based on supposed seer scans) So I'm thinking:

A ) Path12 is the real seer and we can trust him, we should lynch one of those uknown players, SnDvls was our first pick, lets roll with that.

or

B ) Path12 is fake revealing in order to pull votes off od SnDvls because he's a more important wolf and to sow confusion, STILL we ought to stick with lynching one of the unknown players, SnDvls was our first pick, lets roll with that.


Either way, there is no good reason in my mind to jump ship onto path12 right now.

[ntndeacon]

You know, it's very possible that ntn is the arrogant seer as well, I have no knowledge one way or the other about that. Maybe the message he got about being the only one was a random result as he became aware of his ability, I don't know.

But think about it. A second reveal is oftentimes fake and rarely gets popular support. Knowing that, why the hell do I fake reveal when I've got no heat on me today and the votes are on SnDvls?

If you can answer me that one, then I'll accept your vote for me. Otherwise you're just grasping at straws.

I will take a swing at this.

with ten left and 3 cleared through my efforts brings the total to 7. If also those that have claimed to be something are what they claim, then Render, Lathum, and one other (was it clap?) are villagers. bringing the # of possible wolves down to 4. In this scenario the wolves are all in that group of uncleared. after today there would be 8, the next day 6, the next day 4. You need one of those voted for to be a villager. Also I have a sneaking suspicion Iknow which wolf you are. There is only one wolf that really benifits from pulling that ploy besides just causing the havok you have caused....
The Brutal Wolf.
Granted I do not know that is in play, but iwould not at all be surprised if it is. Ithink it is pretty much suspected nowadays.

[claphamsa]

It certainly could, good point. IF path12 is lying and its a fake reveal only the real seer could refute him. Which realy hasn't happened yet.

I believe from the wording of ntn's comments that he is the arrogant seer.

So its something to consider, however, its not a reason to vote him off right now. We have a fairly solid CoT overall and SnDvls is not in either grouping (based on supposed seer scans) So I'm thinking:

A ) Path12 is the real seer and we can trust him, we should lynch one of those uknown players, SnDvls was our first pick, lets roll with that.

or

B ) Path12 is fake revealing in order to pull votes off od SnDvls because he's a more important wolf and to sow confusion, STILL we ought to stick with lynching one of the unknown players, SnDvls was our first pick, lets roll with that.


Either way, there is no good reason in my mind to jump ship onto path12 right now.


good logic, what if they are both seers and neither is arogatn? (there was one converted to a nromal seer.

vot sundevil

[ntndeacon]

off to class will be back in a bit to continue the discussion.

[PurdueBrad]

Current vote tally (as of 700)-

Path12 (5)- Barkeep49 (659), Lathum (660), ntndeacon (662), Telle (666), jeheinz72 (675)
SnDvls (2)- RendeR (627), Claphamsa (698)
ntnDeacon (1)- Path12 (636)
no lynch (1)- SnDvls (631)

Still to vote: Anxiety

[SnDvls]

PB - I don't know if my "no lynch" is even an option I just threw it out there...if you need me to vote for someone I can so it doesn't mess up your game dynamics

[RendeR]

good logic, what if they are both seers and neither is arogatn? (there was one converted to a nromal seer.

vot sundevil


If they're both real seers now through conversion al the more reason NOT to vote them out.

I do find ntn's comments intriguing however. That would be a very good move by the Brutal wolf, knowing that he could well be lynched he might as well take someone with him.

[PurdueBrad]

PB - I don't know if my "no lynch" is even an option I just threw it out there...if you need me to vote for someone I can so it doesn't mess up your game dynamics

No lynch is an available option (honestly because that is one dynamic I did not account for) so you may leave your vote there as you wish.

[Lathum]

Unvote Path
vote Sndvls

I think path may be pulling this play as the brutal wolf.

If he is then he kills me at the lynch and they have a free shot at NTN tonight.

[path12]

unless you kill him tonight

I think it would be assumed by the wolves that either ntn or myself will be guarded tonight, more likely ntn. I don't have the ability to kill anyone.

[path12]

bringing the # of possible wolves down to 4. In this scenario the wolves are all in that group of uncleared. after today there would be 8, the next day 6, the next day 4. You need one of those voted for to be a villager. Also I have a sneaking suspicion Iknow which wolf you are. There is only one wolf that really benifits from pulling that ploy besides just causing the havok you have caused....
The Brutal Wolf.
Granted I do not know that is in play, but iwould not at all be surprised if it is. Ithink it is pretty much suspected nowadays.

OK, that would be an argument I can understand. It's wrong, but I can see the logic behind it, though if that's the case the wolves are done for anyway.

But even so, wouldn't the better percentage play be to have you scan me tonight rather than risk me being the brutal wolf?

[path12]

I do find ntn's comments intriguing however. That would be a very good move by the Brutal wolf, knowing that he could well be lynched he might as well take someone with him.

I'd expect the brutal wolf to not argue too much against being lynched in that position though.

[PurdueBrad]

Current vote tally (as of 707)-

Path12 (4)- Barkeep49 (659), ntndeacon (662), Telle (666), jeheinz72 (675)
SnDvls (3)- RendeR (627), Claphamsa (698), Lathum (704)
ntnDeacon (1)- Path12 (636)
no lynch (1)- SnDvls (631)

Still to vote: Anxiety

[ntndeacon]

OK, that would be an argument I can understand. It's wrong, but I can see the logic behind it, though if that's the case the wolves are done for anyway.

But even so, wouldn't the better percentage play be to have you scan me tonight rather than risk me being the brutal wolf?

I don't think so. It scares me that you are the brutal wolf, I am convinced you are a wolf however. The earlier SnDvls vote was more a guess based on the 4 remaining that Ihad a good chance of being right. Besides I am following the Render Rules. Dont trust a known wolf.

[RendeR]

I'd expect the brutal wolf to not argue too much against being lynched in that position though.


No I'd expect just enough arguing so it doesn't look like you're letting yourself be lynched.


But the smater play is to scan you after we lynch SnDvls.

[ntndeacon]

I will say that I am VERY anti tie today. (I wasn't as adamant prior to this.)

[ntndeacon]

No I'd expect just enough arguing so it doesn't look like you're letting yourself be lynched.


But the smater play is to scan you after we lynch SnDvls.

I disagree. Because I am not planning to scan path. I have already shown him to be the wolf he is. So I feel that is a wasted scan. I will be scanning one of the other uncleared regardless of who is lynched. My conditional orders are in.

[Abe Sargent]

Morning all. Another late night at Guild Wars led to another late rising. Let me get caught up real quick

[Barkeep49]

PB: I have a question about items. Will you accept conditional orders? If so, how conditional? So could I, for instance say "Use item X if Path is lynched and brutal wolfs Lathum?"

[Abe Sargent]

I think its more the fact that the chance of having an EVIL duke without a GOOD one is pretty much non existant. it would give the wolves an unfair advantage. So there lies the real rub in this. These two are clinging to this theory that the only duke in this game is the bad one, which just doesn't make ANY sense.

If there is an evil there MUST be a good one, though if there is a good there doesn't HAVE to be a bad one, the EVIL duke is the rare item in this whole scenario, but instead of realizing that they assume the most improbably case is actually true.

It gets tiring watching Lathum knaw on random theories with no basis beyond his gut feeling and worse seeing BK line up like a prize sheep and follow along. its been shown that BK's stubbornness gets villagers killed in the past, why should his judgement be trusted in ANY form in this situation?

I've given just as equally valid and plausible reasons for what I did, but who does everyone trust? Lathum. Why? he knows nothing more than I do at this point. Why are we blindly trusting his argument?

THINK people. for christs sake already.

Remember we don't know what roles are out there. Double seer for the village means an evil dukle with no good duke is a pretty good chance of existing.

[Abe Sargent]

as a Seer, he would have seen Rum as a villager.

nice. Talk about your bad role reveals.

Vote path

[Abe Sargent]

And I can't explain that one. I think Brad forgot what he had in the role description, but of course we'll have to wait until after you lynch me to realize that.

I would argue though that that doesn't make me the best option to lynch today. It does make me the best option for ntn to scan tonight.

Disagree. If PB had screwed up, he would have made a post here, like he did with Lathum's pm description in public. Without failing to hear from him sayingm he screwed up, I don;t buy it for a second.

[PurdueBrad]

PB: I have a question about items. Will you accept conditional orders? If so, how conditional? So could I, for instance say "Use item X if Path is lynched and brutal wolfs Lathum?"

I will accept the up to the point of:

If so-and-so is lynched, then I will _______

so not really to that next prediction step of:

If so and so is lynched AND such and such happens, then I will ______

So for your example no, however you could certainly say, "if player A is lynched then I would like to use X."

[Abe Sargent]

I'd prefer we vote for the one who is lying and we caught, than anything else. A bird in the hand and all that.

[PurdueBrad]

Current vote tally (as of 719)-

Path12 (5)- Barkeep49 (659), ntndeacon (662), Telle (666), jeheinz72 (675), Anxiety (716)
SnDvls (3)- RendeR (627), Claphamsa (698), Lathum (704)
ntnDeacon (1)- Path12 (636)
no lynch (1)- SnDvls (631)

[RendeR]

I disagree. Because I am not planning to scan path. I have already shown him to be the wolf he is. So I feel that is a wasted scan. I will be scanning one of the other uncleared regardless of who is lynched. My conditional orders are in.


Hrm, am i right in assuming scans are not revealing specific roles, just generic villager/wolf?

Then I suppose it doesn't matter. I'd still recommend lynching someone other than path since as you say, he's already nailed, lets find another one and leave path to languish until the others are dead. If he turns out to be the Brutal Wolf, we safe a dead villager until last.

[RendeR]

I was thinking a scan would tel us which wolf he was, but I don't believe it will upon rethinking it.

[ntndeacon]

Hrm, am i right in assuming scans are not revealing specific roles, just generic villager/wolf?

Then I suppose it doesn't matter. I'd still recommend lynching someone other than path since as you say, he's already nailed, lets find another one and leave path to languish until the others are dead. If he turns out to be the Brutal Wolf, we safe a dead villager until last.

I get just villager/wolf. not any other roles

[jeheinz72]

I think right now I'm believing NTN and not so much path.

My vote is stickin' where it is I'm thinkin'

[path12]

I have already shown him to be the wolf he is.

No you haven't. You've made an assumption and a big leap, based on an incident I had no control over and is likely a mistake by the GM. The only thing you can show me as is a seer.

[path12]

Disagree. If PB had screwed up, he would have made a post here, like he did with Lathum's pm description in public. Without failing to hear from him sayingm he screwed up, I don;t buy it for a second.

Well, think what you want then and lynch a seer. For the record, I PM'd Brad to ask him what happened and if he could clarify in thread. His reply was that although a mistake was made it is now part of the game situation and as such he did not feel it proper to intervene.

I disagree with that, for the record, but it is his game and he is free to run it as he wishes. It is a decision, however, that will get us through four days without nailing a wolf as it stands now, and I imagine the bad guys are very happy about that.

[path12]

Not that it matters, but:

UNVOTE NTNDEACON
VOTE SNDVLS

Self preservation and all.

[SnDvls]

Randomness-

There is a random element to certain actions, reveals, and game mechanics. This will be done via dice roll.





I wonder what random event will happen with the seer(s) reveals now?

[PurdueBrad]

Current vote tally (as of 729)-

Path12 (5)- Barkeep49 (659), ntndeacon (662), Telle (666), jeheinz72 (675), Anxiety (716)
SnDvls (4)- RendeR (627), Claphamsa (698), Lathum (704), Path12 (727)
no lynch (1)- SnDvls (631)

[Telle]

What a slow boring night.

[Barkeep49]

What a slow boring night.
Tell me about it. I get called into work and I'm sitting here bored.

[Lathum]

Since you guys are bored I'll ask this.

Are you at all worried Path is the brutal wolf?

[Barkeep49]

Since you guys are bored I'll ask this.

Are you at all worried Path is the brutal wolf?
Yes. But a dead wolf is a better wolf.

[Lathum]

Yes. But a dead wolf is a better wolf.

understod, but he could screw things up for us for tonight

[Barkeep49]

understod, but he could screw things up for us for tonight
If path is a wolf, I think it's unlikely we lose this game with the number of players we'd have in the COT.

[Barkeep49]

DOLA - I understand you don't like that answer since you feel like it could be you that dies. I understand that. But we'd be look at 6-2 or or 7-1 after the lynch and many of those 6 or 7 would be in the COT.

[claphamsa]

DOLA - I understand you don't like that answer since you feel like it could be you that dies. I understand that. But we'd be look at 6-2 or or 7-1 after the lynch and many of those 6 or 7 would be in the COT.

just curious, who do you rhink is in the COT?

[Barkeep49]

just curious, who do you rhink is in the COT?
Well I go off of ntn so I have:
Me, Telle from that
From role reveals I have you, Lathum, ntn
Render would be just outside the circle.

[Barkeep49]

Here's hoping that things get real exciting during the last hour.

[claphamsa]

woooo
woooooo
woooo


exciting enough for you?

[Barkeep49]

No, but I do appreciate the effort.

[Lathum]

I do have some information but I am waiting until the deadline to reveal it so the wolves can't alter their gameplan

[Barkeep49]

I do have some information but I am waiting until the deadline to reveal it so the wolves can't alter their gameplan
Sweet!

[Barkeep49]

Let's speculate what that information might be:

He knows someone is a confirmed villager
He has an item
He passed someone an item
With Molly out of town he and saldana have been carrying on their torrid ways

[ntndeacon]

Let's speculate what that information might be:

He knows someone is a confirmed villager
He has an item
He passed someone an item
With Molly out of town he and saldana have been carrying on their torrid ways

My guess is that he saw Santy Claws

[RendeR]

well somebody Do or say SOMETHING, gah.

[SnDvls]

so the wave moved quickly tonight

[SnDvls]

well somebody Do or say SOMETHING, gah.

preforms a little tap dance for RendeR ;)

[SnDvls]

is that good enough for you?

[Alan T]

I'm about to do a reveal if someone doesn't liven things up!